Q&A on Thai political crisis - Facts

[webfact]

Q&A on Thai political crisis - Facts

BANGKOK, November 26, 2013 (AFP) - Here are some key facts about Thailand's political crisis, which escalated this week with protesters occupying key ministries in a bid to topple Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government.

Q: What are the protests about?
Thailand has been rocked by years of often-violent demonstrations by rival protest movements.

The current anti-government demonstrations, led by senior opposition figures, are seeking an end to the "Thaksin system" -- the legacy of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted in a coup in 2006 and lives in self-imposed exile.

The rallies were triggered by a controversial amnesty bill introduced by the ruling party which could have allowed Thaksin to return to Thailand without going to jail for a graft conviction that he contends was politically motivated.

The legislation was rejected by the upper house but the emboldened opposition Democrats and their street protest allies have increased their demands and are now calling for the government to be toppled.

The protesters accuse the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra -- Thaksin's sister -- of corruption, an accusation also levelled against the opposition when it was in power.

Q: Who are the competing protest groups in Thailand?
The rival movements are the "Red Shirts", loyal to Thaksin, and their arch rivals the royalist "Yellow Shirts" who were once a major political force but are no longer active.

Yellow rallies have helped to eject Thaksin or his allies from power three times, while support from the Reds swept Yingluck to power in 2011 in the wake of a deadly military crackdown on their pro-Thaksin street protests.

The opposition protesters currently on the streets are a mixture of former Yellow Shirts, Democrat supporters, royalists, students, urban middle class and other Thaksin opponents.

Tens of thousands of Red Shirts have staged a rival protest in support of the government, accusing the opposition demonstrators of seeking to overthrow a democratically elected adminstration.

Q: What are the possible scenarios?
The government appears reluctant to use force to break up the protests. A military crackdown on the Red Shirt rallies by the previous government in 2010 left more than 90 civilians dead and nearly 1,900 wounded.

Yingluck's best hope is for the protests to end peacefully, possibly ahead of the revered king's birthday on December 5.

She could call a snap election, which many analysts believe her party would still win, albeit probably with a reduced majority in parliament.

But she cannot dissolve parliament until after the end of a no-confidence debate on Thursday that she is expected to easily survive.

The Red Shirts could also decide to step up their pro-government protests, raising the risk of clashes between rival political factions.

Q: Could the army or the courts intervene?
The possibility of military intervention constantly looms over Thailand, which has seen 18 actual or attempted coups since 1932, most recently in 2006 when royalist generals toppled Thaksin.

But the army has so far shown no sign that it is preparing to get involved.

The judiciary also has a record of intervening in politics, dissolving parties and banning their executives, and some observers believe corruption allegations against the ruling party could form the basis for another "judicial coup".

Revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej intervened during several political crises in the 1970s and 1990s but the 85-year-old monarch has been in ill-health for several years and rarely speaks in public.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2013-11-26

[seminomadic]

Neutral and succint. Nicely done.

[Mister Fixit]

A very good basic analysis, especially for foreigners.

[JRSoul]

"The rallies were triggered by a controversial amnesty bill..........." but many people are dissatisfied by this government's performance and policies, and its lack of honesty and accountability.

[IsaanUSA]

Are the demographics clearly defined, as the FAQ says? Reds are for the government, and yellows against?

Does the rice scheme and their payments (or lack of payments) play a role in this at all?

[JRSoul]

Are the demographics clearly defined, as the FAQ says? Reds are for the government, and yellows against?

Does the rice scheme and their payments (or lack of payments) play a role in this at all?

In my travel, I find the number of die-hard government supporters in supposedly red areas is much lower than the reds would have us believe. Most are indifferent, and some of the younger are quite anti-.

As another shade of red once said " One man with a gun can control 100 without one." Vladimir Lenin. Good old Vlad knew a bit about rough politics.

Edited November 26, 2013 by JRSoul

[MAJIC]

Are the demographics clearly defined, as the FAQ says? Reds are for the government, and yellows against?

Does the rice scheme and their payments (or lack of payments) play a role in this at all?

Doesn't money always play a part ?

[IsaanUSA]

Are the demographics clearly defined, as the FAQ says? Reds are for the government, and yellows against?

Does the rice scheme and their payments (or lack of payments) play a role in this at all?

Doesn't money always play a part ?

