THAI TALK
'Bizarre' truce without real reform agenda offers no political solution
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation



BANGKOK: -- CNN's news anchor described Tuesday's turn of events in the Bangkok protest as "bizarre", after the channel's American reporter in the Thai capital had explained how the confrontation had unexpectedly transformed into a scene of hugs and handshakes.

It was more like a "family picnic", another foreign correspondent said. Thai reporters admitted they too were puzzled over the sudden U-turn. Political pundits were quick to point out that it was too good to be true - it was nothing more than a ruse to lure the other side into a trap.

First there was supposed to be a "deal" between Premier Yingluck Shinawatra and protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, brokered by the chiefs of the armed forces. But then it turned out that there was no deal after all, with Suthep taking to the stage to declare that the "war" was far from over.

Yingluck herself went public to state that "all doors are open" for more talks, but made it clear that Suthep's demand for a "people's assembly" could not be met under current constitutional provisions. She sounded conciliatory, though, asking for ideas and solutions "that could bring the country back to normalcy".

The premier even suggested that she would not be an "obstacle" to any solution that could save the country from turmoil. That ambiguous statement prompted some foreign news agencies to report that the Thai PM was offering to resign - an interpretation that was promptly shot down.

To all intents and purposes, that wasn't part of the "deal", because there was no "deal" in the first place. A few hours after Yingluck fielded questions from reporters, Pheu Thai's nominal leader Jarupong Ruangsuwan, also Interior minister, went on TV to say the prime minister wasn't going to resign. Nor would she dissolve the House to call a new election. In other words, despite the "tactical move" to let protesters into Metropolitan Police Headquarters and Government House, both sides were still poles apart from a settlement.

It will be an uneasy truce, with Yingluck hoping that Suthep can be detained now that the court has endorsed a police request for his arrest, and Suthep declaring a shaky "victory" for the time being. The political battle will resume soon after celebrations for His Majesty's birthday today.

Both sides are claiming the upper hand. Yingluck, after finally realising that public anger at her government and the ruling party is not merely ignorant people "imagining things", says she will invite academics to offer ideas on how the political stalemate can be broken. She insists she is willing to listen to "all parties concerned".

Suthep charges that the PM is simply buying time, waiting for the 109 former pro-government MPs to return to the political arena after a five-year ban. He is trying desperately to convince the rest of the country that his proposed "people's assembly" is for real and that the list of people to be named to the body would be made public soon. The "assembly", which would be tasked with the responsibility of appointing a new interim prime minister, won't include politicians. The ambiguity of his concept and the doubt cast over the legitimacy of such a move have clearly weakened his claim to be "returning the power to the people".

The military leaders who brokered the truce remain ambivalent over their exact role in the political process. Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has warned against dragging the military into this political quagmire. Both Yingluck and Suthep have tried to create the impression that the army is on their side.

Suthep claims that the army chief told him the military is "on the side of the country" - vague enough for both sides to create an impression that they enjoy the loyalty of the top brass.

Yingluck's aides say the PM was encouraged by the army chief's pledge that a coup is not an option, whatever happens.

What, then, is the most likely scenario when the truce expires in the next 24 hours?

Yingluck (read Thaksin) might think that once Suthep is out of the picture one way or the other, things will get back to normal. That isn't going to be the case. With or without Suthep, the government's credibility has taken a severe beating. Dissolving the House and calling a fresh election might reduce the political tension to a certain extent, but unless the "rules of the game" - the Constitution and other related laws - are amended in such a way that elections are free and fair, that corruption in high places is seriously tackled and that so-called "elements of the Thaksin regime" are neutralised, Pheu Thai's majority in the House will not guarantee peace and stability.

Serious suggestions have been put forward for a non-political "interim administration" to oversee the amending of laws and regulations so as to guarantee proper checks and balances against the so-called "tyranny of the majority" and to put an end to "money politics" before a new election is called.

Some academics have proposed that Yingluck should offer to excuse herself from serving as the interim premier during the transition so as to convince the public that she is serious about pursuing the "national reform" she has been publicly advocating.

