Survey: Most Thais will go to vote, oppose coup

[backtonormal]

Survey: Less Than Half of Thais will go to vote

Suan Dusit Poll survey published this afternoon revealed that only 45.56% of surveyed people said they planned to vote if the election goes ahead.

19.8% said they would not turn out to vote, 15.78% said they might vote depending on the situation at that time, 14% said they were unsure if they would vote or not, and 5.33% said they were not likely to vote.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571390540566.pdf

Don't take these Elitist-rooted Polls pretending to be public opinion too seriously.....For all intents and purposes, this Poll was put out by PDRC associates....NIDA Polls are another similar one.

You're 52 posts late in this thread as many members have already taken the results of the other poll posted earlier in the OP as the divine truth.

Still, I'm curious about your assertions. Could you share the names of the PDRC associates who control these polls? Who specifically are these "Elitist-rooted".

.

I gave a link, more of a 'doorway' to help those who do no research. It should have led you to many doors...but it was removed without reason

[MikeThaison]

Wait for the flood of Nay sayers, will question the validity of the poll,79.6 answered they will vote on February 2, 2014.

51,5 believe the election should be held as planned, 28.1% favored reform before the election!

47.1 % were determined to vote on election day, 34.3% would wait and see if no violence!

It does not say for whom they intend to vote< just that they plan to vote,What it does document that Suthep boycott has not changed the voters right to cast their vote on election day.,

Suthep again does not speak for the majority of Thai Voters!

What he has always championed is appointment to power of the minority, to rule the majority!

I told you so!

Last I knew 47.1% isn't the majority of Thailand either, so I don't know what you're going on about.

[backtonormal]

Wait for the flood of Nay sayers, will question the validity of the poll,79.6 answered they will vote on February 2, 2014.

51,5 believe the election should be held as planned, 28.1% favored reform before the election!

47.1 % were determined to vote on election day, 34.3% would wait and see if no violence!

It does not say for whom they intend to vote< just that they plan to vote,What it does document that Suthep boycott has not changed the voters right to cast their vote on election day.,

Suthep again does not speak for the majority of Thai Voters!

What he has always championed is appointment to power of the minority, to rule the majority!

I told you so!

Last I knew 47.1% isn't the majority of Thailand either, so I don't know what you're going on about.

100 seats more than the Dems ..now thats an ass wooping not a majority

[tx22cb]

Trouble is, in Thailand, if you don't vote in an election, you loose your right to vote in the following, or at least, that is what the uneducated, in the North are made to believe here. I wouldn't count on it being true, but people up here believe it is, so of course, they will vote, because they think, they will loose there voting privileges for the future, if they don't vote in this election.

VOTE NO !

I find your comment "VOTE NO !" intriguing.

I don't know enough about Thai voting rules nor about the factions' voting strategies.

If the elections were to proceed on the 2 Sundays, what do you think the Dems would ask their supporters to do? (Abstain or Vote No)

Similarly, what do you think Suthep would tell his followers to do?

(reason I'm asking is that I perceive you have a good take on the PDRC/Dem position on many issues)

[englishoak]

Why do people always talk about red villages - which is entirely symbolic and pretty meaningless in the scheme of things - and not talk about how the Democrats always take the Southern provinces by over 60% of the vote? What's the difference? Issan is more pluralistic and competitive, the fact that people keep going on about PDRC supporters from Issan should surely be proof of that. Why not focus on the South for once - where school directors who're believed by the local PDRC to be red are being chased out of town? They're behaving like the National Socialist Party storm troopers. People vote for Democrat candidates because the elders tell them to. And if you don't vote Democrat, you can expect the PDRC enforcers paying you a visit - even if you're peacefully trying to pray to Allah in your mosque. Nothing is sacred for these guys. If you're not out there whistling for Kamnan Suthep, you don't belong in the South or even in Thailand at all, according to their line of thought. What could be more fascist than that?

(Am employing deliberate hyperbole here - I do not believe exaggerated comparisons to "storm troopers" are useful. Although if you subtract that stuff, there's a degree of truth to it, at least as much as there is in Mackie's statement. It almost seems as though if the reds throw some paper at someone, it's worse than the holocaust whereas PDRC chase a guy doing his job out of town = good people performing good deeds?)