I don't know, that is why I am asking. The OP only mentions the amnesty bill and corruption.

[Bpuumike]

Are the demographics clearly defined, as the FAQ says? Reds are for the government, and yellows against?

Does the rice scheme and their payments (or lack of payments) play a role in this at all?

Doesn't money always play a part ?

What? In Thailand?? Never.

[tingtongteesood]

Notice how they neglected to mention that Thaksin is a convicted criminal turned fugitive to escape his prison sentence. Let's have ALL the facts please....

[smileydude]

Are the demographics clearly defined, as the FAQ says? Reds are for the government, and yellows against?

Does the rice scheme and their payments (or lack of payments) play a role in this at all?

In my travel, I find the number of die-hard government supporters in supposedly red areas is much lower than the reds would have us believe. Most are indifferent, and some of the younger are quite anti-.

As another shade of red once said " One man with a gun can control 100 without one." Vladimir Lenin. Good old Vlad knew a bit about rough politics.

I would like to add that the demographics for the anti-government protestors is not as pure yellow as in the past. It is a mix of yellow shirts and those who were previously non-colored but cannot stand the blatant corruption (e.g. rice scheme) and disregard of laws (eg. amnesty bill proposal ) which could be called the"Anti-Thaksinism" group. The Anti-Thaksinism form the majority of protestors and are mostly from Bangkok and non-red dominated regions.

As for the pro-government, I agree with the previous poster that the true-redshirts have always been portrayed as a large group of people fed up with injustice stemming from the entitled and nobility ruling the country and mostly from the Northeast of Thailand or anywhere that is not Bangkok or the Southern regions when in truth they are much smaller.

Many who are pro-government are not true red in their ideology but pro-Thaksin in that they like and enjoy the benefits of his populist policies (eg. rice scheme, Universal healthcare, one tambon-one million baht fund etc.)

The die-hard redshirts ideologists are much smaller then the anti-thaksinists in numbers but they can mobilize voters better (via vote buying, populist policies etc) and thus PTP forms the majority of parliament.

In the past the government was formed from coalitions of political parties (friendlies more then ideology) while the rest became the opposition. Nowadays Thaksin via PTP has consolidated and absorbed most of the smaller political parties into his fold (PTP) by buying their loyalty. It has virtually become bipartisan like in the US with PTP on one side and the Democrats on the other.

Politically it has been conveniently boxed as PTP is for the less fortunate and rural (eg. famers) and Democrats for the nobility, entitled and rich when in truth it is not. It is more like whose policies will benefit whom. Nothing new in politics here but unfortunately it has been manipulated as a fight between the haves and have nots and is stoking the flames for civil disunity.

Problem is the Democrats political platform has never appealed to the majority of voters which are rural residents so they will never win the majority. In the past some smaller political parties were able appeal to rural residents but they have been bought out by Thaksin and Co. or pushed into obscurity.

Thailand needs more choices of political parties with good intentions to push the country forward in the global stage like what we've seen in Japan and Korea. Right now all we have is one party (PTP) that is polarizing the country between the haves and have nots and the other (Democrats) that just doesn't appeal to enough.

[drdoom6996]

Notice how they neglected to mention that Thaksin is a convicted criminal turned fugitive to escape his prison sentence. Let's have ALL the facts please....

The news always says that he is self imposed exile. They never say he is convicted of anything and is running from a jail term. The truth and the facts are rarely the same. As the spin keeps turning one or the other around.

[Spare]

The info is not accurate.

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was not ousted in a coup in 2006.

He was not a PM in Sept 2006.

And the coup is not an orninary coup, but a GOOD COUP.

Thaksin does not lives in self-imposed exile.

If was a forced exile by the Thai court.

I.e. He is not in Dubai at his own free will, but the will of the court to arrest him if he returns.

[robsamui]

Overall a direct and comprehensive summary.

One big point was underplayed - and please correct me here - but was not Taksin found guilty on numerous charges of corruption, not just the one?

I seem to recall there was quite a stack of charges against him.

R

[kirk0233]

The mistake of PT was to make it all about Thaksin. They were given a chance to shake up the system and embrace and strengthen the infantile democratic institutions of Thailand, but their insistence on Thaksin first has tarnished their image as a party of the people. They will have to make some concession, hopefully real and not symbolic, to the people that improves lives and expands democracy to regain their credentials.

[IsaanUSA]

Thanks smileydude