Coup generates confidence, sparks a rally on stock market and stabilises baht

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ONE MONTH LATER
Coup generates confidence, sparks a rally on stock market and stabilises baht
Business Desk
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Consumers and investors have regained their confidence and banks are seeing a rise in demand for loans just one month after a coup saw the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) swiftly end the political conflict that had engulfed the country since late last year, officials said.

The tourism industry, however, is still reeling from a plunge in visitors to the "Land of the Smile", they said.

Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said the political uncertainty that began late last year had hit the financial market hard. Inflows of foreign funds fell compared to other countries in the region, which weakened the baht, she said.

Domestic investors, however, were quick to regain confidence after last month's coup, with the turnaround beginning earlier this month, she said. Once they started showing confidence, foreign investors began following suit, Roong added.

Following months of decline against the US dollar, the baht has stabalised, rising slightly over the last month. As of Friday it was trading at 32.46 to the dollar compared to 32.54 on May 20.

Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) president Kesara Manchusree said post-coup confidence had also sparked a rally on the market.

The SET Index is up 4.5 per cent, or 64.37 points, since the day before the coup. It closed at 1,467.29 on Friday compared to 1,402.92 on May 21.

Bank executives say they are also seeing a rebound in demand for loans from small and medium-sized enterprises.

Major corporations, however, are still a bit shy. They are reviewing investment plans that were shelved during months of political turmoil, which only ended after a military takeover on May 22.

Banking executives say it could still take some time before major corporations resume investing.

Prior to the coup, the banking sector cut its loan-growth target as demand for credit slowed across all sectors.

The property sector is also showing some signs of revival, following a dismal first quarter. The number of new projects launched in the January to March period plunged about 40 per cent from the same period last year. Since the coup, however, there has been a rise in the number of new residential projects launched, and sales of homes are picking up, industry executives say. Demand for new residents is up 10 per cent so far this month, according to Pruksa Real Estate.

Its CEO and president, Thongma Vijitpongpun, pointed to swift action by the coup leaders for the sector's apparent revival.

"The NCPO is solving all of our problems faster than we expected," he said. "This is boosting confidence and the market is rebounding quickly."

-- The Nation 2014-06-23

[Dr Bruce]

Under the new censorship laws, expect more great news about how the Junta is making things better. Pity my company has changed all meeting from Bangkok to HCMC.

[The stuttering parrot]

Wow according to all these news headlines it's full steam ahead for Thailand !

Just a note to the spin doctors who are churning out all these positive headlines.

Get your PR department on the same page because in this article you have the tourist industry reeling from a plunge in tourists and not half hour before this you spun the headlines that the tourism trade has significantly recovered after the lifting of the curfew.

So which one are we to believe ?

[NeilSA1]

Wow according to all these news headlines it's full steam ahead for Thailand !

Just a note to the spin doctors who are churning out all these positive headlines.

Get your PR department on the same page because in this article you have the tourist industry reeling from a plunge in tourists and not half hour before this you spun the headlines that the tourism trade has significantly recovered after the lifting of the curfew.

So which one are we to believe ?

it's full steam ahead for Thailand

[SABloke]

Under the new censorship laws, expect more great news about how the Junta is making things better. Pity my company has changed all meeting from Bangkok to HCMC.

Come up with original thoughts much? I do give you credit for changing your word order, however.

[kmj]

Arse lickers ahoy 55555, just got 55 baht to gbp best in 4 years, may the baht continue its stabilisation

Edited June 23, 2014 by kmj

[tonbridgebrit]

[Chris Lawrence]

Wow according to all these news headlines it's full steam ahead for Thailand !

Just a note to the spin doctors who are churning out all these positive headlines.

Get your PR department on the same page because in this article you have the tourist industry reeling from a plunge in tourists and not half hour before this you spun the headlines that the tourism trade has significantly recovered after the lifting of the curfew.

So which one are we to believe ?

Great reporting from the Nation Left hand right hand problem?

[Thanet]

Under the new censorship laws, expect more great news about how the Junta is making things better. Pity my company has changed all meeting from Bangkok to HCMC.

Right - having caused the problem by showing utter contempt for democratic elections, the Junta is congratulating itself for fixing it.

[than]

With peace and stability, Country can only go forward.................

Good job General

[HUAHIN62]

It feels so good ............................ the song says. If they continue this way there would be no problems left in the country after a year, the economic growth rate would be 10%, export will surge with 50%, the tourist number will double, there will be no scams, thieves, human trafficers and fraudsters left, all the policemen, politicians, business people and civil servants will become honest, pollution will be wiped out, death by gunshots will be less than 100, prostitutes will go and work in dunking donuts, Thai's will adhere to traffic rules, Bangkok will have no more traffic jams, the education system will be of world standard, landless people will get land and TV members will have nothing to write about. @#%$ how boring will that be.

