Xi Jinping's First Great Test

[News_Editor]

WASHINGTON — In Washington, D.C. today, the White House was taken over by North Korean terrorists. With the help of a rogue Secret Service agent, the President and his senior advisers have been taken hostage. The terrorists’ leader, blaming the US for his parents’ death during the Korean War, intends to obtain the launch codes for America’s entire nuclear arsenal and detonate the weapons in their silos, obliterating the country.

Of course, this scenario is playing out not at the White House itself, but at the multiplex down the street from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Where movie villains once sported thick Russian accents or exaggerated Middle Eastern features, today’s entertainment antagonists reflect the world’s growing concern over the erratic and impenetrable “Hermit Kingdom†of Northeast Asia. And if the plot of the movie Olympus Has Fallen seems provocative, it’s hardly more provocative than North Korea’s actual actions of late—or more heartbreaking than the incidents of real terror witnessed this week on the streets of Boston.

In the past several months, North Korea’s young and untested new leader, Kim Jong-un, has annulled the 1953 armistice agreement that ended the Korean War—at least the sixth time now in the past two decades that North Korea has formally rejected the armistice. North Korea appears likely to test its medium-range Musudan missiles amid competing intelligence reports that its scientists may have developed a nuclear warhead small enough to place on such a missile. It pulled out of the Kaesong Industrial Park (jointly administered by the North and South), vowed to turn South Korea into “a sea of fire,†and has taken aim at Washington, Los Angeles and Honolulu—even threatening to wipe Colorado Springs off the map.

It’s against this backdrop that US Secretary of State John Kerry embarked on his first Asian tour, reassuring allies in Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing. Despite this display of diplomatic solidarity—and a recent, more muscular demonstration of American bombers and F-22 fighter jets—Kerry’s message was clear: the US has a pivotal role to play, but “China has an enormous ability to make a difference here.â€

Just a month after taking office, this is the first great leadership test for Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Though the US has rarely exerted much pressure on the North Korean regime, China has remained North Korea’s sole ally in the region. It is by far North Korea’s largest trading partner, with trade volume between the two countries more than doubling from 2008 to 2011. “Kim Jong-un’s only constraints,†Brookings Institute Senior Fellow Kongdan Oh observes, “are the fear that the Chinese might someday pull the plug on his economy, and the fear that his hard line military might turn against him.â€

While China feels some historic affinity for North Korea and considers the country a valuable buffer against the US military presence in South Korea and Japan, it also fears a destabilizing influx of North Korean refugees should the regime fall. Even so, China’s leadership has made only half-hearted attempts to influence North Korea’s actions. Despite “crippling†Western sanctions, North Korean elites can be seen checking refrigerators and washing machines onto flights from Beijing to Pyongyang. Meanwhile, Kim’s enormous financial assets—deposited in two Shanghai banks—remain unfrozen.

With each new aggressive act, however, Chinese support for its reckless, saber-rattling neighbor is wearing thin. Kim’s latest nuclear test—just 60 miles from the Chinese border—infuriated and frightened the Chinese public, who’ve taken to calling North Korea’s leader “Fatty Kim the Third†online. President Xi took the unusual step of chastising the Kim regime for “throwing a region and the world into chaos for selfish gain†and signed onto the latest round of UN sanctions.

Now, China must put aside Cold War paranoia and recognize that the best way to reassert control in its own backyard is by bringing North Korea back to the negotiating table. If China is truly an emerging great power, it should restart the decade-old Six-Party Talks between China, the US, Japan, Russia, North and South Korea. If Pyongyang resists, Xi must be willing to completely cut off North Korea’s lifeline.

And what should the US do?

First, the US shouldn’t even consider relaxing our regional defenses. Our allies depend on us; and Japan and South Korea are rightly nervous about any breakdowns in the American nuclear umbrella.

Second, Washington should work with China to offer Kim a way out. Having blundered into a geopolitical game of chicken he’s unequipped to win, experts suspect Kim is searching for a way to save face. The US should gladly provide him that—not through food aid of the sort that was so popular yet ineffective throughout Kim’s father’s similar bluffs in the 1990’s, but by offering the assurance Pyongyang desperately seeks: that the US will not invade if the regime abandons its nuclear ambitions.

