Are equities a poker game or what ?

[JesseFrank]

I have been investing in the stock market for the past 3 decades, with reasonable success. However since 2008 the fun is over for me as I have a hard time making a profit if any.

For the past year I have then also been selling whenever a stock in my portfolio has a moderate profit, without reinvesting the cash.

I still have quite some money in stocks that didn't turn a profit yet, however I have read all Buffett's books .

For example one stock I have in portfolio for almost 4 years, and had realized a 25% profit lately, was Arrow electronics. I had the feeling that they were gonna publish good quarterly figures, so had in mind to sell after the earnings date, which is today.

In the past 2 weeks the stock tanked 10% of it's high, but then the stock market as a whole went down over the same period, so I didn't make much of it.

Today was earnings date and these were the results ;

8:03 am Arrow Elec beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line (ARW) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.69 per share, $0.08 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.61; revenues rose 13.8% year/year to $6.15 bln vs the $5.81 bln consensus.

All positive as you can see.

Stock is down 2.5% so far

[OnMyWay2]

the whole market was down again today. as you can see tARW is pretty much trading with the market.

[JesseFrank]

I would expect that a company that beats estimations on every level would do, at least on the earning date, better than the market instead of worse than overall market.

[SheungWan]

I would expect that a company that beats estimations on every level would do, at least on the earning date, better than the market instead of worse than overall market.

A stock may beat on the top and bottom line but be negative on forward guidance.

[JesseFrank]

I would expect that a company that beats estimations on every level would do, at least on the earning date, better than the market instead of worse than overall market.

A stock may beat on the top and bottom line but be negative on forward guidance.

Noticed this one ?

guides Q1 EPS in-line

[SheungWan]

I would expect that a company that beats estimations on every level would do, at least on the earning date, better than the market instead of worse than overall market.

A stock may beat on the top and bottom line but be negative on forward guidance.

Noticed this one ?

guides Q1 EPS in-line

in-line may signify flat. Plus the sector not seen by the market positively.

[JesseFrank]

I would expect that a company that beats estimations on every level would do, at least on the earning date, better than the market instead of worse than overall market.

A stock may beat on the top and bottom line but be negative on forward guidance.

Noticed this one ?

guides Q1 EPS in-line

in-line may signify flat. Plus the sector not seen by the market positively.

When fourth quarter sales rose 14% year over year, then I read in line as an extension of the trend.

But of course, if you want to find a reason to justify the decline it is always possible .

How about the big boys manipulating the stock price ?

[SheungWan]

When fourth quarter sales rose 14% year over year, then I read in line as an extension of the trend.

But of course, if you want to find a reason to justify the decline it is always possible .

How about the big boys manipulating the stock price ?

The Q4 price is looking backwards. Share prices tend to discount the anticipated company fortunes forwards.

[JesseFrank]

When fourth quarter sales rose 14% year over year, then I read in line as an extension of the trend.

But of course, if you want to find a reason to justify the decline it is always possible .

How about the big boys manipulating the stock price ?

The Q4 price is looking backwards. Share prices tend to discount the anticipated company fortunes forwards.

Since on Yahoo Finance, out of 12 brokers following the stock, it get's 4 strong buy and 3 buy ratings the future is projected so doom I would say.

The stock also gets an overall analyst rating of 2.2, which is either no too bad.

[SheungWan]

When fourth quarter sales rose 14% year over year, then I read in line as an extension of the trend.

But of course, if you want to find a reason to justify the decline it is always possible .

How about the big boys manipulating the stock price ?

The Q4 price is looking backwards. Share prices tend to discount the anticipated company fortunes forwards.

Since on Yahoo Finance, out of 12 brokers following the stock, it get's 4 strong buy and 3 buy ratings the future is projected so doom I would say.

The stock also gets an overall analyst rating of 2.2, which is either no too bad.

I would suggest being rather careful about taking analyst ratings as gospel. Firstly they are snapshots in time so possibly out of date. Secondly, they may be right, but not just now, so it is up to you to decide whether you think the market has got it right re projecting say 9 months forward. If you are confident in the prospects for that stock, then a market drop can be viewed as an opportunity to buy.

[JesseFrank]

When fourth quarter sales rose 14% year over year, then I read in line as an extension of the trend.

But of course, if you want to find a reason to justify the decline it is always possible .

How about the big boys manipulating the stock price ?

The Q4 price is looking backwards. Share prices tend to discount the anticipated company fortunes forwards.

Since on Yahoo Finance, out of 12 brokers following the stock, it get's 4 strong buy and 3 buy ratings the future is projected so doom I would say.

