Divided Thailand faces warnings of civil war

[jackw]

Someone should probably point out that the Thai term that

gets translated "civil war" just means "fight in capital".

Edited February 25, 2014 by jackw

[Fookhaht]

Someone should probably point out that the Thai term that

gets translated "civil war" just means "fight in capital".

...except for possibly the carnage in Trat, Roi-et, etc.?

[Credo]

All the talk about the "neutral" army putting things straight brings up one interesting point: It is significant to note that the vast number of rank-and-file in the army--the lowly foot soldiers--are made up of recruits and conscripts from the 20-million population of NE Thailand--Isaan--the stronghold of the UDD. I wonder how neutral the "privates" would remain in a civil-war scenario, or even another coup? Would their obedience to military authority outweigh their upbringing and home ties? We might get a ringside seat to a breakdown of military authority if all Purgatory broke loose.

I think the big problem will be the loyalties within the armed forces, with 1,700 + generals, it's a matter of which of them is loyal to whom.

The loyalty of the soldiers is always a concern during civil strife and that shouldn't be underestimated. There are a lot of watermelons in the group.

The other problem is the various militias that are largely independent, many of them operating in the deep south. There are a lot of quasi-governmental groups with arms and/or access to arms.

Quite a scary scenario if things go bad.

Edited February 25, 2014 by Credo

[MunterHunter]

Yes but what are the reforms that Suthep has in mind?

If they are genuine reforms designed to cut down corruption and government monopoly then I will support it.

But Suthep refuses to divulge the reforms until after he has taken power!

That is a very dangerous thing to accept and the reason why I cannot support such a movement.

I fear one of the reforms is cutting the voting rights of poor and less educated citizens.

C'mon Suthep, what reforms do you have in mind...

It hasnt been well publizied in the papers, but he did talk about the 'peoples council' and reforms before.

He has stated, many times, he will not take any position in the Peoples council except for an administration post.. he wont be an active participant. The peoples council will be made up of all members of society, although the process on how they will be selected isnt clear.

I remember seeing/reading something about the peoples council will decide on what reforms that will be needed, i assume (hope) thats by National Public referendum.

So, in summary, Sethep wont be part of the unelected peoples council and the peoples council will determine what reforms are needed once they are in session.

Doesnt sound quite so evil when you present the facts (as stated) - does it? Kinda sounds sensible and right really.

[ShannonT]

Someone should probably point out that the Thai term that

gets translated "civil war" just means "fight in capital".

...except for possibly the carnage in Trat, Roi-et, etc.?

Just to be politically correct here ...the violence at Roi-et was gang-related, not political.

[Yunla]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I am staying here till I die, one way or another. I already informed my lawyer in the UK five years ago that when I'm gone I want my savings to be given to my best friend here in Thailand, a single Mum with two young daughters struggling to stay afloat here in Bangkok. Her family have become my family over the last decade, and I will die happy knowing my remaining savings will go to help those two kids go to school and college.

I'm not scared for my own safety here in the city, even if it becomes a far more serious conflict. I'm very worried about the safety of my Thai friends here, and also concerned about their financial security under these corrupt regimes. I'm concerned about the safety and security of all citizens here nationwide. But I will die here and I don't honestly care how, I'm old and I've seen enough horrors around the world, Thailand has never scared me like other places did, and it won't scare me even if things escalate. I think the answer to your question will vary from person to person a lot. I still believe things will stabilise here, but it will get worse before it gets better.

Edited February 25, 2014 by Yunla

[garyk]

Look's like the deep south is safer than BKK! Since this mess started I haven't been keeping up the bombings south?

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I sold everything I had in the states and bought a small home there close to the HEB( supermarket ) If it gets too bad. I will head back home. Been here so long now I feel like one of the gang. But, have a safety net back home.

I keep two pickups in the garage a 2006 Toyota, 2007 Ford. Kinda funny 6 years ago one of the trucks was new. Now it is 6 years old and never hardly driven. Haven't been back in two years this hop.