Third, if North Korea maintains its aggressive posture, the US should make clear it will bring a swift and disproportionate response. As STRATCOM commander Gen. C. Robert Kehler notes, we should make clear that North Korea “will not achieve their goals, and will pay an extraordinary price if they try.†Or, in the unforgettable words of Sean Connery in The Untouchables, “He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital—you send one of his to the morgue! That’s the Chicago Way.â€

Ultimately, Kim must choose between the Chicago Way and the Chinese Way. For its part, China must recognize, as the analyst Paul Haenle says, that “The continuing narrative that North Korea defies China, one of the North’s only allies, at every turn . . . cuts across Beijing’s goals of consolidated regional influence and eventual global great power status.â€

It’s been 60 years since an uneasy truce brought an end to the shooting war on the Korean Peninsula. In that time, Olympus hasn’t fallen—but China has risen. It’s time for the world’s largest country to act like it, and embrace its responsibilities on the global stage.

Stanley Weiss is founding chairman of Business Executives for National Security, a non-partisan organization of senior executives who contribute their expertise in the best practices of business to strengthen the nation’s security. The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Irrawaddy.

Source: Irrawaddy.org

[tombkk]

Moved to World News.

[Publicus]

I see the Irrawaddy is dredging the bottom of the river to get its material about N Korea.

Beijing will never stop or substantially reduce its flow of food, oil etc to N Korea. The OP completely ignores that Beijing's worst nightmare, second only to another war on the peninsula, is the collapse of the N Korean regime. A collapse would throw all of NE Asia into a state of wild chaos that itself might start another war there.

The OP is on Mars when he suggests the U.S. do what it cannot do, i.e., pledge never to invade or attack N Korea. We see that the boy Kim Jong Un is wild and reckless, talking of a first strike of nuclear weapons. The United States must always retain its edge of a possible pre-emptive strike against the North. If Kim goes even more crazy and indicates an attack against the South is imminent, the U.S. may want or need to make a pre-emptive strike which need not necessarily be a nuclear one.

And the OP ignores the present reality on the ground in NE Asia (or he's unaware of it). That is, Beijing has become so absolutely helpless in trying to deal with Pyongyang that the highly respected Indian diplomat, the Joint Secretary and Head of East Asian Affairs, Dr Gautam Bambawale traveled last week to Pyongyang and then to Beijing. It's believed the United States, S Korea and Japan quietly requested Bambawale to be in NE Asia at the same time U.S. SecState John Kerry was making the rounds there. The OP fails to recognize or acknowledge that India has become the new interlocutor concerning N Korea, and that this unprecedented development has occurred because Beijing long since has lost both control of and influence in Pyongyang.

The OP needs to be told his ship is sinking and he needs to abandon it despite the fact it hasn't any life jackets or boats. The OP is pathetically behind the events and realities of Pyongyang's behaviors and the present circumstances in NE Asia.

[ZhouZhou]

First, the US shouldn’t even consider relaxing our regional defenses. Our allies depend on us ...

not news just an opinion piece and not a non-partisan one as suggested.

What they say in China?

China's Xinhua news agency said in a commentary that Washington had itself been "fanning the flames" on the Korean peninsula with its shows of force.

"It keeps sending more fighters, bombers and missile-defence ships to the waters of East Asia and carrying out massive military drills with Asian allies in a dramatic display of pre-emptive power," it said.

Chinese state television quoted Premier Li Keqiang as telling Kerry that rising tensions on the Korean peninsula were in nobody's interests ...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/13/uk-korea-north-idUKBRE93803Z20130413

[Publicus]

Beijing's real interest in the escalating tensions and military activity in NE Asia is that S Korea and Japan are joining more strongly with the United States militarily. Beijing is threatened by this. Beijing also is upset to see the U.S. increasing its forward military posture in NE Asia, a place Beijing is focused on as its necessary sphere of influence if it is to become a regional power. The more strong the U.S. military posture is in NE Asia, the more threatened Beijing feels in its Grand Design to dominate the whole of the East Asia region. That's Beijing's main beef in all this.

Beijing knows that the U.S. increased forward military posture in NE Asia is the direct result of Pyongyang's new belligerence and bellicosity which threatens first use of nuclear weapons of mass destruction. However, Beijing is powerless in Pyongyang so it must deal directly with the U.S., accusing it of doing exactly what the U.S. is doing, i.e., increasing the strength of its forward military posture in NE Asia.

Now, as a result of Beijing's weakness, a new factor has introduced itself into NE Asia - India. The PRChinese hate India and have their own border claims against India, claims that caused the PRC to start a war on the northern India border in 1962. India's unprecedented involvement in the NE Asia region completes the "Democracy Diamond" strategic alignment advanced by Japanese PM Shinzo Abe - a regional Democracy Diamond from Japan to Hawaii to Australia to India.

