Rice-Pledging Scheme: How Much Have We Lost, Yingluck Asks

[gemini81]

We all knew it would go down like this. Get what you vote for (hope the 500 baht was worth it for all the country bums who took the bait).

[SICHONSTEVE]

We all knew it would go down like this. Get what you vote for (hope the 500 baht was worth it for all the country bums who took the bait).

Of course it was - this country is in brilliant shape, going forward at a pace and ready for ASEAN, or hadn't you noticed?

[animatic]

What staggers me ,is that the government have only recently "evaluated" the scheme and have decided to continue it , without ,by their own admission ,the faintest idea of it's accounting !

Blindingly incompetent.

There is no way in hell that they are going to admit that is was a bad idea so what other choice did they have?

Yes, avoid face loss at all costs, admit nothing,

but coupled to the needed payback fro the election that didn't get done sufficiently,

because of the flood, made worse by trying to keep as much of that payback flowing as possible.

It wasn't enough, so they have to put on the brave facades

and do it one more time for the Gipper.. er Big Tipper.

Edited June 5, 2013 by animatic

[monty1412]

What really concerns me about this is not the disclosure of losses or any of that carry on; we all know it will be extensive;rather its the longer term effect on the country and the farmers.

The pledging scheme was introduced as a populist policy by he who cannot be named. Basically an expensive vote buying exercise.

In it of course was this very Thai belief that of course everyone would continue to buy rice from Thailand... even at higher prices....

So when this all starts to unravel the thai politicians will do everything they can to drop the scheme, the poor framers are left high and dry as the government is sitting on a mountain of rice, Thailand has lost market share and reputation in the global rice game and what is even worse is the quality and standard of rice being produced has become exceedingly substandard.... short grain inferior rices grow faster than higher market value long grains.

So who is going to lose here... unfortunately it wont be the politicians in fact in a perverse way its probably ideal for Thaksin to see his sister become very unpopular over this and he sails back in as the returning hero. Moodys and alike will rip any numbers published apart, Thailand cant even dump the everest pile of rice into the market, politicians will fear backlash from the Moody's rating more than a few thousand disgruntled farmers voices.

So long term the farmers will suffer from this .

While my overall assessment of politicians anywhere is less than admirable the one thing I see in Thailand in great abundance is the singular lack of consequential analysis. Its not limited to the politicians here either rather it is endemic in the general populace.. the simple cognitive process of analysing an action and looking at possible effects and outcomes is simply not in the Thai way of thinking.

Couple this with the other belief that "Thai is best" and you have a very dangerous cocktail.... and one can plainly see this as the initial thinking was " of course the world will pay a premium for Thai rice".. well think again lads.

The votes that were garnered under this scheme may end up being one of the most expensive folly's for the country as a whole once full disclosure of the data is out in public domain... that will have immediate effects on Thailand however longer term follow on effects will for the farmers;be severe.

[SICHONSTEVE]

What really concerns me about this is not the disclosure of losses or any of that carry on; we all know it will be extensive;rather its the longer term effect on the country and the farmers.

The pledging scheme was introduced as a populist policy by he who cannot be named. Basically an expensive vote buying exercise.

In it of course was this very Thai belief that of course everyone would continue to buy rice from Thailand... even at higher prices....

So when this all starts to unravel the thai politicians will do everything they can to drop the scheme, the poor framers are left high and dry as the government is sitting on a mountain of rice, Thailand has lost market share and reputation in the global rice game and what is even worse is the quality and standard of rice being produced has become exceedingly substandard.... short grain inferior rices grow faster than higher market value long grains.

So who is going to lose here... unfortunately it wont be the politicians in fact in a perverse way its probably ideal for Thaksin to see his sister become very unpopular over this and he sails back in as the returning hero. Moodys and alike will rip any numbers published apart, Thailand cant even dump the everest pile of rice into the market, politicians will fear backlash from the Moody's rating more than a few thousand disgruntled farmers voices.

So long term the farmers will suffer from this .

