Thailand's NSC fears civil strife if protesters take to the streets

[webfact]

POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS
NSC fears civil strife if protesters take to the streets
Jeerapong Prasertpolkrung,
Tanatpong Kongsai
The Nation



Paradorn expects tension to rise when court or NACC rules on Yingluck cases

BANGKOK: -- The National Security Council (NSC) is not confident that it will be able to fully control civil unrest when anti-government and pro-government demonstrators take to the streets.

"With so many people out on the streets, we don't have the confidence," NSC secretary general Paradorn Pattanatabut said yesterday.

However Paradorn insisted that security agencies would do their best. "We will closely monitor the situation and prevent any confrontation between the two sides," he said.

Tension is apparently rising as independent agencies are expected to deliver their rulings on some cases against caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra very soon.

"Key factors are the rulings from independent agencies," Paradorn said.

United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) chairman Jatuporn Promphan yesterday said there was clearly a conspiracy to oust the current government.

"After the Songkran celebrations, we will organise a massive rally to completely shut down the bureaucratic polity," he said.

He added that he would lead his supporters into Bangkok in the upcoming rally.

At press time last night, red shirts were gathering at Aksa Road, on the western fringe of Bangkok.

"Let's return home and celebrate Songkran first. But around April 18, we will have a really big rally," Jatuporn said.

Paradorn expected the tension to reach boiling point this month because the UDD felt any negative rulings could be unfair to Yingluck and supporters of the government.

Meanwhile, the anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) had signalled that it would stand by the independent agencies.

"If the government doesn't accept the scrutiny by independent agencies and the Constitutional Court, the PDRC will have to organise a really big move to protect the constitution," PDRC spokesman Akanat Promphan said.

"Such institutions, after all, are key pillars of the administrative system under the Constitution."

The PDRC, which leads the anti-government movement, has lately told its supporters that the country is in the final round of the battle.

One of the serious cases targeting Yingluck surrounds her decision to transfer Thawil Pliensri from the top job at the National Security Council in 2011.

The Supreme Administrative Court ruled that the transfer was unlawful and ordered that Thawil be reinstated.

According to a survey by Suan Dusit Poll, 69 per cent of respondents believe the country's political conflict is so serious it could trigger a civil war.

Asked how to prevent the civil strife, 48 per cent said the government and anti-government demonstrators should engage in peaceful talks and refrain from inciting violence.

Almost 39 per cent of respondents said the political conflict had been prolonged because politicians were trying to protect their interests.


-- The Nation 2014-04-07

[Tokay]

Reminds me of that old Road Runner and Coyote show, where they had the sheep dog and the coyote, they would be buddies until they checked into work, then they would be enemies and fight each other while the coyote tried to steal sheep from the dog, then the whistle would blow and they would check out again and be friends. Ralph and Sam I think were their names.

Only a cartoon can really explain Thailand. Perhaps that is why all of their recorded and live shows come complete with cartoon sound effects. Boing!

[Tokay]

Had to hop on youtube to find it.

110% shenanigans.

[NongKhaiKid]

Another warning to the NACC to tread carefully ?

[zydeco]

Seems like the NSC is one step from saying it's Every Man For Himself. This ought to do more wonders for Thai tourism numbers or that movie hub they're hawking in another thread this morning. Bangkok: Armed and Dangerous.

[FangFerang]

The NSC states they are not confident and then states they will prevent confrontations.

"Well, er, we are vastly outnumbered and outgunned but, um, we'll handle it."

And then the whopper "69% feel the events could trigger a civil war."

Hezoos K--righst I am glad I moved to the provinces.

[Tywais]

"Jatuporn Promphan yesterday said there was clearly a conspiracy to oust the current government."

He's a quick one isn't he. Been going on since what, November and he just noticed?

[chainarong]

Well its all coming home to roost , just what happens if Abhsist and Suthep are convicted and jailed on those murder charges, do you think the Democrats and the yellow shirts are going to sit and take it up the A!!se , at least they have more guts than one particular individual that resides in Dubai ,not with standing that, piece is along way away from home, in The Land of Smiles.

