beb Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 There are too much people who believe they will miss the boat with Bitcoin. A classic trap. I wish i knew of some short positions i could buy. I would 'invest' some in that. Bitcoin without the drugs trade is pretty small. It is not even anonymous, it is the best traceable currency ever! The drug enforcers dream come true. And i don't count 99% of the merchants who only use Bitcoin as a payment system that transfers directly into their own currency as companies that use Bitcoin. They just use the irreversibility of the transaction to their advantage. Unless that is changed buyers will prefer credit card and paypal. Ultimately it is what buyers prefer that counts. Bitcoin at 50US$ within a few months. I think btc will go down. Historically it has always had its ups and downs but ever trending higher. When it goes down then its basically on sale. Of course I know a lot of people who were waiting for it to go down when it was at $100 before they bought. And I bought at $200 before the big crash when everybody screamed disaster. It was a disaster as that coin has only gone up 200% + since. So it will go down and then it will go up and on and on. Others have already said this but if you understand btc and believe in the technology then the large climbs are expected and necessary. As the user base grows, then the value follows. Wait until India gets on board. I expect a lot of hiccups along the way and I'll probably lose a lot of sleep but I believe that the technology is massively profound in how it will change things in more ways than we can imagine. Even if you think btc is a tulip holding ponzi scheme with nigerian princes on top, the impact of this tech is going to be enormous. If you only know of bitcoin because you saw a report about the price climb, then maybe you should read up on what's really going on. If you don't understand btc then this all sounds like magic, similar to how some person from the 14th century would consider a telephone. It's not magic, it's math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UbonOz Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Looking at a six month chart. I don't see volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brit1984 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 lots of talk of factors that could affect price either way but all that also depends how well the current price compares to value does anyone know what is the annualized equivalent of the current run-rate (USD) value of daily Bitcoin currency transactions? and what's the (USD) value of all Bitcoins in circulation? and by what proportion will this increase through "mining" each year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beb Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Looking at a six month chart. I don't see volatility. In april it ran up to around $250 and then crashed to around $75. There have been other such wild fluctuations. The price is going up quickly now but fluctuating at times by 20% or so. This run up of the value is going to bring in the kind of people looking for ways to create turmoil and take advantage of crashes and rises. The last big crash was after a never ending series of ddos attacks on mtgox. It's a different world now with Mtgox's share of the market much lower and hopefully a much more robust system. $5 million worth of btc disappeared from a Chinese exchange last week (and I think the people that ran it). Anything of value is going to attract bad actors and btc isn't immune. Plus there are a whole bunch of people new to it that really don't understand it beyond something they want to make money in. I think those people are much more likely to react with panic selling if anything happens. None of us have a crystal ball and I hope things just keep climbing but I think it's realistic to understand that there are always opportunities for negative events to crop up. The question is how we'll react when they do. I've held and/or bought during panic situations and so far it's worked out really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NomadJoe Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 As I read this and with some help from a friend, the headlines are not in line with the actual facts. The "bitcoin officials" are a bitcoin exchange and there wasn't a law passed making bitcoins illegal. But there is a legal issue to be resolved. I am repeatedly impressed by bitcoin experts who read about it one time when it was in the news that time when they were drinking coffee that time at that place in that other place once. Yes. The "Foreign Exchange Administration and Policy Department" is not a legislative body. They can not ban something. They can, however, interpret law. But all they are saying is there is no law. Something is wrong with a person that can say something is illegal because there is a lack of laws. That's not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kawaiimomo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 As I read this and with some help from a friend, the headlines are not in line with the actual facts. The "bitcoin officials" are a bitcoin exchange and there wasn't a law passed making bitcoins illegal. But there is a legal issue to be resolved. I am repeatedly impressed by bitcoin experts who read about it one time when it was in the news that time when they were drinking coffee that time at that place in that other place once. Yes. The "Foreign Exchange Administration and Policy Department" is not a legislative body. They can not ban something. They can, however, interpret law. But all they are saying is there is no law. Something is wrong with a person that can say something is illegal because there is a lack of laws. That's not how it works. However, that didn't stop mods from closing a thread