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High Risk Of More Coups In Thailand, Study Says


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Just putting on a uniform and learning how to point and shoot does not qualify as a military.

I was U.S.M.C. for 20 years, with 16 of that being in Recon/Force Recon. Told my wife once that I could take one company of Force Recon, 3 Seal teams, and take over this country in 48 hours or less.

Thai haven't fought a real war since the drove the Burmese out, and they will quickly tell you they have never been "invaded" since! Bit in WWII they simply went "belly up" and let Japan walk in and take over without a shot being fired.

Oh, they had a little "spat" with Lao, where a company of Thai soldiers crossed the border and occupied a small town and raised their flag, but that night about two dozen well armed Lao drove them out and chased their asses back across the border. Some idiots talk about wanting to go to war with Cambodia over the temple. If that happened, I'm putting all my money on the Cambodians.

Edited by Just1Voice
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Thai Society,Thai culture and the dominant religion will not remotely come close to a Democracy comparable to Western civilization
In a hierchial society of face, where things are forgotten in a heartbeat, morals are completely different, people don't say what they mean, people are scared to say what they mean.
And manipulation of the masses is so easy with soap operas, 500 baht notes and cheap tabloid tactics to herd the mindless poor, then how can a democracy truly work here?
A secular nation that has limited understandings on what goes on outside its own walls, nor the wanted desire to change because it already assumes itself to be the best.
In reality,generations of rich elite came from China, and are the true governors of Chailand now -
Therefore, Thailand is about as democratic as China.

Both parties use the word democratic like its the latest fashionable trend, there is no political agenda in Thailand, its just money and power and handouts and payoffs, Coups happen when the spread fails to satisfy the greed, the people are merely spectators paying to watch a game they have no control over.

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One problem for a future coup is that most soldiers come from Esaan and they are red shirts. During the recent BMA election the polloing stations close to the army camps reported a 70% vote for PT. In 2006 there was no red shirts. Maybe this time the soldiers will not do what the generals order. Another difference is that PT have appointed their own people into the MoD and RTA.

Talk is cheap and that is all it is. They no longer command the unthinking minds of the red shirts. The red shirts can't even agree among them selves as to what they want. Look at their last attempt to disrupt a Dem rally in Yasothon many of them refused. They asked for 100,000 protesters in Bangkok and got a handful of them out of a population of 10 to 15 million.

The farce they backed in Bangkok in 2010 can never happen again. Bus loads of armed protestors will now be turned back.It is a fallacy that the army will step in on the PTP as they are not making moves yet to strip the king of any of his powers. Now the PTP are like howling dogs with out teeth.

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The prospect of coup is taken far too lightly. Every time the military has seized power they have enriched themselves and damaged civilian society. A military coup is a destructive and negative step in any country. I hope that it never happens again in Thailand.

And, just what is wrong with the current government? It won the election by a substantial majority. It defeated the previous government. That is called democracy. Why is there so much criticism of the Thaksin led government? Corruption, any more or less under the previous government? Inefficiency? I could point out that the Thai economy, by all traditional measures, is doing well. Not sure how much of this can be attributed to the government, but there it is.

A Thaksin led government, the sky is not yet falling.

Completely wrong.

Now I've heard that the military-appointed government was inefficient & didn't do much for the country (which has some truth). But supposedly enriching themselves? No evidence of that at all. In fact the regime they replaced was the self-enrichment group.

You may be deliberately blind to Thaksin's corruption, which was far worse than any previous government. Are you also blind to his overtly dictatorial way of 'governing'? It continues to this day with his party having one opinion & one only. His. PTP then just do what they're told.

The risk of another coup will fall dramatically when someone has the guts to shut him up - in jail or otherwise.

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Thai Society,Thai culture and the dominant religion will not remotely come close to a Democracy comparable to Western civilization

In a hierchial society of face, where things are forgotten in a heartbeat, morals are completely different, people don't say what they mean, people are scared to say what they mean.