[Baerboxer]

Another warning to the NACC to tread carefully ?

Yep. Shin lackeys delivering a message. The Shins get caught with their fingers in the cookie jar, not for the first time, and break all sorts of laws and parliamentary procedures. They even swindle the poor farmers they ruthlessly pretend to serve.

When the usual lies and ignoring the questions doesn't work it back to the tried and tested intimidation through threats, law suits, and violence which is ratcheted up to suit.

To cover all this up they cry "coup, judicial coup, politically motivated, we're from election, we democratic, we can do want we like". They have indeed done just as they like up to now.

All smoke and mirrors to avoid actually having to defend anything, answer questions truthfully, or provide the actual facts and figures.

The Law according to the Shins - do as we say, not as we do. Don't dare question us or show dissent. We'll screw you and you better smile and like it. Classic family feudal dictatorship if they can get away with it.

[Baerboxer]

"Jatuporn Promphan yesterday said there was clearly a conspiracy to oust the current government."

He's a quick one isn't he. Been going on since what, November and he just noticed?

Do you think he might twig it's a "conspiracy" because of all the current caretaker government's lies, illegal acts, refusal to account to missing billions of baht, lack of payment to the poor farmers, and self enrichment? The cheating through parliament of controversial bills that would favour themselves in very undemocratic ways?

No - he'll probably think that's all a coincidence.

[Scamper]

What a contradiction in terms - the " National Security Council " headed by longtime Thaksin confidant Paradorn. And to provide further incongruity, what is Paradon saying as head of national security ? He's saying that they wouldn't be able to maintain it ! Yet again, like all Pheu Thai spokesman - regardless as to the position that their given - Paradorn is implying that the " wrong verdicts " will set off the UDD. Let's just take a minute and digest this. He's basically saying if you want to maintain " peace " forget about the processes of the law. Further incongruent to the optics is that Paradorn is the man whom Tawil replaced - the very case that could decide this whole affair. So for Paradorn to speak out at this juncture is just comical. If you really feel like laughing.

[Somtamnication]

What a contradiction in terms - the " National Security Council " headed by longtime Thaksin confidant Paradorn. And to provide further incongruity, what is Paradon saying as head of national security ? He's saying that they wouldn't be able to maintain it ! Yet again, like all Pheu Thai spokesman - regardless as to the position that their given - Paradorn is implying that the " wrong verdicts " will set off the UDD. Let's just take a minute and digest this. He's basically saying if you want to maintain " peace " forget about the processes of the law. Further incongruent to the optics is that Paradorn is the man whom Tawil replaced - the very case that could decide this whole affair. So for Paradorn to speak out at this juncture is just comical. If you really feel like laughing.

It is just a simple case of the wallet leading the wallet. Whoever you chose, yellow or red.

[AleG]

Well its all coming home to roost , just what happens if Abhsist and Suthep are convicted and jailed on those murder charges, do you think the Democrats and the yellow shirts are going to sit and take it up the A!!se , at least they have more guts than one particular individual that resides in Dubai ,not with standing that, piece is along way away from home, in The Land of Smiles.

just what happens if Abhsist and Suthep are convicted and jailed on those murder charges

I know what won't happen, their supporters won't start a civil war over it as the Red Shirts are threatening.

I'd like to see Jatuporn and his crew of mercenary incitators dropped buck nacked in Syria with "I Love al-Assad" tattoed in the back and "F*** al-Assad!" in the front. One week and then they can come back and talk about starting a civil war.

"Key factors are the rulings from independent agencies," Paradorn said.

Another key factor is a government that let their most rabid supporters injure and murder their opponents on the street with impunity, that sort of thing tends to escalate violence.

[Halion]

Clowns , idiots and brainless morons who try to deflect the rule of law by either declaring the action as politically motivated or conspiratorial which makes no dam difference to the action under law. Democracy is far more than they can appreciate within their programmed myopic thinking.

