Divided Thailand faces warnings of civil war

[laolover88]

There are not many places it is possible to read dispassionate comment on all of this.

This one has some interesting articles: http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/

I think the whole thing has little to do with democracy. And little to do with Bangkok versus the North East's Urban

villagers. Nor rich versus poor. I live in Issan and many people here are little different from Germany's part time farmers. Many of them are quite well off and, while, with reservations, admiring Thaksin, think he was daft not to go for

the 'buggins turn' option/agreement in Thai political life, where you take it in turns to steal as much as you can whilein office. So he tried to, and is still trying, to hang in there and extract every Baht. It will be interesting to see

which snout, or snouts, ends up elbowing the rest out of the trough!

[wileycoyote]

This is a difficult time,but I honestly doubt if civil war is an option ,at the end of the day it is only politics !

[KimoMax]

I lived for a number of years in central Bangkok. I left there 9 years ago and am so glad I did. Especially since 2010 and now with all the violence going on right in the areas where foreigners and tourists live and visit.

If I did still live there, I would probably be leaving Bangkok or would have left already.

I hav avoided going to Bangkok since the Songkron Riots and also recently since the protests.

In late December I had to go to Bangkok at the US Embassy there. I had tried to plan my trip around all the protests schedules, but I too was caught up exiting the Embassy right into the middle of a big PDRC protest. Fortunately this was just before the major violence had started. However, I had to walk all the way from the Embassy to Soi Nana. All of Wireless and Sukhumvit was full of protesters on parade who were non-violent.

In the past, never in my wildest dreams did I consider such protests would be in these areas. I was wrong.

Now violence and confrontaions occur on a regular basis in the main areas of Bangkok where expats and tourists freequent.

And I see most expats that do live there now are in denial of everything going on around them.

Bangkok is not the happy safe place it used to be.

The 2006 coup and Airport closure were walks in the park compared to the present situation.

Things can and do suddenly and unexpectidly happen there now.

But even outside Bangkok can become a powder keg if things continue on there present course.

Edited February 26, 2014 by KimoMax

[Yunla]

French revolution springs to mind. From the absolutely convincing source of watching the film Les Miserables, I seem to recall the times after the revolution weren't exactly bliss, though.

Overthrowing the monarchy in France is regarded as one of the reasons France took armistice and let Hitler walk right in. A constitutional-monarchy would have been much slower to surrender to the Germans than the French government were, in the view of many people including myself.

Also removal of monarchy later allowed openly communist leaders like Mitterrand to take the helm, famously visiting Mao during the genocidal famine and returned to Europe describing Mao as "a great scholar known in the entire world for the diversity of his genius" and "I repeat in order to be clearly understood - there is no famine in China."

Hollande was also a Mitterrand acolyte and shared many of his hard-left views, views which crippled France under Mitterrand.

A safer balance is constitutional monarchy, this acts as a safety-net to prevent the government from rolling over like a puppydog when foreign invaders are at the borders, and prevents autocratic communism from sneaking into office. However much I respect democracy, I do believe that historically significant sovereign lineages should not be overthrown but co-exist in order to enforce patriotism and a sense of national identity, as a defence-mechanism if nothing else.

Edited February 26, 2014 by Yunla

[simondan]

'Thailands equivalent of the FBI'? Are they serious? More like Thailand's equivalent of the Keystone Cops.

Sent from my GT-I9300T using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[DrTuner]

Also removal of monarchy later allowed openly communist leaders like Mitterrand to take the helm, famously visiting Mao during the genocidal famine and returned to Europe describing Mao as "a great scholar known in the entire world for the diversity of his genius" and "I repeat in order to be clearly understood - there is no famine in China."

Communism is something Thailand hasn't tried yet. Worked wonderfully for the neighbors, wouldn't be surprised if they jumped on that train. The color is right.

[zakk9]

Also removal of monarchy later allowed openly communist leaders like Mitterrand to take the helm, famously visiting Mao during the genocidal famine and returned to Europe describing Mao as "a great scholar known in the entire world for the diversity of his genius" and "I repeat in order to be clearly understood - there is no famine in China."

Communism is something Thailand hasn't tried yet. Worked wonderfully for the neighbors, wouldn't be surprised if they jumped on that train. The color is right.

They seem to have the methods right too

[a99az]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

After five years i left this fallen country already two weeks ago.

You left two weeks ago! we left last October. We can always go back but you can't if you are dead. Truth is I don't think there is much chance of us returning permanently, to unstable.

[jayjay49]

French revolution springs to mind. From the absolutely convincing source of watching the film Les Miserables, I seem to recall the times after the revolution weren't exactly bliss, though.

Overthrowing the monarchy in France is regarded as one of the reasons France took armistice and let Hitler walk right in. A constitutional-monarchy would have been much slower to surrender to the Germans than the French government were, in the view of many people including myself.

Also removal of monarchy later allowed openly communist leaders like Mitterrand to take the helm, famously visiting Mao during the genocidal famine and returned to Europe describing Mao as "a great scholar known in the entire world for the diversity of his genius" and "I repeat in order to be clearly understood - there is no famine in China."

