New storm brews on the political horizon: Thai opinion

[webfact]

STOPPAGE TIME
New storm brews on the political horizon
Tulsathit Taptim

BANGKOK: -- One wrong move by the government and it all can go to hell. That's the summary we can deduce from political analysis in a Thai-language newspaper. The good news is the analysis is in a column known for its sensational lines. The bad news is, it's a newspaper sympathetic to the Yingluck administration.

August, hopefully, will "ease" Thais into a new round of political tension. Or it will mercilessly throw us into new turmoil without any countdown. Whatever lies in store, we had better brace ourselves for a crash-landing, and the best we can hope for is that the impact is not fatal.

All this is because some people want "reconciliation". If that sounds ironic, let's hear it in full: What should we do if violence breaks out because of a bill or bills seeking to forgive and forget past violence and those who were involved, possibly including its perpetrators? Should new wrongdoers also be pardoned in the future because, after all, they fit the principles of the amnesty and reconciliation bills? Their violence will be political and totally related to the Thai crisis.

It's getting confusing even for ardent followers of Thai politics. Why are the Democrats publicly backing a bill, drafted by relatives of "victims" of the Rajadamnoen "massacre", that would omit Abhisit Vejjijiva and Suthep Thaugsuban from amnesty? Why are some of the red-shirts opposed to the relatives' bill and find a Pheu Thai MP's bill more favourable? What are the key differences between the two bills? Where do the yellow shirts stand?

To answer those questions, the Democrats are "showing their spirit" and the red shirts want a wholesale amnesty because the relatives' bill would leave it open for arsonists who targeted private properties to be punished.

The yellow shirts will oppose any amnesty bill, apparently because although Thaksin Shinawatra is unlikely to benefit, an amnesty bill in Parliament could open the door for a larger scheme of political pardoning already incorporated in one or two so-called "reconciliation" bills. The anti-amnesty movement - which seems to be a loose alliance among the yellow shirts, "white masks", multi-colours and the Spring News team - points to a recently leaked audio clip featuring Thaksin's voice to back its claim that a government-backed pardoning programme cannot be trusted.

People can kill for power or money. This amnesty saga features both elements, and a lot of Thais seem to realise that. More than 90 per cent of Thais want political peace, a recent opinion poll predictably showed. That the opposite of what they want is looming large is not a surprise, though. The pollsters did their surveys in shopping malls, university campuses and markets. Sadly, that "majority" can't have a say on what bills should be considered by Parliament in August, or what true "reconciliation" should look like.

Thailand gets all mixed up over the term "democratic mandate". Is it justifiable for the ruling party to push for a potentially explosive amnesty scheme, even if it could lead to violence? Some people will say "Why not?" citing the basic principle that election winners are supposed to keep their promises. But democracy is also about political responsibility. Democracy allows a policy U-turn when damage might overshadow benefits.

Let's see what kind of damage is possible if the government insists on effecting an "amnesty" scheme. The ultimate loser could be our already fragile democracy, the very thing that amnesty advocates claim the scheme will help reinvigorate. Make no mistake, a fair and just amnesty programme can help Thai democracy, but nothing tabled so far has been accepted by both sides of the political divide.

Without amnesty, is Thailand's a half-baked democracy? Again, there are two sides to the same coin. It's half-baked if an honest, popular ex-ruler remains a victim of injustice. It's anything but if a sister of a dishonest albeit popular ex-ruler can serve as prime minister, backed by solid grassroots support. The thing is, even if it's really half-baked, why risk throwing it all away? Amnesty can wait and it should wait.

We need to start somewhere, amnesty advocates insist. They overlook the possibility that an uncomfortable compromise may already exist. Democracy has done its job by installing the sister of a convict as prime minister, whereas the rule of law has been guarding against controversial use of a democratic mandate to whitewash him. This marriage of inconvenience may be the best we can get, and the consequences may be direr if the uneasy balance is tilted.

Timing is crucial. And "timing" here is not about choosing the best moment to catch enemies off-guard. That is by no means a way to reconcile a strife-torn country. The only good time for reconciliation is when each party stops finger pointing and starts admitting that it, too, is responsible for the crisis. That is not happening, and it's the main reason why one wrong move could be disastrous.


-- The Nation 2013-07-31

[dru2]

This government has made nothing but wrong moves since it bludgeoned and bribed its was to power.

[bigbamboo]

So it seems even the Thai people can't be fooled all of the time.

[GeorgeO]

Good to see someone else showing concerns similar to those in my recent posts. As I noted when Abhisit made that wonderful, and very clever, gesture of supporting the "people's bill", this government ignores the bill at its peril.