Why not? Find me one example anywhere in the world, apart from the North Korea, or Cambodia under Khmer rouge, where you have residents of 10,000 villages voting as one. It's anomaly, it's not normal. Thailand is not a democracy. The system is open to abuse and Thaksin and his cronies are taking the full advantage of it. The very existence of the country is in question. Thaksin introduced bullying and violence to Thai political scene. Assassinations, kidnappings, hand grenades into people's backyards etc...etc...A question for you. Do you think people like Jatuporn, Nattawut, Kwanchai, Arisman etc...etc... should be allowed to participate in Thai politics? As I said, the very dangerous precedent was made in 2010 because people who were responsible for deaths, terrorism and violence were rewarded. Suthep is only doing to them what they used to do to his administration. With one massive difference, Suthep's followers aren't fully armed, there is no paramilitary formation terrorizing Bangkokians.

Its perfectly normal here, Thailand gets what Thailand deserves and current issues are the result of decades of failings by dozens of coups and governments not just this one. We like to talk and examine things under the microscope and comparison of our own examples, truth is theres no point, here democracy is still in its very early stages but there is no question that the last decade has seen more improvement in the standard of living in the north than the previous 40 years combined. Now that is a hard nut to crack, whether we like or dont like the idea of certain candidates being allowed to stand is really moot, money and politics goes hand in hand here north or south it is the same both buy votes both bully for them. There isnt an innocent party here it is simply what it is.

Regarding the election being next week or in 3 mths again it dosnt really matter the bs of reform has been floating about for nigh on 20 years, nothing ever happens other than the faces in the trough change from time to time, 2 years from now there will be rumblings if we are lucky we might even see a full term, personally I have no faith whatsoever in the system here at all, the army isnt neutral nor any of the forces the police isnt, the judicial sector isnt, the civil servant depts arnt in fact everyone and everything is bought and biased one way or another. position and responsibility here means you use it to further your own aims or those you support, and get rewarded for that loyalty, usually financially.

This pretence of rich middle class being less violent might be true with their designer whistles as opposed to sticks and handgrenades but then they can afford to be. There isnt any policies that are geared to bettering the lives of the poor, there isnt any interest in actively installing a proper and effective education system and lifting them up into a well organised, well educated opinionated, self thinking entrepreneurs.

There is never a shake down of corrupt anyone, no purging of the corrupt police, no attempt to tame the forces into serving the country instead of the country serving them. This is a feudal system and bourgeois movement of the moment is not sincere, oh ive no doubt some that support it are but not at the top, it would only be token and will not alter a thing for the people in general.

If you ask the people most will say they want the army NOT to be involved in politics and NOT to get involved independently ( but not really ) when things get tough. Cant say much more here due to the rules but i don't believe anything will change at all until a certain faction is put out to graze permanently..

In the meantime ill just support the right to vote and a gov to run its full term, dont really care how bad or corrupt it is as long as its voted in, there is always another one just around the corner. what i do find funny is the inability of people to accept that bad people can do good things and good people can do bad things. Ie there is no white knight for Thailand and listening to a murdering, corrupt thief spewing rhetoric about another even worse and then claiming to want honesty reform and justice makes me want to puke. This is the reality of the place where the choice is a shit sandwich made from either dog or donkey poo.

If you like the taste of crap carry on with the one camp is all good the other is all bad. In the real world its all just a big pile of BS this is the wild east hooray for Thailand, just dont expect too much in the way of a happy ending without paying for it. Whatever happens as long as it happens by vote it will be because the people have allowed or chosen it and that it how a democracy is supposed to work, flawed it may be but its the best system there is until a new one is invented that no one has tried yet. All other systems have been proven to be disastrous.

One of my melancholy days, so forgive me for being downbeat for a change.

[Publicus]

Survey: Less Than Half of Thais will go to vote

Suan Dusit Poll survey published this afternoon revealed that only 45.56% of surveyed people said they planned to vote if the election goes ahead.

19.8% said they would not turn out to vote, 15.78% said they might vote depending on the situation at that time, 14% said they were unsure if they would vote or not, and 5.33% said they were not likely to vote.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571390540566.pdf

Don't take these Elitist-rooted Polls pretending to be public opinion too seriously.....For all intents and purposes, this Poll was put out by PDRC associates....NIDA Polls are another similar one.