Hollande was also a Mitterrand acolyte and shared many of his hard-left views, views which crippled France under Mitterrand.

A safer balance is constitutional monarchy, this acts as a safety-net to prevent the government from rolling over like a puppydog when foreign invaders are at the borders, and prevents autocratic communism from sneaking into office. However much I respect democracy, I do believe that historically significant sovereign lineages should not be overthrown but co-exist in order to enforce patriotism and a sense of national identity, as a defence-mechanism if nothing else.

Your knowledge of European history is not correct. Mitterrand was no Communist. The overthrown monarchy after the 'Bastille' had nothing to do with the Germans invading France in the second World War. But indeed a revolt against the Bangkokian 'Aristocracy' and 'Oligarchs' is a next step in the Thai process towards a fair democratic society!

Edited February 26, 2014 by jayjay49

[monkeycountry]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

yes of course to 'protect democracy' you think the fascist Suthep will 'protect democracy'? where is Suthep's plans? reforms? who makes up the fascist Council? we don't know anything about his 'alternative to democracy'

only we must trust Suthep

let the people decide at an ELECTION - that's the democratic way

PS I'm against violence and will condemn it on EITHER side as should we all - good piece from AFP

Democracy is a means to and end, not a goal in itself, and obvious to many of us, democracy does not (yet) work for Thailand.

Noone, inlcuding Suthep himself, are suggesting Suthep becomes PM. A recent poll showed that most people would accept a neutral non elected PM until things have been sorted out and proper elections can be held, and people such as former PM Anand were suggested by some, not all. If that solution could help us out of the current crisis, I see no reason for "democracy" to stand in the way?

[Benmart]

"Absolutely, there will be civil war if all sides do not respect rules," General Prayut Chan-O-Cha wrote in an SMS to AFP

From my observation, rules are ignored on a regular basis in the LOS. So much so, that one only has to look at roadway death statistics; pollution of waterways, beaches and land; and corruption at all levels of government, etc., all of which are awash with rules to deter non-compliance.

Rules are broken in every country, fortunately by what seems to be a minority of people. The main differnce for me is that I live in Thailand and observe the downhill slide of The Rule of Law with a degree of sadness.

In my opinion, The Rule of Law seems to have been replaced by "The Rule of the Mob". Civil disobedience and civil violence are close cousins of civil war and as such are unwelcome relations. I would be inclined to leave the door unanswered, should they come knocking.

[plachon]

"Absolutely, there will be civil war if all sides do not respect rules," General Prayut Chan-O-Cha wrote in an SMS to AFP

From my observation, rules are ignored on a regular basis in the LOS. So much so, that one only has to look at roadway death statistics; pollution of waterways, beaches and land; and corruption at all levels of government, etc., all of which are awash with rules to deter non-compliance.

Rules are broken in every country, fortunately by what seems to be a minority of people. The main differnce for me is that I live in Thailand and observe the downhill slide of The Rule of Law with a degree of sadness.

In my opinion, The Rule of Law seems to have been replaced by "The Rule of the Mob". Civil disobedience and civil violence are close cousins of civil war and as such are unwelcome relations. I would be inclined to leave the door unanswered, should they come knocking.

Do not confuse "rules" referred to by Gen Prayut with the law or anything written down. He is talking about the unspoken "rules of the game" about how the country is run and who is allowed to benefit or who is excluded. These were understood by all parties in the game of politics, until Thaksin decided not only to bend them in his favour, but flagrantly disregard them. A temporary truce was called at the start of Yingluk's premiership when she met with Prem, but this truce has clearly broken down now and the "rulebook" has been trampled upon again. It's questionable whether the new order trying to assert itself will succeed, without drawing up a whole new set of rules......but who gets to adjudicate them is the burning question, when the old umpires are now mostly over 80 yrs old?

[ianf]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

Both parties are violent, but we are facing the possibility of a civil war that started the first day Suthep started his rallies.

He's the only one responsible for that and should be stopped before it's too late.

The threat of civil war has been here since the fascist red shirts took over Bangkok a few years back. Nothing to do with the correct thing that Suthep is doing now. But a lot to do with how Thaksin has divided the country because he wants POWER more than anything else.

[ratcatcher]

Thai politics is complicated! Who benefits from a civil war?

If you could kill all the entrenched elite, almost everyone else would benefit.

"If you could kill all the entrenched elite, almost everyone else would benefit."

[Showbags]

Thailand does not have the balls for a civil war...so it will not happen.

[Kwanting]

OK, Suthep! We know you want power and money. What is your price? Power, we can not guarantee you, but how much do you want to blow off this game in the sandbox? We neither love Thaksin's family, or you and your "political friends". We might be able to collect what you need to not be too jealous of Thaksin's billions.

Then we'll explain to you what "real democracy" means.

Come on! How much?

Don't blame me for poor English - blame Google Translate!

[ratcatcher]

OK, Suthep! We know you want power and money. What is your price? Power, we can not guarantee you, but how much do you want to blow off this game in the sandbox? We neither love Thaksin's family, or you and your "political friends". We might be able to collect what you need to not be too jealous of Thaksin's billions.