Meanwhile, Xi Jinping is still trying to figure out which way is up.

[Ulysses G.]

"It keeps sending more fighters, bombers and missile-defence ships to the waters of East Asia and carrying out massive military drills with Asian allies in a dramatic display of pre-emptive power," it said.

That's what happens when someone threatens you with a nuclear war.

[ZhouZhou]

"It keeps sending more fighters, bombers and missile-defence ships to the waters of East Asia and carrying out massive military drills with Asian allies in a dramatic display of pre-emptive power," it said.

That's what happens when someone threatens you with a nuclear war.

that is a chicken egg issue.

Actually not even that. Imagine the US would had never moved to Korea.

[Publicus]

"It keeps sending more fighters, bombers and missile-defence ships to the waters of East Asia and carrying out massive military drills with Asian allies in a dramatic display of pre-emptive power," it said.

That's what happens when someone threatens you with a nuclear war.

that is a chicken egg issue.

Actually not even that. Imagine the US would had never moved to Korea.

You fail repeatedly to recognize the facts of history.

You will not acknowledge that the present problems on the Korean peninsula began at the end on the Second World War when troops of the Soviet Union advanced onto the Korean peninsula. Some U.S. and allied military forces were rushed to the peninsula to form a barrier line to stop the Soviet advance. The existence of a North Korea and a South Korea is the direct outcome of this Soviet aggression.

The North invaded the South on June 23, 1950, which precipitated the Korean Conflict, which ended in an armistice in 1953.

I am well aware that in N Korea and in the CCP-PRC they teach the propaganda that the United States occupied the Korean peninsula at the conclusion of World War II, and that the United States began the Korean Conflict in 1950 by initiating an invasion of N Korea. This is entirely Pyongyang and Beijing propaganda, lies.

If you are repeatedly going to recite N Korean and Beijing propaganda lies at TVF, you are going to continue to embarrass and discredit yourself, severely.

[ZhouZhou]

"It keeps sending more fighters, bombers and missile-defence ships to the waters of East Asia and carrying out massive military drills with Asian allies in a dramatic display of pre-emptive power," it said.

That's what happens when someone threatens you with a nuclear war.

that is a chicken egg issue.

Actually not even that. Imagine the US would had never moved to Korea.

You fail repeatedly to recognize the facts of history.

You will not acknowledge that the present problems on the Korean peninsula began at the end on the Second World War when troops of the Soviet Union advanced onto the Korean peninsula. Some U.S. and allied military forces were rushed to the peninsula to form a barrier line to stop the Soviet advance. The existence of a North Korea and a South Korea is the direct outcome of this Soviet aggression.

The North invaded the South on June 23, 1950, which precipitated the Korean Conflict, which ended in an armistice in 1953.

I am well aware that in N Korea and in the CCP-PRC they teach the propaganda that the United States occupied the Korean peninsula at the conclusion of World War II, and that the United States began the Korean Conflict in 1950 by initiating an invasion of N Korea. This is entirely Pyongyang and Beijing propaganda, lies.

If you are repeatedly going to recite N Korean and Beijing propaganda lies at TVF, you are going to continue to embarrass and discredit yourself, severely.

The Russian were on war with Japan.

In 1950 there were no Russians in Korea. they already left 2 years before.

The US supported a dictator like Park Chung-hee who was a former officer of the Imperial Japanese Army.

[chuckd]

That's what happens when someone threatens you with a nuclear war.That's what happens when someone threatens you with a nuclear war.

that is a chicken egg issue.

Actually not even that. Imagine the US would had never moved to Korea.

You fail repeatedly to recognize the facts of history.

You will not acknowledge that the present problems on the Korean peninsula began at the end on the Second World War when troops of the Soviet Union advanced onto the Korean peninsula. Some U.S. and allied military forces were rushed to the peninsula to form a barrier line to stop the Soviet advance. The existence of a North Korea and a South Korea is the direct outcome of this Soviet aggression.

The North invaded the South on June 23, 1950, which precipitated the Korean Conflict, which ended in an armistice in 1953.

I am well aware that in N Korea and in the CCP-PRC they teach the propaganda that the United States occupied the Korean peninsula at the conclusion of World War II, and that the United States began the Korean Conflict in 1950 by initiating an invasion of N Korea. This is entirely Pyongyang and Beijing propaganda, lies.

If you are repeatedly going to recite N Korean and Beijing propaganda lies at TVF, you are going to continue to embarrass and discredit yourself, severely.