You're 52 posts late in this thread as many members have already taken the results of the other poll posted earlier in the OP as the divine truth.

Still, I'm curious about your assertions. Could you share the names of the PDRC associates who control these polls? Who specifically are these "Elitist-rooted".

.

I gave a link, more of a 'doorway' to help those who do no research. It should have led you to many doors...but it was removed without reason

You need to give yourself another link or two because you missed the scope and the focus of each scientific survey.

The scientific public opinion survey research finding presented in the OP is of all the regions of Thailand, whereas the survey you cite is of metro Bangkok only.

The OP survey is of all regions of the country, conducted by Bangkok University.

The survey you cite is of Metro Bangkok only and was conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University.

Each survey has a reasonably valid statistical scientifically sleected sample size. Each scientific survey organization has been polling in Thailand for a good number of years.

Still, while the statistical sample is within the norms and standards of scientific public opinion survey research, the national survey might be a tad underweight while the metro Bangkok survey is a bit overweight, the standard sample size being 1100 respondents. This mild variance however would not be expected to affect the basic validity of the findings.

Survey: Most Thais Will Go To Vote, Oppose Coup

To the question "If the election is still held on 2 February election, will you exercise your voting rights?", the 79.6% of those surveyed answered yes, while 9.9% answered no, and the other 10.5% said they were not sure.

The survey, named Bangkok Poll as it was conducted by research centre of Bangkok University, interviews 1,018 respondents over the age of 18 from "every region" of the nation. (emphasis added)

********************************************************************************************************************

Half of Bangkokians pledge to vote

Almost half of people in Bangkok say they will definitely vote in the Feb 2 election, according to a Suan Dusit Poll survey published on Friday afternoon.

The pollsters at Suan Dusit Rajabhat University interviewed 1,484 people in Bangkok and nearby provinces between Jan 20 and 24. (emphasis added)

[honzad]

A massive sample that, 1,016 out how many elegible people?

Maths not your strong point it seems? It's more than adequate as a statistical sample, providing it was weighted correctly geographically and demographically. (Sorry to use long words.)

[Mosha]

I will go on record and suggest turn-out will be much lower than the poll. Maybe JT can do a Poll about the Poll?

Well upcountry you get 500 Baht for the vote....Husband, Wife, 4 grandparents, 2 grown up kids=4000 Baht.....not bad money

Down south they get even more if they come up and sleep in Bangkoks intersections. And they include free transport, tents, food and drinks

Can you please tell where to collect the money? Because we know a lot people who came from the south who don't get paid. A few run out of money already.

Yes food is for free.

Yes they can travel for free with the train as the labor union supports the democracy movement and allow free rides to the demonstrations. From Pattaya a couple of businesspeople rent Minivans to go and go back THEMSELF daily, I am sure they would also allow someone without money to ride for free, they would even buy him a Burger on the way.

But I never heard about money, actually Suthep is collecting donations every day...not handing them out. He is wealthy but not rich enough to pay hundred-thousands of people.

SIL and friends went from Ranong, just free transport and food.

[Mosha]

A massive sample that, 1,016 out how many elegible people?

Maths not your strong point it seems? It's more than adequate as a statistical sample, providing it was weighted correctly geographically and demographically. (Sorry to use long words.)

Why? Did you have to get your dictionary out?

[tsnyder]

Survey: Less Than Half of Thais will go to vote

Suan Dusit Poll survey published this afternoon revealed that only 45.56% of surveyed people said they planned to vote if the election goes ahead.

19.8% said they would not turn out to vote, 15.78% said they might vote depending on the situation at that time, 14% said they were unsure if they would vote or not, and 5.33% said they were not likely to vote.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571390540566.pdf

Don't take these Elitist-rooted Polls pretending to be public opinion too seriously.....For all intents and purposes, this Poll was put out by PDRC associates....NIDA Polls are another similar one.

You're 52 posts late in this thread as many members have already taken the results of the other poll posted earlier in the OP as the divine truth.

Still, I'm curious about your assertions. Could you share the names of the PDRC associates who control these polls? Who specifically are these "Elitist-rooted".

.

I gave a link, more of a 'doorway' to help those who do no research. It should have led you to many doors...but it was removed without reason

When happened when you PM'd the moderators to ask why?

[tsnyder]

Wait for the flood of Nay sayers, will question the validity of the poll,79.6 answered they will vote on February 2, 2014.