While my overall assessment of politicians anywhere is less than admirable the one thing I see in Thailand in great abundance is the singular lack of consequential analysis. Its not limited to the politicians here either rather it is endemic in the general populace.. the simple cognitive process of analysing an action and looking at possible effects and outcomes is simply not in the Thai way of thinking.

Couple this with the other belief that "Thai is best" and you have a very dangerous cocktail.... and one can plainly see this as the initial thinking was " of course the world will pay a premium for Thai rice".. well think again lads.

The votes that were garnered under this scheme may end up being one of the most expensive folly's for the country as a whole once full disclosure of the data is out in public domain... that will have immediate effects on Thailand however longer term follow on effects will for the farmers;be severe.

So Basically you are saying that "not everything is rosy in the Thai garden" then!!

[drdoom6996]

Boonsong said that the Bt260 billion loss, reportedly cited in an unofficial Finance Ministry report, associated with the scheme was groundless. But he did not produce any proof to support his claim.

Sounds like Boonsong's claim is groundless and MOODY'S found proof. More PTP BS.

[animatic]

Their only bloody hope is to quickly set up rice burning energy plants

and convert much of the lost / damaged rice into covering part of the national energy bill.

Of course this takes out-of-the-box, forward thinking and this government has

so little available it is surely a future-grasping-deficit of massive proportions.

[drdoom6996]

Natthawut, speaking after the Cabinet meeting, said Yingluck had approved his idea to launch a mobile public relations campaign to raise awareness of the rice-pledging scheme with farmers across the country. The first event would be held in Phitsanulok on Sunday (June 9).

A little late perhaps after already losing 260 billion Baht.

[drdoom6996]

When asked repeatedly, the PM said: "I told you, that those responsible for finding out the [actual] figures associated with the scheme will make them public later." Asked if the scheme losing such a huge amount would affect her as prime minister, she said "Enough!", and walked off..................................

to go shopping!

[robertson468]

I said yesterday that I am no high flown economist, but.......................... having heard about this scheme, I could not understand how a degradable product would be of higher value the year following to being put in storage. Someone please tell me I am a moron and do not understand the simple principles of economics!

[SICHONSTEVE]

Natthawut, speaking after the Cabinet meeting, said Yingluck had approved his idea to launch a mobile public relations campaign to raise awareness of the rice-pledging scheme with farmers across the country. The first event would be held in Phitsanulok on Sunday (June 9).

A little late perhaps after already losing 260 billion Baht.

Better late than never though..........well perhaps not!!

[drdoom6996]

She said Moody's warning needed to be double-checked and balanced by actual figures on profitability of the rice scheme from the Commerce Ministry. "It's a responsibility of Thai authorities to give actual figures to Moody's," she noted.

MOODY"S does not understand "little white lies" to keep the public happy.

[SICHONSTEVE]

I said yesterday that I am no high flown economist, but.......................... having heard about this scheme, I could not understand how a degradable product would be of higher value the year following to being put in storage. Someone please tell me I am a moron and do not understand the simple principles of economics!

You are a moron!! well as far as understanding Thai politics anyway

[hellodolly]

"Natthawut, speaking after the Cabinet meeting, said Yingluck had
approved his idea to launch a mobile public relations campaign to raise
awareness of the rice-pledging scheme with farmers across the country.
The first event would be held in Phitsanulok on Sunday (June 9)."

That will surely impress Moody's.

They might even upgrade Thailand standing. not

"The government was grilled about the scheme by the opposition in the 2014 budget bill debate last week.

During the debate, Boonsong said that the Bt260 billion loss, reportedly
cited in an unofficial Finance Ministry report, associated with the
scheme was groundless. But he did not produce any proof to support his
claim."

If they had been grilled about it last week by the Democrats why did he not have the facts were they just ignoring the Democrats during the grilling and making up things as they went along?

Now all of a sudden the clone is ordering them to come up with real facts for presentation to Moody's. So in typical PT fashion of they go to explain a two year old system to the rice farmers. Like as if the rice farmers would have cared if it truly had been benefiting them.

