Usd, Us Dollar - Thai Baht Exchange Rate Forecast ?

[55Jay]

There, do you understand now?

you win, i bow my head in shame and awe when i recognise a genius especially...

if he possesses a wealth of no idea

Naam are you not being a little unfair?

If I read you correctly you are saying they lost because they did not move £/$ in one lump some years ago so as not to suffer the slings and arrows of declining rates vs. the baht. The two posters were saying they were shifting current ongoing earned income into baht from the currency they are being paid in (and presumably have no choice in that) - so maybe no actual savings before or were not living in Thailand before to make that decision.

Or is it just because you believe that by hoarding the income and then trying to time the rates is a waste of time?

If I have misunderstood (happens often I am told ) then please explain gently......

I think Naam "bowing his head in shame" (delete the rest) is as close as it's going to get.

----------

Zues, sitting atop Mt. Jomtien, would occassionally look up from his stone tablets, yawn, stretch, inhale deeply from a Pall Mall and gaze in amusement upon the valley of serfs, milling about aimlessly, digging for roots, viagra, and the occasional errant gold coin with bare, tired, weathered hands. Except for 1 clever, stupid serf who was selling fishing equipment although Zues knew for a fact, not one serf knew how to fish. After a belly vibrating grunt and a head shake of disdain, Zues pulled back his mighty arm and hurled a lightning bolt at this poor serf, not enough to kill him mind, and in his thundering voice echoing amongst the clouds of Chon Buri, told the serf in no uncertain terms he was stupid. Zues' fundamentals were, after all, 100% correct.

The bolt grazed the serf's leg, and he objected by explaining his circumstances and plan to Zues, which fell on deaf ears being common knowledge that Zues only paid random and slight attention to serf activity, and attempts to explain or argue logic contrary to Zues own motives, were futile.

Satisfied, Zues returned his bi-focaled gaze unto his vastly more interesting stone tablets and only then noticed an inscribed IPO for Serf and Turf School of Fishing Inc. Feeling embarrassed by his own lack of attention to detail, Zues hurled a powerful and deadly bolt of lighting to smite the poor serf for being so cheeky, and whilst writhing in pain on the ground, Zues mumbled "Sorry" following by a thunderous "You stupid idiot", echoing across the vast Chon Buri valley.

Seeing an opportunity however, Zues immediately purchased 100,000 shares, but was again terribly angry at the higher price getting in now, had he not been previously distracted with the antics of serfs.

Thus, Zues made a pact to never again engage in serf bashing as recreation...... the only exception being at weekends and holidays, when the markets are closed. What day is it?

[Naam]

There, do you understand now?

you win, i bow my head in shame and awe when i recognise a genius especially...

if he possesses a wealth of no idea

Naam are you not being a little unfair?

If I read you correctly you are saying they lost because they did not move £/$ in one lump some years ago so as not to suffer the slings and arrows of declining rates vs. the baht. The two posters were saying they were shifting current ongoing earned income into baht from the currency they are being paid in (and presumably have no choice in that) - so maybe no actual savings before or were not living in Thailand before to make that decision.

Or is it just because you believe that by hoarding the income and then trying to time the rates is a waste of time?

If I have misunderstood (happens often I am told ) then please explain gently......

Topt,

we are not talking converting lump sums but refer clearly to earned income (available in instalments at specific dates), source offshore USD, target domestic THB. of course the

logical approach would then to wait for a favourable exchange rate.

but

-history of the last several years proves clearly that "timing the rates" did not work.

-the same applies to hoarding the income and select best rates.

-trading USD/THB would have worked too but does not apply to earned income except when hoarding offshore and trading in/out.

-averaging would have achieved the best results (USD, GBP, €UR)

the above-mentioned facts are based on history and (as already mentioned) might or might not apply to future time frames. but should better times arrive for the OP then accumulating his dollars offshore and transferring these Dollars when rates are favourable is preferable to the of maintaining a USD account with a Thai bank. the time lag of 24-36 hours is negligible as far

as rate movements are concerned.

any misunderstandings? yes / no (please delete what is not applicable).