The Russian were on war with Japan.

In 1950 there were no Russians in Korea. they already left 2 years before.

The US supported a dictator like Park Chung-hee who was a former officer of the Imperial Japanese Army.

The Russians declared war on Japan on 8 August 1945. This was two days AFTER the first nuclear bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, thereby effectively ending WWII.

Russia was a little late to the party but they made up for it by invading Japanese held Manchuria the same day they declared war on Japan.

If you will take time to absorb what Publicus just posted you will note he said the Russians advanced on the Korean peninsula at the end of WWII, 1945, which is factually correct. That is what caused the separation of North and South.

He never made the claim the Russians invaded the South in 1950. He said the North Koreans invaded South Korea in 1950, which is historically correct.

Remember...Google is your friend.

http://www.historyonthenet.com/Chronology/timelinewwii.htm

[ZhouZhou]

that is a chicken egg issue.

Actually not even that. Imagine the US would had never moved to Korea.

You fail repeatedly to recognize the facts of history.

You will not acknowledge that the present problems on the Korean peninsula began at the end on the Second World War when troops of the Soviet Union advanced onto the Korean peninsula. Some U.S. and allied military forces were rushed to the peninsula to form a barrier line to stop the Soviet advance. The existence of a North Korea and a South Korea is the direct outcome of this Soviet aggression.

The North invaded the South on June 23, 1950, which precipitated the Korean Conflict, which ended in an armistice in 1953.

I am well aware that in N Korea and in the CCP-PRC they teach the propaganda that the United States occupied the Korean peninsula at the conclusion of World War II, and that the United States began the Korean Conflict in 1950 by initiating an invasion of N Korea. This is entirely Pyongyang and Beijing propaganda, lies.

If you are repeatedly going to recite N Korean and Beijing propaganda lies at TVF, you are going to continue to embarrass and discredit yourself, severely.

The Russian were on war with Japan.

In 1950 there were no Russians in Korea. they already left 2 years before.

The US supported a dictator like Park Chung-hee who was a former officer of the Imperial Japanese Army.

The Russians declared war on Japan on 8 August 1945. This was two days AFTER the first nuclear bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, thereby effectively ending WWII.

Russia was a little late to the party but they made up for it by invading Japanese held Manchuria the same day they declared war on Japan.

If you will take time to absorb what Publicus just posted you will note he said the Russians advanced on the Korean peninsula at the end of WWII, 1945, which is factually correct. That is what caused the separation of North and South.

He never made the claim the Russians invaded the South in 1950. He said the North Koreans invaded South Korea in 1950, which is historically correct.

Remember...Google is your friend.

http://www.historyonthenet.com/Chronology/timelinewwii.htm

Yes. Correct the USA used atomic bombs in East Asia. One of the reasons why Korea and also China feels threatened by the massive presence of US military.

North Korean are Korean and in 1950 there were no Russian occupation forces in Korea. without the USA Korea would not be a divided country.

that is all i am saying.

[maidu]

If the US bombs N.Korea, it won't do it with nuclear weapons. Even if the N.Koreans would be so imbicilic to try and launch nukes, the US wouldn't retaliate in kind. The US has plenty of weaponry and delivery systems to render N.Korean military targets a smoldering twist of steel and sandbags within hours of any serious conflict. The repercussions from global opinion will preclude the US going nuclear. Indeed, the US has many folks working diligently to phase out nuclear weapons from all countries, including the US itself. It has even given substantial funds to Russia (and its former satellite states) to try and help them keep a lid on their widespread nuke arsenals from cold war times.

[Credo]

ZhouZhou, you can't answer about the invasion? Instead you try to deflect and blame it on the US?

Oh, and nuclear weapons would most likely not be used. They would just not be the most effective method of dealing with NK. There is not a lot of infrastructure to knock out. It's a very rural country and there are not large population centers that present a danger.

[F430murci]

ZhouZhou, you can't answer about the invasion? Instead you try to deflect and blame it on the US?

Oh, and nuclear weapons would most likely not be used. They would just not be the most effective method of dealing with NK. There is not a lot of infrastructure to knock out. It's a very rural country and there are not large population centers that present a danger.