[WoopyDoo]

The NSC states they are not confident and then states they will prevent confrontations.

"Well, er, we are vastly outnumbered and outgunned but, um, we'll handle it."

And then the whopper "69% feel the events could trigger a civil war."

Hezoos K--righst I am glad I moved to the provinces.

I am in the northeast (Korat) and I know there will be lots of trouble here, it won't be just in BKK it will escalate.

My prediction is that this government will be toppled, I am sure everyone no matter their side of the fence will agree, it is almost 100% guarantee they will be removed.

We all know the reds are not going to like it and move into a violent offensive.

The PDRC will be sent home on orders from above to remove one of the red's targets, and forcing their efforts into attacking the independent agencies such as the courts, and also the government buildings. These won't be simple occupations of the public areas, this will be the entire public AND private areas and they will not just occupy, they will destroy.

This will bring the army into play, and there will likely be a repeat of 2010 and maybe even on a bigger scale. However, contrary to Jatuporn's rhetoric of staying and fighting to the death, the reds will likely run off back up north to regroup as soon as there are an amount of casualties.

They will then direct their attention to blocking all governance of the north (by BKK) by moving in on provincial offices and any state department buildings and likely raise then to the ground too. Because this is what stupid people do when they have no real plan.

Where I am from, there used to be many red shirts, and there still are a few, but the area has move from huge red majority to pretty much, 'we hate Thaksin' attitudes. I can see a lot of PDRC supporters (and don't get me wrong, there are thousands here) not standing for this behaiviour of reds burning our town and it's administrative centres.

They will likely rise up against these reds and that will be basically what you may interpret as a national escalation of the conflicts. Because I don't doubt this model will be repeated across many provinces and towns across the country where there is a division of political attitudes. Even in the PTP strongholds, the majority won't want to see the reds burning and looting. The reds are not popular even in these places. So confrontations will be common and widespread.

I can also imagine that movement between provinces and towns will be tricky as there will be multiple checkpoints both military and police and even red shirt rebel checkpoints popping up here and there and then disappearing.

You could say that there is a potential to turn the entire north and northeast into one big reflection of Yala.

What will ultimately happen is that the red shirts will turn this area into an unofficial Lanna, and may even attempt to install a Thaksin government there. It has already been threatened by the UDD and we all know that their main objective is and always has been a communistic style separate republic state under the rule of the Shinawatras.

They could hold that area indefinitely unless drastic moves are not made now to cut the head off the snake completely.

People will laugh at me and say my head is in the clouds, but I will challenge you again when it all starts unfolding.... The fight in BKK will be very short, but it will spread, these reds and UDD are separatist fanatics under the rule of an even bigger fanatic.

What they will end up with is mass starvation, extreme poverty and zero infrastructure because all trade will be blocked and they will have no money at all. The banks will all close down and their money will be worthless.

[SoilSpoil]

What a contradiction in terms - the " National Security Council " headed by longtime Thaksin confidant Paradorn. And to provide further incongruity, what is Paradon saying as head of national security ? He's saying that they wouldn't be able to maintain it ! Yet again, like all Pheu Thai spokesman - regardless as to the position that their given - Paradorn is implying that the " wrong verdicts " will set off the UDD. Let's just take a minute and digest this. He's basically saying if you want to maintain " peace " forget about the processes of the law. Further incongruent to the optics is that Paradorn is the man whom Tawil replaced - the very case that could decide this whole affair. So for Paradorn to speak out at this juncture is just comical. If you really feel like laughing.

It is just a simple case of the wallet leading the wallet. Whoever you chose, yellow or red.

Most Thai I know, and foreigners as well, have nothing with both Red or Yellow!

[Dogmatix]

Why is Paradorn still making vacuous pronouncements in favour of his Dear Leader and clone as secretary general of the NSC? He should be described as in an inactive post as advisor to the caretaker prime minister (who is currently in the departure lounge awaiting lift off).

[Choonpon]

The longer the political tension goes, the more $$$ flies away from Thailand.