My personal opinion is she was stalling for time waiting for a phone call from Dubai

Commerce Ministry permanent secretary

Watcharee said had sought to get official figures from the committee,
but was allegedly told the figures were classified, by order of Finance
Ministry leaders.

"A Pheu Thai source said a party meeting last weekend discussed economic
issues faced by the Yingluck government and agreed to assign Weerawuth
Wajjanaphukka, Boonsong's secretary, to make announcements on the
government stance on Moody's warning this week. Weerawuth had failed to
deliver, while Boonsong had also stayed silent over the issue, despite
the Commerce Ministry being supposed to make clarifications to the
public over the figures."

Now if I understand it the Minister of finance an admitted public liar to make people feel good when the facts are so bad they would feel bad over them will not cooperate with the Commerce Ministry Boonsong or Commerce Ministry permanent secretary Watcharee

Edited June 5, 2013 by hellodolly

[SICHONSTEVE]

She said Moody's warning needed to be double-checked and balanced by actual figures on profitability of the rice scheme from the Commerce Ministry. "It's a responsibility of Thai authorities to give actual figures to Moody's," she noted.

MOODY"S does not understand "little white lies" to keep the public happy.

I'm sure it does!!!

[drdoom6996]

It's largely irrelevant anyway what the estimated loss is. They can't and haven't sold much so the system will need refinancing eventually anyway.

Its not a loss stupid!!! it is profitable, as they have said so.

Why don't the press, public and everyone else leave this government alone so that they can carry on with the fine job that they are doing governing the country!!!.

As I said, estimated loss. As yet unrealised. But unfortuately if you get into the agricultural commodities business, valuing long term stock in the warehouse is one of those extremely annoying things to do, because it shows you good and proper that you boughteither, the wrong stuff or,at the wrong price or, at the wrong time.

Any one of these issues causes problems.

Seems the current rice scheme fulfills all three.

Its not even an estimated loss, they are making money apparently.

Your going to tell me you don't believe them, aren't you!!!

Shame on you!!

I believe Moody's.

[SICHONSTEVE]

"Natthawut, speaking after the Cabinet meeting, said Yingluck had

approved his idea to launch a mobile public relations campaign to raise

awareness of the rice-pledging scheme with farmers across the country.

The first event would be held in Phitsanulok on Sunday (June 9)."

That will surely impress Moody's.

They might even upgrade Thailand standing. not

Why don't they hold the meeting in the Seychelle isles, its lovely there!!!

[animatic]

Natthawut, speaking after the Cabinet meeting, said Yingluck had approved his idea to launch a mobile public relations campaign to raise awareness of the rice-pledging scheme with farmers across the country. The first event would be held in Phitsanulok on Sunday (June 9).

A little late perhaps after already losing 260 billion Baht.

Better late than never though..........well perhaps not!!

He is simply holding up a carrot to the rice farmers to make them imagine the government is helping them next harvest too. Just in case the bad news actually gets up to Issarn and those farmers start panicking and go off the liege lord's plan.

Of course with most all their daughters dating farangs in the resort areas who read the news and explain things like Moodys just dissed the government and all of Thailand for inept governance of 'The Rice Pledging Scheme', the word will get out.

Nutawhat is just trying a preemptive strike to keep the grass roots aligned with the liege lord.

Edited June 5, 2013 by animatic

[animatic]

I said yesterday that I am no high flown economist, but.......................... having heard about this scheme, I could not understand how a degradable product would be of higher value the year following to being put in storage. Someone please tell me I am a moron and do not understand the simple principles of economics!

You are a moron!! well as far as understanding Thai politics anyway

Don't feel bad, few other than Thais understand 'Thai Politics'.... Besides you DID ask him to tell you...

[drdoom6996]

can anyone enlighten me,,,if greece got into the eu,,on falsified claims about there economy,surely this government can do the same with the rice figures,are moodys really able to prove otherwise,,sreious question thanks all,,

They downgraded Greece several times.

