Phuket -- A pessimist's Paradise

[Guest]

The data from Finland seems to indicate that Thailand as a whole is down and if anything Phuket is faring marginally better (Phuket down 32% compared to a drop of 33% in Thailand as a whole).

Not really surprising again given the fact that the European economies are struggling and the other places in this survey mentioned are all considerably nearer and therefore presumably more affordable.

It also says that Phuket has been the major location for charter tours.

Thailand/Phuket has traditionally been a location where the flights are slightly more expensive than closer destinations. The difference has been that the services has been dirt cheap compared for example to the Fenno Scandinavian countries.

Most of the services are still cheap, but maybe not enough to compensate the long flight. The other part, which is maybe even more important, is how welcome visitors feel while they are on vacation. Can they enjoy nice sunny day on the beach without being constantly asked if they would like to buy 'souvenirs'. Can they walk on the street without being stopped if they wish to buy suit or porn movies. Those things happen almost everywhere, not only in Phuket. But it's the amount which is getting worse.

Those are some things what I have heard from friends who used to come to Thailand. Now they are going to different places. Singapore, Malaysia, New York, Italy and Croatia.

What comes to the pessimism, it tends to feed itself. When people have first experienced nice vacations and later on not so nice ones, they also are more likely to notice other negative news from a country.

So I guess there is a need to clean up the act of this little pessimists paradise. Or just get use to the change and adapt to that.

[NamKangMan]

<snip>

The point I am making is, a European tourist who used to come to Phuket, would go to a restaurant, order a drink, possibly an entree, and then a main meal. He would wash it down with a glass of wine, or more drinks. On average, the bill would be in the 100's of baht, possibly over 1000 baht, just for one person. If he had a Thai lady friend for dinner, the bill was higher.

This tourist has been replaced by 40 baht street soup eating Chinese and Russians. They buy their meals, and alcohol, from supermarkets, 7/11's and street vendors. Great for these businesses, but it's sending bars, cafes, restaurants, guest houses etc broke.

Could not agree with you more NKM. I have been seeing this trend for the past 2 or 3 years. The reasons - money is tight, the baht is strong, folks are economising.

Been a trend for a while.. At first the 'family tourists' visiting patong.. Wandering along gawking at the ladyboys, buying a sarong, maybe a beer or two but then off with the kids to the hotel by 10.. Compared to the sailor on shore leave demographic, offshore oil and security types who would whoop it up through a night of bell rings and bar fines.. Sure many will say they dont want 'that sort' anyway.. But that sort powered the Patong economy.. the slow creep means prices had to rise to keep paying key money and leases.. The wild guys moved on and this became more a 'look dont touch' kind of town and now you have empty bar sois (Eric is even closing for the summer I hear !!) and the knock on effect of the girls leaving for patts or asking crazy drink and fees from a different breed of traveler.

Now after the family market we lean even further with the expansion of the indian, russian and chinese tourists.. Great if you have something they want and will pay for ?? But probably not so great for the majority of businesses.. So to keep turnover similar you need more of them, more strain to the roads, to the services, to the ecology.. Its more work for less reward, and eating up the island in a way it cant come back from.

Sure theres a cashed up Surin type beach club set.. But is there enough to drive the whole island ?? And to keep pace with the frantic rate at which new rooms, boxy condos and other concrete boxes are being added ??

Good post LivinLOS. I couldn't agree more. You sum it up perfectly.

I don't know why such posts are on the "Phuket - A Pessimist's Paradise" thread.

They would be more appropriate on a "Phuket - The Current Situation" thread, because it really is as you describe.

[Colonel_Mustard]

It probably doesn't deserve to but I think Phuket will come out of it just fine.

[NamKangMan]

It probably doesn't deserve to but I think Phuket will come out of it just fine.

"Come out" of what? I thought everything was fine here. :)

[NamKangMan]

@NKM

"Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

What I meant is that it is an impression of the overall picture, not the overall picture itself.

Interesting to read of what you feel to be the positive aspects of life here. Thank you.

You may have to clarify for me.

My observations are first hand. My conversations with business owners are first hand.

When someone says to me, "There's nobody around. We're putting the place up for sale." I don't think these are "impressions" of struggling businesses, they are first hand accounts of businesses slipping into the red, thus, making them unsustainable.

Of course, not every businesses is struggling, but many are. Is this the "overall picture" or "the picture itself?"

