World turns focus on Thailand, but real drama has only just begun

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
World turns focus on Thailand, but real drama has only just begun
Thanong Khanthong

BANGKOK: -- The Constitutional Court's removal of Yingluck Shinawatra as caretaker prime minister brought a number of international reactions. Most have been negative, reflecting foreign support of the status quo in Thai politics or a preference for business as usual.

Let's start with the view from Washington. The US State Department issued a statement saying that it had been "following closely" the developments after Yingluck's dismissal.

"We continue to urge all sides to resolve Thailand's political tensions in a peaceful and democratic manner so that the Thai people can choose political leadership they deserve," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.

"In keeping with Thailand's democratic ideals, a resolution should include elections and an elected government."

We are not sure whether the Thai Foreign Ministry - or any other Foreign Ministry in the world - has a policy of issuing a statement every time the US suffers an internal crisis, and also suggesting how Washington might resolve its domestic affairs.

Moody's, the credit-rating agency, followed suit by saying that the Court's decision against Yingluck would hit Thailand's financial health.

"The ruling is credit negative because it threatens to prolong the country's political crisis, which has lasted for six months, and makes a near-term compromise solution unlikely. It also heightens the risk of violent clashes between opponents and supporters of Yingluck's Pheu Thai Party. Both would negatively affect investor and consumer confidence and increase the downside risks to Thailand's growth outlook for 2014-15," the agency said in a report released yesterday.

In other words, if the Constitutional Court had handed down a verdict favourable to Yingluck, Thailand's status would be "credit positive". But is this true? The agency had been openly critical of several populist policies of the Yingluck government, warning that they might lead to negative credit outlook in the future. Hence, Moody's has now contradicted itself by supporting the political status quo and thereby implicitly opposing reform.

Credit Suisse also came up with a report responding to the court's ruling, which convicted Yingluck and nine Cabinet members for abuse of power over the National Security Council chief transfer case but left the rest of the Cabinet in place. The Pheu Thai Party named Niwatthumrong Boonsongpaisan, the acting Commerce Minister and former Shin Corp director, as interim prime minister in place of Yingluck.

" We consider the developments on the whole as negative for the market," said Credit Suisse. "On the positive side, we do not expect serious violence to result from the ruling. The pro-Thaksin red shirts are keeping their plans for a rally on Saturday, but they will convene in a distant suburb, where clashes with anti-government forces are unlikely. We suspect that the Reds will not take any provocative actions as long as the Pheu Thai Party remains at the head of the caretaker government.

"On the negative side, however, the court's decision prolongs the political uncertainty. Most in the market had anticipated that the court would convict the entire Cabinet and order the appointment of an unelected government, but the decision leaves Thailand with a caretaker government with limited powers and a relatively unknown figure as prime minister."

However, Credit Suisse believes that the fresh election, tentatively scheduled for July 20 by the government and the Election Commission, is unlikely to take place. More likely, it says, is the appointment of an interim government. If the advent of a new permanent government is delayed, value added tax would automatically have to be raised from 7 per cent to 10 per cent, as the budget for fiscal year 2014-2015 might not be passed in time.

Shifting our focus from the foreign views, let's go back to what might happen here next. Today, anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban will organise a "final" mass rally. His aim is to get millions of supporters out on the streets again. It remains to be seen what measures he has in store. But it is an open secret that Suthep will be moving to trigger the formation of an interim, unelected government to spearhead reforms that would sideline Pheu Thai.

Meanwhile the red shirts have been making aggressive moves in the background. The Constitutional Court's ruling has already been greeted with bomb and M79 grenade attacks.

We are heading into a period of high uncertainty.


-- The Nation 2014-05-09

[NongKhaiKid]

The world, if one actually exists outside of LoS, is focused on the country.

TAT officials must be wetting themselves with excitement. Now all they need to do is find ' the world ' on a map.

[virtualtraveller]

The verdict is bad news for Thailand, but who is to blame for the verdict, the accused or the courts. Were the courts only doing their jobs. Were the accused not at all guilty. This would suggest that political leaders should be shown leniency for the sake of stability. This is exactly the reason Thaksin survived the 2001 case. It set a dangerous precedent.

[stickyrice2000]

I agree. The court ruling is so ridiculous for removing a high rank person who is managing the country.

Edited May 9, 2014 by stickyrice2000

[Thaiisnotrequired]

The world, if one actually exists outside of LoS, is focused on the country.

TAT officials must be wetting themselves with excitement. Now all they need to do is find ' the world ' on a map.

Ha! You creased me up.