Yep, just another whack-a-doodle educated by resentment and the Internet and who refuses to accept reality and see things as they really are. The Internet, better suited for entertainment and leisure activity, now provides a medium for uneducated rhetoric whereas no one would lend an ear before. Apparently becomes difficult for some to differentiate the truth from a fiction that is simply consistent with an inner belief system. Interesting how some can integrate back into the world and function as a productive member of the world no matter what happened 50, 100 or a 1,000 years ago. Some, however, elect to hang on to resentment, hate and blame everyone and everything for their shortcomings when the answer usually lies within. Interesting to see here as this forum is such an eclectic mix of different cultures and nationalities.

[maidu]

ZhouZhou, you can't answer about the invasion? Instead you try to deflect and blame it on the US?

Oh, and nuclear weapons would most likely not be used. They would just not be the most effective method of dealing with NK. There is not a lot of infrastructure to knock out. It's a very rural country and there are not large population centers that present a danger.

First off, N.Korea's nuclear capability is anemic at best. Of course, nuke threats are not something to be trifled with. Yet even so, the US in not going to get drawn in to that dangerous game, nor drawn down to the immature level at which N.Korea leaders conduct themselves. Any armed conflict with N.Koreans will almost entirely affect the Korean peninsula. The US won't want to pour kerosene on the flames, started by a sucker punch by the likes of tubbo king Kim Un.

[ZhouZhou]

ZhouZhou, you can't answer about the invasion? Instead you try to deflect and blame it on the US?

Oh, and nuclear weapons would most likely not be used. They would just not be the most effective method of dealing with NK. There is not a lot of infrastructure to knock out. It's a very rural country and there are not large population centers that present a danger.

about what "invasion"? The Russians? someone said also "occupation". okay. The point is that the Russians left in 1948/49. and they share at least a border with Korea.

If the reason for the US was the Russians in Korea, that reason wasn't there anymore. The US. didn't leave. In the Korean POV an invasion and occupation.

In the first few decades of the existence of the Republic of Korea there wasn't much freedom and democracy to defend. it was a dictatorial ruled state.

older farang told me that years ago it could happen that if you are a white face and move around Korea some older Korean might stop and spit on you and scold you. In South Korea. Because they think the white foreigner brought the war and the division over them. might be not the case anymore cause the aren't many anymore of that generation that lived trough the war.

Edited April 21, 2013 by ZhouZhou

[Payboy]

Xi Jinping

Dunno if he'll be as successful at this new job as he was with his previous stint at Chiangmai zoo.

[Credo]

ZhouZhou, you can't answer about the invasion? Instead you try to deflect and blame it on the US?

Oh, and nuclear weapons would most likely not be used. They would just not be the most effective method of dealing with NK. There is not a lot of infrastructure to knock out. It's a very rural country and there are not large population centers that present a danger.

about what "invasion"? The Russians? someone said also "occupation". okay. The point is that the Russians left in 1948/49. and they share at least a border with Korea.

If the reason for the US was the Russians in Korea, that reason wasn't there anymore. The US. didn't leave. In the Korean POV an invasion and occupation.

In the first few decades of the existence of the Republic of Korea there wasn't much freedom and democracy to defend. it was a dictatorial ruled state.

older farang told me that years ago it could happen that if you are a white face and move around Korea some older Korean might stop and spit on you and scold you. In South Korea. Because they think the white foreigner brought the war and the division over them. might be not the case anymore cause the aren't many anymore of that generation that lived trough the war.

Wow, still can't admit to facts. More obfuscation and deflection.

[ZhouZhou]

ZhouZhou, you can't answer about the invasion? Instead you try to deflect and blame it on the US?

Oh, and nuclear weapons would most likely not be used. They would just not be the most effective method of dealing with NK. There is not a lot of infrastructure to knock out. It's a very rural country and there are not large population centers that present a danger.

First off, N.Korea's nuclear capability is anemic at best. Of course, nuke threats are not something to be trifled with. Yet even so, the US in not going to get drawn in to that dangerous game, nor drawn down to the immature level at which N.Korea leaders conduct themselves. Any armed conflict with N.Koreans will almost entirely affect the Korean peninsula. The US won't want to pour kerosene on the flames, started by a sucker punch by the likes of tubbo king Kim Un.

The US pured tons of napalm over every north korean city already. destroyed them. burned them down. used biological weapons as well.

didn't have much impact, at least not that impact believers in moral bombing hoped for.

the current game of increasing provocation is called the "playbook"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324100904578400833997420280.html?KEYWORDS=North+Korea

[ZhouZhou]

ZhouZhou, you can't answer about the invasion? Instead you try to deflect and blame it on the US?