[JCauto]

There, do you understand now?

you win, i bow my head in shame and awe when i recognise a genius especially...

if he possesses a wealth of no idea

Naam are you not being a little unfair?

If I read you correctly you are saying they lost because they did not move £/$ in one lump some years ago so as not to suffer the slings and arrows of declining rates vs. the baht. The two posters were saying they were shifting current ongoing earned income into baht from the currency they are being paid in (and presumably have no choice in that) - so maybe no actual savings before or were not living in Thailand before to make that decision.

Or is it just because you believe that by hoarding the income and then trying to time the rates is a waste of time?

If I have misunderstood (happens often I am told ) then please explain gently......

Topt,

we are not talking converting lump sums but refer clearly to earned income (available in instalments at specific dates), source offshore USD, target domestic THB. of course the

logical approach would then to wait for a favourable exchange rate.

but

-history of the last several years proves clearly that "timing the rates" did not work.

-the same applies to hoarding the income and select best rates.

-trading USD/THB would have worked too but does not apply to earned income except when hoarding offshore and trading in/out.

-averaging would have achieved the best results (USD, GBP, €UR)

the above-mentioned facts are based on history and (as already mentioned) might or might not apply to future time frames. but should better times arrive for the OP then accumulating his dollars offshore and transferring these Dollars when rates are favourable is preferable to the of maintaining a USD account with a Thai bank. the time lag of 24-36 hours is negligible as far

as rate movements are concerned.

any misunderstandings? yes / no (please delete what is not applicable).

Wow, this sure has turned complicated from what was (to me at least) a relatively simple situation.

I am not hoarding dollars, trading in FOREX or doing anything other than taking my paycheque (in USD from neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia) and getting it to Thailand. In Thailand, unlike in Laos or Cambodia, I need the money in baht.

I find transferring USD to USD to be simple and easy and only incurs the standard charge of $15 plus a small percentage for any funds over $1,500. I find transferring USD to a THB account at the same bank to incur additional costs due to poorer rates of exchange because it is the bank rate in Thailand or in the bank in the neighbouring countries where the exchange rate is determined. As anyone who lives here knows (or should know), the bank exchange rate for FOREX is lower than the rate you can get at private money changers by around 0.30-0.50 baht/USD. Hence I transfer USD to my USD bank account here whenever I get it, then get my bank to exchange it once I have accumulated enough that I receive the preferential rate at the bank.

The preferential rate I refer to is basically the same as the private money changer next door. They will offer this to me if the funds are around $5,000 to 10,000 or more. If not, then we get the standard bank rate, which sucks. Hope this clarifies things.

[maxman71]

My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

I was mostly with you till you came to the part about "socialism" being the culprit. Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts. Entitlements did go up in recent years, but only as a result of

1) A massive recession (worldwide, no less) caused by unbridled capitalism that led to high unemployment and so unemployment claims.

2) Expenses on Veterans' care as a result of two avoidable wars that were fought more for capitalist reasons rather than State security.

A large swath of the deficit is a result of

1) Two wars

2) Unsustainable tax cuts

3) Bank rescues

4) Stimulus made necessary by the deep recession

High student debt, which I agree is a ticking time bomb, is also a result of following capitalist policies in education.

This is not the thread to go into this discussion, so I won't. However the result of all the above is as you say—you just have the causes wrong.

T

Thakkar--

You stated, "Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts..."

Since the inception of the "Great Society" welfare/entitlement programs in the US back in the 60's, welfare/entitlement spending in the US has increased an average of 8.3% per year since then. 8.3% per year is much more than the average inflation, GDP and population growth during the same period of time. Get your facts straight.

I do however, agree with you concerning some of the points you make above concerning other reasons attributable to the demise of the USD.

However, your attempt to defend socialism is pathetic. Maybe you have not spent much time in the USA lately. The "entitlement mentality" in the US is the worst I've ever seen it. Further, the attitude of a lack of personal responsibility for one's own actions and life in the US has become "popular culture" in the US. "It's someone else's fault"; "I have problems and someone else owes me" are two of the hallmarks of such idiocy.