Edited February 25, 2014 by garyk

[kratiam]

so why is no one doing anything to prevent or deter the people who throw grenades and shoot at innocent people?

It would be interesting to see what was in the job description for a Policeman here in Thailand. I wonder if upholding the law is top of the agenda?

You think it's EVEN ON the agenda?

[bigbamboo]

The reds are acting on Thaksins orders and he desperately wants a coup to be able to say his proxy Govt has been overthrown.

So Thaskin actually wants his government overthrown

That`ll do his business interests and ego the world of good

I`ve heard it all now!

Yes.

He wants it overthrown by the military because he knows very well it and he is on the last legs.

Once the army takes over he can say his democratically elected Govt was overthrown by a coup and get international sympathy which would do his ego a lot of good.

He would be the injured party and as far as business interest interests go it would give him an opportunity to buy shares at a fire sale price when other investors quit the market.

It's certainly plausible. And then afterwards we would go back to 2010 all over again.

Depressing thought isn't it.

[philw]

Someone should probably point out that the Thai term that

gets translated "civil war" just means "fight in capital".

...except for possibly the carnage in Trat, Roi-et, etc.?

Just to be politically correct here ...the violence at Roi-et was gang-related, not political.

Sorry to correct you, but I think you mean factually correct.

A concept elusive to the Suthep fans on here.

[billd766]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I appreciate Robby's post. Those who think and plan for any eventuality are the least likely to be unfortunate victims of civil unrest.

I was caught at the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war in 1973 in the Middle East, and since then have always adhered to the following precautions, also taken from the advice of other expats and journalists who have lived/worked in other unsettled regions of the world:

1. Keep passport & accompanying documents up-to-date with no overstay/visa/tax problems. Consider keeping an open-ended air ticket (where the departure/dates times can be changed) to anywhere out of the region, keeping in mind the precaution in #2.

2. Consider an overland exit point due to the fact that the country's main airports would likely be swamped with foreigners and Thais (with means) who would be taking the most obvious exit route. The airport could be overwhelmed for days or weeks.

3. Keep enough cash on hand (read that: "out of the bank") to safely get out of the country.

4. Have at least one or two transportation back-up plans to your exit destination.

5. Keep a "bug-out bag" -- a small backpack ready at all times (documents, water, essential medicines, cash, etc.)

6. Confide your plans to as few as possible; preferably only to those you trust who might be able to assist you with #2 or #4.

Hope it never comes to having to execute any of these steps, but as the poster suggested--certainly doesn't hurt to think and plan while not under the duress of a sudden emergency.

Very good tips, thanks.

So sad that it has come to this though. A few years ago, if you posted these tips, you would have been called nuts because it was just unthinkable that sh%t would get so bad. Now unfortunately, better safe then sorry. Hell I even have 20 packs of MREs and tons of mineral water stocked up just in case.

Says it all................

The rest of us are getting on with life and running our businesses etc.

Really, 20 packs ??

Well known TV posters who seem to want and support divisive confrontation in Thailand have got their MRE's and exit strategies planned......................

The rest of us will hope that civil war never happens and continue to live here with our Thai friends, families and businesses.

It is not often that I agree with philw but this time I am shoulder to shoulder with him.

I haven't even planned tomorrows lunch yet. but I do know that I will still be here come what may with my Thai family until I die.

[kratiam]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I appreciate Robby's post. Those who think and plan for any eventuality are the least likely to be unfortunate victims of civil unrest.

I was caught at the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war in 1973 in the Middle East, and since then have always adhered to the following precautions, also taken from the advice of other expats and journalists who have lived/worked in other unsettled regions of the world:

1. Keep passport & accompanying documents up-to-date with no overstay/visa/tax problems. Consider keeping an open-ended air ticket (where the departure/dates times can be changed) to anywhere out of the region, keeping in mind the precaution in #2.

2. Consider an overland exit point due to the fact that the country's main airports would likely be swamped with foreigners and Thais (with means) who would be taking the most obvious exit route. The airport could be overwhelmed for days or weeks.