discussing BTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UbonOz Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Looking at a six month chart. I don't see volatility. In april it ran up to around $250 and then crashed to around $75. There have been other such wild fluctuations. The price is going up quickly now but fluctuating at times by 20% or so. This run up of the value is going to bring in the kind of people looking for ways to create turmoil and take advantage of crashes and rises. The last big crash was after a never ending series of ddos attacks on mtgox. It's a different world now with Mtgox's share of the market much lower and hopefully a much more robust system. $5 million worth of btc disappeared from a Chinese exchange last week (and I think the people that ran it). Anything of value is going to attract bad actors and btc isn't immune. Plus there are a whole bunch of people new to it that really don't understand it beyond something they want to make money in. I think those people are much more likely to react with panic selling if anything happens. None of us have a crystal ball and I hope things just keep climbing but I think it's realistic to understand that there are always opportunities for negative events to crop up. The question is how we'll react when they do. I've held and/or bought during panic situations and so far it's worked out really well. If you look at BTC as a long term investment it is not volatile, short term yes. It's great buying at a discount. People that have lost have been keeping their BTC in exchanges, a third party. Not dissimilar to a bank, once you have deposited your funds you no longer own the funds, banks can do as they wish, Cyprus comes to mind, and there will be more of the same. If you use BTC QT, Electrum or similar, a downloaded client, you are reasonably safe if you take the appropriate security precautions, cold wallets etc. BTC is knocking on the door of US$500.00, interesting days ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NomadJoe Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 As I read this and with some help from a friend, the headlines are not in line with the actual facts. The "bitcoin officials" are a bitcoin exchange and there wasn't a law passed making bitcoins illegal. But there is a legal issue to be resolved. I am repeatedly impressed by bitcoin experts who read about it one time when it was in the news that time when they were drinking coffee that time at that place in that other place once. Yes. The "Foreign Exchange Administration and Policy Department" is not a legislative body. They can not ban something. They can, however, interpret law. But all they are saying is there is no law. Something is wrong with a person that can say something is illegal because there is a lack of laws. That's not how it works. However, that didn't stop mods from closing a thread discussing BTC. Premature no doubt, but with the state of things in Thailand regarding the internet I understand why they need to err on the side of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NomadJoe Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 In late-2011, the exchange rate of the bitcoin crashed from over $30 in June to below $2 in October. Just one of many good reasons to keep a distance from them-- FYI it has already fully recovered from that crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khun Jean Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakweb Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 (edited) ok now I understand Khun Jean, showing the source of your information reveals much about your feelings and thought process Edited November 17, 2013 by oakweb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beb Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 This is like me trying to argue quantum physics except I'm smart enough to know that I don't know enough about it to offer an intelligent argument. Just because you've heard about something or read a story doesn't mean you understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Looking at a six month chart. I don't see volatility. In april it ran up to around $250 and then crashed to around $75. There have been other such wild fluctuations. The price is going up quickly now but fluctuating at times by 20% or so. This run up of the value is going to bring in the kind of people looking for ways to create turmoil and take advantage of crashes and rises. The last big crash was after a never ending series of ddos attacks on mtgox. It's a different world now with Mtgox's share of the market much lower and hopefully a much more robust system. $5 million worth of btc disappeared from a Chinese exchange last week (and I think the people that ran it). Anything of value is going to attract bad actors and btc isn't immune. Plus there are a whole bunch of people new to it that really don't understand it beyond something they want to make money in. I think those people are much more likely to react with panic selling if anything happens. None of us have a crystal ball and I hope things just keep climbing but I think it's realistic to understand that there are always opportunities for negative events to crop up. The question is how we'll react when they do. I've held and/or bought during panic situations and so far it's worked out really well. If you look at BTC as a long term investment it is not volatile, short term yes. It's great buying at a discount. People that have lost have been keeping their BTC in exchanges, a third party. Not dissimilar to a bank, once you have deposited your funds you no longer own the funds, banks can do as they wish, Cyprus comes to mind, and there will be more of the same. If you use BTC QT, Electrum or similar, a downloaded client, you are reasonably safe if you take the appropriate security