51,5 believe the election should be held as planned, 28.1% favored reform before the election!

47.1 % were determined to vote on election day, 34.3% would wait and see if no violence!

Last I knew 47.1% isn't the majority of Thailand either, so I don't know what you're going on about.

Me, too.

It reflects the blatant bias of Khao Sod news that they morph that into most Thais will vote wheresas other sources correctly state that it is less than half AKA "not most" will vote..

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/699111-survey-most-thais-will-go-to-vote-oppose-coup/page-3#entry7339780

Khao Sod news wants to reinvent math to get their dishonest message across.

[Spalpeen]

Some quotes from the posts in this thread :

.

3 Well upcountry you get 500 baht for the vote.......

4. ....that is what the uneducated in the north are made to believe.....

5 .....especially if they are paid......

19. I wonder what the average price of a vote will be.....

23. The reds were paying 800 baht per person......

39. Khmer Rouge style red villages......we're talking infants here, not adults.

.

And there are more comments in the same vein. When did it become acceptable on this forum for mostly middle aged white posters to casually cast racist slurs on the intelligence of ordinary Thai people and get away with it?

[Thait Spot]

BP says only 45% of BKK to vote

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[tsnyder]

The scientific public opinion survey research finding presented in the OP is of all the regions of Thailand, whereas the survey you cite is of metro Bangkok only.

The OP survey is of all regions of the country, conducted by Bangkok University.

The survey you cite is of Metro Bangkok only and was conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University.

Each survey has a reasonably valid statistical scientifically sleected sample size.

Both Bangok Uni's 47.1% and Suan Dusit Uni's 45.56% reflect very similar results.

Both reflect NOT Most Thais will vote.

As for "Metro Bangkok only" in Suan Dusit poll, one needs to specify what "surrounding provices" were polled and define just what the limits of Metro Bangkok are, but irregardless, it seems both polls are consistent in showing that less than half the Thais are determined to vote.

[rickirs]

bkkjames, on 24 Jan 2014 - 14:55, said:bkkjames, on 24 Jan 2014 - 14:55, said:

I will go on record and suggest turn-out will be much lower than the poll. Maybe JT can do a Poll about the Poll?

On the contrary, I believe that more people will turn-out so they can cast a NO vote as to make these elections null and void.

Assuming that there will be an election...........

When have you seen a demorcatic election ballot ask whether you agree with the election? An election ballot is used to VOTE for a candidate. If you want to spoil the ballot, ie., right remarks on it, etc., that's your right but it just doesn't get counted. Spoiled ballots do not void an election.

[Mackie]

Why do people always talk about red villages - which is entirely symbolic and pretty meaningless in the scheme of things - and not talk about how the Democrats always take the Southern provinces by over 60% of the vote? What's the difference? Issan is more pluralistic and competitive, the fact that people keep going on about PDRC supporters from Issan should surely be proof of that. Why not focus on the South for once - where school directors who're believed by the local PDRC to be red are being chased out of town? They're behaving like the National Socialist Party storm troopers. People vote for Democrat candidates because the elders tell them to. And if you don't vote Democrat, you can expect the PDRC enforcers paying you a visit - even if you're peacefully trying to pray to Allah in your mosque. Nothing is sacred for these guys. If you're not out there whistling for Kamnan Suthep, you don't belong in the South or even in Thailand at all, according to their line of thought. What could be more fascist than that?

(Am employing deliberate hyperbole here - I do not believe exaggerated comparisons to "storm troopers" are useful. Although if you subtract that stuff, there's a degree of truth to it, at least as much as there is in Mackie's statement. It almost seems as though if the reds throw some paper at someone, it's worse than the holocaust whereas PDRC chase a guy doing his job out of town = good people performing good deeds?)

Why not? Find me one example anywhere in the world, apart from the North Korea, or Cambodia under Khmer rouge, where you have residents of 10,000 villages voting as one. It's anomaly, it's not normal. Thailand is not a democracy. The system is open to abuse and Thaksin and his cronies are taking the full advantage of it. The very existence of the country is in question. Thaksin introduced bullying and violence to Thai political scene. Assassinations, kidnappings, hand grenades into people's backyards etc...etc...A question for you. Do you think people like Jatuporn, Nattawut, Kwanchai, Arisman etc...etc... should be allowed to participate in Thai politics? As I said, the very dangerous precedent was made in 2010 because people who were responsible for deaths, terrorism and violence were rewarded. Suthep is only doing to them what they used to do to his administration. With one massive difference, Suthep's followers aren't fully armed, there is no paramilitary formation terrorizing Bangkokians.