The stock also gets an overall analyst rating of 2.2, which is either no too bad.

I would suggest being rather careful about taking analyst ratings as gospel. Firstly they are snapshots in time so possibly out of date. Secondly, they may be right, but not just now, so it is up to you to decide whether you think the market has got it right re projecting say 9 months forward. If you are confident in the prospects for that stock, then a market drop can be viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Take a look at Yahoo finance.

The analyst opinions for each stock are reviewed every week, while buy and sell ratings are made every month, so nothing about out of date.

And the reason for my thread was not my prospects for the stock, which are positive ny the way, but that too many stocks get manipulated behind the screen.

Edited February 6, 2014 by JesseFrank

[SheungWan]

Take a look at Yahoo finance.

The analyst opinions for each stock are reviewed every week, while buy and sell ratings are made every month, so nothing about out of date.

And the reason for my thread was not my prospects for the stock, which are positive ny the way, but that too many stocks get manipulated behind the screen.

I would be very wary about taking the totality of Yahoo analyst opinions however they are compiled as an expected predictor of the future. And Yahoo is just one information source. They are essentially out of date because they extrapolate the past to predict the future. And there are plenty of contrarians who would argue an otherwise approach. Plus in that gap I can take my own position whether to buy or sell. However, if you think that stocks are manipulated then just stay out of the market. It seems to be the fashion in some quarters to shout 'manipulation' when one loses big on trades. Me? I was hot until I wasn't and then I changed strategy. I didn't blame 'manipulation' for being in the place that I was.

Edited February 6, 2014 by SheungWan

[JesseFrank]

Take a look at Yahoo finance.

The analyst opinions for each stock are reviewed every week, while buy and sell ratings are made every month, so nothing about out of date.

And the reason for my thread was not my prospects for the stock, which are positive ny the way, but that too many stocks get manipulated behind the screen.

I would be very wary about taking the totality of Yahoo analyst opinions however they are compiled as an expected predictor of the future. And Yahoo is just one information source. They are essentially out of date because they extrapolate the past to predict the future. And there are plenty of contrarians who would argue an otherwise approach. However, if you think that stocks are manipulated then just stay out of the market. It seems to be the fashion in some quarters to shout 'manipulation' when one loses big on trades. Me? I was hot until I wasn't and then I changed strategy. I didn't blame 'manipulation' for being in the place that I was.

And how do you change strategy? Can you read the minds of the big players, they have a new fancy word for them these days, activist investors .

When they enter and you are short or long a stock based on your research, the only thing you can hope is that they think in the same direction as your research pointed, but most of the time it isn't and you are f**ked already.

[SheungWan]

Take a look at Yahoo finance.

The analyst opinions for each stock are reviewed every week, while buy and sell ratings are made every month, so nothing about out of date.

And the reason for my thread was not my prospects for the stock, which are positive ny the way, but that too many stocks get manipulated behind the screen.

I would be very wary about taking the totality of Yahoo analyst opinions however they are compiled as an expected predictor of the future. And Yahoo is just one information source. They are essentially out of date because they extrapolate the past to predict the future. And there are plenty of contrarians who would argue an otherwise approach. However, if you think that stocks are manipulated then just stay out of the market. It seems to be the fashion in some quarters to shout 'manipulation' when one loses big on trades. Me? I was hot until I wasn't and then I changed strategy. I didn't blame 'manipulation' for being in the place that I was.

And how do you change strategy? Can you read the minds of the big players, they have a new fancy word for them these days, activist investors .

When they enter and you are short or long a stock based on your research, the only thing you can hope is that they think in the same direction as your research pointed, but most of the time it isn't and you are f**ked already.

My strategy was to trade less, take a more long term position, stay blue chip plus take and reinvest good dividends.

[midas]

Take a look at Yahoo finance.

The analyst opinions for each stock are reviewed every week, while buy and sell ratings are made every month, so nothing about out of date.

And the reason for my thread was not my prospects for the stock, which are positive ny the way, but that too many stocks get manipulated behind the screen.

I would be very wary about taking the totality of Yahoo analyst opinions however they are compiled as an expected predictor of the future. And Yahoo is just one information source. They are essentially out of date because they extrapolate the past to predict the future. And there are plenty of contrarians who would argue an otherwise approach. Plus in that gap I can take my own position whether to buy or sell. However, if you think that stocks are manipulated then just stay out of the market. It seems to be the fashion in some quarters to shout 'manipulation' when one loses big on trades. Me? I was hot until I wasn't and then I changed strategy. I didn't blame 'manipulation' for being in the place that I was.

oh come on?