3. Keep enough cash on hand (read that: "out of the bank") to safely get out of the country.

4. Have at least one or two transportation back-up plans to your exit destination.

5. Keep a "bug-out bag" -- a small backpack ready at all times (documents, water, essential medicines, cash, etc.)

6. Confide your plans to as few as possible; preferably only to those you trust who might be able to assist you with #2 or #4.

Hope it never comes to having to execute any of these steps, but as the poster suggested--certainly doesn't hurt to think and plan while not under the duress of a sudden emergency.

Very good tips, thanks.

So sad that it has come to this though. A few years ago, if you posted these tips, you would have been called nuts because it was just unthinkable that sh%t would get so bad. Now unfortunately, better safe then sorry. Hell I even have 20 packs of MREs and tons of mineral water stocked up just in case.

Says it all................

The rest of us are getting on with life and running our businesses etc.

Really, 20 packs ??

Well known TV posters who seem to want and support divisive confrontation in Thailand have got their MRE's and exit strategies planned......................

The rest of us will hope that civil war never happens and continue to live here with our Thai friends, families and businesses.

What are MREs? Do I need some? Where can I get some? What do you do with them?

[SeaVisionBurma]

Post containing selective quoting removed.

Please do not alter other member's posts when quoting them thanks

[54321]

i am no expert in thai affairs, but it seems to me like no politician can be trusted. Call in the UN, the UK,the USA, richard bloody branston, anyone, pay them a million, a billion baht, a trillion baht or whatever they want and ask them to govern the country for a few years and establish a decent system to run the country after they leave. The hatred between the two sides seems so entrenched that there will never be stability if either is in power under the current system.

Both red shirts and yellow shirt guards or whatever they call them should be removed and arrested, as should the crazy leaders of both sides. I do not know enough about the police or army but if they are not fit for purpose (like the schools) they should be replaced

As PM (red, yellow or whatever) you need to set your familly and nationalistic loyalties aside and do something for the good of the Country

[billd766]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I am staying here till I die, one way or another. I already informed my lawyer in the UK five years ago that when I'm gone I want my savings to be given to my best friend here in Thailand, a single Mum with two young daughters struggling to stay afloat here in Bangkok. Her family have become my family over the last decade, and I will die happy knowing my remaining savings will go to help those two kids go to school and college.

I'm not scared for my own safety here in the city, even if it becomes a far more serious conflict. I'm very worried about the safety of my Thai friends here, and also concerned about their financial security under these corrupt regimes. I'm concerned about the safety and security of all citizens here nationwide. But I will die here and I don't honestly care how, I'm old and I've seen enough horrors around the world, Thailand has never scared me like other places did, and it won't scare me even if things escalate. I think the answer to your question will vary from person to person a lot. I still believe things will stabilise here, but it will get worse before it gets better.

Me too except I live out in rural Thailand where most violence occurs at the annual fair when the teenagers are pissed out of their skulls and the hormones are raging.

[CockneyGit]

Yes but what are the reforms that Suthep has in mind?

If they are genuine reforms designed to cut down corruption and government monopoly then I will support it.

But Suthep refuses to divulge the reforms until after he has taken power!

That is a very dangerous thing to accept and the reason why I cannot support such a movement.

I fear one of the reforms is cutting the voting rights of poor and less educated citizens.

C'mon Suthep, what reforms do you have in mind...

It hasnt been well publizied in the papers, but he did talk about the 'peoples council' and reforms before.

He has stated, many times, he will not take any position in the Peoples council except for an administration post.. he wont be an active participant. The peoples council will be made up of all members of society, although the process on how they will be selected isnt clear.

I remember seeing/reading something about the peoples council will decide on what reforms that will be needed, i assume (hope) thats by National Public referendum.

So, in summary, Sethep wont be part of the unelected peoples council and the peoples council will determine what reforms are needed once they are in session.

Doesnt sound quite so evil when you present the facts (as stated) - does it? Kinda sounds sensible and right really.