If the PTP chooses to disregard the people's bill, and instead, push through its own bill, then that will clearly demonstrate that the focus of the government is not on helping those who came out in support of the red shirt movement, but instead, on bringing their exiled leader back to Thailand.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, that will prove to be the beginning of the end for this government, and will put paid, once and for all, to this nonsensical situation of a country being run from outside by a convict in self-imposed exile.

[Baerboxer]

Good to see someone else showing concerns similar to those in my recent posts. As I noted when Abhisit made that wonderful, and very clever, gesture of supporting the "people's bill", this government ignores the bill at its peril.

If the PTP chooses to disregard the people's bill, and instead, push through its own bill, then that will clearly demonstrate that the focus of the government is not on helping those who came out in support of the red shirt movement, but instead, on bringing their exiled leader back to Thailand.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, that will prove to be the beginning of the end for this government, and will put paid, once and for all, to this nonsensical situation of a country being run from outside by a convict in self-imposed exile.

How many other countries in the world would tolerate a government that disregards the law, admits to lies, gives unbelievable and contradictory statements regularly and is oenly run by a convicted fugitive criminal? How many would tolerate government ministers openly travelling to meet with said criminal and put up with senior police officers doing the same? Five cabinet reshuffles in 2 years, ministers selected after returning from serving bans for fraud, no performance report to parliament or the people, unable or unwilling to provide basic finance and accounting information. No sign of votes of no confidence or impeachment. A PM who is not the real PM but is now also the DM and travels more than the FM?

This is a real pantomime but sadly no one appears interested, willing or able to do anything about it. The family grip is tightening. Democracy - if you like the one party state version, run by one family and its cronies then no worries. China, Cambodia, Singapore, North Korea........... the Chinese may well favour this type of "democracy" in Thailand, as long as a freindly family is in control. There is always the risk with real democracy that you may get some honest, ethical, law abiding people in government who won't be intimidated or bribed into towing the party line.

If the big boss has relocated to Beijing then I would think Uncle Sam and the CIA are beginning to wonder. Remember Hilary Clinton's pro-democracy pro-Yingluck speeches when she visited during the floods? Talk of US helping to re-build police stations to keep "the democratic rule of law" if there were any issues. Wonder what she and Obama's administration think now, 2 years on.

[Emptyset]

This is a real pantomime but sadly no one appears interested, willing or able to do anything about it. The family grip is tightening. Democracy - if you like the one party state version, run by one family and its cronies then no worries. China, Cambodia, Singapore, North Korea........... the Chinese may well favour this type of "democracy" in Thailand, as long as a freindly family is in control. There is always the risk with real democracy that you may get some honest, ethical, law abiding people in government who won't be intimidated or bribed into towing the party line.

Where is the evidence that 'the family grip is tightening'? The only time Thailand has been in danger of the one party state authoritarian type of democracy was circa 2004, at the height of Thaksin's power and popularity. Since then it's been pretty pluralistic, with various groups out on the street, bringing down governments (or killed en masse), forces in flux, different powers waxing and waning and coming into contention. If it was as you say, Thaksin would've been back years ago. As it stands, he's no closer to coming back than he was in 2008 (probably less so, in fact).

Posters on here seem to veer between two extremes (often the same poster will oscillate between two positions, depending on which day of the week it is): one is as above, that the only 'regime' that compares with this one is the Nazis, and that only a coup or some sort of outside intervention can stop Thailand falling into a family dynasty based dictatorship - PT are apparently 'ruthless' and crushing 'all opposition with an iron fist etc. If I had to choose between extremes, I'd actually err more towards the other pole, which is that PT are incompetent, have no real grip on things, that they can't get anything done because protest groups are constantly on the verge of forcing them out and are growing in number even as we speak, that Thai people in general have begun to see how they've been deceived, that even if Thaksin did come back, he'd soon be killed anyway, so it'd all be alright... the latter is also a massive exaggeration, but I feel it's slightly closer to reality than the former 'one party dictatorship' position.

Not only is Thaksin growing older, but I feel he's also becoming more distant from the situation and less of a prescence in the Thai political imaginary all the time. He's gradually losing relevance imo. I actually agree with the posters that point to the fact that the majority of the country doesn't support PT (not even half), and that Thaksin is a lot less popular than he used to be. I do think that most Thai people would agree with that though, and that's the reason that they're not as worried as Baerboxer and don't necessarily want anything 'done' in terms of removing this government forcefully just yet. I think the majority would favour a bit of stability over more chaos and violence in the streets. That's why I'm not reading much into these protests. They have a right to make their position clear and I support them doing that. But I don't see them as a real threat to the government unless the government does something really stupid like trying to force through an amnesty for Thaksin in the near future. That's the only thing that will garner enough mass support to be a serious threat. He needs to stay away for at least the full term of this government. If he just kept things low key and was patient, I'd think he'd quietly be allowed back in a few years down the line. But that's what he should've been doing since 2006. If he had, he might already be back now.