Its perfectly normal here, Thailand gets what Thailand deserves and current issues are the result of decades of failings by dozens of coups and governments not just this one. We like to talk and examine things under the microscope and comparison of our own examples, truth is theres no point, here democracy is still in its very early stages but there is no question that the last decade has seen more improvement in the standard of living in the north than the previous 40 years combined. Now that is a hard nut to crack, whether we like or dont like the idea of certain candidates being allowed to stand is really moot, money and politics goes hand in hand here north or south it is the same both buy votes both bully for them. There isnt an innocent party here it is simply what it is.

Regarding the election being next week or in 3 mths again it dosnt really matter the bs of reform has been floating about for nigh on 20 years, nothing ever happens other than the faces in the trough change from time to time, 2 years from now there will be rumblings if we are lucky we might even see a full term, personally I have no faith whatsoever in the system here at all, the army isnt neutral nor any of the forces the police isnt, the judicial sector isnt, the civil servant depts arnt in fact everyone and everything is bought and biased one way or another. position and responsibility here means you use it to further your own aims or those you support, and get rewarded for that loyalty, usually financially.

This pretence of rich middle class being less violent might be true with their designer whistles as opposed to sticks and handgrenades but then they can afford to be. There isnt any policies that are geared to bettering the lives of the poor, there isnt any interest in actively installing a proper and effective education system and lifting them up into a well organised, well educated opinionated, self thinking entrepreneurs.

There is never a shake down of corrupt anyone, no purging of the corrupt police, no attempt to tame the forces into serving the country instead of the country serving them. This is a feudal system and bourgeois movement of the moment is not sincere, oh ive no doubt some that support it are but not at the top, it would only be token and will not alter a thing for the people in general.

If you ask the people most will say they want the army NOT to be involved in politics and NOT to get involved independently ( but not really ) when things get tough. Cant say much more here due to the rules but i don't believe anything will change at all until a certain faction is put out to graze permanently..

In the meantime ill just support the right to vote and a gov to run its full term, dont really care how bad or corrupt it is as long as its voted in, there is always another one just around the corner. what i do find funny is the inability of people to accept that bad people can do good things and good people can do bad things. Ie there is no white knight for Thailand and listening to a murdering, corrupt thief spewing rhetoric about another even worse and then claiming to want honesty reform and justice makes me want to puke. This is the reality of the place where the choice is a shit sandwich made from either dog or donkey poo.

If you like the taste of crap carry on with the one camp is all good the other is all bad. In the real world its all just a big pile of BS this is the wild east hooray for Thailand, just dont expect too much in the way of a happy ending without paying for it. Whatever happens as long as it happens by vote it will be because the people have allowed or chosen it and that it how a democracy is supposed to work, flawed it may be but its the best system there is until a new one is invented that no one has tried yet. All other systems have been proven to be disastrous.

One of my melancholy days, so forgive me for being downbeat for a change.

In essence there are probably more things I agree with than disagree. However, I disagree with the approach to change things around. Patience is a virtue. Pushing things too fast and too far after people lived so many years in one system usually ends up in anarchy and civil war. Plenty of examples. And things do not get better, things get worse before they slightly improve. Just have a look at the Arab world or Eastern Europe. Some countries paid a heavy price for forcing changes too fast. I don't believe in a rapid change, I do feel that gradual change is more suitable to Thai mentality and the society as a whole.

Crap is all over the place. Tons of crap. No one disputes that. But still Thailand somehow got to be the best country to live in Southeast Asia, right behind Singapore. So all those horrible and terrible elites must have done something right. No? Western style democracy the best system? Let's take the U.S democracy for an example. Two parties, both owned by corporate America, serving their paymasters, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer. 60 million plus live in poverty. Votes count for nothing. Maybe the United Kingdom. Almost the same, two parties, plus Liberals. Serving only the corporate Britain, despising poor, promoting elites best interest, both Labour and Torry etc...etc...Labour ruled the country in 2005 with 35.3% of popular vote, 22% overall. Torries rule the country today with even less. That's your perfect system. It is seriously flawed and does not serve people. Corporations and rich elites are selling you fog. And you are buying it. Your vote counts for nothing in the UK. Your vote counts for nothing in the USA. If votes counted for anything, we wouldn't have engaged in so many wars which were rejected by people. Both Americans and British. There you have it. Democracy. But still will do it our way.

