Another problem rears its head for Thai government: Analysis

[webfact]

NATION ANALYSIS
Another problem rears its head for government
Samudcha Hoonsara
The Nation

Rice farmers may protest over payments

BANGKOK: -- Farmers who had joined the rice-pledging scheme issued an ultimatum that they would stage a massive protest if the authorities failed to pay them soon after January 15 as promised.

Indeed, farmers in several provinces, notably in the North and Northeast - regions considered to be strongholds of the ruling Pheu Thai Party - have already held protests.

The government is obliged to inject more than Bt130 billion into the scheme and has instructed the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives to reserve Bt55 billion in cash to pay them. However, it remains unclear whether the bank has enough money to pay the farmers.

Meanwhile, the farmers say that if they don't get paid in time, they will not hesitate to put more pressure on the government.

The rice-pledging scheme was one of the key policies that the Pheu Thai-led government implemented to win support from farmers.

Meanwhile, farmers who grow other kinds of crops such as maize and cassava are also queuing up to demand government subsidies for their produce.

Many experts, including prominent economist and former government adviser Virabongsa Ramangkura, had warned earlier that the rice-pledging scheme would create problems for the government both economically and politically.

As of now, it is still unclear how the government will handle the pressure from farmers, who are its strongest supporters. Meanwhile, it is still struggling with the problems being created by the People's Democratic Reform Commission (PDRC) as it tries to shut down the capital.

Key members of the government continue insisting that the February 2 election will go ahead as scheduled, even though many agencies including the Election Commission continue advising the government against it.

They say that if the election does go ahead as scheduled, it could lead to many more problems including clashes. So far, it looks as though the government has no clear plans on what to do should such a problem occur.

PDRC leader Suthep Thaugsuban, meanwhile, has clearly said that his group is not ready to make any compromises with the government.

However, perhaps Suthep's approach is as risky for himself as it is for the government. On the one hand, he offers the government no negotiable choices, while on the other hand he has no clear road map on achieving such a high ambition. What happens if the protesters demand that he reach a compromise?

Besides, both sides are betting on the patience of Bangkok residents.

How long will they tolerate being inconvenienced? Though some might enjoy the festival-like atmosphere at the protest sites, will the local residents find the rallies acceptable if they continue for months and slowly destroy the economy?

At this point, it is still difficult to predict what will happen if the battle continues.

Will Thailand eventually become a failed state?


-- The Nation 2014-01-18

[GeorgeO]

The Director of the BAAC has already announced that the bank didn't receive the necessary funds from the former government, only to find that he would subsequently be called a 'liar' by the government...! What reason would he have to make up such a story?

Furthermore, with YL now under scrutiny by the NACC, and the caretaker government having been told that it cannot use BAAC liquidity funds to pay the farmers (something which it has already done), the whole house of cards is about to come down.

My bet is that the current administration will 'disappear into the night' once the farmers arrive, as it may well dawn on them that they no longer have the up-country support that they once enjoyed.

Edited January 18, 2014 by GeorgeO

[Tokay]

Will Thailand eventually become a failed state?

It's on its way.

[kingalfred]

Meltdown for tourism in Thailand and the retail businesses in a downward spiral .The only group doing well is the vendors at mob sites. Street vendors who are fixed at regular sites are suffering with the lack if customers

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[EricBerg]

Now the people in the north are being told it's all the fault of the protesters and of the EC. They prevent the government from paying the rice farmers. Some actually believe that.

It is the same arrogance towards the people in the north as the BKK elite showed for ages. Thinking the people can be fooled with cheap talk. Now the largest part of the electorate is becoming aware of what happened. They understand the shinaclan is telling them crap. Beware when the ricefarmers go to confront the government. There'll be a run on flights to Dubai and all caretakers will be gone.

But the missunderstood fugitive will not be home for them. They expired same as the gigantic ricestocks.

