Is escalating violence against protesters a tactical move by Thai govt?

[webfact]

TELL IT AS IT IS
Is escalating violence against protesters a tactical move by govt?
Pornpimol Kanchanalak
Special to The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The caretaker government has been losing ground, not to mention legitimacy. With one miscalculated move after another, it has become failed government dragging Thailand into a failed-state condition.

"Sinning is … a deviation from that rectitude which an act ought to have," said 13th-century theologian Thomas Aquinas. The rectitude of a government's acts lie in upholding the public interest, a significant part of which is to safeguard the wellbeing of the people and secure peace in society. On both counts, our government has failed. Young children, innocent bystanders and unarmed protesters who are exercising their right of free speech, have paid for that failure with their lives.

The government's rice pledge scheme has destroyed the market mechanism for this commodity. Thai rice has rapidly lost its global market share because of the government's intervention, and many farmers now find themselves worse off due to this quick-fix scheme. Nobel-winning economist Milton Friedman said a government had failed when its solution to a problem was as bad as the problem, or made the problem worse. If the world is looking for a grand example of such a failure of a government, it need look no further than Thailand.

The ridiculous beating of war drums by red-shirt leader Thida Tavornses, along with some utterly revolting hate speech by other leaders of the government's hired hands that bordered on sedition, have been met with absolute silence on the part of our caretaker administration. The proposed plan to divide the country along the political fault lines - to remove the North and Northeast from the control of central government - was a pronouncement of secession, an offence punishable in the highest degree. And once again, we witnessed a response of silence from the government. In fact, one Cabinet member, the Interior Minister, seemed to give the notion the government's seal of approval.

It is now clear that the government's days are numbered, even if it is holding steadfastly to the motto "those who are shameless get what they want".

The events of the last seven days indicate that the government is intentionally sanctioning escalating violence in order to enhance its leverage at the negotiating table.

It is said that the way in which events unfold on the battlefield can influence any future mediation. Maybe that's why we are hearing red-shirt war drums and witnessing bombings by anonymous militias on a daily basis. The threat by government supporters to attack independent organisations such as human rights groups and the courts if they do not come down in the government's favour can be perceived as a tactic to force groups on both sides of the political divide to the negotiating table.

So far, the PDRC's determined action in extending the political protests beyond a logical endpoint has rendered ineffectual the government's belligerent strategy to dictate the terms of conflict settlement. The political battle in Thailand is entering into a so-called "hurting stalemate", where both sides are hurting, which is at the height of the geometric asymptote curve, a function of time and intensity of a conflict. In most cases, the hurting stalemate is followed by a de-escalation of conflict or negotiation that might lead to a dispute settlement.

The cost of continued fighting and the willingness to make concessions are two determinants of what the final resolution will look like. The principles of Equifinality, where the same outcome can be derived from many predictors and factors, and Multifinality, where one factor can lead to many different outcomes, will apply in the sensitive process of domestic political settlement in our country at a time when senseless divisiveness has been allowed, and even endorsed, for several years now.

In the meantime, our caretaker leader appears to be going through the classic model of five stages of grief. First, she was in denial, refusing to acknowledge the reality of the failure of her administration. Then she went to anger, lashing out at her opposition, sometimes in tears, while her deputies tried to squash them with any means available to them. Now, she is in the third stage - signalling the "willingness" to have a dialogue, as the tactics of her team began to boomerang. That leaves two other stages left, namely depression, which she may already have entered, and finally acceptance. Many are hoping that she moves quickly to the fifth stage, before she takes the country into Ukrainian-style political turbulence.

In any negotiation, the parties to the conflict naturally must try their best to maximise their BATNA - the best alternative to negotiated agreement. However, if one party has a great BATNA, and the others is dreadful, it's not really negotiation. It's called trying to get a little something extra.

The government is not doing itself any favours by maximising its leverage and BATNA by escalating the threat and action of widespread armed violence by its supporters. By "framing" and demonising neutral independent organisations and judicial institutions, the government is throwing away the bargaining chip of legitimacy it thinks it has.

In the final analysis, the fact of winning a concession may prove to matter more than the substance of that concession. And it may not be who yields most, but who yields last, which determines a perceived winner. To the government, "face" may also prove to be an important a factor in the game of political gains. But one has to try to remember an important fact of life: one may not be able to save "face" and behind at the same time.