This ''People's Council'' is utter nonsense. Does anybody actually believe that this would be an ''independent'' council..??

It would just be the old school politicos running things from behind.

The so called ''reforms'' that are needed are for the authorities to genuinely crack down on corruption and give lengthy prison sentences to those who are caught.

Sadly though this will NEVER happen as corruption is inherant in Thai society and will remain so, certainly for the rest of my lifetime.

[15Peter20]

Yes but what are the reforms that Suthep has in mind?

If they are genuine reforms designed to cut down corruption and government monopoly then I will support it.

But Suthep refuses to divulge the reforms until after he has taken power!

That is a very dangerous thing to accept and the reason why I cannot support such a movement.

I fear one of the reforms is cutting the voting rights of poor and less educated citizens.

C'mon Suthep, what reforms do you have in mind...

It hasnt been well publizied in the papers, but he did talk about the 'peoples council' and reforms before.

He has stated, many times, he will not take any position in the Peoples council except for an administration post.. he wont be an active participant. The peoples council will be made up of all members of society, although the process on how they will be selected isnt clear.

I remember seeing/reading something about the peoples council will decide on what reforms that will be needed, i assume (hope) thats by National Public referendum.

So, in summary, Sethep wont be part of the unelected peoples council and the peoples council will determine what reforms are needed once they are in session.

Doesnt sound quite so evil when you present the facts (as stated) - does it? Kinda sounds sensible and right really.

The manifesto you present here has more holes than a Swiss cheese. And you lend your support to that rather than allowing the electorate the chance to unseat a government that will inevitably (don't they all in the end) come across as sufficiently incompetent and scandal-ridden.

The basis for your argument remains, and can only be, conjecture - that we'll end up with Thaksin governing like an asian Mugabe. Well, there's a lot that can happen between allowing this government its final year in office and having an asian Mugabe in control.

The fact that your fear of a Thaksin dictatorship outweighs any misgivings about the gaping policy chasms you are prepared to endorse suggests to me that there must be some other reason for your embrace of Suthep. It's like preferring an unknown outcome to a highly unlikely bad outcome. I don't get it.

[Fookhaht]

Post containing selective quoting removed.

Please do not alter other member's posts when quoting them thanks

Ellipses have always been allowed on TV. Are they still?

[SeaVisionBurma]

Post containing selective quoting removed.

Please do not alter other member's posts when quoting them thanks

Ellipses have always been allowed on TV. Are they still?

Have a look through the forum rules:

30) Do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes, added emoticons, or altered wording.

[MunterHunter]

It's like preferring an unknown outcome to a highly unlikely bad outcome. I don't get it.

You are either new or a Red Shirt...

Highly Unlikely Bad Outcome?

I think it would be fair to say that most (if not all) except the Red Fanatics would agree that letting Thaksin back to the helm is tantermount to suicide... Thailand would be a republic/one party democracy within a very short period of time... His opponents would be targetted and either intimidated into surrender or 'disappear' (as history has already shown us)... He would fill the police and military with his supporters and shut down any opposition (as history has already shown us) He would ride roughshod over the courts and bribe any who might vote against him (as history has already shown us) and his goon squad - the red faction - would hunt down anyone who tried to oppose him (as history is showing us now)

You still think that 'outcome' is 'highly unlikely'? I say to you that outcome is almost guarenteed.

So yeah, i'll take a peoples council and reforms - even though those reforms have not been fleshed out yet - over a Red Thailand controlled with Thaksin's Iron fist...

[TVGerry]

Very good tips, thanks.

So sad that it has come to this though. A few years ago, if you posted these tips, you would have been called nuts because it was just unthinkable that sh%t would get so bad. Now unfortunately, better safe then sorry. Hell I even have 20 packs of MREs and tons of mineral water stocked up just in case.

Says it all................

The rest of us are getting on with life and running our businesses etc.

Really, 20 packs ??