What "picture" would you paint of Phuket to the owners of these businesses?

The overall picture is exactly what we don't seem to have and that is any data on how much tourist $ are being spent these days in comparison to before.

You can find some struggling businesses, there are also businesses that are doing better now than before.

I don't personally think that the Russian and Asian visitors are as cheap as you believe (and again that's only my view from personal experience). I think they just spend their money on things other than those that Westerner's typically spent on). It would be nice to get some real independent data of what the overall picture is. We know tourism numbers are increasing but I don't recall seeing anything about how much they are spending. Hopefully at some time in the near future, such information may become available.

Like I have mentioned, the nice, air conditioned reastaurant selling western meals at around 600, 700, 800 baht, or more, with some alcohol, are struggling.

The 40 baht soup street vendor is doing great business.

So, yes, I agree, some businesses are struggling, whilst others are doing well.

However, the 800 baht restaurant turnover has been replaced by the 40 baht turnover - that's 760 baht less going into the local Phuket economy, and that's only one meal, for one tourist.

Please give examples on what you see the Chinese, Russians and Indans spending their money on.

I am not saying the local Phuket economy is currently n recession - I am saying it's heading into recession, quite quickly.

[Colonel_Mustard]

It probably doesn't deserve to but I think Phuket will come out of it just fine.

"Come out" of what? I thought everything was fine here.

Come out of the global economic mess. I never said everything was fine here. The place has many problems (as do most other places in Thailand and elsewhere).

What I said was I don't think it is doing anywhere nearly as badly as you think from tourism and I don't see any local economic recession. I suspect it is doing ok and as the western economies improve, so will the tourism numbers.

[Colonel_Mustard]

@NKM

"Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

What I meant is that it is an impression of the overall picture, not the overall picture itself.

Interesting to read of what you feel to be the positive aspects of life here. Thank you.

You may have to clarify for me.

My observations are first hand. My conversations with business owners are first hand.

When someone says to me, "There's nobody around. We're putting the place up for sale." I don't think these are "impressions" of struggling businesses, they are first hand accounts of businesses slipping into the red, thus, making them unsustainable.

Of course, not every businesses is struggling, but many are. Is this the "overall picture" or "the picture itself?"

What "picture" would you paint of Phuket to the owners of these businesses?

The overall picture is exactly what we don't seem to have and that is any data on how much tourist $ are being spent these days in comparison to before.

You can find some struggling businesses, there are also businesses that are doing better now than before.

I don't personally think that the Russian and Asian visitors are as cheap as you believe (and again that's only my view from personal experience). I think they just spend their money on things other than those that Westerner's typically spent on). It would be nice to get some real independent data of what the overall picture is. We know tourism numbers are increasing but I don't recall seeing anything about how much they are spending. Hopefully at some time in the near future, such information may become available.

Like I have mentioned, the nice, air conditioned reastaurant selling western meals at around 600, 700, 800 baht, or more, with some alcohol, are struggling.

The 40 baht soup street vendor is doing great business.

So, yes, I agree, some businesses are struggling, whilst others are doing well.

However, the 800 baht restaurant turnover has been replaced by the 40 baht turnover - that's 760 baht less going into the local Phuket economy, and that's only one meal, for one tourist.

Please give examples on what you see the Chinese, Russians and Indans spending their money on.

I am not saying the local Phuket economy is currently n recession - I am saying it's heading into recession, quite quickly.

And I am saying I disagree. I think it is doing ok given the global economic problems and it will continue to do ok overall.

Russians spend plenty on shopping, especially in the department stores, jewellery and food and beverage. Maybe the Russians that head down your way are on a tight budget but there are plenty that aren't. Maybe it's the kind of places you hang out that attract that kind of tourist

Anyway I doubt we're going to agree and until some concrete data is produced saying how many tourist $ are being spent, then we're just going to keep on going in circles.

[NamKangMan]

@ Colonel_Mustard

I would perfer you supply examples, or give of your observations, to back up your statements, rather than attack where I chose to live on the island.

The Thai's will not release reliable data on economic conditions here - you know that. You have to go by other indicators, some of which, I have already posted.

I have seen Russians buying food and alcohol in Big C - Junceylon and in 7/11's and Family Marts.. Is this the food and beverage you speak about? If not, please state what restaurants you have seen the Russians eating in, regularly. Then do the same with the Chinese, and Indians.