Edited January 18, 2014 by EricBerg

[h90]

Now the people in the north are being told it's all the fault of the protesters and of the EC. They prevent the government from paying the rice farmers. Some actually believe that.

It is the same arrogance towards the people in the north as the BKK elite showed for ages. Thinking the people can be fooled with cheap talk. Now the largest part of the electorate is becoming aware of what happened. They understand the shinaclan is telling them crap. Beware when the ricefarmers go to confront the government. There'll be a run on flights to Dubai and all caretakers will be gone.

But the missunderstood fugitive will not be home for them. They expired same as the gigantic ricestocks.

But how many of them will vote for the PTP again, because:

a ) The Democrats are discredited since a long time there and it is hard to put all the old believes and feelings away.

b ) the local headman tells to vote PTP

c ) they'll handout 500 (or maybe this time 1000) Baht which is often seen as show of kindness

[bigbamboo]

Will Thailand eventually become a failed state?

It's on its way.

Not a failed state, just a bit flakey.

[EricBerg]

Now the people in the north are being told it's all the fault of the protesters and of the EC. They prevent the government from paying the rice farmers. Some actually believe that.

It is the same arrogance towards the people in the north as the BKK elite showed for ages. Thinking the people can be fooled with cheap talk. Now the largest part of the electorate is becoming aware of what happened. They understand the shinaclan is telling them crap. Beware when the ricefarmers go to confront the government. There'll be a run on flights to Dubai and all caretakers will be gone.

But the missunderstood fugitive will not be home for them. They expired same as the gigantic ricestocks.

But how many of them will vote for the PTP again, because:

a ) The Democrats are discredited since a long time there and it is hard to put all the old believes and feelings away.

b ) the local headman tells to vote PTP

c ) they'll handout 500 (or maybe this time 1000) Baht which is often seen as show of kindness

c ) The people in the south were offered money too to vote for the big bad guy in the past. They took the money and voted differently anyway.

b ) These recent years trust in authority and obedience have been strongly damaged. The influence of the headmen will fade some.

a ) Many ricefarmers understand they will lose everything now. Then they'll be stuck with less than before the shinaclan came to power. That's the best discredit for the shinaclan.

Edited January 18, 2014 by EricBerg

[virtualtraveller]

Now the people in the north are being told it's all the fault of the protesters and of the EC. They prevent the government from paying the rice farmers. Some actually believe that.

It is the same arrogance towards the people in the north as the BKK elite showed for ages. Thinking the people can be fooled with cheap talk. Now the largest part of the electorate is becoming aware of what happened. They understand the shinaclan is telling them crap. Beware when the ricefarmers go to confront the government. There'll be a run on flights to Dubai and all caretakers will be gone.

But the missunderstood fugitive will not be home for them. They expired same as the gigantic ricestocks.

But how many of them will vote for the PTP again, because:

a ) The Democrats are discredited since a long time there and it is hard to put all the old believes and feelings away.

b ) the local headman tells to vote PTP

c ) they'll handout 500 (or maybe this time 1000) Baht which is often seen as show of kindness

Precisely.

Suthep should suddenly announce he is going home, apologise, gain some credibility for being negotiable. Let the boycott election go ahead and see how many rice farmers boycott. Then rest his case. Come back after the election with fresh demands, now that we've let Yingluck prove she's no longer as loved as she thinks. If they do this a few days before the election very little Puea Thai money would have been dished out.

[IMA_FARANG]

The whole problem with the Rice scheme (or Scam if you want) is that the government is buying and storing Rice at higher than the current market price.

The pledge price they are promising is higher than fair market value.

Simple basic Marketing 101 says that if you are selling something at a higher price than your competition is selling the exact same item, you're going to lose money.

Every Thai street trader knows that, but apparently the highly paid advisors that the government has don't know that.

All the problems with the rice scheme starts from that fact .... the whole scheme was and still is a money loser from it's very beginning.