[culicine]

Survey: Less Than Half of Thais will go to vote

Suan Dusit Poll survey published this afternoon revealed that only 45.56% of surveyed people said they planned to vote if the election goes ahead.

19.8% said they would not turn out to vote, 15.78% said they might vote depending on the situation at that time, 14% said they were unsure if they would vote or not, and 5.33% said they were not likely to vote.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571390540566.pdf

Don't take these Elitist-rooted Polls pretending to be public opinion too seriously.....For all intents and purposes, this Poll was put out by PDRC associates....NIDA Polls are another similar one.

50% turnout is about what could be expected under current conditions. If PDRC are intelligent they will find out which constituencies have only one contestant, and encourage them to vote NO. The contestant must get 20% of all voting population, and the NO votes must not exceed the contestants votes. This is assuming the contestant is PT or an ally.

[ABCer]

Personally I wonder what is this idea of 'Reform Before Election' about?

We have a country of 76M paralyzed by design and intent of a group 50,000 - 100,000 strong, who demand a change of WHAT?

Constitution? - This isn't the right way or process.

They are screaming 'Corruption!'. True as it is this corruption isn't going anywhere. All they want is to be the beneficiaries of the same corruption.

Vote buying? - One way or another it is endemic to any Democracy.

If the winning gang has so much money to pay - let them win! Or re-educate people ( ) in the next 2,557 years. Or go back home and start saving so you can pay more.

This 'Council of 400 honest people' is a joke fit only for uneducated Thais graduated from Chula Uni who love the Heil Caesar salute.

Well, it could work if I would be their President...

[rickirs]

Especially if they are paid,who's going to refuse 500 bht. ?

regards Worgeordie

But as Korn admitted (as posted many times without some reading it), the Democrats paid out more than PTP last time around - so the pickings will be slimmer now with them not running!

As to not voting resulting in a lost vote, that is not so fanciful if the 'People's Council' replaces the elected Parliament.

But I think the usual suspects really knew these things already.

He didn't say they paid more to the people that's just red BS.

What he said was they spent more on election campaigning than PT.

PT just relied on unsustainable promises which are now coming back to haunt them.

Deputy Democrat party leader Alongkorn Ponlaboot in an interview that was broadcast on May 31, 2013 on John Winyu’s show (รองหัวหน้าพรรคประชาธิปัตย์กล่าวในรายการ “เจาะข่าวตื้น ตอน 99″) stated:

“Recently, if we speak directly, they [Puea Thai] use little money. I am not saying we [the Democrats] use more money than them [Puea Thai]. [host interprets with statement "they are using less money"]. It has become inverted [host interprets and says "They don't need to use so much money?"] I say if it is like that then don’t say we lost because of money”. “For the last election, it may be because we actually used more than them. Therefore, don’t talk about this issue anymore."

Where in that does it say that Dems spent more money on campaigning. When ever, previously, we have talked about PTP spending money at elections it is always in relation to alledged 'vote buying'. So it is fair to assume that Korns response was with the same theme. Dems buy more votes...how many more times will I have to post this.

There always seems to be a missed principle in a democractic electorial process in these discussions; and that is votes are "earned." If a party wants to sit "on its butt" and not go after new voters, it's irrelevant whether those voters are "bought" or not. If you don't make an effort, you lose. But the effort the Democrats must make is to adjust their political agenda to ATTRACT new voters. If it takes a more populist or a liberal agenda to get more voters to gain a majority, then Democrats need to move toward a more moderate position to attract new voters. But what Suthep's platform has been is to deny voters any vote, to even deny candidates to register for the election. He seems only interested in power and not the hearts and minds of the voters.

[kamahele]

I didn't notice any margin of error + / - posted in the article. I do think that the majority would still vote for the current government if a vote was held but the numbers in the poll seems a bit tilted in favor of the government.

[culicine]

A massive sample that, 1,016 out how many elegible people?