I have confirmed what another member has observered, the Banzaan Night BBQ is full of Asians eating street food. A typical bowl of something there is 40 baht.

So, I ask again, what are the Chinese, Russians and Indians spending money on whilist on Phuket? If you can't back up your statement, maybe another member can.

I agree they are here, and in numbers, but they are spending nowhere near what the western tourists used to spend here and that has to be effecting the amount of baht "floating around" in the local Phuket economy. The flow on effect of that will felt in sectors like employment etc etc.

[livinthailandos]

As for phuket there is quite a few things beyond your tourist arrivals, data, nationalities

1. Competition in terms of holiday destination. now you can go anywhere. Not restricted to where you want to go. The destinations must truly put forth effort in all areas to make one want to come

2. Everything now revolves around low cost airlines especially in asia. There making up more of the airport's volume. Although premium carriers will be around the question becomes how long. This being said phuket airport even when done with the expansion will be already over crowded

3. If you were really following the discussions that were going on in regards to western tourist and asian tourists quite a few people going back a few years said its time to diversify your customer market as the usa, uk is broke in a way and the EU model was never going to work period

As for the note of chinese, indians, russians spending money and eat outing, they do spend but they have different tastes, for example for chinese people eating out primarily will be going to be a seafood restaurant, for indians it is going to be primarily indian food at a minimum for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Russians it varies but i've seen them in different restaurants. As for spending, chinese will buy gifts but its for friends and family back home. Russians and Indians - Russians do spend but bit more selective of what they buy and where. Indians are definetly a bit harder to deal with as they have a expectation that thailand is like back home where asking for 50 to 80% discount is the norm and they expect to be treated like there caste system back home.

[Colonel_Mustard]

@ Colonel_Mustard

I would perfer you supply examples, or give of your observations, to back up your statements, rather than attack where I chose to live on the island.

The Thai's will not release reliable data on economic conditions here - you know that. You have to go by other indicators, some of which, I have already posted.

I have seen Russians buying food and alcohol in Big C - Junceylon and in 7/11's and Family Marts.. Is this the food and beverage you speak about? If not, please state what restaurants you have seen the Russians eating in, regularly. Then do the same with the Chinese, and Indians.

I have confirmed what another member has observered, the Banzaan Night BBQ is full of Asians eating street food. A typical bowl of something there is 40 baht.

So, I ask again, what are the Chinese, Russians and Indians spending money on whilist on Phuket? If you can't back up your statement, maybe another member can.

I agree they are here, and in numbers, but they are spending nowhere near what the western tourists used to spend here and that has to be effecting the amount of baht "floating around" in the local Phuket economy. The flow on effect of that will felt in sectors like employment etc etc.

Restaurants and bars in the Laguna and Surin areas. They're pretty much the only places I visit these days for meals out but I'm sure other areas are doing fine too. There was a good post by PhuketRichard on Bill's leaving Phuket thread that went into more detail on where the Russians and Asians are spending(sorry not sure how to quote from other threads)

Also from personal observation and chatting to friends I would say there are more Asians that I remember on the golf courses, increasing numbers of tour vans at the bigger jewellery outlets, day trip tours doing very good business, the outlet mall on the bypass has coaches of Asians keeping it in business, designer wear from Central etc. I also see Russians buying food and alcohol at Big C and 7-11 and guess what? I also saw/see westerners there too.

I've heard stories of this being the quietest low season every year I've been here. I still hear that from some people now but those tend to be businesses targeted at a struggling western market. I have no doubt that some businesses are folding/struggling but I don't believe that it as much to do with Phuket itself but that it is general for Thailand.

I didn't attack where you live or even comment on it. I commented on it maybe being the type of places you hang out at which I think was clearly a intended as humour. Sorry you didn't take it that way.

[NamKangMan]

@ Colonel_Mustard

I would perfer you supply examples, or give of your observations, to back up your statements, rather than attack where I chose to live on the island.

The Thai's will not release reliable data on economic conditions here - you know that. You have to go by other indicators, some of which, I have already posted.

I have seen Russians buying food and alcohol in Big C - Junceylon and in 7/11's and Family Marts.. Is this the food and beverage you speak about? If not, please state what restaurants you have seen the Russians eating in, regularly. Then do the same with the Chinese, and Indians.

I have confirmed what another member has observered, the Banzaan Night BBQ is full of Asians eating street food. A typical bowl of something there is 40 baht.