Well known TV posters who seem to want and support divisive confrontation in Thailand have got their MRE's and exit strategies planned......................

The rest of us will hope that civil war never happens and continue to live here with our Thai friends, families and businesses.

Just because someone's on the other side of the political spectrum doesn't mean he's hoping that a bloody conflict occurs. Both parties have legitimate gripes against each other here.

You can hope civil war never happens and you can continue to live with your friends and family and keep running your business. That doesn't mean you shouldn't be prepared for the worst. Better to have that 20 MREs stocked in the cabinet and hope they're never used then to wish you had something to eat if sh#t hits the fan. And while you may not want to leave your friends and your business, as a foreigner, you have the option of doing so if things get as bad as a lot of TV members seem to make if 'the other side' wins. Oh Fascism, Maoism, Communism and other extremes come to mind.

Edited February 25, 2014 by TVGerry

[blaze]

Yes but what are the reforms that Suthep has in mind?

If they are genuine reforms designed to cut down corruption and government monopoly then I will support it.

But Suthep refuses to divulge the reforms until after he has taken power!

That is a very dangerous thing to accept and the reason why I cannot support such a movement.

I fear one of the reforms is cutting the voting rights of poor and less educated citizens.

C'mon Suthep, what reforms do you have in mind...

It hasnt been well publizied in the papers, but he did talk about the 'peoples council' and reforms before.

He has stated, many times, he will not take any position in the Peoples council except for an administration post.. he wont be an active participant. The peoples council will be made up of all members of society, although the process on how they will be selected isnt clear.

I remember seeing/reading something about the peoples council will decide on what reforms that will be needed, i assume (hope) thats by National Public referendum.

So, in summary, Sethep wont be part of the unelected peoples council and the peoples council will determine what reforms are needed once they are in session.

Doesnt sound quite so evil when you present the facts (as stated) - does it? Kinda sounds sensible and right really.

The manifesto you present here has more holes than a Swiss cheese. And you lend your support to that rather than allowing the electorate the chance to unseat a government that will inevitably (don't they all in the end) come across as sufficiently incompetent and scandal-ridden.

The basis for your argument remains, and can only be, conjecture - that we'll end up with Thaksin governing like an asian Mugabe. Well, there's a lot that can happen between allowing this government its final year in office and having an asian Mugabe in control.

The fact that your fear of a Thaksin dictatorship outweighs any misgivings about the gaping policy chasms you are prepared to endorse suggests to me that there must be some other reason for your embrace of Suthep. It's like preferring an unknown outcome to a highly unlikely bad outcome. I don't get it.

We still do not know what specific changes to the political, social and economic culture of Thailand is being proposed by these people. Is it a wish to take Thailand back to a glorious period before democracy and its assorted ills set in? Is it a desire to rid the thai consciousness of all that it is ashamed of? To reinvent mankind?

And yet blindly- supposedly educated westerners applaud this madness with nothing more to justify their gleeful support of Suthep than their blind hatred of the Shinawatras.

Millenarianism (also millenarism) is the belief by a religious, social, or political group or movement in a coming major transformation of society, after which all things will be changed. Millennialism is a specific form of millenarianism based on a one-thousand-year cycle, which many sects of different religions believe.

Modern examples include Naziism, Fascism, Stalinism, Khmer Rouge, Shining Path, the Cultural Revolution in China--Soon to be added: The Peoples' Council for Absolute Democracy.

And the comical thing is that it doesn't matter WHAT family or political party threatens the comfortable (until recently) stranglehold that the establishment has had on this country- they will all meet the same fate- and the blind accolytes will swallow the demonization that rationalizes neutralizing all threats to the old way of doing things.