Then we'll explain to you what "real democracy" means.

Come on! How much?

Don't blame me for poor English - blame Google Translate!

"OK, Suthep! We know you want power and money"

Incorrect. Suthep wants to rid Thailand of the Shinawatra cancer. Plain and simple.. He wouldn't have the support that he does if there was any other agenda.

If you are Thai, would you settle for Thaksin's return? Do you really think Suthep is jealous of Thaksin?

[pinklaopanther]

I just don't want to contemplate an all out civil war here, it saddens me so much. But, more violence is inevitable.The thugs (on all sides of this clusterfxxx of a situation )who can throw a grenade here, gun down a few people there. It's already happening. This is already a war of sorts. And nobody knows how on earth it's going to pan out. Worrying times ahead.

Many countries have had to go through internal conflict in the past, why should Thailand be an exception?

[DrTuner]

Civil war in Thailand would probably escalate to a total war with very heavy collateral damage. Just take a look at what happens when the Thais get into a bar fight. Not something to want for.

[fasteddie]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

yes of course to 'protect democracy' you think the fascist Suthep will 'protect democracy'? where is Suthep's plans? reforms? who makes up the fascist Council? we don't know anything about his 'alternative to democracy'

only we must trust Suthep

let the people decide at an ELECTION - that's the democratic way

PS I'm against violence and will condemn it on EITHER side as should we all - good piece from AFP

I trust the 'fascist' over the red shirts false 'democracy' anytime. Reforms first then elections. Until the problems are fixed, democracy will continue to fail this country. You guys talk a lot of about elections and democracy and yet we've seen years of unrest and kleptocracy. The violence that's happening right now is what Shinawatra 'democracy' has brought us. You guys love red democracy so much. Wait till they come to Bangkok again and when there are ashes of burnt buildings again like 2010, you'll see what red democracy is about.

Democracy is worth fighting for!

These demonstrations are just the death throes of the old guard.

[Bkkbound]

Now that the military have moved decisively into position the civil war scenario will evaporate, the country will be called upon to rally round the King,Religion and State. Woe betide anyone not toeing the line.

This particular Thai soap opera is in its final episode, now lets get back to watching the boxing..

[wooloomooloo]

Thailand does not have the balls for a civil war...

There's no shortage of doom-mongers.

I can't foresee a civil war arising from a tame demonstration confined to limited areas of Bangkok.

Your average Thai hasn't got the time as life's primary objective is to earn money in order to eat and survive another day.

A civil war isn't going to happen.

Edited February 26, 2014 by wooloomooloo

[JRSoul]

Thailand does not have the balls for a civil war...

There's no shortage of doom-mongers.

I can't foresee a civil war arising from a tame demonstration confined to limited areas of Bangkok.

Your average Thai hasn't got the time as life's primary objective is to earn money in order to eat and survive another day.

A civil war isn't going to happen.

A civil war isn't going to happen..............unless enough financial incentive is applied.

[wooloomooloo]

...unless enough financial incentive is applied.

No one has that much money.

Edited February 26, 2014 by wooloomooloo

[BAFC]

Having read through this thread, some of the people who have contributed, get a life. Civil war not happening.life up hear in the shin heartland is good.

Why would Yingluck not spend time up here, Chiang Mai is in Thailand. Her home town.

Why not, enjoy a few days at home Yingluck. And all you ex-pats who have nothing better to do tban criicise her sense fashion and where she travels too next. You are becoming a joke.

Bangkok is the only place that matters in a lot of peopls world.

Thailand is a lot bigger than that.

Sent from my GT-S5830T using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[JRSoul]

...unless enough financial incentive is applied.

No one has that much money.

You might be surprised. There are always "donations" to be collected as well. G/f's parents 'donated' for the 2010 insurrection, with the promise of ten times repayment when Thaksin is returned to office.

[Bkkbound]

...unless enough financial incentive is applied.

No one has that much money.

You might be surprised. There are always "donations" to be collected as well. G/f's parents 'donated' for the 2010 insurrection, with the promise of ten times repayment when Thaksin is returned to office.

LOL.. you are joking right? The promises of untold riches has been the basis of Taksins fraudulent claims to power. Don't be surprised to see the courts deal ruthlessly with the shinawatra wealth in a much more aggressive way. The PDP need to focus on an alternative credible political leader to take through the next period of Thailands development

[ponchi]

...unless enough financial incentive is applied.

No one has that much money.

You might be surprised. There are always "donations" to be collected as well. G/f's parents 'donated' for the 2010 insurrection, with the promise of ten times repayment when Thaksin is returned to office.

you see ??

what this man do. so bad !!

i think your family better give the money to kamnan thep.

he fight for the THAI country and not take any money.

he lose everything for my country. now is poor man like the farmer.

[belg]

take out the trash & start over with a clean slate ?

cival war or just civil unrest & more protests ?

if you see the police, hardly working, only collecting

[tonglen]

It will be near impossible for the police to remove the protesters. The below picture is why.....

That answers my question: "Is Pad Thai low calorie?

Nope.