-- The Nation 2014-02-27

[Bkkbound]

desperate acts of despots are not uncommon, looks like the military and courts have outmanoeuvred the shins repeatedly.

As painful as it might be for a few hours as the Shins last throw of the dice, it will achieve nothing but confirm the negative legacy they have left them.

[HD 205]

desperate acts of despots are not uncommon, looks like the military and courts have outmanoeuvred the shins repeatedly.

As painful as it might be for a few hours as the Shins last throw of the dice, it will achieve nothing but confirm the negative legacy they have left them.

Bkk bound?

Please stay in your current location.

Our quota of stupid is already full

Its always a sign that shin lovers cannot face reality when they resort to personal abuse..

Face facts... Its over.

I know people will throw me in with the "shin loving crowd" here because I don't constantly go on about Dubai and Yinglucks clothes, however I'd like to just point out that I knew this was over for PTP as soon as it began, it was always ending in some form of coup, the only question there ever was for me is which type.

The first obvious clue was that Suthep wouldn't have the cajones to go out and do something like this unless he had some back door garauntees first.

[DeepInTheForest]

Well, now we know what Equifinality and Multifinality purportedly mean. Not sure where that gets us, though. As far as the stages of grief-- even Elizabeth Kubler-Ross disowned her neat theory as she was exiting this mortal coil.

Me, I'm hoping the Thai people can hold on through actions of extremists and find a middle where they can move forward from. The shootings-- especially of kids-- are the ultimate cowardice. Surely most Thais are reaching the point where they are weary of conflict.

Hoping with all my heart for a de-escalation.

[HD 205]

Escalating violence can only do damage to the caretaker government, what good does it do them?

[DirtFarmer]

I always get a chuckle out of the author of this piece taking the high road considering her own convictions in the past.. and she may be correct in assuming the position... that many here and from outside have already accepted... that a judicial coup is most likely the outcome...since that was the strategy (IMHO) from the start....halt and oppress... obstruct and harass... and buy the time needed to get all the "good people" on board...and then totally dismantle it from "the inside" one thing for sure... it is history repeating itself for the umpteenth time...and not much will change within the society until the knowledge base and education inadequacies are addressed...but they at least are in motion... unless the "good people" totally obstruct Internet usage and information Thailand will slowly but surely be able to take a more balanced path into the future..to do so will be slow painful process...and the generations coming up must learn and read... but it will become more transparent going forward... You can only hide in things in the dark for so long...

[Bluespunk]

'Is escalating violence against protesters a tactical move by govt?'

Probably not, but it wouldn't surprise me.

As to their more fascistic street army, the red guard, well they are quite capable of thinking violence and cowardly attacks are the only way to solve a situation like this. In fact for many it is the only solution.

[kikoman]

The Violence was stated by the PDRC, they are the only one that can gain from it!

Cheers

[Bluespunk]

The Violence was stated by the PDRC, they are the only one that can gain from it!

Cheers

Nonsense and you know it.

[ChrisY1]

Escalating violence can only do damage to the caretaker government, what good does it do them?

Probably not a great deal....but they do appear to condone it, their silence on the escalating violence is very noticeable...and apart from an almost one liner from YL...another tidbit from Surapong....there's been nothing....and more importantly, no arrests at all...

[chainarong]

As this PTP Administration has continually lied over the course of it's term in power and as lying seems the norm one cannot believe a word that is said, even if they denial any involvement , the boy who called wolf called to many times , no one believed him ,the PTP have a similar problem , I think the word is credibility.

[Yunla]

The rice pledging scam and the tragic deaths directly caused by it, are enough to hang PTP from the highest yardarm in the port.

If the true facts and figures of this scam somehow escaped the shredder, and come to light, Yingluck and others would be looking at jailtime under a serious legal system. This is my opinion, not statement of fact.

Then there's the other half-dozen charges I personally would expect to see PTP face, but they are now relatively minor really, the rice scam is the centrepiece of their downfall.

Agree with other posters that war-drums etc. is the desperation of a cornered animal. Trapped creatures always become suddenly ferocious.