Oh, and nuclear weapons would most likely not be used. They would just not be the most effective method of dealing with NK. There is not a lot of infrastructure to knock out. It's a very rural country and there are not large population centers that present a danger.

about what "invasion"? The Russians? someone said also "occupation". okay. The point is that the Russians left in 1948/49. and they share at least a border with Korea.

If the reason for the US was the Russians in Korea, that reason wasn't there anymore. The US. didn't leave. In the Korean POV an invasion and occupation.

In the first few decades of the existence of the Republic of Korea there wasn't much freedom and democracy to defend. it was a dictatorial ruled state.

older farang told me that years ago it could happen that if you are a white face and move around Korea some older Korean might stop and spit on you and scold you. In South Korea. Because they think the white foreigner brought the war and the division over them. might be not the case anymore cause the aren't many anymore of that generation that lived trough the war.

Wow, still can't admit to facts. More obfuscation and deflection.

That is the Korean POV. Argue with them. but it is true they don't think about it in the way like you were told by the institution in your country.

[F430murci]

ZhouZhou, you can't answer about the invasion? Instead you try to deflect and blame it on the US?

Oh, and nuclear weapons would most likely not be used. They would just not be the most effective method of dealing with NK. There is not a lot of infrastructure to knock out. It's a very rural country and there are not large population centers that present a danger.

about what "invasion"? The Russians? someone said also "occupation". okay. The point is that the Russians left in 1948/49. and they share at least a border with Korea.

If the reason for the US was the Russians in Korea, that reason wasn't there anymore. The US. didn't leave. In the Korean POV an invasion and occupation.

In the first few decades of the existence of the Republic of Korea there wasn't much freedom and democracy to defend. it was a dictatorial ruled state.

older farang told me that years ago it could happen that if you are a white face and move around Korea some older Korean might stop and spit on you and scold you. In South Korea. Because they think the white foreigner brought the war and the division over them. might be not the case anymore cause the aren't many anymore of that generation that lived trough the war.

Wow, still can't admit to facts. More obfuscation and deflection.

That is the Korean POV. Argue with them. but it is true they don't think about it in the way like you were told by the institution in your country.

And NK "institutions" tell their people the truth.

[ZhouZhou]

That is the Korean POV. Argue with them. but it is true they don't think about it in the way like you were told by the institution in your country.

And NK "institutions" tell their people the truth.

what truth? that the US protects them from the Russians?

[geriatrickid]

Although the North may have limited nuclear weapon capabilities, all it takes is one detonation to render parts of the South uninhabitable for a long time and to create a humanitarian crisis not seen since the end of WWII. This is why there is concern, although the South Korean population appears to be in a state of denial.The US would not use a nuclear device if there was going to be collateral damage to the South. The USA and South Korea's allies could not sustain the billions of $$ to clean up the resulting mess.

The Chinese government policy is one of the reasons for the crisis and while it has so far played to China's advantage forcing Japan and South Korea to divert large sums of money to their respective defense instead of investing in the industrial and social services sectors, thereby blunting their respective competitive edge against China, the economic chickens are coming home to roost. It is dawning on China which is heavily dependant upon foreign export markets and which holds enormous investments around the world, that a raging North Korea will have dire consequences on the shakey Chinese economy. In China, money talks and it's talking now. It's not how to avoid a humanitarian crisis or war, but how to keep China protected from the potential economic fallout. As dependant upon Chinese money and exports many western countries are, a western economic boycott would cause the Chinese economy to collapse.

[ZhouZhou]

Although the North may have limited nuclear weapon capabilities, all it takes is one detonation to render parts of the South uninhabitable for a long time and to create a humanitarian crisis not seen since the end of WWII. This is why there is concern, although the South Korean population appears to be in a state of denial.The US would not use a nuclear device if there was going to be collateral damage to the South. The USA and South Korea's allies could not sustain the billions of $$ to clean up the resulting mess.

The Chinese government policy is one of the reasons for the crisis and while it has so far played to China's advantage forcing Japan and South Korea to divert large sums of money to their respective defense instead of investing in the industrial and social services sectors, thereby blunting their respective competitive edge against China, the economic chickens are coming home to roost. It is dawning on China which is heavily dependant upon foreign export markets and which holds enormous investments around the world, that a raging North Korea will have dire consequences on the shakey Chinese economy. In China, money talks and it's talking now. It's not how to avoid a humanitarian crisis or war, but how to keep China protected from the potential economic fallout. As dependant upon Chinese money and exports many western countries are, a western economic boycott would cause the Chinese economy to collapse.

China isn't responsible for the mess nor is it economy anywhere near to collapse or to blame for that japan hasn't enough money to spend for the social services sectors.