precautions, cold wallets etc. BTC is knocking on the door of US$500.00, interesting days ahead. Hmm, interesting. You're the only person I've seen describe the price of bitcoin as not volatile. I mean great backers and experts of bitcoin that make their living in that space. I guess it's an issue of perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khun Jean Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 ok now I understand Khun Jean, showing the source of your information reveals much about your feelings and thought process It figures that you would think that. So predictable. Shall we mark this moment in time and just see how it goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakweb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 agree to disagree? sure had that decided many posts ago I'm excited what the future holds for Crypto Currency, Bitcoins or others. I do think as others, it has many more ups and downs to come. My initial investments largely is more as an Asic miner, not as investor into purchasing Bitcoins. Currently I'm mining around 2.4BTC a day ($1179.00USD) at a speed of 2.33 TH/s, and have no power or A/C costs of any kind. My hardware investment is 50% returned to date, I have not yet decided if I will take the cost of hardware out and cash that in, probably not. Lets hope that in 5 years Bitcoins are common place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thailand Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The Chinese are the ones currently boosting Bitcoins, they could easily pull the rug and jump to Litecoins or whatever. Interesting to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 for a asset class that has so much inherent risk it is bizarre that risk aversion / paranoia is often cited (and often really is) a motivation for its "investors" bitcoin has first mover advantage like any other new product - however, followers often end up on top (and often render the first mover obsolete) if bitcoin gains global and widespread recognition/ popularity as the preferred medium of exchange for online transactions (and acceptance by governments/ law enforcement agencies) those who buy bitcoins now stand to potentially make a very good return (depending on how much of that potential is already priced in) if on the other hand, bitcoin does not achieve this, those same "investors" may well lose all/ nearly all of their investment Brit1984 I don't believe that Bitcoin is needing acceptance from any agency, it is already gaining in popularity with merchants. All signs indicate that agencies do want to step in to put some type of control (much like they want to control the Internet) but not sure what any approval they can provide to a system that is in place, and operating fine. As an online merchant I welcome it, as will many others, regardless of what agencies think of it. much of the internet is controlled but most governments / law enforcement agencies do not want to ban the internet altogether (although in some countries they have done so quite successfully) banning the use of bitcoin in certain jurisdictions would pose serious problems for its viability / value - and although some online operators will find ways around the law (as do many other cyber criminals) the value of bitcoin would be much lower if using it is illegal although it would have to become a lot more popular than it is now for any such governments / agencies to really care to start passing laws, allocating police resource, etc Well it appears that the US government is in fact trying to figure out how to regulate bitcoins.... http://swampland.time.com/2013/11/17/bitcoin-comes-to-washington-mondays-hearing-is-just-the-beginning/ From the article: "The question of jurisdiction will remain up in the air until Washington can settle on a definition for bitcoin. Is it a security? A currency? A commodity?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakweb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 http://www.cnbc.com/id/101205416 $600 now, not sure what the outcome of all their analysis will be.. but one thing for sure, the more they talk about it the more people learn about it and may use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kawaiimomo Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 300 USD increase in some 10 days :-D not sure if you guys know it, but I just discovered http://WWW.fiatleak.com a real time world map showing bitcoin buys, China is really spending money (maybe related to the corruption levels there). Do you think today's hearing in Washington will impact the price? I believe a big drop is on its way, this growth can be sustained for long, I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakweb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 $50,000 +, if I would have just bought coins I'd have $172,300.00USD for my investment Even at current prices, with China and Baidu.. I'd say it's worth a gamble at $645 now.. but WOW $645, maybe wait a while Hardware miners are all waiting lists now to get anything of good speed, won't be out for 2-3 months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiangmaisurprise Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 agree to disagree? sure had that decided many posts ago I'm excited what the future holds for Crypto Currency, Bitcoins or others. I do think as others, it has many more ups and downs to come. My initial investments largely is more as an Asic miner, not as investor into purchasing Bitcoins. Currently I'm mining around 2.4BTC a day ($1179.00USD) at a speed of 2.33 TH/s, and have no power or A/C costs of any kind. My hardware investment is 50% returned to date, I have not yet decided if I will take the cost of hardware out and cash that in, probably not. Lets hope that in 5 years Bitcoins are common place! how much did this hardware