That is more than twice the number on any of Sutheps marches this week. 3 times the number on the one in Silom where he told the mob to Zig Zag to greet (take money off) more people

Maybe given that more people agreed with the elections from this sample than Suthep still has with him, we should go with their wishes!!!

Suthep could get a boy scout to block the street. Don't need protesters. He has new funding sources. BIG funding sources. He has enough money to carry out this protest until the next life. Without the right backing these supporters would have been cleaned off the street long ago. Police have their hands 'officially' tied and they don't like it at all.

[culicine]

I didn't notice any margin of error + / - posted in the article. I do think that the majority would still vote for the current government if a vote was held but the numbers in the poll seems a bit tilted in favor of the government.

Try +/- 30% or more, given only a 1000-odd sample size

[Thait Spot]

bkkjames, on 24 Jan 2014 - 14:55, said:bkkjames, on 24 Jan 2014 - 14:55, said:

I will go on record and suggest turn-out will be much lower than the poll. Maybe JT can do a Poll about the Poll?

On the contrary, I believe that more people will turn-out so they can cast a NO vote as to make these elections null and void.

Assuming that there will be an election...........

When have you seen a demorcatic election ballot ask whether you agree with the election? An election ballot is used to VOTE for a candidate. If you want to spoil the ballot, ie., right remarks on it, etc., that's your right but it just doesn't get counted. Spoiled ballots do not void an election.

You are wrong in this case.

A Thai ballot has a NO option

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Publicus]

The scientific public opinion survey research finding presented in the OP is of all the regions of Thailand, whereas the survey you cite is of metro Bangkok only.

The OP survey is of all regions of the country, conducted by Bangkok University.

The survey you cite is of Metro Bangkok only and was conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University.

Each survey has a reasonably valid statistical scientifically sleected sample size.

Both Bangok Uni's 47.1% and Suan Dusit Uni's 45.56% reflect very similar results.

Both reflect NOT Most Thais will vote.

As for "Metro Bangkok only" in Suan Dusit poll, one needs to specify what "surrounding provices" were polled and define just what the limits of Metro Bangkok are, but irregardless, it seems both polls are consistent in showing that less than half the Thais are determined to vote.

Of course specific information is needed as to which provinces surrounding Bangkok are in the metro Bangkok only survey. Still, the Bangkok only survey is thus limited and restricted in its parameters.

I'm looking at the national survey results quoted below and still searching for your 41.1% data of Thais who told the survey they will NOT vote.

To the question "If the election is still held on 2 February election, will you exercise your voting rights?", the 79.6% of those surveyed answered yes, while 9.9% answered no, and the other 10.5% said they were not sure.

Nevertheless, 47% of respondents said their determination to participate in the 2 February election is not affected by the ongoing political crisis, while the other 52.6% responded that the crisis have influenced their decisions.

In the latter group, 34.3% said they would wait and see if there would be violence before they decide to cast their ballots, and 18.3% said the crisis has dissuaded them from going to the election altogether.

[tsnyder]

bkkjames, on 24 Jan 2014 - 14:55, said:bkkjames, on 24 Jan 2014 - 14:55, said:

I will go on record and suggest turn-out will be much lower than the poll. Maybe JT can do a Poll about the Poll?

On the contrary, I believe that more people will turn-out so they can cast a NO vote as to make these elections null and void.

Assuming that there will be an election...........

When have you seen a demorcatic election ballot ask whether you agree with the election? An election ballot is used to VOTE for a candidate. If you want to spoil the ballot, ie., right remarks on it, etc., that's your right but it just doesn't get counted. Spoiled ballots do not void an election.

Spoiling ballots is illegal and are not counted.

Voting "no candidate" is not illegal and ARE counted. They can, if in sufficient numbers, void an election here.

.

Edited January 25, 2014 by tsnyder

[millwall_fan]

Survey: Less Than Half of Thais will go to vote

Suan Dusit Poll survey published this afternoon revealed that only 45.56% of surveyed people said they planned to vote if the election goes ahead.

19.8% said they would not turn out to vote, 15.78% said they might vote depending on the situation at that time, 14% said they were unsure if they would vote or not, and 5.33% said they were not likely to vote.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571390540566.pdf

So that means that 61.34% will either definitely vote or would like to vote if they don't feel intimidated or threatened and another 14% said they were' unsure', of whom, a percentage will presumably decide to vote - say 1/2 That puts turnout at 65.63% - meaning almost 2/3 of Thais would like Mr. Suthep to 'respect my vote'

BP says only 45% of BKK to vote

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

And the empirical evidence for these figures from this rabidly pro Suthep rag?