The chances of these suggestions being accepted by Thaksin and Yingluck are slim. But unless they come up with a concrete concession in the form of working with a "transition body", their hope of returning to "business as usual" will remain a pipe dream.

Only one week ago, a House dissolution might have sufficed to defuse the political time bomb. Now, the situation has gone far beyond that. Even if Yingluck quits or calls a snap election, the battle cry for real reform will be here to stay.


-- The Nation 2013-12-05

The only reason why this came to an end when it did is because of the Kings Birthday...There was no way whatsoever that this chaotic display of a protest was going to be allowed to continue during one of the most important days of the year here....all of this other B.S. that they are giving the public...i.e Yingluck opening her arms to talks , ...Suthep claiming victory... etc etc is a bunch of nonsense and another way to save face

Good summary of the whole situation by Khun Suthichai Yoon. And of the assessment of Thaksin having any thought of bussiness as usual especially in terms of the Amnesty Bill being a Dubai pipe dream.

Ammending laws and regulations and drafting a new Constitution will not ensure that elections are free and fair. Wouldn't ensure that corruption in high places is seriously tackled either. The problem isn't the lack of laws, regulations or a "properly" formed consitution. The problem is that laws and regulations and consitutions are habitually circumvented and perverted and that for pretty much everyone following the person comes well before following the law. It's the loser that is forced to follow follow the law/regulations, and forced to do so by the person who seldom does and grows rich in not doing so. Serious enforcement of extant laws and regulations is not one of the idols of the tribe and there are no good reasons for thinking that a different set of laws and regululations would be enforced any better. The problem is not "legal/constitutional" but cultural.

I just read a severely one sided account of what is taking place. If Suthep gets the cuffs..who will take up the challenge. Another Democrat MP. Dems truly showing their colours what with Abhisit and Korn marching afront of the protestors and making all the right noises (that was until it went tits up). The Dems reputation is in tatters over this Suthep debacle and if another high profile Dem MP fronts this charade it will be the death knell of the party.

So I cannot see another high profile leader, known to the nation, who can lead this. Lets face it boys, go home this ones in the crapper

The Nations still flogging a dead horse I see

I just read a severely one sided account of what is taking place. If Suthep gets the cuffs..who will take up the challenge. Another Democrat MP. Dems truly showing their colours what with Abhisit and Korn marching afront of the protestors and making all the right noises (that was until it went tits up). The Dems reputation is in tatters over this Suthep debacle and if another high profile Dem MP fronts this charade it will be the death knell of the party.

So I cannot see another high profile leader, known to the nation, who can lead this. Lets face it boys, go home this ones in the crapper

One of two things that just pop off the top of my head here.

1. Suthep won't get the 'cuffs' and it is business as usual.

2. A Dem with a lot less fire but equal determination could even increase the support for protests and the Dems.

In which case both scenarios totally pulls the rug out from under your entire post. Try to think a bit deeper about things before making comments, you may save face a little later down the road.

tomorrow is business as usual

so how hippocritte can one get ?

I just read a severely one sided account of what is taking place. If Suthep gets the cuffs..who will take up the challenge. Another Democrat MP. Dems truly showing their colours what with Abhisit and Korn marching afront of the protestors and making all the right noises (that was until it went tits up). The Dems reputation is in tatters over this Suthep debacle and if another high profile Dem MP fronts this charade it will be the death knell of the party.

So I cannot see another high profile leader, known to the nation, who can lead this. Lets face it boys, go home this ones in the crapper

The dems supported the protests while they were peaceful protests against a corrupt, self serving, inept govt. That is a perfectly legitimate position for a political party to take, especially when facing a governing party that abuses democratic processes, uses street thugs to intimidate their political rivals and the judiciary. They pulled back when Suthep lost the plot and the protests turned violent. Again a legitimate position to take if you are a party committed to democratic processes. Suthep has his own agenda and only he really knows what it is, once he's gone I can't see how this now farcical situation can continue.

Let's get some of the views of the big Thai business community. Some real interviews with big Thai hot air.