cost ? can you give us a rough idea of the hardware specifications? No A/C cost?? Must be paying another company per TH/s with the cost built in and letting their miners do all the work. Easiest way to mine right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakweb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 no I don't do that, not sure those are a good deal either I have space at a data center that is unused, so no cost.. cost is absorbed with other business I have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakweb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 replicating meaning purchasing more miners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakweb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Bitcoin has built in checks and balances, google it and read a few articles this one is good to start with:http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/09/25/3855973.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Are they holding a BTC convention on the Venetian floor in Macau? Human beings are hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beb Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 replicating meaning purchasing more miners? what i am saying is this, there has to be a limit to the top end price of bitcoins. if you can make an above average return on investment then whats stopping everyone else from jumping in too. so someone needs to do the sums and work out what that price is if you are risking big dollars in this business. You don't understand bitcoin. There are 7 billion people in the world. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins. Each coin is infinitely divisible (I know the current limit but it can be changed) so if you're looking for top end price then you have a long ways before you're going to get there. For functionality, the price of a bitcoin doesn't matter to somebody that wants to use it. What I mean is, if I want to send $500 worth of btc to the US, I don't care how much bitcoin I need to buy as long as it has the same value on the other end. For instance, several months ago I transferred a few hundred dollars to the US when btc cost about $40 each. When I cashed it in to fiat, I got around the same amount (ok more). If it had cost more, then I would have exchanged my money for fewer bitcoin but had the same functionality. If a bitcoin costs $1 or $1,000, that's not my concern as far as using it the way that we all hope it will be used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Use of the word "fiat" is a strong indicator of idiocy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 replicating meaning purchasing more miners? what i am saying is this, there has to be a limit to the top end price of bitcoins. if you can make an above average return on investment then whats stopping everyone else from jumping in too. so someone needs to do the sums and work out what that price is if you are risking big dollars in this business. You don't understand bitcoin. There are 7 billion people in the world. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins. But what about https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/List_of_alternative_cryptocurrencies They aren't as popular as Bitcoin because they aren't getting the media coverage which creates a feedback loop. People are buying bitcoin because the price is going up so the price goes higher so more people buy bitcoin so the price goes higher so more people buy bitcoin so the price goes higher. You really think the price doubling in a week is not a sign of mania? All those people just started buying heroin on the internet or are they gambling that the price will keep rising even though they don't have any real use for bitcoin beyond speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beb Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 replicating meaning purchasing more miners? what i am saying is this, there has to be a limit to the top end price of bitcoins. if you can make an above average return on investment then whats stopping everyone else from jumping in too. so someone needs to do the sums and work out what that price is if you are risking big dollars in this business. You don't understand bitcoin. There are 7 billion people in the world. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins. But what about https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/List_of_alternative_cryptocurrencies They aren't as popular as Bitcoin because they aren't getting the media coverage which creates a feedback loop. People are buying bitcoin because the price is going up so the price goes higher so more people buy bitcoin so the price goes higher so more people buy bitcoin so the price goes higher. You really think the price doubling in a week is not a sign of mania? All those people just started buying heroin on the internet or are they gambling that the price will keep rising even though they don't have any real use for bitcoin beyond speculation. You must be a lot of fun at holidays. I hope you have a front porch so you can yell at the kids to get off your lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Here is the problem with Bitcoin: There is nothing stopping an infinite number of new cryptocurrencies from being created so the currency itself is only of value if it is backed by something. For example, APPLE CRYPTO CURRENCY that can be redeemed for Apple merchandise and music is something that logically works. You could use the money to pay your gardener and he can pay the butcher. Bitcoin is an interesting idea but logically does not work. Just realize that everyone here keeps pointing out that the quantity of BTC is limited but not the quantity of cryptocurrencies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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