And manipulation of the masses is so easy with soap operas, 500 baht notes and cheap tabloid tactics to herd the mindless poor, then how can a democracy truly work here?

A secular nation that has limited understandings on what goes on outside its own walls, nor the wanted desire to change because it already assumes itself to be the best.

In reality,generations of rich elite came from China, and are the true governors of Chailand now -

Therefore, Thailand is about as democratic as China.

Both parties use the word democratic like its the latest fashionable trend, there is no political agenda in Thailand, its just money and power and handouts and payoffs, Coups happen when the spread fails to satisfy the greed, the people are merely spectators paying to watch a game they have no control over.

Well you has some good points but am going to have to add you to the growing list of posters talking about high so so's elites all of whom are nameless other than the Shinawatra's.

Point fingers all over the map but the fact still comes down to the fact Thaksin Shinawatra is running the country and these nameless people you people talk about are just sitting back and using him as a free lunch. None of his shenanigans hurt them how could they none of them are aimed at getting the rich poorer they are all aimed at enriching himself.

Nothing the PTP is doing is hurting them. Some Of them have even received big tax breaks. the 300 baht a day has not hurt them they just cut back on the benefits the people were getting and continued on making money now they don't have to pay so much tax on it. The small businesses are the ones who are hurt by these moves as well as the every day Thai who is seeing his cost of living rising but his take home pay and benefits dwindling.

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Thai Society,Thai culture and the dominant religion will not remotely come close to a Democracy comparable to Western civilization

In a hierchial society of face, where things are forgotten in a heartbeat, morals are completely different, people don't say what they mean, people are scared to say what they mean.

And manipulation of the masses is so easy with soap operas, 500 baht notes and cheap tabloid tactics to herd the mindless poor, then how can a democracy truly work here?

A secular nation that has limited understandings on what goes on outside its own walls, nor the wanted desire to change because it already assumes itself to be the best.

In reality,generations of rich elite came from China, and are the true governors of Chailand now -

Therefore, Thailand is about as democratic as China.

Both parties use the word democratic like its the latest fashionable trend, there is no political agenda in Thailand, its just money and power and handouts and payoffs, Coups happen when the spread fails to satisfy the greed, the people are merely spectators paying to watch a game they have no control over.

Good post .

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Civilian oversight of military a long way off, expert says

There is civilian oversight of the military now. It's just not official.

Do you really believe the military operates independently? Not.

Oh my lord. No, they just operate in their own best interests.

Or the person who pays the most!!!!

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Good news for Abhisit and his friends. They can't win elections but still have a fair chance to grant future coup makers amnesty. Bet you that the Democrat Party has concept amnesty laws for human rights abusing military in their standard membership kits.

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The prospect of coup is taken far too lightly. Every time the military has seized power they have enriched themselves and damaged civilian society. A military coup is a destructive and negative step in any country. I hope that it never happens again in Thailand.

And, just what is wrong with the current government? It won the election by a substantial majority. It defeated the previous government. That is called democracy. Why is there so much criticism of the Thaksin led government? Corruption, any more or less under the previous government? Inefficiency? I could point out that the Thai economy, by all traditional measures, is doing well. Not sure how much of this can be attributed to the government, but there it is.

A Thaksin led government, the sky is not yet falling.

Completely wrong.

Now I've heard that the military-appointed government was inefficient & didn't do much for the country (which has some truth). But supposedly enriching themselves? No evidence of that at all. In fact the regime they replaced was the self-enrichment group.

You may be deliberately blind to Thaksin's corruption, which was far worse than any previous government. Are you also blind to his overtly dictatorial way of 'governing'? It continues to this day with his party having one opinion & one only. His. PTP then just do what they're told.

The risk of another coup will fall dramatically when someone has the guts to shut him up - in jail or otherwise.

Sorry but you are wrong, the army chief/generals were paid B1,5bn to stage the last coup. When an international journalist asked the army chief about the B1,5 bn rumor he responded by saying "you need money to run an army". Which is a lie because the government pay the army, they (generals) pocketed the money in offshore accounts.

