Why Do You Even Drink?

[webfact]

Peace talks go south again as politics trumps security
Bunn Nagara
The Star
Asia News Network

Bangkok has once more let political priorities trump security considerations, with predictable results.

BANGKOK: -- Up to a fortnight ago, the latest "peace process" for southern Thailand that was supposed to trundle along since February was meandering. Thai delegation leader and National Security Council head Paradorn Pattanathabutr, and chief negotiator for the BRN (Barisan Revolusi Nasional) rebels Hassan Thoyib, were supposedly poring over the details of each other's positions.

There were doubts all round about the prospects of the negotiations, given the known circumstances. Since then, however, things have cleared up considerably - by deteriorating.

Two Sundays ago Hassan posted on YouTube five demands for a cessation of violence in the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat. That effectively spelt the end of any productive talks.

In submitting his terms to YouTube, Hassan showed that he was addressing an audience other than the Thai government. But his chief motive appears to be to subvert the very process he began because he no longer had faith in its success.

To the initiated, this latest attempt at talking peace was ill-fated from the start. Both sides must have known it was going nowhere as soon as it had begun.

Hassan's own status among the rebels is questionable. Not only did he have no mandate to speak for the BRN, some BRN leaders even opposed his role in the talks.

However, that little detail did not stop Paradorn from describing Hassan as the real rebel leader. Other Thai officials privately expressed a different view.

To realists, the only reason Hassan is in the picture at all is his connection with the Wadah faction of the BRN reportedly affiliated to the governing Pheu Thai Party. That means both sides of the "talks" had been engineered by the current Thai government, with all the limitations and pitfalls that implies.

On the Thai government side, things were no better. The unofficial involvement of ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was enough to sour matters with Thailand's southern community, which had to bear the brunt of his ruthless excesses.

Officially, this latest stab at peace was launched with great fanfare by Thaksin's sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, with her Malaysian counterpart Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak representing Malaysia as "facilitator". Then Yingluck swiftly withdrew from the process and let it slide, in vain hopes that it would soar. Even Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, and Interior Minister Charubutr Ruangsuwan did not relate well to the talks.

As a result, rebels on the ground and Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha came to share the same perspective - no point banking on the talks. And as nobody who mattered wanted to invest in the negotiations, the dividends were accordingly meagre.

With the process in such peril, what could a sometime BRN player like Hassan Thoyib do? Answer: Extricate himself fast, but without losing face or letting the failure look like his fault. Thus the five conditions, posted on YouTube for the whole world to see. It was clear enough that they were designed to be unacceptable to the Thai government.

Sure enough, Bangkok dismissed the conditions outright. Paradorn said Hassan had the right to post them on YouTube, but that was not the point. Hassan had returned the ball to Paradorn's court, and in such a way as to ensure the latter would be left fuming.

The first condition was for Malaysia to switch from being merely a facilitator to a "mediator". This seemed calculated to be rejected both by Bangkok, seasonally suspicious of Malaysia for harbouring ulterior motives across the border, and by Malaysia itself for encouraging such suspicions.

Second, Hassan and his clique wanted to monopolise the talks from the insurgents' end. He insisted that only those from, or approved by, his faction of the BRN would be permitted to participate. If those conditions proved insufficient to derail the talks, the third calling for observers from foreign NGOs or OIC or Asean countries would certainly do the trick. It not only did that but also upset the Thai government as well.

Fourth, Hassan wanted all charges against the rebels to be dropped, no new charges to be filed, and all captured detainees to be freed. And until a peace deal has been sealed, the insurgents would continue their violent attacks.

Fifth, Hassan wanted the Thai government to officially acknowledge that the rebels were freedom fighters of a liberation movement rather than insurgents. This would rub salt into the wound and guarantee that Bangkok would reject the conditions as a whole even if it accepted the other four.

This fifth condition also had the "benefit" of appeasing militants on the ground and their leadership, especially when they had not taken kindly to Hassan's self-appointed role in representing them. But this would not contribute substantially, if at all, to the prospects of peace.