To make the Rice scheme viable the government must LOWER the pledge price they offer, so that they can then SELL their stored Rice at a fair market price,

Otherwise Thai Rice will not be competitive with the Rice that neighboring producers are offering.

If the Thai government can't sell it's stored Rice, the Rice scheme will never be successful.

The government needs to lower it's pledge piece .... even if that costs them votes.

[mijan24]

The Director of the BAAC has already announced that the bank didn't receive the necessary funds from the former government, only to find that he would subsequently be called a 'liar' by the government...! What reason would he have to make up such a story?

Furthermore, with YL now under scrutiny by the NACC, and the caretaker government having been told that it cannot use BAAC liquidity funds to pay the farmers (something which it has already done), the whole house of cards is about to come down.

My bet is that the current administration will 'disappear into the night' once the farmers arrive, as it may well dawn on them that they no longer have the up-country support that they once enjoyed.

Simple solution could be to use the confiscated "Thaksin" monies + assets to satisfy the debts (or has that pot of ฿ been returned or used elsewhere ?)

Why should the ฿ and assets of a convicted criminal be used towards solving the crisis - if you need to ask that question you are missing the whole point of the problem and probably think the situation has occurred naturally and is not "man made".

Thailand is suffering - do you really think Mr "T" or Mr "S" have any concern about the international damage - take off your rose coloured glasses and put those responsible behind bars for the good of the country.

[MILT]

Suthep and the Dems strategy is so obvious! It's not about being a dictator or wrangling for power nor is this even about Abhisit!

As some would suggest on this forum.

This is about exposing the faults of PTP (Pardon Thaskin party) It's about bringing the Shin a whats? down for good.

The Dems know deep down that nothing can change until these people are brought under control.

I think it is a great strategy. Risky? yes but I believe the momentum from the anti government will prevail and after the courts and independent

groups are finished this government will be finished. The protester's will go home. Suthep will go to jail (for awhile) Abhisit and the rest of Dems

will start getting their act together and start new fresh elections with oversight and a new charter. One that is fair for all and that will actually

benefit the Thai people.

[Spartakos]

Suthep and the Dems strategy is so obvious! It's not about being a dictator or wrangling for power nor is this even about Abhisit!

As some would suggest on this forum.

This is about exposing the faults of PTP (Pardon Thaskin party) It's about bringing the Shin a whats? down for good.

The Dems know deep down that nothing can change until these people are brought under control.

I think it is a great strategy. Risky? yes but I believe the momentum from the anti government will prevail and after the courts and independent

groups are finished this government will be finished. The protester's will go home. Suthep will go to jail (for awhile) Abhisit and the rest of Dems

will start getting their act together and start new fresh elections with oversight and a new charter. One that is fair for all and that will actually

benefit the Thai people.

You paint the dems in bright colours. I wish their intentions would be that sincere. Unfortunately they are just the lesser of 2 evils. I call this situation a cancer vs chemotherapy both are bad for the country but with the latest you at least have a chance.

[Bakseeda]

Suthep and the Dems strategy is so obvious! It's not about being a dictator or wrangling for power nor is this even about Abhisit!

As some would suggest on this forum.

This is about exposing the faults of PTP (Pardon Thaskin party) It's about bringing the Shin a whats? down for good.

The Dems know deep down that nothing can change until these people are brought under control.

I think it is a great strategy. Risky? yes but I believe the momentum from the anti government will prevail and after the courts and independent

groups are finished this government will be finished. The protester's will go home. Suthep will go to jail (for awhile) Abhisit and the rest of Dems

will start getting their act together and start new fresh elections with oversight and a new charter. One that is fair for all and that will actually

benefit the Thai people.

You paint the dems in bright colours. I wish their intentions would be that sincere. Unfortunately they are just the lesser of 2 evils. I call this situation a cancer vs chemotherapy both are bad for the country but with the latest you at least have a chance.

How long have you been here.....