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And since when does the military understand anything about democracy? They only understand taking the law into their own hands.

Another silly statement.

Look at what happened with the last coup,. Briefly:

The army took over when Thaksin refused to hold an election and was staying on as some sort of caretaker PM in spite of his term being up.

They then proposed changes to the constitution and took those changes to the people through a referendum, those changes were approved by the people.

They then held a general election, something that Thaksin had failed to do.

When a new version of Thaksins party won that election the army stepped back and let the result stand.

Far more democratic than Thaksin and indeed the present PT Govt who refuse to hold a referendum on the changes they want to make to the constitution.

If at that stage the army top brass had wanted power they could have held on to it as per Burma.

No, there will be no coup in the foreseeable future because the army understand if there was it would be a blood bath with Thaksins armed faction ready and waiting to cause as much havoc as possible.

And those of you who think it would be a great fun event try considering yourselves as targets.

"

"They then proposed changes to the constitution and took those changes to the people through a referendum, those changes were approved by the people."

Ahh, WRONG! First, they shredded the "People's Constitution" that was in effect and wrote a completely new one. Yes, the incorporated some of the previous one, but also made sure they added a statute that granted them total and complete immunity for their ILLEGAL actions of the Coup.

And the part about the "...referendum, those changes were approved by the people." Yeah, with a gun to their heads to vote for it. The Coup makers declared it "illegal" to say anything negative about the new constitution, and told them to vote for this one, or stay under martial law indefinitely. Gee, what a choice.

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And since when does the military understand anything about democracy? They only understand taking the law into their own hands.

Another silly statement.

Look at what happened with the last coup,. Briefly:

The army took over when Thaksin refused to hold an election and was staying on as some sort of caretaker PM in spite of his term being up.

They then proposed changes to the constitution and took those changes to the people through a referendum, those changes were approved by the people.

They then held a general election, something that Thaksin had failed to do.

When a new version of Thaksins party won that election the army stepped back and let the result stand.

Far more democratic than Thaksin and indeed the present PT Govt who refuse to hold a referendum on the changes they want to make to the constitution.

If at that stage the army top brass had wanted power they could have held on to it as per Burma.

No, there will be no coup in the foreseeable future because the army understand if there was it would be a blood bath with Thaksins armed faction ready and waiting to cause as much havoc as possible.

And those of you who think it would be a great fun event try considering yourselves as targets.

"

"They then proposed changes to the constitution and took those changes to the people through a referendum, those changes were approved by the people."

Ahh, WRONG! First, they shredded the "People's Constitution" that was in effect and wrote a completely new one. Yes, the incorporated some of the previous one

Ahh, WRONG !

Compare the constitutions.

They're 90% the exact same.

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And since when does the military understand anything about democracy? They only understand taking the law into their own hands.

Another silly statement.

Look at what happened with the last coup,. Briefly:

The army took over when Thaksin refused to hold an election and was staying on as some sort of caretaker PM in spite of his term being up.

They then proposed changes to the constitution and took those changes to the people through a referendum, those changes were approved by the people.

They then held a general election, something that Thaksin had failed to do.

When a new version of Thaksins party won that election the army stepped back and let the result stand.

Far more democratic than Thaksin and indeed the present PT Govt who refuse to hold a referendum on the changes they want to make to the constitution.

If at that stage the army top brass had wanted power they could have held on to it as per Burma.

No, there will be no coup in the foreseeable future because the army understand if there was it would be a blood bath with Thaksins armed faction ready and waiting to cause as much havoc as possible.

And those of you who think it would be a great fun event try considering yourselves as targets.

Good post Robby but the coup was more than a reaction to the destabilisation of Thai society caused by Thaksins illegal control of parliament it was also to save lives. Thaksin had sent his death squads out to launch grenades into the yellowshirts camps almost nightly, with RTP not only ignoring the attack but also adding to the death toll with their exploding tear gas attacks.