[HD 205]

Escalating violence can only do damage to the caretaker government, what good does it do them?

Probably not a great deal....but they do appear to condone it, their silence on the escalating violence is very noticeable...and apart from an almost one liner from YL...another tidbit from Surapong....there's been nothing....and more importantly, no arrests at all...

I don't think they condone it in general tbh, maybe some of the more extremist UDD members do. There has been constant calls to end the violence by YL and PTP politicians.

There's been a few arrests but not enough.

It's a bit difficult when you have a police force and an army on different sides of the politicial coin. If this was a red protest, the army would've been in by now without a doubt.

[notmyself]

The Violence was stated by the PDRC, they are the only one that can gain from it!

Cheers

Nonsense and you know it.

100% agree.

It was figured that the police etc. should do nothing because when the red's come into town they try and burn the place down so that must be the norm. But the protesters didn't try to burn BKK down and just held rallies followed by lives bands of an evening with lots of good food available. Ouch, the government said! OK, let's install a state of emergency because that must surely get the matches out but it didn't. Ouch again!

[noitom]

This more preposterous Thai editorial tripe. The Thai press should be pounding the table for party nominations and elections. The Thai press looks like a joke following blundering protesters and their supporters before the world. The Thai press is blatantly supporting a sabotage of a popularly elected PM in favor of a "people's council" with 185 handpicked by its own insiders to the exclusion of ordinary Thais. Does the Thai press actually believe that this is the right thing to do? Does the Thai press actually believe that the international community will view this as anything but "propaganda?"

[ikke]

The Violence was stated by the PDRC, they are the only one that can gain from it!

Cheers

Nonsense and you know it.

NO, no nonsense , it is 100% PDRC who started, and the first aim was still ok , to overtrow the government and after that Suthep should have stepped down as he promised.

Elections should take place peaceful and the yellows should have tried to get the majority in a democratic way.

Then you could say they did not start, but the situation as is it now, facing a civil war is on Suthep his head.

[djjamie]

I am speaking today to the millions of forum members across the globe in these anxious violent days and asking them to be patient. The regime will fall as the iron curtain did many years ago.

Yes, not only does the regime condone the violence, not only does it not denounce the "beating of the war drum" meeting, but it had much to gain from it.

Obviously the PTP are frustrated that peaceful protestors are highlighting the failures of this abysmal government and just like the UDD forum member here that show their frustration by personal abuse of the opposition, the PTP show it by ensuring their militia arm, UDD, have carte blanche on violence and intimidation in Bangkok.

If I was a peaceful protestor with my wife and kids in Trat or Bangkok after the tragic weekend you know what I would do? I would stop going to protests. I would shut up shop and shut my mouth lest I be gunned down for having a belief. My only crime being the single fact that I believe something different than the other "team" believes in.

The majority have spoken. Time to accept the will of the majority even if you don't like it. Or will the UDD supporters "dismiss by numbers" this fact because it does not suit their agenda? I suspect so after reading some of their majority (43%), minority (63%) rule depending on what side of the political divide the results benefit.

Which gets me back to my opening sentence. The UDD supporters would appreciate that sentence. It is a propaganda style called "Argumentum ad Numerum" It maintains that the more people who are convinced about something, the more likely it is to be true, and the more people who do something, the more right it is. The latest visit to Chaing Rai exemplifies this tool they use to ensure "belief" is maintained in the facade that their "team" has the numbers thus is the best "team" around. The only "team" to chose. (One party state). Comments like 'She has the majority, just look at the reception she garners in Chaing Rai" as if Chaing Rai holds the majority. Then "Wait until she goes to Chaing Mai. that proves the majority love her" Illogical arguments presented by the same people that say 63% is a minority because it was how many didn't want the amnesty bill.

Cya guys and CHEERS

Edited February 27, 2014 by djjamie

[HD 205]

Bye.

[fab4]

The rice pledging scam and the tragic deaths directly caused by it, are enough to hang PTP from the highest yardarm in the port.

If the true facts and figures of this scam somehow escaped the shredder, and come to light, Yingluck and others would be looking at jailtime under a serious legal system. This is my opinion, not statement of fact.

