Murder, masks and poll defeat daze the government: Thai opinion

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STOPPAGE TIME
Murder, masks and poll defeat daze the government
Tulsathit Taptim
[email protected]



BANGKOK: -- Losing by-elections comes with every government's tenure. Giving an opposition party its first victory in a very long time in a government constituency is also bound to happen sooner or later.

And celebrity candidates (no pun intended, although Yuranunt Pamornmontri is a former actor) lose all the time even if they have government support and run in previously impenetrable government strongholds.

These are reasons for the Pheu Thai Party not to freak out. It is comfort from the "no big deal" camp, which sees positives in the narrow margin of Yuranunt's defeat by Democrat challenger Tankhun Jitt-itsara. This camp looks at the fact that Tankhun worked his charity socks off in Constituency 12 during the flood crisis two years ago, and concludes that if he had failed to win, it would have been a major travesty.

It depends on how you look at it. Adding more thoughts to the above reasons could cause Pheu Thai a bit of a panic. Of course, governments are supposed to lose by-elections, even on home soil, but should they be defeated at a time of serious political divide? While Tankhun's flood relief work was extraordinary, Pheu Thai supporters used to be super-loyal, unreachable by other parties. One more thing: didn't Pheu Thai followers in Bangkok blame the flood woes on a Democrat city governor?

Tankhun's narrow victory followed Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra's re-election. Tankhun won at a time when the anti-government "white mask" phenomenon is spreading, especially in the capital. And the government's poll setback is hot on the heels of a high-profile murder mystery that - no matter who the real mastermind is - has further darkened the political atmosphere.

There are also subtle sentiments on the streets that, while not related to the white mask movement or the murder of Akeyuth Anchanbutr, should not be overlooked. Low-income people have seen new recruits enjoying pay that nearly equals theirs, and are not happy about it. The government's policies of raising starting salaries and the minimum wage are two-edged swords. While the beneficiaries are newcomers in the job market, many poor people - the government's political base - are finding themselves at the wrong end of the stick.

A by-election loss with a margin of 2,000 votes is not a big upset as far as the government's charter revamp and "amnesty" plans are concerned, but the defeat is not good news for this contentious agenda, either. It should be noted that, apart from the Bangkok gubernatorial race earlier this year, the government camp was scoring satisfactorily in every poll and survey except, of course, those on whether the public likes its "reconciliation" plan.

Does Akeyuth's brutal murder affect political opinions among the Thai public? The answer is a resounding yes, because people are making their stand on the issue more or less along political lines. So long as the government and police investigators cannot explain staggering plot holes emerging from suspect and witness testimonies, the case will continue to galvanise the anti-government half of Thailand.

If people critical of the testimonies and the authorities' side of the story are guilty of watching too many movies, those who believe the official line must have watched even more films. In other words, it's easier to believe that Akeyuth was a victim of a political conspiracy than to be convinced that his kidnappers/murderers did those things and hoped to get away with it. The crime, as explained by police "evidence", is like a B-grade movie whose scriptwriters abandoned the projects halfway through because their pay was cut.

Many questions have been asked. A very simple one has to do with how the suspects planned to live their lives if they somehow managed to pull it off. According to police "evidence", no matter how their plot transpired, it would have exposed them as the bad guys anyway. Supposing they got the money and escaped arrest, what would they do next? Would they flee Thailand? That would have required more money. Would they undergo surgery to change their appearances? Again, they would have needed more money. Did they plan to spend years in hiding? Then what's the point of trying to be "rich" in the first place?

A man who steals or robs someone of Bt5 million must have planned, or at least hoped, to live happily ever after. What are the suspects' ideas on that?

Akeyuth's death, the white mask movement and a by-election loss may be "no big deal" separately. Put together, with the growing weight of the rice price-pledging controversy added on, and with the government increasingly over-sensitive to criticism, they represent something quite daunting. If things were very difficult for Yingluck Shinawatra before, they are much harder now. In heading a government during a highly divisive period, facing hatred is in the job description. The government's problem is not how to put a lid on hatred and mistrust, but how not to do the very things that deepen that hatred and mistrust.

When the government has the urge to threaten critics with a crackdown (following a cartoonist's controversial Facebook posting), or condemns its opponents' activities, it should be reminded of the fact that its supporters poured gallons of blood in front of the house of Yingluck's immediate predecessor.

The numerical aspect of Thai politics guarantees the ruling camp's survival. But if the goal is to seek an even bigger mandate so a highly suspicious agenda can be accomplished, it was hit by a setback last Sunday. Pheu Thai can easily win an early election, but the unwritten message from today's main headlines - white mask, Akeyuth, rice scheme and Tankhun - is that it will make no difference.


-- The Nation 2013-06-19

[PoodMaiDai]

Should have opened a factory that produces Guy Fawkes masks and red feet clappers.

Hindsight is a b****!

[bigbamboo]

Dazed and confused just about sums this government up at the moment.

[Robby nz]

A by-election loss with a margin of 2,000 votes is not a big upset

yes but you have to consider that he lost the last general election by 8,000 votes so he had to first claw back those voted before he could get a majority.

So in actual fact the loss is by 10,000 votes

[Bellweather]

I'm not sure this government is dazed or fazed by anything as they live in their own little world where everything is going just fine.

[joeaverage]

All this on top of the fact that they have to leave their cars at home.

[hellodolly]

The article says

"It depends on how you look at it. Adding more thoughts to the above reasons could cause Pheu Thai a bit of a panic. Of course, governments are supposed to lose by-elections, even on home soil, but should they be defeated at a time of serious political divide?"

They lost 8,000 of their supporters. In that small number of voters that is a very big number. You are expected to lose in by elections but not that bad. This coming on the heals of a huge Democrat win for the Governor 14% should be a sign to the PT that they are in trouble.

Part of their problem is they are not smart enough to see through there own spin doctoring.

[metisdead]

Off topic completely nonsense posts and replies have been removed.

[waza]

"This camp looks at the fact that Tankhun worked his charity socks off in Constituency 12 during the flood crisis two years ago, and concludes that if he had failed to win, it would have been a major travesty."

Nice to see a good guy win for a change, and nice to see the wind on change is upon the PTP.

[Markaew]

Dazed and confused just about sums this government up at the moment.

True, but I believe it spans more time than the moment.