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"They then proposed changes to the constitution and took those changes to the people through a referendum, those changes were approved by the people."

Ahh, WRONG! First, they shredded the "People's Constitution" that was in effect and wrote a completely new one. Yes, the incorporated some of the previous one, but also made sure they added a statute that granted them total and complete immunity for their ILLEGAL actions of the Coup.

And the part about the "...referendum, those changes were approved by the people." Yeah, with a gun to their heads to vote for it. The Coup makers declared it "illegal" to say anything negative about the new constitution, and told them to vote for this one, or stay under martial law indefinitely. Gee, what a choice.

Another who reads from the red shirt book.

Wrong as has already been pointed out.

How about the present PT Govt is now trying introduce amnesty legislation that grants them total and complete immunity for their ILLEGAL actions of the red shirt riots?

Yeah, with a gun to their heads to vote for it..............

With a gun to the heads of all the people yea right

And as I said PT refusing to hold a referendum on the changes they want to make to the constitution.

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And since when does the military understand anything about democracy? They only understand taking the law into their own hands.

Another silly statement.

Look at what happened with the last coup,. Briefly:

The army took over when Thaksin refused to hold an election and was staying on as some sort of caretaker PM in spite of his term being up.

They then proposed changes to the constitution and took those changes to the people through a referendum, those changes were approved by the people.

They then held a general election, something that Thaksin had failed to do.

When a new version of Thaksins party won that election the army stepped back and let the result stand.

Far more democratic than Thaksin and indeed the present PT Govt who refuse to hold a referendum on the changes they want to make to the constitution.

If at that stage the army top brass had wanted power they could have held on to it as per Burma.

No, there will be no coup in the foreseeable future because the army understand if there was it would be a blood bath with Thaksins armed faction ready and waiting to cause as much havoc as possible.

And those of you who think it would be a great fun event try considering yourselves as targets.

Good post Robby but the coup was more than a reaction to the destabilisation of Thai society caused by Thaksins illegal control of parliament it was also to save lives. Thaksin had sent his death squads out to launch grenades into the yellowshirts camps almost nightly, with RTP not only ignoring the attack but also adding to the death toll with their exploding tear gas attacks.

Good post Waza so who is it that decides when a coup is justified or not? Do people vote on a coup and does that make it democratic coup?

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"strong civilian support and consensus that civilians should have oversight of the military." We all know who wants oversight of the military.. That's why we had the last coup.

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The prospect of coup is taken far too lightly. Every time the military has seized power they have enriched themselves and damaged civilian society. A military coup is a destructive and negative step in any country. I hope that it never happens again in Thailand.

 

And, just what is wrong with the current government? It won the election by a substantial majority. It defeated the previous government. That is called democracy. Why is there so much criticism of the Thaksin led government? Corruption, any more or less under the previous government? Inefficiency? I could point out that the Thai economy, by all traditional measures, is doing well. Not sure how much of this can be attributed to the government, but there it is. 

 

A Thaksin led government, the sky is not yet falling.

Last I checked, a majority is more than 50%.

Sent from my Phone.

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I suspect that the situation here hasn't reached the coup boiling point yet. The PTP were (Thaksin was) clever enough to get the red shirt mob to lay off the CC. That's reduced the temperature a few degrees.

As Scott says, the temple issue is a wild card but the joker still remains Mr T.

I hope there is no reason for another coup. The only reason for me is when the government becomes dictatorial (as per Thaksin before the last coup) then it is time for it to be reigned in.

As for a poster likening the next (possible) coup outcome to Syria - absolute rubbish. A civil war - maybe, but outside involvement coupled with a sectarian factor - farfetched.

I said "a kind of Syria".

I did not say identical to Syria or even similar to Syria in the nature of the combatants.

I'm referring to civil war in Thailand and the domestic killing and destruction. Period. How could anyone misinterpret my statement to mean jihadist groups would swarm into a civil war were it to occur in Thailand? There's no Lebanon next door or nearby, no Iran, no Saudi Arabia - no Middle East.