Then there's the other half-dozen charges I personally would expect to see PTP face, but they are now relatively minor really, the rice scam is the centrepiece of their downfall.

Agree with other posters that war-drums etc. is the desperation of a cornered animal. Trapped creatures always become suddenly ferocious.

Tragic Deaths directly caused by the Rice Pledging Policy

Which deaths were these then, Yunla? I presume you can't mean the suicides of rice farmers, tragic as they are, as being a result of the Rice Subsidy scheme?

The Mental Health Department sent a team to investigate the causes of the suicides of 13 rice farmers during the past few weeks.

Department deputy director-general Dr Panpimol Wipulakorn said the investigation found that nine of them had committed suicide because they owed a large number of informal debts. Three committed suicide as they had been suffering from congenital diseases. The remaining farmer's suicide could not be linked to the rice-pledging scheme.

"We found that the main risk factors for committing suicide were mental-health problems, physical ailments and family problems. Economic problems caused by large informal debts was also a main factor leading them to commit suicide," Panpimol said.

The rice farmers who committed suicide were aged between 40 and 60. Most had complained of feeling depressed and frustrated. Some had harmed themselves or tried to commit suicide on previous occasions.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/webmobile/national/Rice-scheme-woes-not-major-factor-in-suicides-agen-30227201.html

[HD 205]

The rice pledging scam and the tragic deaths directly caused by it, are enough to hang PTP from the highest yardarm in the port.

If the true facts and figures of this scam somehow escaped the shredder, and come to light, Yingluck and others would be looking at jailtime under a serious legal system. This is my opinion, not statement of fact.

Then there's the other half-dozen charges I personally would expect to see PTP face, but they are now relatively minor really, the rice scam is the centrepiece of their downfall.

Agree with other posters that war-drums etc. is the desperation of a cornered animal. Trapped creatures always become suddenly ferocious.

Tragic Deaths directly caused by the Rice Pledging Policy

Which deaths were these then, Yunla? I presume you can't mean the suicides of rice farmers, tragic as they are, as being a result of the Rice Subsidy scheme?

The Mental Health Department sent a team to investigate the causes of the suicides of 13 rice farmers during the past few weeks.

Department deputy director-general Dr Panpimol Wipulakorn said the investigation found that nine of them had committed suicide because they owed a large number of informal debts. Three committed suicide as they had been suffering from congenital diseases. The remaining farmer's suicide could not be linked to the rice-pledging scheme.

"We found that the main risk factors for committing suicide were mental-health problems, physical ailments and family problems. Economic problems caused by large informal debts was also a main factor leading them to commit suicide," Panpimol said.

The rice farmers who committed suicide were aged between 40 and 60. Most had complained of feeling depressed and frustrated. Some had harmed themselves or tried to commit suicide on previous occasions.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/webmobile/national/Rice-scheme-woes-not-major-factor-in-suicides-agen-30227201.html

Unfortunately suicide is a daily occurance, with a whole myriad of factors that might be involved in the persons head.

To use it for political gain in any instance, is disgusting.

[Ulysses G.]

The shootings-- especially of kids-- are the ultimate cowardice.

[Yunla]

Tragic Deaths directly caused by the Rice Pledging Policy

Which deaths were these then, Yunla? I presume you can't mean the suicides of rice farmers, tragic as they are, as being a result of the Rice Subsidy scheme?

Thanks for the block-quote from the Institute, which I too have already seen.

I would say to you that this statement by that agency is speculative and also delivered against a background of statements by other agencies such as tourism, transport etc. which famously downplays the reality of those situations.

I think we can lay out a basic situational analysis of cause and effect. Regardless of your underlying mental/physical problems, to compound them with having your crops taken and not paid for, leaving you in absolute poverty and being threatened by loan sharks who you could have repaid if your produce had been paid for, it doesn't take a maths wizard to add up those sums.

I think it is very sad that people try to downplay the impact on poor farmers' lives that nonpayment for produce, loan-borrowing and absolute poverty has had, and the denial of the causal relationship to their tragic suicides is at best far-fetched, and at worst a cheap attempt at redirecting the blame onto the victims.

[craigt3365]

A rude post has been removed from view along with a few associated replies. Apologies to the members with the appropriate replies.