[Publicus]

The Suan Dusit poll is of Greater Bangkok only.

The Bangkok University poll is of all the regions of the country.

They are two different polls, each of which has a different focus group.

[pipkins]

A massive sample that, 1,016 out how many elegible people?

That is more than twice the number on any of Sutheps marches this week. 3 times the number on the one in Silom where he told the mob to Zig Zag to greet (take money off) more people

Maybe given that more people agreed with the elections from this sample than Suthep still has with him, we should go with their wishes!!!

Suthep could get a boy scout to block the street. Don't need protesters. He has new funding sources. BIG funding sources. He has enough money to carry out this protest until the next life. Without the right backing these supporters would have been cleaned off the street long ago. Police have their hands 'officially' tied and they don't like it at all.

They are just giving them enough rope.

Army chief has buggered off South and that is a demostration to Suthep that he ain't couping for him!!! He does not have the numbers.

Money does not buy 90% of the Country and backers are actually pulling out as they cannot be sure of a win from Suthep... And that directly from Sutheps no 2 to the press. He said that and followed up with "we need the donations and the money from sales of whistles and t-shirts."

Would not be sure about mr Bigs. Any commentators know who Thaksins backer is... apart from you obviously But that tale will have to be told in non-thai media which many here will not read as it does not support what Bluesky is saying.

One day soon, it will be considered ignorant to be a bluesky watcher. Just as ASTV faded and those Red Channels. People do not want to be thought of as stupid, and exposure to those channels means the viewer is just that

[tsnyder]

The scientific public opinion survey research finding presented in the OP is of all the regions of Thailand, whereas the survey you cite is of metro Bangkok only.

The OP survey is of all regions of the country, conducted by Bangkok University.

The survey you cite is of Metro Bangkok only and was conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University.

Each survey has a reasonably valid statistical scientifically sleected sample size.

Both Bangok Uni's 47.1% and Suan Dusit Uni's 45.56% reflect very similar results.

Both reflect NOT Most Thais will vote.

As for "Metro Bangkok only" in Suan Dusit poll, one needs to specify what "surrounding provices" were polled and define just what the limits of Metro Bangkok are, but irregardless, it seems both polls are consistent in showing that less than half the Thais are determined to vote.

Of course specific information is needed as to which provinces surrounding Bangkok are in the metro Bangkok only survey. Still, the Bangkok only survey is thus limited and restricted in its parameters.

I'm looking at the national survey results quoted below and still searching for your 41.1% data of Thais who told the survey they will NOT vote.

Nevertheless, 47% of respondents said their determination to participate in the 2 February election is not affected

Why do you persist with this "Bangkok only" nonsense.?

As said, it wasn't specified which of the surrounding provinces were included. Even adding metro bangkok does not encompass all the possible surrounding provinces. If, for example it included all or even most of the surrounding provinces, it would represent a significant portion of the Central Thailand region's opinion, which is often quite different to your "Bangkok only" erroneous assertion.

Until we ascertain which of the surrounding provinces were included, disingenuous labelling like "Bangkok only" isn't factual.

I didn't say 41.1, I wrote 47.1 (number copied from a previous poster).

I do see now in your above quote that is actually 47.

And yes, the 47 is still very similar to the other poll's 45.56 of those determined to vote in the election...if it happens.

[tsnyder]

Survey: Less Than Half of Thais will go to vote

Suan Dusit Poll survey published this afternoon revealed that only 45.56% of surveyed people said they planned to vote if the election goes ahead.

19.8% said they would not turn out to vote, 15.78% said they might vote depending on the situation at that time, 14% said they were unsure if they would vote or not, and 5.33% said they were not likely to vote.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571390540566.pdf

So that means that 61.34% will either definitely vote or would like to vote if they don't feel intimidated or threatened

It could mean that.

OR it could also mean 15.78% are feeling any number of other emotions or situations, such as digust with the whole situation, or a whole host of other reasons as to why they are NOT in the determined to vote category.

Thus the rest of your conjecture is based on only one of nearly endless possibilities.