If you think socialism is the grand answer to society's problems, I have a beachfront condo in Arizona to sell you a steep premium.

[Thakkar]

My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

I was mostly with you till you came to the part about "socialism" being the culprit. Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts. Entitlements did go up in recent years, but only as a result of

1) A massive recession (worldwide, no less) caused by unbridled capitalism that led to high unemployment and so unemployment claims.

2) Expenses on Veterans' care as a result of two avoidable wars that were fought more for capitalist reasons rather than State security.

A large swath of the deficit is a result of

1) Two wars

2) Unsustainable tax cuts

3) Bank rescues

4) Stimulus made necessary by the deep recession

High student debt, which I agree is a ticking time bomb, is also a result of following capitalist policies in education.

This is not the thread to go into this discussion, so I won't. However the result of all the above is as you sayyou just have the causes wrong.

T

Thakkar--

You stated, "Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts..."

Since the inception of the "Great Society" welfare/entitlement programs in the US back in the 60's, welfare/entitlement spending in the US has increased an average of 8.3% per year since then. 8.3% per year is much more than the average inflation, GDP and population growth during the same period of time. Get your facts straight.

I do however, agree with you concerning some of the points you make above concerning other reasons attributable to the demise of the USD.

However, your attempt to defend socialism is pathetic. Maybe you have not spent much time in the USA lately. The "entitlement mentality" in the US is the worst I've ever seen it. Further, the attitude of a lack of personal responsibility for one's own actions and life in the US has become "popular culture" in the US. "It's someone else's fault"; "I have problems and someone else owes me" are two of the hallmarks of such idiocy.

If you think socialism is the grand answer to society's problems, I have a beachfront condo in Arizona to sell you a steep premium.

I'll assume your figure is correct, and it seems about right. What matters is where this increase went. Most of it went towards Medicare and Medicaid, necessitated by an aging population, increase in poverty and higher than inflation increases in medical services and drugs. A good portion of this money went to bolster corporate bottom lines because the health care system in America, in a perversion of Capitalism, is a welfare system for corporations.

Medicare has gone from 3.6% of all federal spending in 1972 to 15.6% in 2011, Medicaid from 2.0% to 7.6%, and unemployment compensation, Supplemental Security Income, and welfare has gone from 7.1% to 11.2%.

Increases in income support have been necessitated by the deep recession that began in Q2, 2007, the cause of which was a combination of corporate fraud, overly loose monetary policy preferred and promoted by Wall St., banking and mortgage excesses, lax enforcement of banking and mortgage regulations (also preferred and promoted by Wall St) and the dismantling (also under Wall St. Prompting), since the '80s, of The Banking Act of 1933, or Glass-Steagall, that had provided effective financial oversight for half a century.

There has also been increased spending on food stamps. A lot of people on food stamps have full time jobs, but these jobs don't pay enough to live on. For example, a large number of Wallmart employes are on food stamps. Seen from this light, food stamps are again another form of corporate welfare because it allows companies to pay less than a living wage to their employees and still have workers who have the strength to work.

Policies that promote equal opportunity, shared responsibility, fair competition and living wages are good for sustained and sustainable economic growth. A reasonable mix of Socialist policies are essential if Capitalism is to be saved from the destructive clutches of corporate plutocracy.

T

[yoshiwara]

My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

I was mostly with you till you came to the part about "socialism" being the culprit. Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts. Entitlements did go up in recent years, but only as a result of

1) A massive recession (worldwide, no less) caused by unbridled capitalism that led to high unemployment and so unemployment claims.

2) Expenses on Veterans' care as a result of two avoidable wars that were fought more for capitalist reasons rather than State security.

A large swath of the deficit is a result of

1) Two wars

2) Unsustainable tax cuts

3) Bank rescues

4) Stimulus made necessary by the deep recession

High student debt, which I agree is a ticking time bomb, is also a result of following capitalist policies in education.

This is not the thread to go into this discussion, so I won't. However the result of all the above is as you sayyou just have the causes wrong.