A western economic boycott on China? i think no western country could nor would consider this seriously.

[Publicus]

Although the North may have limited nuclear weapon capabilities, all it takes is one detonation to render parts of the South uninhabitable for a long time and to create a humanitarian crisis not seen since the end of WWII. This is why there is concern, although the South Korean population appears to be in a state of denial.The US would not use a nuclear device if there was going to be collateral damage to the South. The USA and South Korea's allies could not sustain the billions of $$ to clean up the resulting mess.

The Chinese government policy is one of the reasons for the crisis and while it has so far played to China's advantage forcing Japan and South Korea to divert large sums of money to their respective defense instead of investing in the industrial and social services sectors, thereby blunting their respective competitive edge against China, the economic chickens are coming home to roost. It is dawning on China which is heavily dependant upon foreign export markets and which holds enormous investments around the world, that a raging North Korea will have dire consequences on the shakey Chinese economy. In China, money talks and it's talking now. It's not how to avoid a humanitarian crisis or war, but how to keep China protected from the potential economic fallout. As dependant upon Chinese money and exports many western countries are, a western economic boycott would cause the Chinese economy to collapse.

China isn't responsible for the mess nor is it economy anywhere near to collapse or to blame for that japan hasn't enough money to spend for the social services sectors.

A western economic boycott on China? i think no western country could nor would consider this seriously.

Thank you Beijing for causing an extraordinary amount of the new wealth in E Asia and SE Asia to be diverted into a new Asian arms race. East Asians and SE Asians now are spending more on defense than all of Europe.

East vs East - Asia's new arms race

It's not just North Korea. The whole region is turning new wealth into weaponry

Spect_East_Vs_East

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8880761/asias-arms-race/

[ZhouZhou]

Although the North may have limited nuclear weapon capabilities, all it takes is one detonation to render parts of the South uninhabitable for a long time and to create a humanitarian crisis not seen since the end of WWII. This is why there is concern, although the South Korean population appears to be in a state of denial.The US would not use a nuclear device if there was going to be collateral damage to the South. The USA and South Korea's allies could not sustain the billions of $$ to clean up the resulting mess.

The Chinese government policy is one of the reasons for the crisis and while it has so far played to China's advantage forcing Japan and South Korea to divert large sums of money to their respective defense instead of investing in the industrial and social services sectors, thereby blunting their respective competitive edge against China, the economic chickens are coming home to roost. It is dawning on China which is heavily dependant upon foreign export markets and which holds enormous investments around the world, that a raging North Korea will have dire consequences on the shakey Chinese economy. In China, money talks and it's talking now. It's not how to avoid a humanitarian crisis or war, but how to keep China protected from the potential economic fallout. As dependant upon Chinese money and exports many western countries are, a western economic boycott would cause the Chinese economy to collapse.

China isn't responsible for the mess nor is it economy anywhere near to collapse or to blame for that japan hasn't enough money to spend for the social services sectors.

A western economic boycott on China? i think no western country could nor would consider this seriously.

Thank you Beijing for causing an extraordinary amount of the new wealth in E Asia and SE Asia to be diverted into a new Asian arms race. East Asians and SE Asians now are spending more on defense than all of Europe.

East vs East - Asia's new arms race

It's not just North Korea. The whole region is turning new wealth into weaponry

Spect_East_Vs_East

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8880761/asias-arms-race/

from the article:

The biggest arms importers over the last five years are all in Asia: India, China, Pakistan, South Korea and Singapore.

Impressive that Singapore made it on the top 5 list. Japan not. so japan would probably have some Yen left to spend on the social service system

but not so surprised about India, China, Pakistan. just count how many people live there and compare that with Europe. so nothing to wonder that they have also a big military budget.

if they all import so someone must produce that arms. guess these someones are not up for an economic boycott of a good customer.

With South Korea spending habits i am also not surprised. even if its a smaller nation than the top 3. their military is almost equally nuts like those in North Korea.

another line.

America’s role as the policeman of Asia, established since the second world war, seems to be diminishing.

lets hope for that. i don't mind if they go and would not miss them. what that article misses is to call them responsible for that arm race. same as geriatrikid blamed China we should actually blame the well equipped well armed out of place policeman from the other side of the ocean that the poor Asian countries spend so much on weapon instead on milk for kittens.

Publicus, your opinions coming from a certain school of thought i don't subscribe but they are at least substantiated. what you think about that "a western economic boycott would cause the Chinese economy to collapse." idea? what kind of anti globalist statement is that?