Edited February 25, 2014 by blaze

[taony]

I think its a great leap from what's going on now to a civil war. This word is just getting thrown around by the Thai media all too easily. There is no battle of ideologies going on here, just two sides of "my favorite guy is better than your favorite guy". Competing schools of hero worship is all it is. Things could get much worse, but civil war? come on. Most people involved are simple (simpletons?), on both sides, and will fade away when the bleep hits the fan.Only a few hardliners will be left to battle it out and how intense will it get? civil war level? The weapons that people have are leftovers still lying around from wars of decades ago. what heavy weaponry is there to sustain any kind of civil war? What international backing does either side have, like in the case of Syria? At this point I can only see it getting to riot level at worst. Sure riot level on a national scale, much more than we have now, chaos, a bit (more) of anarchy, but a civil war is a much bigger thing. This is just bands of people pissed off at each other. There are no maoists, or communists, or even fascists, really, involved here.

[15Peter20]

It's like preferring an unknown outcome to a highly unlikely bad outcome. I don't get it.

You are either new or a Red Shirt...

Highly Unlikely Bad Outcome?

I think it would be fair to say that most (if not all) except the Red Fanatics would agree that letting Thaksin back to the helm is tantermount to suicide... Thailand would be a republic/one party democracy within a very short period of time... His opponents would be targetted and either intimidated into surrender or 'disappear' (as history has already shown us)... He would fill the police and military with his supporters and shut down any opposition (as history has already shown us) He would ride roughshod over the courts and bribe any who might vote against him (as history has already shown us) and his goon squad - the red faction - would hunt down anyone who tried to oppose him (as history is showing us now)

You still think that 'outcome' is 'highly unlikely'? I say to you that outcome is almost guarenteed.

So yeah, i'll take a peoples council and reforms - even though those reforms have not been fleshed out yet - over a Red Thailand controlled with Thaksin's Iron fist...

Thanks for putting me straight on what exactly I am. And there I was thinking I was not new and not a red shirt. Just goes to show how little we know about ourselves, huh...

Anyway, as an addendum to your catalog of conjecture, I proffer the following:

- the people would eventually try to vote out a Thaksin controlled government

- suppressed as you suggest, the people would fight for their democratic rights, as they are doing now

- foreign countries would place trade embargoes on the nation and also cut tourist income to pressure the government

- intervention from the unspeakables would further weaken the government's grasp

- support for tyrannical leadership among government workers and army regulars would wane

- the tyrant's system would crumble from the inside

- the cult of Thaksin would become weak and he would be deposed internally

- the UN would oversee fresh multiparty elections

- the nation will have come through an important and historical lesson, hopefully never to be repeated as in politically more developed countries.

Please feel free to add more of your own 'would/could' predictions. This is fun!

Edited February 25, 2014 by 15Peter20

[Robby nz]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

I am staying here till I die, one way or another. I already informed my lawyer in the UK five years ago that when I'm gone I want my savings to be given to my best friend here in Thailand, a single Mum with two young daughters struggling to stay afloat here in Bangkok. Her family have become my family over the last decade, and I will die happy knowing my remaining savings will go to help those two kids go to school and college.

I'm not scared for my own safety here in the city, even if it becomes a far more serious conflict. I'm very worried about the safety of my Thai friends here, and also concerned about their financial security under these corrupt regimes. I'm concerned about the safety and security of all citizens here nationwide. But I will die here and I don't honestly care how, I'm old and I've seen enough horrors around the world, Thailand has never scared me like other places did, and it won't scare me even if things escalate. I think the answer to your question will vary from person to person a lot. I still believe things will stabilise here, but it will get worse before it gets better.

I sincerely hope you are right about the last bit mate, but I tell you, I came here to live not to die.

And living in my book means doing the things that I enjoy doing without having to worry about what others will do.

Up till recently I, like you, had planned for this to be my last resting place but (again) even though there are many who would consider me old I don't feel old and can still do the things I want to do.

Therefore I have no wish to leave myself in a position where there in an untoward risk of having my time cut short by someones pet political hate.

Right now there are no problems where I am, so I wait to see.

[Robby nz]

It's like preferring an unknown outcome to a highly unlikely bad outcome. I don't get it.

You are either new or a Red Shirt...

Highly Unlikely Bad Outcome?