T

Thakkar--

You stated, "Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts..."

Since the inception of the "Great Society" welfare/entitlement programs in the US back in the 60's, welfare/entitlement spending in the US has increased an average of 8.3% per year since then. 8.3% per year is much more than the average inflation, GDP and population growth during the same period of time. Get your facts straight.

I do however, agree with you concerning some of the points you make above concerning other reasons attributable to the demise of the USD.

However, your attempt to defend socialism is pathetic. Maybe you have not spent much time in the USA lately. The "entitlement mentality" in the US is the worst I've ever seen it. Further, the attitude of a lack of personal responsibility for one's own actions and life in the US has become "popular culture" in the US. "It's someone else's fault"; "I have problems and someone else owes me" are two of the hallmarks of such idiocy.

If you think socialism is the grand answer to society's problems, I have a beachfront condo in Arizona to sell you a steep premium.

A reasonable mix of Socialist policies are essential if Capitalism is to be saved from the destructive clutches of corporate plutocracy.

T

hello! The Mensheviks are back!

[NeverSure]

The US Federal Reserve is printing $85,000,000,000 (87 billion) USD each and every month. Has been for a while and has stated that this will continue until unemployment is below 6.5% (currently at about 7.1 %), which will likely be sometime in 2014.

When the US government is printing money (a lot of money) out of thin air every month what do you think is going to happen to the value of those dollars?

most people fail to understand that nobody in the U.S. "prints" any money. correct is that fictitious money is generated mainly to purchase a part of newly issued sovereign debt to keep prevailing interest rates low which is supposed to stimulate the economy. not soon, but in the long run this will affect the Dollar's value. but in the long run the Dollar's value will be affected by the already existing debt ex those monthly $85bb which are only the icing on the cake.

the markets are well aware of the situation, but there is no panic or an actual flight out of the Dollar for multiple reasons (too many and too complex to elaborate). this and similar critical situations in other countries balance the negative impacts on the Dollar... for now. that exceptions (e.g. Thai Baht) exist goes without saying.

I had to "like" this because I think it is spot on. I would like to emphasize your statement "this and similar critical situations in other countries..."

Value is relative. If the USD or any other currency is weakened for various reasons, other currencies may be weakened the same, less, or more by that country's own circumstances. To focus on just one currency and not compare to what is happening in other countries could take one's eye off the ball.

[yoshiwara]

The US Federal Reserve is printing $85,000,000,000 (87 billion) USD each and every month. Has been for a while and has stated that this will continue until unemployment is below 6.5% (currently at about 7.1 %), which will likely be sometime in 2014.

When the US government is printing money (a lot of money) out of thin air every month what do you think is going to happen to the value of those dollars?

most people fail to understand that nobody in the U.S. "prints" any money. correct is that fictitious money is generated mainly to purchase a part of newly issued sovereign debt to keep prevailing interest rates low which is supposed to stimulate the economy. not soon, but in the long run this will affect the Dollar's value. but in the long run the Dollar's value will be affected by the already existing debt ex those monthly $85bb which are only the icing on the cake.

the markets are well aware of the situation, but there is no panic or an actual flight out of the Dollar for multiple reasons (too many and too complex to elaborate). this and similar critical situations in other countries balance the negative impacts on the Dollar... for now. that exceptions (e.g. Thai Baht) exist goes without saying.

I had to "like" this because I think it is spot on. I would like to emphasize your statement "this and similar critical situations in other countries..."

Value is relative. If the USD or any other currency is weakened for various reasons, other currencies may be weakened the same, less, or more by that country's own circumstances. To focus on just one currency and not compare to what is happening in other countries could take one's eye off the ball.

As per the topic of USD-THB the focus has to be on the comparative relationship between the two. Having a downer (or upper) on the $ does not immediately imply a sale or purchase of the baht. The other thing to notice is that if one is making a choice whether to buy into a currency, one should buy into weakness not strength and set a target figure with which one is comfortable. My opinion is that if with $US one can get 30 baht then be happy with that. So now is OK.