There are so many previously professional traders and investors, these days who cry foul about the corruption and utter dishonesty of the stock market today that you can line them up like tenpins.

[JesseFrank]

Take a look at Yahoo finance.

The analyst opinions for each stock are reviewed every week, while buy and sell ratings are made every month, so nothing about out of date.

And the reason for my thread was not my prospects for the stock, which are positive ny the way, but that too many stocks get manipulated behind the screen.

I would be very wary about taking the totality of Yahoo analyst opinions however they are compiled as an expected predictor of the future. And Yahoo is just one information source. They are essentially out of date because they extrapolate the past to predict the future. And there are plenty of contrarians who would argue an otherwise approach. However, if you think that stocks are manipulated then just stay out of the market. It seems to be the fashion in some quarters to shout 'manipulation' when one loses big on trades. Me? I was hot until I wasn't and then I changed strategy. I didn't blame 'manipulation' for being in the place that I was.

And how do you change strategy? Can you read the minds of the big players, they have a new fancy word for them these days, activist investors .

When they enter and you are short or long a stock based on your research, the only thing you can hope is that they think in the same direction as your research pointed, but most of the time it isn't and you are f**ked already.

My strategy was to trade less, take a more long term position, stay blue chip plus take and reinvest good dividends.

That has always been my strategy, 90% of the stocks currently in my portfolio are there since 2010, the other 10% is there prior to 2007 and I don't expect to turn break even on those ever again.

As I said, i'm investing for the past 3 decades, so i have learned a bit about how to research a stock.

[SheungWan]

Take a look at Yahoo finance.

The analyst opinions for each stock are reviewed every week, while buy and sell ratings are made every month, so nothing about out of date.

And the reason for my thread was not my prospects for the stock, which are positive ny the way, but that too many stocks get manipulated behind the screen.

I would be very wary about taking the totality of Yahoo analyst opinions however they are compiled as an expected predictor of the future. And Yahoo is just one information source. They are essentially out of date because they extrapolate the past to predict the future. And there are plenty of contrarians who would argue an otherwise approach. Plus in that gap I can take my own position whether to buy or sell. However, if you think that stocks are manipulated then just stay out of the market. It seems to be the fashion in some quarters to shout 'manipulation' when one loses big on trades. Me? I was hot until I wasn't and then I changed strategy. I didn't blame 'manipulation' for being in the place that I was.

oh come on?

There are so many previously professional traders and investors, these days who cry foul about the corruption and utter dishonesty of the stock market today that you can line them up like tenpins.

There are always guys on the sidelines blaming others for their trades which went south. Its never them.

[SheungWan]

That has always been my strategy, 90% of the stocks currently in my portfolio are there since 2010, the other 10% is there prior to 2007 and I don't expect to turn break even on those ever again.

As I said, i'm investing for the past 3 decades, so i have learned a bit about how to research a stock.

You started off the thread referring to Arrow Elec. Why them?

[JesseFrank]

That has always been my strategy, 90% of the stocks currently in my portfolio are there since 2010, the other 10% is there prior to 2007 and I don't expect to turn break even on those ever again.

As I said, i'm investing for the past 3 decades, so i have learned a bit about how to research a stock.

You started off the thread referring to Arrow Elec. Why them?

Because that stock was one of the few stocks in my portfolio with a profit, actually 27% on 15 January, and as I mentioned earlier I'm currently selling as soon as i realise a reasonable profit. So my intention was to sell it after the earnings date, as the prognoses looked good, but since 15 January it went steady down with 10%, and the expected flare after the positive figures turned out to be bigger than market average decline.

[JesseFrank]

Let me add another one That I intended to sell on the earnings date as it had reached a profit of 25% on 17 January, but since had declined by 7%

Earnings date was today.

7:46 am Alere beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line (ALR) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.68 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.62; revenues rose 2.2% year/year to $772.3 mln vs the $770.59 mln consensus.

Down 6% today, within the first 30 minutes a trading volume above 3 month average daily volume

Edited February 6, 2014 by JesseFrank

[SheungWan]

That has always been my strategy, 90% of the stocks currently in my portfolio are there since 2010, the other 10% is there prior to 2007 and I don't expect to turn break even on those ever again.

As I said, i'm investing for the past 3 decades, so i have learned a bit about how to research a stock.

You started off the thread referring to Arrow Elec. Why them?

Because that stock was one of the few stocks in my portfolio with a profit, actually 27% on 15 January, and as I mentioned earlier I'm currently selling as soon as i realise a reasonable profit. So my intention was to sell it after the earnings date, as the prognoses looked good, but since 15 January it went steady down with 10%, and the expected flare after the positive figures turned out to be bigger than market average decline.