I just read a severely one sided account of what is taking place. If Suthep gets the cuffs..who will take up the challenge. Another Democrat MP. Dems truly showing their colours what with Abhisit and Korn marching afront of the protestors and making all the right noises (that was until it went tits up). The Dems reputation is in tatters over this Suthep debacle and if another high profile Dem MP fronts this charade it will be the death knell of the party.

So I cannot see another high profile leader, known to the nation, who can lead this. Lets face it boys, go home this ones in the crapper

"Another Democrat MP" & "another high profile Dem MP"

Just to point out that Suthep did quit both his former-party, and as an MP, before things went tits-up. So perhaps slightly inaccurate to use the word "another" ?

Back in Parliament former-PM Abhisit is keeping what one might call the 'official-Democrat' efforts legal & constitutional, playing by the rules, despite the accusations & DSI-led attempt to prosecute for "murder", which may well have played-a-part in driving Suthep over-the-edge ? Abhisit therefore presents the reasonable-face of the Opposition IMO.

This surely enhances his party's reputation, rather than leaving it "in tatters", which I don't think it is.

One wonders whether, if PM-Yingluck follows her brother's alleged instructions & tries to hang onto power at all costs, and fails to dissolve the house for new elections, whether Abhisit might follow Suthep's example and lead all his party to resign en-masse, and whether that might be enough to force an election ?

It would be a pity if that were to be necessary.

Why are Thaksin & Yingluck so desperate to hang-on, with only 19-months remaining until the next election, anyway ? Do they perhaps think that PTP won't do so well at the polls next time, or that the violence resulting from her attempt to push his Amnesty-Bill will have damaged her/their/PTP's reputations ?

The only way to really find out is to take responsibility, for the mess she's led the country into, and call that election voluntarily, rather than be forced into it by further violence. If much-reviled PM-Abhisit could call elections early, then so surely can PM-Yingluck, especially having already said she's willing to if it brings peace back.

I guess we'll see shortly.

Well, where is Mr Abhisit? Last seen leading a protest march to the US embassy and not a word since.

I just read a severely one sided account of what is taking place. If Suthep gets the cuffs..who will take up the challenge. Another Democrat MP. Dems truly showing their colours what with Abhisit and Korn marching afront of the protestors and making all the right noises (that was until it went tits up). The Dems reputation is in tatters over this Suthep debacle and if another high profile Dem MP fronts this charade it will be the death knell of the party.
So I cannot see another high profile leader, known to the nation, who can lead this. Lets face it boys, go home this ones in the crapper

The dems supported the protests while they were peaceful protests against a corrupt, self serving, inept govt. That is a perfectly legitimate position for a political party to take, especially when facing a governing party that abuses democratic processes, uses street thugs to intimidate their political rivals and the judiciary. They pulled back when Suthep lost the plot and the protests turned violent. Again a legitimate position to take if you are a party committed to democratic processes. Suthep has his own agenda and only he really knows what it is, once he's gone I can't see how this now farcical situation can continue.

Well, where is Mr Abhisit? Last seen leading a protest march to the US embassy and not a word since.

I just read a severely one sided account of what is taking place. If Suthep gets the cuffs..who will take up the challenge. Another Democrat MP. Dems truly showing their colours what with Abhisit and Korn marching afront of the protestors and making all the right noises (that was until it went tits up). The Dems reputation is in tatters over this Suthep debacle and if another high profile Dem MP fronts this charade it will be the death knell of the party.

So I cannot see another high profile leader, known to the nation, who can lead this. Lets face it boys, go home this ones in the crapper

The dems supported the protests while they were peaceful protests against a corrupt, self serving, inept govt. That is a perfectly legitimate position for a political party to take, especially when facing a governing party that abuses democratic processes, uses street thugs to intimidate their political rivals and the judiciary. They pulled back when Suthep lost the plot and the protests turned violent. Again a legitimate position to take if you are a party committed to democratic processes. Suthep has his own agenda and only he really knows what it is, once he's gone I can't see how this now farcical situation can continue.

Possibly in parliament? Doing his job? He has the right to lead protests, to highlight issues, he is, after all, the leader of the opposition. Why shouldn't he march to the USA embassy if it highlights abuses of power in a peaceful, legitimate, democratic manner?