I can just imagine a gang of them, all with magnifying glass, walking around a big table with a huge map on it. All going over every name on the paper, asking, "Have you found it yet? Anybody found the world yet? Come on, where's the world?" ... 555

[ggt]

We are not sure whether the Thai Foreign Ministry - or any other Foreign Ministry in the world - has a policy of issuing a statement every time the US suffers an internal crisis, and also suggesting how Washington might resolve its domestic affairs.

When you consider yourself...to be the world's greatest military and financial center...then it follows...that you feel compelled to repeat the same mistakes over and over...spying...meddling...giving unwanted advice...and being a general pain in the butt...

[ginjag]

I agree. The court ruling is so ridiculous for removing a high rank person who is managing the country.

MISMANAGED is the operative word. Think before print.

[edgarfriendly]

Oho!!

There are OTHER countries???

'OUTside' Thailandworld??

who knew?!

[selftaopath]

,"Thai people can choose political leadership they deserve", They did to both.

[FangFerang]

You have inspired me. I sent YL and Suthep each a map of the world, but there were no directions so I am assuming the North Pole will be renamed the South Pole in LOS.

[davehowden]

"so that the Thai people can choose political leadership they deserve"

They already did that before didn't they?

Outside of Moody's and Credit Suisse; oh and of course Uncle Sam; the World has far more important things to be worrying about, but then few Thais would have any knowledge of those other "worries".

Edited May 9, 2014 by davehowden

[peterquixote]

Very funny. I think not without forethought the USA State department

quote

"We continue to urge all sides to resolve Thailand's political tensions in a peaceful and democratic manner

so that the Thai people can choose political leadership they deserve,

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said."

unquote

[fab4]

Did I imagine things or did I distinctly remember the usual suspects declaring to the forum that nobody outside of Thailand was taking any notice of the political situation in Thailand?

[marko kok prong]

Thai map of the world,Thailand in big letters,everything else blank "not Thailand' in small letters.

[ginjag]

Very funny. I think not without forethought the USA State department

quote

"We continue to urge all sides to resolve Thailand's political tensions in a peaceful and democratic manner

so that the Thai people can choose political leadership they deserve,

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said."

unquote

They did say this but didn't say early elections at all costs Before reforms.

Democratic manner in government terms are-----sorting out the laws to make it democratically sound, then have your open and above board elections. NORMAL

Now if our pro government posters want to twist and turn--writhe-to wangle a corrupt short cut, here lies the government problem---corrupt bad governance.

[Nickymaster]

Did I imagine things or did I distinctly remember the usual suspects declaring to the forum that nobody outside of Thailand was taking any notice of the political situation in Thailand?

Silly post. Taking notice and interfering is not the same. Many posters say that the outside world doesn't interfere (don't want to say things that could be used by either party to incite their followers) with Thailand's issues because they know it is complex and both groups have their rights and wrongs. You are purposely mixing those two in order to make a smart ass comment. Stop misleading posters here on TV.

Edited May 9, 2014 by Nickymaster

[h90]

The world, if one actually exists outside of LoS, is focused on the country.

TAT officials must be wetting themselves with excitement. Now all they need to do is find ' the world ' on a map.

Yes there is this Germany where the Mercedes come from and that Ameriga where that English language comes from, but I doubt there is much more outside Thailand and if than just uncivilized Barbarians.

Everyone must know that Thailand is the center of the world.

[unanimosity]

We are not sure whether the Thai Foreign Ministry - or any other Foreign Ministry in the world - has a policy of issuing a statement every time the US suffers an internal crisis, and also suggesting how Washington might resolve its domestic affairs.

When you consider yourself...to be the world's greatest military and financial center...then it follows...that you feel compelled to repeat the same mistakes over and over...spying...meddling...giving unwanted advice...and being a general pain in the butt...

More to the point, when Thailand begins paying financial aid to the USA equal to what they have received since 1960 they can comment all they want.

[unanimosity]

The world, if one actually exists outside of LoS, is focused on the country.

TAT officials must be wetting themselves with excitement. Now all they need to do is find ' the world ' on a map.

Yes there is this Germany where the Mercedes come from and that Ameriga where that English language comes from, but I doubt there is much more outside Thailand and if than just uncivilized Barbarians.

Everyone must know that Thailand is the center of the world.

Not the centre, mate, still working on becoming a hub.

[unanimosity]

Did I imagine things or did I distinctly remember the usual suspects declaring to the forum that nobody outside of Thailand was taking any notice of the political situation in Thailand?

Silly post. Taking notice and interfering is not the same. Many posters say that the outside world doesn't interfere (don't want to say things that could be used by either party to incite their followers) with Thailand's issues because they know it is complex and both groups have their rights and wrongs. You are purposely mixing those two in order to make a smart ass comment. Stop misleading posters here on TV.

