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SOUTH CRISIS
Govt urged to respond to BRN's 'gamble'
Hataikarn Treesuwan
The Nation

Delay on special-region plan could embolden hardliners: academic

BANGKOK: -- THE PRE-CONDITION set by the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) calling for the creation of a redefined "special administrative region" covering the three southernmost provinces is a matter that must be concluded quickly, according to an academic familiar with the violence in the deep South.

He warned that there are other insurgents who still want to pursue their separatist causes through violence, and may potentially rebel against BRN senior members who prefer the special region option as a way out.

Proposing the idea of the special administrative region with an added term "under the Thai Constitution", the BRN has retracted its stance against security authorities, which should consider and heed this redefined condition, said Mathus Anuvatudom, of the Office of Peace and Governance, at King Prajadhipok' Institute.

"Adding the term 'under the Thai Constitution' to the special administrative region is a big gamble by BRN senior members, including chief BRN negotiator Taib Hassan. It may lead to the BRN disintegrating, because other groups of insurgents who still want [the three provinces] to break away [from Thailand] do exist and are ready to rebel against the BRN," he explained.

"Strategically, the Thai military and security authorities need to support Hassan on the BRN's redefined precondition by following it and four other preconditions gradually," he said.

"It is important to show to all insurgent groups that an ongoing peace dialogue between Thai authorities and the BRN - with Hassan leading them - will be beneficial to them all. Otherwise new insurgent groups might emerge and rebel against the BRN - which would lead to a large-scale problem beyond the control of Thai authorities. Such problems emerged during the Ramadan truce, when attacks continued outside BRN's authority.

The BRN's precondition of a special administrative body had not been clearly defined, prompting strong opposition by the military and anticipated rejection by Thai society dismayed by regular violence against civilians in the deep South. Until the BRN added its reference to the Constitution recently, Thai authorities seemed to have found a possible solution in models similar to those run by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration or Pattaya City.

A special administrative region in a BMA format would not be possible in the near future because there are many legal procedures in its way. But the election of a Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre (SBPAC) director is possible from candidates based in the deep South, to show the BRN that Thai authorities are sincere, Mathus suggested.

Progress could be made public through bilingual signs or directions posted at government offices, two sets of history books for study in schools, without any being touted as right or wrong. In terms of administration, a list of criteria on performances for public services - on medical or educational issues, or capacity of tax revenues or efficiency of tax collection, may follow - initially at local administrative bodies - and later for the entire special administrative region.


-- The Nation 2013-09-30

[theblether]

Give them nothing, they will rebel anyway. This "special administration" area is only a stepping stone, as soon as they get it, they will start again.

[simple1]

Give them nothing, they will rebel anyway. This "special administration" area is only a stepping stone, as soon as they get it, they will start again.

One of the main issues facing the Thai security agencies is the COIN strategy to address the Juwae. From an analysis by Rand Corporation of governments using the "crush them" approach it failed in 23 cases out of 33.

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR291z1/RAND_RR291z1.sum.pdf

[noitom]

Give them nothing, they will rebel anyway. This "special administration" area is only a stepping stone, as soon as they get it, they will start again.

Sad, but true.

[theblether]

Give them nothing, they will rebel anyway. This "special administration" area is only a stepping stone, as soon as they get it, they will start again.

One of the main issues facing the Thai security agencies is the COIN strategy to address the Juwae. From an analysis by Rand Corporation of governments using the "crush them" approach it failed in 23 cases out of 33.

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR291z1/RAND_RR291z1.sum.pdf

Neither did I say "crush them".

The solution to this problem is far more straightforward than people would believe. The government should take the bull by the horns and construct the canal, which will give Southern Thailand, in fact all Thailand an economic boom which will lift the entire country.

A special economic area should be imposed on both sides of the canal to a depth of 10 miles with tax breaks for manufacturers and the like. Here's what will happen. There will be a surge of Buddhist immigration into the South, in fact the government should set out to transport down 100,000 Isaan boys and families to fill these factory jobs. The local Muslim community will get the shock of it's life. Things have been going one way for too long, and they won't know how to react to a vast influx of money and Buddhists.

The money for the canal will invariably come from the Chinese, give them security rights over it for a 99 year duration. Malaysia will pony it when the realize that China is standing firmly behind Thailand.

What the Muslims dream of will be their undoing. Give them nothing, build the canal.

[sunshine51]

I agree 100% Blethe...give them nothing.

[weegee]

Give them nothing, they will rebel anyway. This "special administration" area is only a stepping stone, as soon as they get it, they will start again.

One of the main issues facing the Thai security agencies is the COIN strategy to address the Juwae. From an analysis by Rand Corporation of governments using the "crush them" approach it failed in 23 cases out of 33.

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR291z1/RAND_RR291z1.sum.pdf

Neither did I say "crush them".

The solution to this problem is far more straightforward than people would believe. The government should take the bull by the horns and construct the canal, which will give Southern Thailand, in fact all Thailand an economic boom which will lift the entire country.

A special economic area should be imposed on both sides of the canal to a depth of 10 miles with tax breaks for manufacturers and the like. Here's what will happen. There will be a surge of Buddhist immigration into the South, in fact the government should set out to transport down 100,000 Isaan boys and families to fill these factory jobs. The local Muslim community will get the shock of it's life. Things have been going one way for too long, and they won't know how to react to a vast influx of money and Buddhists.