What happens to the American good old hatred of the Japanese, specially if they got now that PM Shinzoō Abe? Some have now developed a soft spot for them and a concerned about their social service system.

I am not a friend of boycotts and sanction made by governments. (an individual consumer boycott is something else. that would be up to the people to join.)

Edited April 21, 2013 by ZhouZhou

[maidu]

Any armed eruption in the Koreas would be losing proposition for all players. Nothing good could come of it. As Publicus mentioned, the clean-up costs would fall mostly on the US, for both sides, as the US is most often the cleaner-upper of such messes, regardless of the extent of their prior involvement. GK made a good point of how, with all this saber rattling, much resources are put towards arms and defense. Wouldn't it be cool if such resources could instead be put toward habitat enhancement (for people and all other species) or alternative energy or outer space exploration?! N.Korea needs a flower power movement. Perhaps someone could put LSD in their drinking water supplies, so at least the younger generation could find ways to think outside the iron box their elders have put their minds in. Ok, I jest (about the LSD) but really, what a sad and destructive mental state their leaders are stuck in. They make suicidal cult leaders (Jim Jones or the Dravidians come to mind) look benign in comparison.

It's also a reflection of over-population. If you put an on-going breeding species on a finite space (the Earth), then eventually, they will increasingly run out of habitable space. If you don't believe me, try raising rats in a closed room. When that species gets too saturated and low on resources (N.Koreans are starving) then weird things are imminent. It might be disease (Africa), it might be senseless killing one another (Middle East), or hassling over resources (China and all its maritime neighbors), or it might be saber rattling, as is happening from N.Korea.

[Publicus]

@ZhouZhou

The PRC recently joined the top five arms EXPORTERS of the world. Yes the U.S. and countries such as France are in the top five of arms exporters, but we export to democracies that are allies such as Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and the like. The CCP-PRC exports arms to dictatorships that can protect the land Beijing is ruthlessly exploiting for use of natural resources in the PRC.

Japan? Americans have a radically different attitude than do Old World countries such as China. We like to forgive and forget. If we can't forget, then we try to forgive. World War II is long done and over with. We forgive but we certainly don't forget. Conversely, Old World countries have battled one another for thousands of years. You people hold grudges - you hold grudges for hundreds of years and you hold the grudges deeply. The Chinese hate India, Japan, Vietnam - the list is very long, to include most recently in history, the United States. The CCP daily indoctrinates the PRChinese sheeple against the United States as the number one country to destroy, to which the PRChinese sheeple say, "The USA is baaad."

Japan?? Here's a reminder of how insanely the Chinese detest the Japanese and Japan: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/17/world/asia/china-japan-islands-dispute/index.html?eref=edition

No one has to boycott the entire PRC economy because it's inevitably falling apart by itself: Has China's Economy Hit a Dead End? http://www.cnbc.com/id/100640805

Also, I've noticed over time at TVF that you appear to have excellent English reading comprehension, yet while your written English has good learned vocabulary, it appears to be broken by some sentence fragments as well as fragmented clauses, grammatical non sequiturs etc. As an English teacher abroad for 13 years, I find this inconsistency to be curious - more than curious - that your English reading comprehension should be so good yet your writing appears to be so limited. Very curious indeed.

I know PRChinese dissidents in the PRC who post to "Discussion Boards" in the PRC somewhat like this one. I want to advise you there are always those at the Discussion Boards that post the CCP line only. As you may or may not know, the PRChinese dissidents call such posters a half-yuan, referring of course to the name of the PRC currency. I'm sure you don't know the term, as 99.9% of TVF readers don't know the term. It means a 50-cent man.

Edited April 22, 2013 by Publicus

[maidu]

It's ironic - for all the hate the Chinese are encouraged to project towards Japan for atrocities before and during WWII

Fersure ugly things happened in that bloodiest of centuries, but the fact remains; Far more Chinese were killed by their fellow Chinese during the mid-20th century, than any 'foreign' power caused.

[Publicus]

As of last night 20 are dead and more than 100 affected. The WHO team continues on the case, saying not every deceased or infected person had exposure to poultry and that the number of persons infected continues to increase. This thing is still not under control.


"China: H7N9 Bird Flu Death Toll Hits 20 but Source Still Unknown"

"More than 100 cases confirmed as WHO warns of more infections to come"

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/459889/20130422/h7n9-bird-flu-cases-china-20-dead.htm

Edited April 23, 2013 by Publicus