Spoken like a true advocate of curtailed speech. He asks a question and you spin it to be misleading, whilst you are the one misleading by assigning your own inference to his question as though it were fact. Your comment doesn't even rise to smart a**, it is dumb a**.

[IMA_FARANG]

i hope political types don't really believe the United States gives a right F__K who is in power in Thailand.

having a lot more experience with the differences in what the U.S. says publically and does privately than most in my previous carrer, i can absolutely assure you that the only real concern the U.S. government has about what happens in Thailand and Thai politics is that it be kept

• peaceful
• quiet
• out of the way
• and not bother the U.S. business and it's allies

Those and that anything the Thais do is of no concern to the U.S. just as long it doesn't give political problems for the administration in power in Washington.

If the Thais think anything else concerns the American government, they are truely being nieve.

As an American with some experience in the real thoughts of U.S. politicians and what they say publicly I know very well that the U.S has allies, but not friends.

And when that ally causes problems for the U.S. government. it is ti,r to throe that ally to go away and be quiet.

Edited May 9, 2014 by IMA_FARANG

[Sydebolle]

So the spokeswoman of the American state department Jen Psaki did what she's paid for - she spoke. Proof once more again that those cornflake crunchers have not the slightest idea what is going on outside the United States of Ignorants.
Let the Thais take care of Thailand - it will be a fiasco but maybe that is what it needs to put this country onto the world map of the 21st century. Let the Americans look after their own pile of problems; there are plenty unsolved problems for decades but yep, it is always easy to unite the domestic fighters in the kindergarten by projecting an outside enemy (see Khao Phra Viharn).

As non-Thais we've learnt that we can formulate our own opinion which is - in the best interest of all - kept to themselves. Wonder what the Americans would say if Surapong would query Obama's two-digit million xmas vacation

[CWMcMurray]

Actually taking a look at some US news websites and doesn't seem like many even noticed or care about this issue ...

Top 24 headlines on the Fox News "world section" no mention of Thailand or this story at all...

Went to CNN international... 30 top stories... Again no headline about this or anything on Thailand...

So wouldn't really worry about how this is being covered by the overseas media...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Edited May 9, 2014 by CWMcMurray

[Nickymaster]

Did I imagine things or did I distinctly remember the usual suspects declaring to the forum that nobody outside of Thailand was taking any notice of the political situation in Thailand?

Silly post. Taking notice and interfering is not the same. Many posters say that the outside world doesn't interfere (don't want to say things that could be used by either party to incite their followers) with Thailand's issues because they know it is complex and both groups have their rights and wrongs. You are purposely mixing those two in order to make a smart ass comment. Stop misleading posters here on TV.

Spoken like a true advocate of curtailed speech. He asks a question and you spin it to be misleading, whilst you are the one misleading by assigning your own inference to his question as though it were fact. Your comment doesn't even rise to smart a**, it is dumb a**.

I suggest you better refrain from making silly comments too because you might be seen as an a** kisser.

[wandasloan]

Outside of Moody's and Credit Suisse; oh and of course Uncle Sam; the World has far more important things to be worrying about, but then few Thais would have any knowledge of those other "worries".

Outside of Moody's and Credit Suisse; oh and of course Uncle Sam and the United Nations and Canada; the World has far more important things to be worrying about, but then few Thais would have any knowledge of those other "worries".

More to come, for certain, but you might want to correct your post in the meantime. Just my personal opinion, but a country and any serious political movement that does NOT know about the single most important part of its economy would be even dumber to ignore it. See how an insular Thailand exists with no one buying Thai pickups and Thai frozen chicken and Thai World Cup gear for a while, Khun Dave. I'm pretty sure that MANY Thais have quite a bit of knowledge about that.

.

[than]

Very amazing to see that only financial institute not happy with court ruling.....

[gemini81]

Headline is misleading. Really, the world doesn't care. Likely many still think it is Siam, never heard of it, or confuse it with Taiwan. All the silliness that goes on is why it is probably forgotten on the world stage, in terms of politics, influence, power innovation etc. For girls and beaches, ok!

[Just1Voice]

The "world" doesn't give 2 cents about what's happening in this 3rd World, banana republic country.

[Jonmarleesco]

'... Moody's has now contradicted itself by supporting the political status quo and thereby implicitly opposing reform ...'

Recalling that it was the credit ratings agencies' assessments that were a contributory factor in the 2008 financial crisis, Moody's hardly represents a paradigm of opinionated excellence.

[BillyBobThai]

I agree. The court ruling is so ridiculous for removing a high rank person who is managing the country.

I think you wanted to say, miss-managing the country.