The extremist separatists in the South would take advantage of any civil war or serious civil disturbance in Thailand, but they are not Hezbollah. Thais are Buddhists, not Sunny Muslims or Shi'ia Muslims, or Alawite Muslims etc. Thailand's immediate neighbors are Buddhist too, excepting Malaysia which overall is a 'moderate' Muslim state. (Again, overall.)

Please calm down. Death and destruction in Thailand. Not Muslim religious sects. What I write is what you get, nothing more, nothing less.

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Thai Society,Thai culture and the dominant religion will not remotely come close to a Democracy comparable to Western civilization

In a hierchial society of face, where things are forgotten in a heartbeat, morals are completely different, people don't say what they mean, people are scared to say what they mean.

And manipulation of the masses is so easy with soap operas, 500 baht notes and cheap tabloid tactics to herd the mindless poor, then how can a democracy truly work here?

A secular nation that has limited understandings on what goes on outside its own walls, nor the wanted desire to change because it already assumes itself to be the best.

In reality,generations of rich elite came from China, and are the true governors of Chailand now -

Therefore, Thailand is about as democratic as China.

Both parties use the word democratic like its the latest fashionable trend, there is no political agenda in Thailand, its just money and power and handouts and payoffs, Coups happen when the spread fails to satisfy the greed, the people are merely spectators paying to watch a game they have no control over.

Good post .

People rant on and on about democracy from what I hear Switzerland is the only one that has one. That may or may not be true. But I have heard of no other country that has one.

So why other than to Thai bash keep carrying on about the lack of Democracy in Thailand of all places. Close to 200 countries in the world and they think it is bad that Thailand does not have one.

Quit your winging about the lack of a ideal's put your feet on the ground and start worrying more about the corruption in the Kingdom, Even with Switzerland democracy if that is indeed what they have they are rated as the sixth best in the world five ahead of them for lack of corruption. Thailand is 88 out of 176 countries that have been rated.

If you want to rant about no Democracy go to North Korea I am sure they would love to hear your messages on Democracies.

Or go to Somalia They would welcome you with open arms.

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Good news for Abhisit and his friends. They can't win elections but still have a fair chance to grant future coup makers amnesty. Bet you that the Democrat Party has concept amnesty laws for human rights abusing military in their standard membership kits.

If every one thought like you it would be a tragickingdom.

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The prospect of coup is taken far too lightly. Every time the military has seized power they have enriched themselves and damaged civilian society. A military coup is a destructive and negative step in any country. I hope that it never happens again in Thailand.

And, just what is wrong with the current government? It won the election by a substantial majority. It defeated the previous government. That is called democracy. Why is there so much criticism of the Thaksin led government? Corruption, any more or less under the previous government? Inefficiency? I could point out that the Thai economy, by all traditional measures, is doing well. Not sure how much of this can be attributed to the government, but there it is.

A Thaksin led government, the sky is not yet falling.

Completely wrong.

Now I've heard that the military-appointed government was inefficient & didn't do much for the country (which has some truth). But supposedly enriching themselves? No evidence of that at all. In fact the regime they replaced was the self-enrichment group.

You may be deliberately blind to Thaksin's corruption, which was far worse than any previous government. Are you also blind to his overtly dictatorial way of 'governing'? It continues to this day with his party having one opinion & one only. His. PTP then just do what they're told.

The risk of another coup will fall dramatically when someone has the guts to shut him up - in jail or otherwise.

Sorry but you are wrong, the army chief/generals were paid B1,5bn to stage the last coup. When an international journalist asked the army chief about the B1,5 bn rumor he responded by saying "you need money to run an army". Which is a lie because the government pay the army, they (generals) pocketed the money in offshore accounts.

They just get crazier and crazier.cheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gifgiggle.gif

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"They then proposed changes to the constitution and took those changes to the people through a referendum, those changes were approved by the people."

Ahh, WRONG! First, they shredded the "People's Constitution" that was in effect and wrote a completely new one. Yes, the incorporated some of the previous one

Ahh, WRONG !