[LomSak27]

Escalating Violence is the onething that might bring on a Military Coup something the PC, Dems, Yellows and their media division The Nation Newspaper desperatly want.

As Always with The Nation you have to read between the lines.

Sorry Nation, you have earned the distrust of everything you print

[RJF]

The Violence was stated by the PDRC, they are the only one that can gain from it!

Cheers

Nonsense and you know it.

Nonsense?

I can and will not accuse anyone without having proof. I am considering the following though: the attacks seem to have been carried out by professionals that knew what they were doing. Professional and army issued munition is being used. Suthep is supported by ex-generals (e.g. Anupong) with strong army connections. We know and have seen there are weapons being used by unknown people supporting the PDRC (Laksi). As long as YL is still in power, the red shirts have little to gain from escalation as opposed to the PDRC. No one has been caught. A PDRC protest leader was arrested and then freed by a 'mysterious' group of men.

Again, this does not prove anything. But to assume that all violence comes from one side only seems highly unrealistic. I at least consider the fact that there are certain forces at work that have a clear agenda. If it were ONLY just angry redshirts, surely some would have been caught by now (if not by the incompetent govt or incompetent police, then surely by PDRC guards or by the public). This smells...and it does not smell pretty. Get out of your biased bubbles...both of you!

[phantomfiddler]

Escalating violence can only do damage to the caretaker government, what good does it do them?

With their mindset they think that they can intimidate the opposition. The redshirts have always been renowned for violence, thuggery, and hopefully it will get them nowhere, and also illustrate to the intelligent public what they really are like.

[HD 205]

Escalating violence can only do damage to the caretaker government, what good does it do them?

With their mindset they think that they can intimidate the opposition. The redshirts have always been renowned for violence, thuggery, and hopefully it will get them nowhere, and also illustrate to the intelligent public what they really are like.

No, I don't buy that.

If the red shirts were out to indimidate the opposition, they would be in BKK in droves!

[Ricardo]

Escalating violence can only do damage to the caretaker government, what good does it do them?

Revenge, for loss-of-face, recent or in-the-past ?

Intimidation of the 'enemy', as part of 'hanging on till the last gasp' ?

Or perhaps not on the direct-orders of the caretaker-government, certainly not on Yingluck's own orders, but from their guiding-hand ?

Who will ever know, except Chalerm as usual, and he'll refuse (as always) to name names !

[Centrum]

desperate acts of despots are not uncommon, looks like the military and courts have outmanoeuvred the shins repeatedly.

As painful as it might be for a few hours as the Shins last throw of the dice, it will achieve nothing but confirm the negative legacy they have left them.

Bkk bound?

Please stay in your current location.

Our quota of stupid is already full

perhaps you'd be willing to give up your place in the quota?

[fab4]

Tragic Deaths directly caused by the Rice Pledging Policy

Which deaths were these then, Yunla? I presume you can't mean the suicides of rice farmers, tragic as they are, as being a result of the Rice Subsidy scheme?

Thanks for the block-quote from the Institute, which I too have already seen.

I would say to you that this statement by that agency is speculative and also delivered against a background of statements by other agencies such as tourism, transport etc. which famously downplays the reality of those situations.

I think we can lay out a basic situational analysis of cause and effect. Regardless of your underlying mental/physical problems, to compound them with having your crops taken and not paid for, leaving you in absolute poverty and being threatened by loan sharks who you could have repaid if your produce had been paid for, it doesn't take a maths wizard to add up those sums.

I think it is very sad that people try to downplay the impact on poor farmers' lives that nonpayment for produce, loan-borrowing and absolute poverty has had, and the denial of the causal relationship to their tragic suicides is at best far-fetched, and at worst a cheap attempt at redirecting the blame onto the victims.

This has been done to death in the original thread that I quoted.

Will you at least agree that your assertion that the reported suicides of rice farmers in recent times are directly linked to the Rice Subsidy scheme is just, if not more so, as speculative as the report, that you state is speculative.

Bearing in mind that neither you, nor I, have seen the report, nor are we experts in mental health, I am leaning towards the Doctors experience of previous suicides amongst rice farmers statistical reports and their recent investigations and the correlation between the two.

Edited February 27, 2014 by fab4