[noitom]

By all accepted definitions of a failed state, Thailand meets the conditions. Thailand is still providing public services, but it won't be long. The army has already proven it can't contain and secure the nation - just use two examples here the 12 year war in the south with over 6,000 slaughtered with almost daily bombings and tens of thousands maimed and/or injured. The army also failed to secure the nation and permitted the closing of the airport for a week and disruption of international service for more than two weeks.

Certainly Thailand is incapable of making collective decisions. This is obvious by a quick scan of daily events and news commentary. Thailand has consistently demonstrated an inability to "effectively" interact with other legitimate states. When was the last time you actually saw Thailand high government and/or private sector leaders actually giving interviews that were available to the public without Thai reporters just sound biting for its "stupid" audience, as the establishment would say when it comes to one man one vote.

The beginning of the erosion of public services has already taken place with the medical workers threatening to protest and stop work. Vans and taxis are stating that they can't afford to operate and will be out of business soon, spending all their time in traffic and on gas.

Thailand is well on its way to meeting most conditions of a failed state. The newspaper shouldn't be asking this rhetorical question. The Thai press should be explaining to its readership what a failed state is and how close Thailand is. If the press doesn't do this, how many Thais would ever be able to explain what a failed state is?

Edited January 18, 2014 by noitom

[noitom]

Suthep and the Dems strategy is so obvious! It's not about being a dictator or wrangling for power nor is this even about Abhisit!

As some would suggest on this forum.

This is about exposing the faults of PTP (Pardon Thaskin party) It's about bringing the Shin a whats? down for good.

The Dems know deep down that nothing can change until these people are brought under control.

I think it is a great strategy. Risky? yes but I believe the momentum from the anti government will prevail and after the courts and independent

groups are finished this government will be finished. The protester's will go home. Suthep will go to jail (for awhile) Abhisit and the rest of Dems

will start getting their act together and start new fresh elections with oversight and a new charter. One that is fair for all and that will actually

benefit the Thai people.

The Shinawatras are not the root cause of this conflict. This conflict over control of Thailand and its "system" has been going on since 1932 look before Mr. Thaksin was standing up to relieve himself.

[Snig27]

Now the people in the north are being told it's all the fault of the protesters and of the EC. They prevent the government from paying the rice farmers. Some actually believe that.

It is the same arrogance towards the people in the north as the BKK elite showed for ages. Thinking the people can be fooled with cheap talk. Now the largest part of the electorate is becoming aware of what happened. They understand the shinaclan is telling them crap. Beware when the ricefarmers go to confront the government. There'll be a run on flights to Dubai and all caretakers will be gone.

But the missunderstood fugitive will not be home for them. They expired same as the gigantic ricestocks.

But how many of them will vote for the PTP again, because:

a ) The Democrats are discredited since a long time there and it is hard to put all the old believes and feelings away.

b ) the local headman tells to vote PTP

c ) they'll handout 500 (or maybe this time 1000) Baht which is often seen as show of kindness

c ) The people in the south were offered money too to vote for the big bad guy in the past. They took the money and voted differently anyway.

The independent research actually shows that was what happened in the north and north east. The Dems substantially outspent PT up there but people voted PT anyway.

[Snig27]

Suthep and the Dems strategy is so obvious! It's not about being a dictator or wrangling for power nor is this even about Abhisit!

As some would suggest on this forum.

This is about exposing the faults of PTP (Pardon Thaskin party) It's about bringing the Shin a whats? down for good.

The Dems know deep down that nothing can change until these people are brought under control.

I think it is a great strategy. Risky? yes but I believe the momentum from the anti government will prevail and after the courts and independent

groups are finished this government will be finished. The protester's will go home. Suthep will go to jail (for awhile) Abhisit and the rest of Dems

will start getting their act together and start new fresh elections with oversight and a new charter. One that is fair for all and that will actually

benefit the Thai people.

The Shinawatras are not the root cause of this conflict. This conflict over control of Thailand and its "system" has been going on since 1932 look before Mr. Thaksin was standing up to relieve himself.