Compare the constitutions.

They're 90% the exact same.

Yes, but it's that little 10% that makes all the difference in the world. The "People's Constitution" stated that coup were illegal.
What article/section states that?

I am not a "Thaksinite", Red Shirt supporter, or even anything close, but the coup was not only illegal, but morally wrong, and Thailand has yet to fully recover from the consequences of it.

More accurately, Thailand has yet to fully recover from the PM's actions before the coup and continues to suffer the consequences from that because the same man is doing the same thing a decade later.
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We all might need to make a break - for the border.

Another coup means the army isn't going to step down anytime soon. (You think the hi-so's are gone?) All the election did in 2007 after the army, as self-scheduled, stepped down was to yet again reelect Thaksin's people. Then what happened? Samak got booted out because he like to cook on television and was stupid enough to accept a (cough) few baht for it. Somchai got aced out by a silent behind the scenes coup. Bangkok's center got torched for it.

A new coup against Yingluck and Thaksin's present gang would be absolutely intolerable to the reds. Each side knows the stakes involved in any new coup. It would be for keeps, the new old Burma. Each side would neither come nor go quietly.

Thanks for that riveting insight Nostradamus. Bed time Zzzzzzzz

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We all might need to make a break - for the border.

Another coup means the army isn't going to step down anytime soon. (You think the hi-so's are gone?) All the election did in 2007 after the army, as self-scheduled, stepped down was to yet again reelect Thaksin's people. Then what happened? Samak got booted out because he like to cook on television and was stupid enough to accept a (cough) few baht for it. Somchai got aced out by a silent behind the scenes coup. Bangkok's center got torched for it.

A new coup against Yingluck and Thaksin's present gang would be absolutely intolerable to the reds. Each side knows the stakes involved in any new coup. It would be for keeps, the new old Burma. Each side would neither come nor go quietly.

Thanks for that riveting insight Nostradamus. Bed time Zzzzzzzz

Be sure to get a lot of sleep. It helps to clear the head and improve the disposition.

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The prospect of coup is taken far too lightly. Every time the military has seized power they have enriched themselves and damaged civilian society. A military coup is a destructive and negative step in any country. I hope that it never happens again in Thailand.

And, just what is wrong with the current government? It won the election by a substantial majority. It defeated the previous government. That is called democracy. Why is there so much criticism of the Thaksin led government? Corruption, any more or less under the previous government? Inefficiency? I could point out that the Thai economy, by all traditional measures, is doing well. Not sure how much of this can be attributed to the government, but there it is.

A Thaksin led government, the sky is not yet falling.

Completely wrong.

Now I've heard that the military-appointed government was inefficient & didn't do much for the country (which has some truth). But supposedly enriching themselves? No evidence of that at all. In fact the regime they replaced was the self-enrichment group.

You may be deliberately blind to Thaksin's corruption, which was far worse than any previous government. Are you also blind to his overtly dictatorial way of 'governing'? It continues to this day with his party having one opinion & one only. His. PTP then just do what they're told.

The risk of another coup will fall dramatically when someone has the guts to shut him up - in jail or otherwise.

I usually don't reply to posts of posts, but since I am "completely wrong", I thought why not.

"in jail or otherwise"—what does that mean? Are you endorsing violence against Thaksin? All that Mr T has been charged with is corruption. Apparently he is one of the few in the world, or in Thailand, who has committed financial corruption.

The military junta promoted themselves, contracts, and generally consolidated the position of the military in Thai society. All this was reported at the time in the local media. It is what military governments do.

The red shirt party—under whatever name—has always received a clear majority of votes over other parties. Rightly or wrongly the Thai working class view the red shirts as their friend in government.

Mr T is a dictator and is running the government from wherever. Very likely true. I am not a Mr T supporter, however, rather than hassling him over financial matters he should be investigated for deaths in custody, but that would open up a large can of worms.

The Thai economy is doing well.

Again, just what is Ms Thaksin doing that is so bad?

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