[Frank James]

Wish I had one baht for every time somebody on here uses the word "criminal", even in threads that have no connection with the "criminal" in question.

[Phatcharanan]

Wish I had one baht for every time somebody on here uses the word "criminal", even in threads that have no connection with the "criminal" in question.

[hellodolly]

Good to see someone else showing concerns similar to those in my recent posts. As I noted when Abhisit made that wonderful, and very clever, gesture of supporting the "people's bill", this government ignores the bill at its peril.

If the PTP chooses to disregard the people's bill, and instead, push through its own bill, then that will clearly demonstrate that the focus of the government is not on helping those who came out in support of the red shirt movement, but instead, on bringing their exiled leader back to Thailand.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, that will prove to be the beginning of the end for this government, and will put paid, once and for all, to this nonsensical situation of a country being run from outside by a convict in self-imposed exile.

How many other countries in the world would tolerate a government that disregards the law, admits to lies, gives unbelievable and contradictory statements regularly and is oenly run by a convicted fugitive criminal? How many would tolerate government ministers openly travelling to meet with said criminal and put up with senior police officers doing the same? Five cabinet reshuffles in 2 years, ministers selected after returning from serving bans for fraud, no performance report to parliament or the people, unable or unwilling to provide basic finance and accounting information. No sign of votes of no confidence or impeachment. A PM who is not the real PM but is now also the DM and travels more than the FM?

This is a real pantomime but sadly no one appears interested, willing or able to do anything about it. The family grip is tightening. Democracy - if you like the one party state version, run by one family and its cronies then no worries. China, Cambodia, Singapore, North Korea........... the Chinese may well favour this type of "democracy" in Thailand, as long as a freindly family is in control. There is always the risk with real democracy that you may get some honest, ethical, law abiding people in government who won't be intimidated or bribed into towing the party line.

If the big boss has relocated to Beijing then I would think Uncle Sam and the CIA are beginning to wonder. Remember Hilary Clinton's pro-democracy pro-Yingluck speeches when she visited during the floods? Talk of US helping to re-build police stations to keep "the democratic rule of law" if there were any issues. Wonder what she and Obama's administration think now, 2 years on.

Well what you say has a lot of truth in it. but you are really out of touch with what other countries would allow. Remember that on the corruption index Thailand is tied for 88 out of 174 plus.

That leaves a lot of room for other countries. To not only allow it but would find it a relief from what they have now.

You claim

"There is always the risk with real democracy that you may get some honest, ethical, law abiding people in government who won't be intimidated or bribed into towing the party"

I agree.

But the problem there is the party will only allow so much independence and then squash them. They must toe the party line the majority of the time or they will become completely ineffectual.

[ray23]

It's not good. But it's nothing new, it seems to me that Thailand has pretty much like this in the 11 years I have been here. But, until my home country the U.S. I don't think I have much room to be critical of Thailand. All and all I would say democracy is pretty messy stuff even more so in the early years.

I hope they get through this. But, I do have my doubts. What happened to all those loyal supporters who burnt down buildings most are serving jail terms. The rice deal real kick in the teeth to farmers didn't take them long to back off that.. Two trillion baht loan right now great idea, good for the markets is it good for the average Thai and Thailand I have my doubts about that as well.

But when they run pools here graft is OK as long a they get their cut of the action. So maybe Thai's really have the Thailand they want. None of these groups as far as I can tell really represent the majority of the people any longer. The Issan farmer is soothed for the moment. But, I doubt that will last.

Anyway i wish nothing but good for Thailand.

[khunken]

Thaksin is becoming less relevant - says a poster earlier in this thread. Wrong & a sign of not keeping up with the local news, gossip & scandal(s).

For starters he runs the government admitted by both PTP and the opposition. He sets policy (amnesty for breakfast), plans the (failing) subsidy schemes, appoints the cabinet & makes sure that semi-political (e.g. police) appointments are family or acolytes. In short a quasi-dictator.

You only have to see the results of a Skype session (Admin court or CC intimidation) or the number of party & police big-wigs running to HK or wherever the DL is.

Amnesty season is now upon us and PTP have promulgated the Security act (as per the Bangkok Post) and we can await the merging & amending of the various bills to ensure that Thaksin is included somehow.

Yes, it's reconciliation or else time.