So, I ask again, what are the Chinese, Russians and Indians spending money on whilist on Phuket? If you can't back up your statement, maybe another member can.

I agree they are here, and in numbers, but they are spending nowhere near what the western tourists used to spend here and that has to be effecting the amount of baht "floating around" in the local Phuket economy. The flow on effect of that will felt in sectors like employment etc etc.

Restaurants and bars in the Laguna and Surin areas. They're pretty much the only places I visit these days for meals out but I'm sure other areas are doing fine too. There was a good post by PhuketRichard on Bill's leaving Phuket thread that went into more detail on where the Russians and Asians are spending(sorry not sure how to quote from other threads)

Also from personal observation and chatting to friends I would say there are more Asians that I remember on the golf courses, increasing numbers of tour vans at the bigger jewellery outlets, day trip tours doing very good business, the outlet mall on the bypass has coaches of Asians keeping it in business, designer wear from Central etc. I also see Russians buying food and alcohol at Big C and 7-11 and guess what? I also saw/see westerners there too.

I've heard stories of this being the quietest low season every year I've been here. I still hear that from some people now but those tend to be businesses targeted at a struggling western market. I have no doubt that some businesses are folding/struggling but I don't believe that it as much to do with Phuket itself but that it is general for Thailand.

I didn't attack where you live or even comment on it. I commented on it maybe being the type of places you hang out at which I think was clearly a intended as humour. Sorry you didn't take it that way.

So, some restaurants that you frequent have some westerners in them, but no Russians and Asians. What about all the other restaurant you walk/ride/drive past - much happening in them?

You have directly observed more Asians on the golf course - fair call.

The tour vans at the jewellery shops are just making their mandatory commission stop. Nothing new about that. This doesn't mean they actually buy anything.

I agree they do a lot of day trips, but to my knowledge, these day trips, and evening shows, are part of their package holiday, paid for back in their home country.

The outlet malls and designer clothes shopping I can not comment on, but around Jungceylon, I have not seen any serious spending by Asians or Russians and carrying bags from the brand name shops.

Yes, the Russians and Chinese shop for food and alcohol in Big C, just like the westerners - the difference is, they are tourists, and the westerners are expats.

I agree, global economic conditions are having an impact on tourism to Phuket, but I also think, quite simply, Phuket has lost a large slice of the western market, but that is something we will have to wait to confirm in the future.

I would really like to compare Pattaya and Hua Hin occupancy rates to that of Phuket.

[Colonel_Mustard]

@NKM

I meant there are plenty of Russians and Asians in the bars and restaurants on the N W Coast (quite a few westerners too).

The Russians and Asians buy a lot of jewellery in comparison to their window shopping western counterparts apparently. Both also spend on designer labels from personal observation.

As far as I know the day trips are booked locally (well I know quite a number are).

I buy food at Tesco's or 7-11s when in BKK at times and I'm sure plenty of western and Russian tourists do too.

I would expect Phuket's loss of the western market to be roughly in line with that of Thailand in general (as indicated from the Finnish survey posted earlier).

At the end of the day we're both seeing different things and getting different impressions which would perhaps suggest the north of the island is maybe attracting wealthier Russian/Asian clientele.

[IrishIvan]

@ Colonel_Mustard

I would perfer you supply examples, or give of your observations, to back up your statements, rather than attack where I chose to live on the island.

The Thai's will not release reliable data on economic conditions here - you know that. You have to go by other indicators, some of which, I have already posted.

I have seen Russians buying food and alcohol in Big C - Junceylon and in 7/11's and Family Marts.. Is this the food and beverage you speak about? If not, please state what restaurants you have seen the Russians eating in, regularly. Then do the same with the Chinese, and Indians.

I have confirmed what another member has observered, the Banzaan Night BBQ is full of Asians eating street food. A typical bowl of something there is 40 baht.

So, I ask again, what are the Chinese, Russians and Indians spending money on whilist on Phuket? If you can't back up your statement, maybe another member can.

I agree they are here, and in numbers, but they are spending nowhere near what the western tourists used to spend here and that has to be effecting the amount of baht "floating around" in the local Phuket economy. The flow on effect of that will felt in sectors like employment etc etc.

They spend a lot on tours to Phi Phi and Jame Bond island (spelling mistake intended)

[hansgruber]

I thought I had a skewed view of Phuket. Thanks guys for making me realize I'm not as tainted as you.