Exactly right. Anyone with any understanding of 20th Century Thai history can trace the roots of this conflict back to the events of that year. There's a hell of a lot of hotheaded ignorance spouted on these forums that might be best addressed by a little reading (some of which you might have to do outside the country).

[Scamper]

In terms of the question posed at the end of this article, many would say yes. Certainly those on the streets would. And that's basically the problem. A populace that has lost faith in its government shows that so many ills have caught up to the present situation that they are now spilling over each other. It's hard to know where to start. From Thaksin to nepotism, to graft, to rice scams, to vote buying - it seems that the administration has been swimming in a maelstrom of its own design. How long can such practices hold ? If it were a Western country, likely not very long. If it were a Latin American country, probably much longer, perhaps indefinitely. In 2006, the boiling point was that the abuses of power had finally reached an intolerable critical mass. There were so many transgressions that led up to that, though it's quite possible the trigger may very well have been the sale of Shin corp and 1.88 billion dollars US. Massive monies were suddenly being transferred to the bank accounts of members of his family just days before the election. Suddenly, young members of the Thaksin family woke up suddenly realizing that they had become instant centimillionaires. For a country that had been traditionally highly tolerant of corruption, this was clearly a bridge too far. And so we have a similar situation this time, except that the trigger this time was obviously the amnesty bill, which if it had gone through, would have threatened to re-live the history of all those past abuses. And many have felt, that if ever Thaksin were to come back, be would some how manage to not ever allowing himself in a position of being forced out again. Those are likely the lessons he has learned, rather than any sense of contrition that one might have expected. In many ways, Thaksin and Richard Nixon are very much alike. Both likely have gleaned the same lessons, the same outlook. Years after Watergate, Nixon was asked if he learned anything from Watergate. " Yes. I should have destroyed the tapes. "

Edited January 18, 2014 by Scamper

[Spartakos]

Suthep and the Dems strategy is so obvious! It's not about being a dictator or wrangling for power nor is this even about Abhisit!

As some would suggest on this forum.

This is about exposing the faults of PTP (Pardon Thaskin party) It's about bringing the Shin a whats? down for good.

The Dems know deep down that nothing can change until these people are brought under control.

I think it is a great strategy. Risky? yes but I believe the momentum from the anti government will prevail and after the courts and independent

groups are finished this government will be finished. The protester's will go home. Suthep will go to jail (for awhile) Abhisit and the rest of Dems

will start getting their act together and start new fresh elections with oversight and a new charter. One that is fair for all and that will actually

benefit the Thai people.

The Shinawatras are not the root cause of this conflict. This conflict over control of Thailand and its "system" has been going on since 1932 look before Mr. Thaksin was standing up to relieve himself.

Yeah its not Thaksin who polirized the country and made himself a false messiah for rural and poor thais to suit his own agenda. There is inequality in thailand but there is also a chance for all people to make a decent living.

[drand11]

The EC is obvioudly being "persuaded" by the Dems to delay elections. The FINANCE DEPT IS OBVIOUSLY BEING "PERSUADED" TO NOT COOPRRAYE WITH THE GOVERMENT APPROVED AND FUNDED RICE SUBSIDY. Looks lije the Thai corruption/ back foor dealings that Surhep claims to wish to solve are being used by the almight Dictator Suthep.

[MILT]

Suthep and the Dems strategy is so obvious! It's not about being a dictator or wrangling for power nor is this even about Abhisit!

As some would suggest on this forum.

This is about exposing the faults of PTP (Pardon Thaskin party) It's about bringing the Shin a whats? down for good.

The Dems know deep down that nothing can change until these people are brought under control.

I think it is a great strategy. Risky? yes but I believe the momentum from the anti government will prevail and after the courts and independent

groups are finished this government will be finished. The protester's will go home. Suthep will go to jail (for awhile) Abhisit and the rest of Dems

will start getting their act together and start new fresh elections with oversight and a new charter. One that is fair for all and that will actually

benefit the Thai people.