[notmyself]

Their only bloody hope is to quickly set up rice burning energy plants

and convert much of the lost / damaged rice into covering part of the national energy bill.

Of course this takes out-of-the-box, forward thinking and this government has

so little available it is surely a future-grasping-deficit of massive proportions.

Rice contains too much moisture to use it. I've been through this with a couple of helpful members and a few friends. You need to remember that although some 18 million tonnes is quite a large amount [sic] it's dotted around all over the place and will need to be transported to a plant which takes energy, removing the moisture will also take energy and it also takes some energy to exchange the energy from rice. In the end it takes more energy than is given back so you lose.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Question. Do people really believe an outside agency (that's not Thai) over the honesty and integrity of this government that has all the figures available, once they can find them.

Don't forget that it seems that Moody's information came only from a high ranking department official insider that is privy to such information who then spilled the beans to the press and got carted off to inobscurity (sorry!! was promoted) - can you rely on such an obviously poor source for this information?? Besides Yingluck doesn't like it so it must be wrong.

[notmyself]

I said yesterday that I am no high flown economist, but.......................... having heard about this scheme, I could not understand how a degradable product would be of higher value the year following to being put in storage. Someone please tell me I am a moron and do not understand the simple principles of economics!

Rice can last many years if stored well but with inflation and overheads from storage it would be a bad bet.

[apetley]

Their only bloody hope is to quickly set up rice burning energy plants

and convert much of the lost / damaged rice into covering part of the national energy bill.

 

Of course this takes out-of-the-box, forward thinking and this government has

so little available it is surely a future-grasping-deficit of massive proportions.

One way out would be to call an election in a few months, win that and then end the rice pledging scheme. Guaranteed at least an extra term that way.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[waza]

I can feel a cabinet reshuffle coming on

[indyuk]

It seems that most responders to this thread are doing their best to destroy Thailands credibility since they must know that what is written here is devoured by the currency marketers.

Shame on all of those guilty of joining the feeding frenzy of the foreign community that would attempt to keep Thailand's sovereign ratings low. In a sense you are Traitors because none of you know what you are talking about simply because the actual figures have not been published.

[SICHONSTEVE]

I said yesterday that I am no high flown economist, but.......................... having heard about this scheme, I could not understand how a degradable product would be of higher value the year following to being put in storage. Someone please tell me I am a moron and do not understand the simple principles of economics!

Rice can last many years if stored well but with inflation and overheads from storage it would be a bad bet.

I bet they do hourly moisture/fungus checks in these giant government paid for sheds so should last for 5 years!!! But hey!! they can't shift it out fast enough on these G2G contracts so do you thing this would really be a problem for the future?

[Thai at Heart]

I said yesterday that I am no high flown economist, but.......................... having heard about this scheme, I could not understand how a degradable product would be of higher value the year following to being put in storage. Someone please tell me I am a moron and do not understand the simple principles of economics!

Rice can last many years if stored well but with inflation and overheads from storage it would be a bad bet.

But it certainly doesn't improve with age, and fresh crop will always be more sought after than old crop. So instantly there would be a write down in sale value pertaining to crop year.

[SICHONSTEVE]

It seems that most responders to this thread are doing their best to destroy Thailands credibility since they must know that what is written here is devoured by the currency marketers.

Shame on all of those guilty of joining the feeding frenzy of the foreign community that would attempt to keep Thailand's sovereign ratings low. In a sense you are Traitors because none of you know what you are talking about simply because the actual figures have not been published.

Honest apologies from me - I'm not going to lose my head am I??

Edited June 5, 2013 by SICHONSTEVE

[Thai at Heart]

It seems that most responders to this thread are doing their best to destroy Thailands credibility since they must know that what is written here is devoured by the currency marketers.

Shame on all of those guilty of joining the feeding frenzy of the foreign community that would attempt to keep Thailand's sovereign ratings low. In a sense you are Traitors because none of you know what you are talking about simply because the actual figures have not been published.

Seems we are in the same boat with Yingluck then. I don't think Moody's bothers to read Thaivisa, so don't worry too much.