The money for the canal will invariably come from the Chinese, give them security rights over it for a 99 year duration. Malaysia will pony it when the realize that China is standing firmly behind Thailand.

What the Muslims dream of will be their undoing. Give them nothing, build the canal.

I agree with you 100%....IF the canal cut through, where it was proposed a long time ago to be done, all these problems in the south might go away....

Imagine the economic boost to Thailand alone, shipping that has to divert around through the Straits of Singapore, bound for Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea would use it rather than run the gauntlet with the pirates and overcrowded shipping lanes....As for the Isaan boys, they would construct the Channel, in record time....

[sunshine51]

What BRN wants...in other words what Malaysia wants, to include the various political

factions, smugglers, common criminals etc...is for the Thai government to roll over

on the effected Southern Provinces and let em have autonomy or free rule on their

own. If the TG rolls over the so-called rebels will just carry on with their rebellion

in other provinces further northwards. If the battle ground must be in the South

then so be it. The tide must be stopped or at least curtailed and the best way

to start is by giving zero to BRN and all the other nasty players. If the confrontation

escallates...so be it. Let the RTA carry the fight into the villages moreso than they

are now, require the dual nationals (Thai's with Malaysian Citizenship & vice versa)

to select only one nationality and if so...close the borders and heavily patrol the

geographic border with plenty of..."Boots on the ground". It's a start...

[sunshine51]

Give them nothing, they will rebel anyway. This "special administration" area is only a stepping stone, as soon as they get it, they will start again.

One of the main issues facing the Thai security agencies is the COIN strategy to address the Juwae. From an analysis by Rand Corporation of governments using the "crush them" approach it failed in 23 cases out of 33.

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR291z1/RAND_RR291z1.sum.pdf

Neither did I say "crush them".

The solution to this problem is far more straightforward than people would believe. The government should take the bull by the horns and construct the canal, which will give Southern Thailand, in fact all Thailand an economic boom which will lift the entire country.

A special economic area should be imposed on both sides of the canal to a depth of 10 miles with tax breaks for manufacturers and the like. Here's what will happen. There will be a surge of Buddhist immigration into the South, in fact the government should set out to transport down 100,000 Isaan boys and families to fill these factory jobs. The local Muslim community will get the shock of it's life. Things have been going one way for too long, and they won't know how to react to a vast influx of money and Buddhists.

The money for the canal will invariably come from the Chinese, give them security rights over it for a 99 year duration. Malaysia will pony it when the realize that China is standing firmly behind Thailand.

What the Muslims dream of will be their undoing. Give them nothing, build the canal.

I agree with you 100%....IF the canal cut through, where it was proposed a long time ago to be done, all these problems in the south might go away....

Imagine the economic boost to Thailand alone, shipping that has to divert around through the Straits of Singapore, bound for Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea would use it rather than run the gauntlet with the pirates and overcrowded shipping lanes....As for the Isaan boys, they would construct the Channel, in record time....

This is a good idea...as for the piracy in the Straits of Melacca...it's kinda slow

these days. Much less than say 10 years ago....but still there.

[simple1]

Give them nothing, they will rebel anyway. This "special administration" area is only a stepping stone, as soon as they get it, they will start again.

One of the main issues facing the Thai security agencies is the COIN strategy to address the Juwae. From an analysis by Rand Corporation of governments using the "crush them" approach it failed in 23 cases out of 33.

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR291z1/RAND_RR291z1.sum.pdf

Neither did I say "crush them".

The solution to this problem is far more straightforward than people would believe. The government should take the bull by the horns and construct the canal, which will give Southern Thailand, in fact all Thailand an economic boom which will lift the entire country.

A special economic area should be imposed on both sides of the canal to a depth of 10 miles with tax breaks for manufacturers and the like. Here's what will happen. There will be a surge of Buddhist immigration into the South, in fact the government should set out to transport down 100,000 Isaan boys and families to fill these factory jobs. The local Muslim community will get the shock of it's life. Things have been going one way for too long, and they won't know how to react to a vast influx of money and Buddhists.

The money for the canal will invariably come from the Chinese, give them security rights over it for a 99 year duration. Malaysia will pony it when the realize that China is standing firmly behind Thailand.

What the Muslims dream of will be their undoing. Give them nothing, build the canal.

In the blue sky scenario you paint why do you exclude the local Thai Muslims from enjoying increased employment and participating in a new economic initiative; rather than importing people from Issan and exacerbating tensions? After all it is estimated by the Thai government their are only somewhere around 20k locals either engaged or supporting the various groups in their violent activities. From my reading the vast majority of Thai Muslim locals are sick & tried of the intrusion of violence in their daily lives & are seeking a peaceful existance.

Regarding the violence aTV member who has extensive experience in conflict zones, once said "implement a theatre-strategic way of thinking...meaning bringing the whole down into local perspective to solve problems as they arise" This policy has been recommended by very senior US/NATO military commanders who own COIN strategy in places such as Afghanistan.

[MegaRanter]

How I wish the Muslim north of Nigeria will demand their break away from the central and southern Nigeria.

Let them go. There is nothing strategic about southern Thailand.

[metisdead]

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