[midas]

The US Federal Reserve is printing $85,000,000,000 (87 billion) USD each and every month. Has been for a while and has stated that this will continue until unemployment is below 6.5% (currently at about 7.1 %), which will likely be sometime in 2014.

When the US government is printing money (a lot of money) out of thin air every month what do you think is going to happen to the value of those dollars?

most people fail to understand that nobody in the U.S. "prints" any money. correct is that fictitious money is generated mainly to purchase a part of newly issued sovereign debt to keep prevailing interest rates low which is supposed to stimulate the economy. not soon, but in the long run this will affect the Dollar's value. but in the long run the Dollar's value will be affected by the already existing debt ex those monthly $85bb which are only the icing on the cake.

the markets are well aware of the situation, but there is no panic or an actual flight out of the Dollar for multiple reasons (too many and too complex to elaborate). this and similar critical situations in other countries balance the negative impacts on the Dollar... for now. that exceptions (e.g. Thai Baht) exist goes without saying.

I had to "like" this because I think it is spot on. I would like to emphasize your statement "this and similar critical situations in other countries..."

Value is relative. If the USD or any other currency is weakened for various reasons, other currencies may be weakened the same, less, or more by that country's own circumstances. To focus on just one currency and not compare to what is happening in other countries could take one's eye off the ball.

As per the topic of USD-THB the focus has to be on the comparative relationship between the two. Having a downer (or upper) on the $ does not immediately imply a sale or purchase of the baht. The other thing to notice is that if one is making a choice whether to buy into a currency, one should buy into weakness not strength and set a target figure with which one is comfortable. My opinion is that if with $US one can get 30 baht then be happy with that. So now is OK.

What is your opinion worth………? Sweet F a

[Naam]

As per the topic of USD-THB the focus has to be on the comparative relationship between the two. Having a downer (or upper) on the $ does not immediately imply a sale or purchase of the baht. The other thing to notice is that if one is making a choice whether to buy into a currency, one should buy into weakness not strength and set a target figure with which one is comfortable. My opinion is that if with $US one can get 30 baht then be happy with that. So now is OK.

What is your opinion worth………? Sweet F a:bah:

he has an opinion. you have none.

[CPH]

As per the topic of USD-THB the focus has to be on the comparative relationship between the two. Having a downer (or upper) on the $ does not immediately imply a sale or purchase of the baht. The other thing to notice is that if one is making a choice whether to buy into a currency, one should buy into weakness not strength and set a target figure with which one is comfortable. My opinion is that if with $US one can get 30 baht then be happy with that. So now is OK.

What is your opinion worth………? Sweet F a:bah:

he has an opinion. you have none.

Recent years it has been best to change USD to THB in the US summer month, mostly because all the financial problems in the world seems to occur in the summertime and all people rush to the USD which strengthens. Now it is because of talk of tapering and China slowdown, but still in the summer.

[badge]

Hello gents

is this the new USDTHB topic thread?

Ive no idea how one searches forum topics or threads or posts, however many years ago I mentioned on a few threads that USDTHB should bottom or at very least bounce from 29.0 +/-

it did so in 2007 and again in 2011 and again this year

perhaps third times the charm

[mccw]

"""The latest new home sales data release out at 10 AM came in well below expectations. New home sales fell 13.4% in July (economists predicted a 2.0% drop), and June's 8.3% growth figure was revised down to 3.6%.

Stocks initially fell in the wake of the release but are starting to bounce back, while bonds and gold are surging. The dollar is dropping fast against the euro and the yen.

Right now, the S&P 500 is up 0.1%, trading at 1658. Meanwhile, gold is up 1.5%, trading at $1391 an ounce, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is at 2.83%, down 5 basis points from yesterday's close.""""

-biz insider app.

[morrobay]

The game changer now is that there is a reversal of foreign investment : Away from and out of the emerging markets. Including BRIC, and back to the good old U.S. of A.

Thats why the baht/$ is going up now and hopefully continuing. And compounding this fact is the Thai economy in recession at same time.