I think it would be fair to say that most (if not all) except the Red Fanatics would agree that letting Thaksin back to the helm is tantermount to suicide... Thailand would be a republic/one party democracy within a very short period of time... His opponents would be targetted and either intimidated into surrender or 'disappear' (as history has already shown us)... He would fill the police and military with his supporters and shut down any opposition (as history has already shown us) He would ride roughshod over the courts and bribe any who might vote against him (as history has already shown us) and his goon squad - the red faction - would hunt down anyone who tried to oppose him (as history is showing us now)

You still think that 'outcome' is 'highly unlikely'? I say to you that outcome is almost guarenteed.

So yeah, i'll take a peoples council and reforms - even though those reforms have not been fleshed out yet - over a Red Thailand controlled with Thaksin's Iron fist...

Thanks for putting me straight on what exactly I am. And there I was thinking I was not new and not a red shirt. Just goes to show how little we know about ourselves, huh...

Anyway, as an addendum to your catalog of conjecture, I proffer the following:

- the people would eventually try to vote out a Thaksin controlled government

- suppressed as you suggest, the people would fight for their democratic rights, as they are doing now

- foreign countries would place trade embargoes on the nation and also cut tourist income to pressure the government

- intervention from the unspeakables would further weaken the government's grasp

- support for tyrannical leadership among government workers and army regulars would wane

- the tyrant's system would crumble from the inside

- the cult of Thaksin would become weak and he would be deposed internally

- the UN would oversee fresh multiparty elections

- the nation will have come through an important and historical lesson, hopefully never to be repeated as in politically more developed countries.

Please feel free to add more of your own 'would/could' predictions. This is fun!

can you give us an estimation of the time that would take and in that time could you give us an estimate of how many would have to die.

Me I would prefer to see something done to now to prevent all the death and destruction.

[tallfarang]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

After five years i left this fallen country already two weeks ago.

Heard you the first time. Bbye

[15Peter20]

You are either new or a Red Shirt...

Highly Unlikely Bad Outcome?

I think it would be fair to say that most (if not all) except the Red Fanatics would agree that letting Thaksin back to the helm is tantermount to suicide... Thailand would be a republic/one party democracy within a very short period of time... His opponents would be targetted and either intimidated into surrender or 'disappear' (as history has already shown us)... He would fill the police and military with his supporters and shut down any opposition (as history has already shown us) He would ride roughshod over the courts and bribe any who might vote against him (as history has already shown us) and his goon squad - the red faction - would hunt down anyone who tried to oppose him (as history is showing us now)

You still think that 'outcome' is 'highly unlikely'? I say to you that outcome is almost guarenteed.

So yeah, i'll take a peoples council and reforms - even though those reforms have not been fleshed out yet - over a Red Thailand controlled with Thaksin's Iron fist...

Thanks for putting me straight on what exactly I am. And there I was thinking I was not new and not a red shirt. Just goes to show how little we know about ourselves, huh...

Anyway, as an addendum to your catalog of conjecture, I proffer the following:

- the people would eventually try to vote out a Thaksin controlled government

- suppressed as you suggest, the people would fight for their democratic rights, as they are doing now

- foreign countries would place trade embargoes on the nation and also cut tourist income to pressure the government

- intervention from the unspeakables would further weaken the government's grasp

- support for tyrannical leadership among government workers and army regulars would wane

- the tyrant's system would crumble from the inside

- the cult of Thaksin would become weak and he would be deposed internally

- the UN would oversee fresh multiparty elections

- the nation will have come through an important and historical lesson, hopefully never to be repeated as in politically more developed countries.

Please feel free to add more of your own 'would/could' predictions. This is fun!

can you give us an estimation of the time that would take and in that time could you give us an estimate of how many would have to die.

Me I would prefer to see something done to now to prevent all the death and destruction.

Sure thing! I'd say the whole thing could take 6 months to a year. Several hundred to a few thousand to die.

Just my estimation. What's your estimation time/death wise for the looming civil war we're hearing about now, given that Suthep has now provided the chance for it to happen?