Yes, I understand that the market didn't fall into step with your time schedule, but the question was really directed at what was the nature of the business that attracted you, the industry, the company position in that industry.

Edited February 7, 2014 by SheungWan

[JesseFrank]

That has always been my strategy, 90% of the stocks currently in my portfolio are there since 2010, the other 10% is there prior to 2007 and I don't expect to turn break even on those ever again.

As I said, i'm investing for the past 3 decades, so i have learned a bit about how to research a stock.

You started off the thread referring to Arrow Elec. Why them?

Because that stock was one of the few stocks in my portfolio with a profit, actually 27% on 15 January, and as I mentioned earlier I'm currently selling as soon as i realise a reasonable profit. So my intention was to sell it after the earnings date, as the prognoses looked good, but since 15 January it went steady down with 10%, and the expected flare after the positive figures turned out to be bigger than market average decline.

Yes, I understand that the market didn't fall into step with your time schedule, but the question was really directed at what was the nature of the business that attracted you, the industry, the company position in that industry.

My portfolio is very diversified, as a healthy portfolio should be, and to select the stocks I use the many analyzing tools provided by my stock broker and other sources on the web. Also notice that all stocks in my portfolio were purchased 4 years ago, with a few left overs from before the start of the economic downturn end of 2007.

That is about as far as an average investor can get. If several of those analyzing programs give the same buy signal for a particular stock, then I consider it worth buying.

Edit to add : At current time I have still 17 Stocks in my portfolio, of which 2 have turned a profit and which both have shed more than 20% of that profit over the past 3 weeks while announcing positive earnings

Edited February 7, 2014 by JesseFrank

[SheungWan]

My portfolio is very diversified, as a healthy portfolio should be, and to select the stocks I use the many analyzing tools provided by my stock broker and other sources on the web. Also notice that all stocks in my portfolio were purchased 4 years ago, with a few left overs from before the start of the economic downturn end of 2007.

That is about as far as an average investor can get. If several of those analyzing programs give the same buy signal for a particular stock, then I consider it worth buying.

Edit to add : At current time I have still 17 Stocks in my portfolio, of which 2 have turned a profit and which both have shed more than 20% of that profit over the past 3 weeks while announcing positive earnings

Bottom line is that those programs aren't working for you now. 'Buy' signals and other paraphanalia from the chartist school is not a done deal and shouldn't be regarded as such. Just because they have worked for you in the past is not a passport for the future.

[JesseFrank]

My portfolio is very diversified, as a healthy portfolio should be, and to select the stocks I use the many analyzing tools provided by my stock broker and other sources on the web. Also notice that all stocks in my portfolio were purchased 4 years ago, with a few left overs from before the start of the economic downturn end of 2007.

That is about as far as an average investor can get. If several of those analyzing programs give the same buy signal for a particular stock, then I consider it worth buying.

Edit to add : At current time I have still 17 Stocks in my portfolio, of which 2 have turned a profit and which both have shed more than 20% of that profit over the past 3 weeks while announcing positive earnings

Bottom line is that those programs aren't working for you now. 'Buy' signals and other paraphanalia from the chartist school is not a done deal and shouldn't be regarded as such. Just because they have worked for you in the past is not a passport for the future.

So far you have given a lot of comments about what doesn't work, so maybe you could give a suggestion about what does work.

[SheungWan]

My portfolio is very diversified, as a healthy portfolio should be, and to select the stocks I use the many analyzing tools provided by my stock broker and other sources on the web. Also notice that all stocks in my portfolio were purchased 4 years ago, with a few left overs from before the start of the economic downturn end of 2007.

That is about as far as an average investor can get. If several of those analyzing programs give the same buy signal for a particular stock, then I consider it worth buying.

Edit to add : At current time I have still 17 Stocks in my portfolio, of which 2 have turned a profit and which both have shed more than 20% of that profit over the past 3 weeks while announcing positive earnings

Bottom line is that those programs aren't working for you now. 'Buy' signals and other paraphanalia from the chartist school is not a done deal and shouldn't be regarded as such. Just because they have worked for you in the past is not a passport for the future.

So far you have given a lot of comments about what doesn't work, so maybe you could give a suggestion about what does work.

What I am comfortable with is blue chip stocks which consistently pay a good dividend and which I believe in long-term. If the price drops I am encouraged to buy and if it rises sufficiently I will sell. In the meantime I am content to sit on it and collect the dividend and reinvest that dividend. It is primarily the dividend income which motivates me. The selling of the stock a secondary consideration. Sometimes I wish I had sold ahead of an announcement but hey-ho.