Thai analysis: Still no clear end-game in sight after poll

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NATION ANALYSIS
Still no clear end-game in sight after poll
Somroutai Sapsomboon
The Nation



Low turnout, obstructions hurt govt; PDRC turns to agencies as army stays put

BANGKOK: -- After three months of protest, the anti-government People's Demo-cratic Reform Committee (PDRC) is still unable to finish its fight and oust the Yingluck Shinawatra government.

So the question lingers: "How will this game end?" A key PDRC leader has said this game is too big for the group alone to win. It needs help from powerful assistants: the military and independent agencies.

In an overview, this "game of power" is a fight between the government and the PDRC. Both are competing to claim legitimacy and that they are only using peaceful means.

The government's strategy is to depend on the law. Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's decision to dissolve the House on December 9 closed the possibility of her resignation in response to PDRC's demands, as she claimed the Constitution required a government to stay in charge as caretaker until a new government is formed.

After that, the government clung to power as it pushed for a February 2 election without postponement. It held on, despite the Election Commission (EC), the poll organiser, using both soft and hard requests for postponement, from expressing concern to asking the Constitutional Court to rule whether it could be postponed. The court, in a cautious move, could only determine that such change was possible but did not rule what the government must do.

While the government sees the election as a guarantee of its legitimacy, what we have seen from the election has not been as it had imagined.

Initial reports showed the turnout in areas where the election took place was 45.8 per cent - a drop from 75 per cent in the July 3, 2011 election.

Some people might claim that many voters were unable to vote because they were obstructed. But the figures show that even in areas unblocked by the protesters, such as the North and the Northeast - which are the voting base of the ruling Pheu Thai Party - the turnout also dropped to 51 per cent in the North and 55 per cent in the Northeast - while it was 77 and 72 per cent last time.

It is clear the House of Represent-atives will not be able to convene as fewer than 95 per cent of the MPs were voted in by this election, as required by law. The government will have to remain the caretaker without full mandate for a while yet. It would have to ask for permission before making important moves to solve major problems.

Also, since it has no authority to borrow money to pay farmers in the rice-pledging scheme, it seems the Pheu Thai's populist policies have begun to backfire.

On PDRC's side, the protesters have adopted a prolonged strategy in reducing the government's legitimacy over time and waiting for its hoped-for powerful assistants to complete their work. The PDRC tried to push the military to take its side but received no clear response. Therefore, it is turning to the independent agencies.

The prominent players now are the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and the Constitutional Court.

The NACC is investigating criminal charges and impeachment against senators and former MPs related to the Constitution amendment as well as rice-pledging scheme cases.

Yingluck is also being investigated as the top supervisor of the scheme. If indicted, the political office holders must be suspended from performing duties.

Meanwhile, the Democrat Party has submitted a party dissolution case with the Constitutional Court against Pheu Thai Party for its government-invoked emergency decree, which could be deemed as having caused advantage and disadvantage for election contestants.

In the past, that might have irritated Pheu Thai, but some key members say solutions have been prepared.

In case Yingluck should be suspended from work, a deputy could be put in charge. Meanwhile, a party dissolution charge is not so frightening to them, as Yingluck and key members of the party are not executive members.

Certainly, Pheu Thai does not worry about legitimacy. Although it must face those penalties, its government would still be in power despite them.

The military is not a problem for Pheu Thai either. Experience from the past seems to indicate the military would refrain from staging a coup. However, the government does not trust the military and chooses to use the police as its main force.

A key Pheu Thai member said a successful military coup would involve holding the PM hostage. Also, a government in exile in Chiang Mai or a northeastern province, as well as the red shirts' force to counter the military, might have been included in any plan.


-- The Nation 2014-02-05

[ShannonT]

Was that infographic done by a 5 year old? Why don't you guys hire some graphic designers that can actually produce things that are READABLE.

[mightyatom]

A key Pheu Thai member said a successful military coup would involve holding the PM hostage. Also, a government in exile in Chiang Mai or a northeastern province, as well as the red shirts' force to counter the military, might have been included in any plan.

I doubt a government could operate in the north, there would be an immediate replacement of the government in Bangkok and life would go on as normal. Any PTP government running from the north even contemplates hijacking the tax from these areas (as little as it would be) would result in seeing jet fighters raining down bombs on their headquarters.

Even any attempt to lay down a government will be quickly smashed apart by the armed forces.

The red shirt force to counter the military is the funniest of the lot. This so called force consists of probably less than 1000 hardliners stupid enough to fight the military and they would not last a single battle.

The police would not split and nor would the army. Any attempted defection will result in an immediate court martial and probably instant execution.

The worst that could be accomplished is a campaign of terrorism. It would bring about many casualties on both side including mostly innocents. But the north will face huge shortages as many commodities from the south will be cut off. All the suffering will happen in the north, the south will continue business as usual. The northerners will soon turn on their so called darling northern government.... Job done.

The PTP politicians will be rounded up and executed for treason.

[Stan7444]

How irresponsible it is to state, as a fair and balanced news reporter, that "It is clear the House of Representatives will not be able to convene as fewer than 95 per cent of the MPs were voted in by this election, as required by law" when the votes have not even be tallied at this time. This is one-sided news reporting and unacceptable.

Is Thailand now a "this way or that way" country with news reporters only siding on one or the other side? Where are fair negotiations, which the news media should "promote" instead of the "my way or the highway"?

Let us get real about this situation people. There has got to be a fairly negotiated peace between the war parties. Otherwise, we descend into civil war together, which nobody wants. What happened to the LOS? Not many smiles right now but just street protests from (personal opinion) the most un-democratic organization in the country - these protestors. The majority of the population do not seem to agree with these protestors, only the wealthy elite who continue to wish control over the country as they have had for centuries.

Reform: Great subject and I am all for it in many different sectors (education, political, social). Having chaired an educational reform committee, which went nowhere since the Ministry of Education was non-reform oriented (the former Democratic Party administration).

Final note: Where are the "DETAILED REFORM PLANS" from the protestors? Anything beyond the topic of reform? Who is supposed to be on this People's Committee? Academics, Business leaders, protestor leaders. Does not mention the majority of the people in Thailand, such as the people in the North and Northeast.

This People’s Committee might be a way for the Democratic Party again to win elections by eliminating the majority of Thai people in the process. Where are the People’s Committee’s commitment to protect the majority of Thai people? Would the suspension of such democratic processes be acceptable in Western democracies? Never! One person, one vote is the essential foundation of all democracies but some Thai academics have proposed more votes based upon amount of taxes paid, and other that the north people are so stupid, they should not be allowed to vote, which in itself is a stupid comment. These are all PhDs and wondering where they gained their educations