[blaze]

It's like preferring an unknown outcome to a highly unlikely bad outcome. I don't get it.

You are either new or a Red Shirt...

Highly Unlikely Bad Outcome?

I think it would be fair to say that most (if not all) except the Red Fanatics would agree that letting Thaksin back to the helm is tantermount to suicide... Thailand would be a republic/one party democracy within a very short period of time... His opponents would be targetted and either intimidated into surrender or 'disappear' (as history has already shown us)... He would fill the police and military with his supporters and shut down any opposition (as history has already shown us) He would ride roughshod over the courts and bribe any who might vote against him (as history has already shown us) and his goon squad - the red faction - would hunt down anyone who tried to oppose him (as history is showing us now)

You still think that 'outcome' is 'highly unlikely'? I say to you that outcome is almost guarenteed.

So yeah, i'll take a peoples council and reforms - even though those reforms have not been fleshed out yet - over a Red Thailand controlled with Thaksin's Iron fist...

Thanks for putting me straight on what exactly I am. And there I was thinking I was not new and not a red shirt. Just goes to show how little we know about ourselves, huh...

Anyway, as an addendum to your catalog of conjecture, I proffer the following:

- the people would eventually try to vote out a Thaksin controlled government

- suppressed as you suggest, the people would fight for their democratic rights, as they are doing now

- foreign countries would place trade embargoes on the nation and also cut tourist income to pressure the government

- intervention from the unspeakables would further weaken the government's grasp

- support for tyrannical leadership among government workers and army regulars would wane

- the tyrant's system would crumble from the inside

- the cult of Thaksin would become weak and he would be deposed internally

- the UN would oversee fresh multiparty elections

- the nation will have come through an important and historical lesson, hopefully never to be repeated as in politically more developed countries.

Please feel free to add more of your own 'would/could' predictions. This is fun!

can you give us an estimation of the time that would take and in that time could you give us an estimate of how many would have to die.

Me I would prefer to see something done to now to prevent all the death and destruction.

What would 'be done' in your home country if 'peaceful protesters' had shut down the major arteries, the government, the police (basically through the courts demanding nothing more abraisive than kid gloves)?

The cost so far of this 'peaceful protest' (peaceful because nobody dare oppose it)--

National flag carrier Thai Airways International releases 2013 results on Tuesday and is expected to report a huge loss. It may cite a slump in tourism since the protests began last November as one of the factors.

Trade figures released on Tuesday showed a huge 15.5 percent drop in imports in January from a year before, reflecting weakness in consumption, construction and other activities as the political crisis deepened. Exports dropped 2 percent.

Thailand is an export base for top global car makers and a major producer of hard disk drives.

Imports were lower in most sectors, with machines and parts down 16 percent year-on-year, computers and parts down 19 percent, auto parts down 31.8 percent, steel products down 14.3 percent and consumer goods down 5.3 percent.

Do you understand why this protest is pissing off a lot of people who may NOT be red supporters?

Maybe it's time that all Thais decided to settle their differences at the ballot boxes- a token gesture would be for foreigners to support them in this.

There is no Santa Claus-= and if there were, he wouldn't be a warlord from Surat Thani.

Edited February 25, 2014 by blaze

[MunterHunter]

Anyway, as an addendum to your catalog of conjecture, I proffer the following:

- the people would eventually try to vote out a Thaksin controlled government

- suppressed as you suggest, the people would fight for their democratic rights, as they are doing now

- foreign countries would place trade embargoes on the nation and also cut tourist income to pressure the government

- intervention from the unspeakables would further weaken the government's grasp

- support for tyrannical leadership among government workers and army regulars would wane

- the tyrant's system would crumble from the inside

- the cult of Thaksin would become weak and he would be deposed internally

- the UN would oversee fresh multiparty elections

- the nation will have come through an important and historical lesson, hopefully never to be repeated as in politically more developed countries.

Just like it has in all the other Dictator and Communist countries... riiiiiiight!