The Shinawatras are not the root cause of this conflict. This conflict over control of Thailand and its "system" has been going on since 1932 look before Mr. Thaksin was standing up to relieve himself.

This is true! However the political and economic climate has change considerably and why the "Shinawatras" nor Thailand would ever survive the rules and regulations of the ASEAN community.

I understand this is not just about one family and at the same time they are the ones in the "hot seat". I have been living here before the "Shinawatras" enter the political fray in regards to Thaskin for PM.

The difference is like night and day! Thailand is in need of a purge and the mind set of the "Shinawatras" and their policies or the lack of......is what has brought the "pimple to a head"

Reforms and oversight are IMHO the key to stabilizing any political party here in the Kingdom no matter what banner they fly.

Usually change comes when 1. Self awareness or 2. Fear and 3. Disaster happens. In Thailand it looks as if all three are taking place at once.

[Crushdepth]

Will Thailand eventually become a failed state?

It's on its way.

It's already got a failed government.

[JRSoul]

By all accepted definitions of a failed state, Thailand meets the conditions. Thailand is still providing public services, but it won't be long. The army has already proven it can't contain and secure the nation - just use two examples here the 12 year war in the south with over 6,000 slaughtered with almost daily bombings and tens of thousands maimed and/or injured. The army also failed to secure the nation and permitted the closing of the airport for a week and disruption of international service for more than two weeks.

Certainly Thailand is incapable of making collective decisions. This is obvious by a quick scan of daily events and news commentary. Thailand has consistently demonstrated an inability to "effectively" interact with other legitimate states. When was the last time you actually saw Thailand high government and/or private sector leaders actually giving interviews that were available to the public without Thai reporters just sound biting for its "stupid" audience, as the establishment would say when it comes to one man one vote.

The beginning of the erosion of public services has already taken place with the medical workers threatening to protest and stop work. Vans and taxis are stating that they can't afford to operate and will be out of business soon, spending all their time in traffic and on gas.

Thailand is well on its way to meeting most conditions of a failed state. The newspaper shouldn't be asking this rhetorical question. The Thai press should be explaining to its readership what a failed state is and how close Thailand is. If the press doesn't do this, how many Thais would ever be able to explain what a failed state is?

Your criticism of the RTA is ridiculous. Religion based insurgencies have always been difficult to handle - how long did the UK army take to quell N Ireland? Was the success there military or political, and is there likely to be a political success with a Thaksin puppet government?

Were the RTA ever ordered to secure or clear the airports, is it even part of their brief?

[Crushdepth]

The EC is obvioudly being "persuaded" by the Dems to delay elections. The FINANCE DEPT IS OBVIOUSLY BEING "PERSUADED" TO NOT COOPRRAYE WITH THE GOVERMENT APPROVED AND FUNDED RICE SUBSIDY. Looks lije the Thai corruption/ back foor dealings that Surhep claims to wish to solve are being used by the almight Dictator Suthep.

The rice policy has been in place for a couple of years now. If the government didn't have the money to pay when they decided to call the election, it's their own stupid fault. As for "corruption", the former commerce minister and 14 cronies are up on charges for precisely that. The 'government to government' deals never happened, the government can't show any sales contracts.

And yet you expect the EC to approve a massive loan for electoral handouts by a caretaker government under a scheme riddled with government corruption in the lead up to an election?

[mimithewoof]

I'm no accountant or investor by any means, but having checked out rice prices over the last 60 months (indexmundi.com) I was surprised to find that the Thai government was buying rice in at well less than the average world price until very recently.

For example - in September 2011, the world price was $615 per metric ton, with another article stating that the Thai government payment to the farmers was $480 per metric ton.

The fall in the world price began in October 2011 until a blip in May 2012 where it rose again to $606.14 before falling again until December 2013's record low price of $447.55.In September 2012 the world price was $590.50,and it finally dropped below the government's purchase price last September.