By now, few among rebel ranks were unaware of the real purpose of the talks: Thaksin sidling up to his most outstanding liability, management of the southernmost provinces, in paving the way to his political return. That further delegitimises the current round of talks and keeps all stakeholders well away from the process.

Does this mean no peace negotiations are possible? Not at all, since there are leaders of the BRN and Pulo (Pattani United Liberation Organisation), another rebel group, in favour of peace and genuine talks for achieving it.

One of the problems with the latest negotiations is that its cynical motives and subsequent weaknesses place all parties in a bad light. As a result, all future attempts at building peace become that much more difficult.

Even at the best of times, the BRN is too factionalised to limit talks to just one or two factions. Their leaders must also have enough of a handle on the militants, particularly the younger generation of rebels.

Like community activists everywhere they want peace, but it has to be a peace based on justice and meaningful reforms. So far they do not see much commitment from Bangkok. The needed reforms would include effective elimination of poverty, anti-corruption measures and a decentralisation of power to the provinces. Southern Thais would be among the first to know if such policies are real. A rebel chief that Thai authorities have tried to invite for talks is Sapae-ing Basor, spiritual leader and former head of a religious school. But he has been reluctant to emerge, especially as no amnesty has been granted to him against capture.

With more attacks since then, the need for peace becomes more urgent even if the incentive for talks remains in doubt.

Bunn Nagara is a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies.

-- The Nation 2013-05-13

[bigbamboo]

That ridiculous signing ceremony was no more than government PR. But then everyone (apart from maybe the blessed ingenue herself) knew that.

[Halion]

Simply yet another example of lack of understanding ,ability and aptitude of this Government to achieve anything outside lining their pockets and inflating their ego's.

The PTP is a circus with clowns, jugglers,acrobats and a ring master in Dubai.

[ChrisY1]

The government treats the south as a non interest zone.....typically making noises that lead nowhere while attempting to convince the Thai population and the international audiences, that efforts are being played out.

In fact, nothing of any substance is actually happening. (other than continuing violence)

It appears, since this has been going on so long, that most political parties in Thailand have little interest whatsoever.

[chainarong]

The cracked record syndrome: Regurgitating the same policies / practices over and over again and getting no where.

[hellodolly]

The government treats the south as a non interest zone.....typically making noises that lead nowhere while attempting to convince the Thai population and the international audiences, that efforts are being played out.

In fact, nothing of any substance is actually happening. (other than continuing violence)

It appears, since this has been going on so long, that most political parties in Thailand have little interest whatsoever.

I would add the same is going on for the terrorists side. They had no intention of declaring peace it was all a show for a gullible world.

[moe666]

When you talk to yourself in a mirror not much gets done

[winstonc]

please can anyone enlighten me as to what the trouble is all about down south,i cant get a clear anwer anywhere,up here in ubon,,,,,thanks,,

[rucus7]

When you talk to yourself in a mirror not much gets done

I would have to disagree with that on principle.

[hellodolly]

please can anyone enlighten me as to what the trouble is all about down south,i cant get a clear anwer anywhere,up here in ubon,,,,,thanks,,

Well you are going to hear a lot of reasons most of them would have you believe that the world was created in the year 1900 and there was nothing before it Like as if the British had always ruled over those three provinces.

The facts are easy to see if you consider what religion around the world uses bombs and guns and airplanes so there minority can have 100% control. That is not to mention the threats they use if you disagree with them. Also treats women as possessions to do with them as they please.

I will give you a clue it was founded by a man who worked for his wife and rode off to heaven on a winged horse after leaving writings which included kill the infidels.

The really sad part about it is most of the people would be very happy to live there life with out the threat of a bomb or drive by shooting. It is a very small amount of people who want what they have and are going to continue the terrorism until they have the whole show instead of 3% of it. I made that percentage number up but I don't think I am far off maybe a little or a lot high.Also that small amount of people can not even agree with each other.

Yes it is true the majority of the people would like to see changes. But that is a fools argument for the going's on down there. Take your pick of any three provinces in all of Thailand and they will all want to see changes. But funny thing is they are not dominated by a religion that says kill the infidels.

[surangw]

It appears the parties involved in this do not really want the conflict to end.