Taking into account the government's need for profit and the fact that no government anywhere could be called altruistic, it seems there would have been enough space for profit between government buying and selling prices for a good few months before the bottom fell out of the world price.

Rice is a traded commodity influenced by world demand and the profits being made by dealers, Western corporate manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers as well as the supply worldwide.

Other SEA nations selling rice at less, thats commerce, how do you expect any government to predict this as well as world demand and weather-dependent supply two years ahead? How many of you guys lost because you made a mistake in predicting the market?

If anyone's got an answer to the above or I've (likely) misunderstood the figures, please do post!

It seems to be a better explanation of the ups and resultant downs of the rice scheme than blaming it all government corruption, although I don't deny the 'possiblity' of that.

I'd hate to have to analyse a few of Suthep's schemes, if he ever bothered to explain them in detail...

[MJP]

Will Thailand eventually become a failed state?

It's on its way.

It's already got a failed government.

This is one country that does much better when there is no government. I was here the last time there was this sort of limbo and everything ticked along just nicely. The sense of relief of being governmentless was palpable. Everything just carried on as usual.

[Basil B]

I'm no accountant or investor by any means, but having checked out rice prices over the last 60 months (indexmundi.com) I was surprised to find that the Thai government was buying rice in at well less than the average world price until very recently.

For example - in September 2011, the world price was $615 per metric ton, with another article stating that the Thai government payment to the farmers was $480 per metric ton.

The fall in the world price began in October 2011 until a blip in May 2012 where it rose again to $606.14 before falling again until December 2013's record low price of $447.55.In September 2012 the world price was $590.50,and it finally dropped below the government's purchase price last September.

Taking into account the government's need for profit and the fact that no government anywhere could be called altruistic, it seems there would have been enough space for profit between government buying and selling prices for a good few months before the bottom fell out of the world price.

Rice is a traded commodity influenced by world demand and the profits being made by dealers, Western corporate manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers as well as the supply worldwide.

Other SEA nations selling rice at less, thats commerce, how do you expect any government to predict this as well as world demand and weather-dependent supply two years ahead? How many of you guys lost because you made a mistake in predicting the market?

If anyone's got an answer to the above or I've (likely) misunderstood the figures, please do post!

It seems to be a better explanation of the ups and resultant downs of the rice scheme than blaming it all government corruption, although I don't deny the 'possiblity' of that.

I'd hate to have to analyse a few of Suthep's schemes, if he ever bothered to explain them in detail...

It's just another form of vote buying...

[Artisi]

Suthep and the Dems strategy is so obvious! It's not about being a dictator or wrangling for power nor is this even about Abhisit!

As some would suggest on this forum.

This is about exposing the faults of PTP (Pardon Thaskin party) It's about bringing the Shin a whats? down for good.

The Dems know deep down that nothing can change until these people are brought under control.

I think it is a great strategy. Risky? yes but I believe the momentum from the anti government will prevail and after the courts and independent

groups are finished this government will be finished. The protester's will go home. Suthep will go to jail (for awhile) Abhisit and the rest of Dems

will start getting their act together and start new fresh elections with oversight and a new charter. One that is fair for all and that will actually

benefit the Thai people.

The Shinawatras are not the root cause of this conflict. This conflict over control of Thailand and its "system" has been going on since 1932 look before Mr. Thaksin was standing up to relieve himself.

You are probably spot-on about the "system" however, I would only add, that once Thaksin learnt to stand-up and pee, he has been peeing all over the Thai people and done absolutely nothing to benefit anyone other than himself, although many seem to think for some reason he is the new messiah.

[Ulic]

Not sure what the problem is for political parties to give out 500 baht gifts to the party faithful to help cover

the expense of getting to the polls. In Phuket (Suthep country) when the police are caught on film collecting

huge bribes there is no uproar as the chief of police says there is absolutely nothing wrong with accepting

gifts (monthly) from shops. No story here it is OK, carry on collecting your gifts.