[Oziex1]

It feels so good ............................ the song says. If they continue this way there would be no problems left in the country after a year, the economic growth rate would be 10%, export will surge with 50%, the tourist number will double, there will be no scams, thieves, human trafficers and fraudsters left, all the policemen, politicians, business people and civil servants will become honest, pollution will be wiped out, death by gunshots will be less than 100, prostitutes will go and work in dunking donuts, Thai's will adhere to traffic rules, Bangkok will have no more traffic jams, the education system will be of world standard, landless people will get land and TV members will have nothing to write about. @#%$ how boring will that be.

TV posters will demand a return to the good old days and then say TIT nothing will ever change.

[Darcula]

Does this mean a war with the Khmers is not needed for the time being?

[HUAHIN62]

It feels so good ............................ the song says. If they continue this way there would be no problems left in the country after a year, the economic growth rate would be 10%, export will surge with 50%, the tourist number will double, there will be no scams, thieves, human trafficers and fraudsters left, all the policemen, politicians, business people and civil servants will become honest, pollution will be wiped out, death by gunshots will be less than 100, prostitutes will go and work in dunking donuts, Thai's will adhere to traffic rules, Bangkok will have no more traffic jams, the education system will be of world standard, landless people will get land and TV members will have nothing to write about. @#%$ how boring will that be.

TV posters will demand a return to the good old days and then say TIT nothing will ever change.

555 right on the money

[Nickymaster]

Wow according to all these news headlines it's full steam ahead for Thailand !

Just a note to the spin doctors who are churning out all these positive headlines.

Get your PR department on the same page because in this article you have the tourist industry reeling from a plunge in tourists and not half hour before this you spun the headlines that the tourism trade has significantly recovered after the lifting of the curfew.

So which one are we to believe ?

It must hurt to see Thailand moving forward. Thai people haven't been this positive towards their future for over a decade.

Move on parrot. Just accept that there is hope now.

[pmugghc]

Recall just after the takeover some TVF members predicted the baht would fall to 37 vs the $. Didn't quite happen that way.

[Fat Haggis]

The Baht has been sitting between 32-33 for a couple of months, I track it daily on my "motivator" chart, as I get paid in USD, and I was hoping it would hit 35-36 as it would have made me more money, but it's remained quite steady, I believe it's been sitting between 32-34 for the past 3-4 months.

So to claim that the Coup has stabilised the Baht, isn't quite accurate.

[PhilipCook]

Baht was fine and hasn't stabilized due to the Army takeover.

[Thai at Heart]

The Baht has been sitting between 32-33 for a couple of months, I track it daily on my "motivator" chart, as I get paid in USD, and I was hoping it would hit 35-36 as it would have made me more money, but it's remained quite steady, I believe it's been sitting between 32-34 for the past 3-4 months.

So to claim that the Coup has stabilised the Baht, isn't quite accurate.

Everyone was moaning that apparently by devaluing it from 28, some miraculous explosion of exports would also happen.

Maybe the junta can make that happen also.

[Mr Yim]

In the history of the world, I doubt there has ever been such a massive transformation of a countries fortune in such a short time. Makes you wonder why more countries dont do away with the democratic process and let the military run the show.

[billd766]

The Baht has been sitting between 32-33 for a couple of months, I track it daily on my "motivator" chart, as I get paid in USD, and I was hoping it would hit 35-36 as it would have made me more money, but it's remained quite steady, I believe it's been sitting between 32-34 for the past 3-4 months.

So to claim that the Coup has stabilised the Baht, isn't quite accurate.

I have been tracking the GBP/THB for nearly 15 years now and so far this year the baht has bottomed at 53 and peaked at just over 55.

Here are 3 graphs of 5 year trends going back to 2000.

Look at some of the early figures and weep.

5 year trend 2000 to 2004 v01.xls

5 year trend 2005 to 2009 v01.xls

5 year trend 2010 to 2014 v01.xls

[Fat Haggis]

Great graphs, are they from a website or personal?
According to those graphs though for 2014, the Baht/Sterling hasn't seen much of a change, which would also be in line with what I've noticed with the USD/Baht in 2014, so stating the coup stabalised it is just jingoism really.

Last year the USD/Sterling the pound was quite weak, it's now quite strong it went as low as 1.4 last year and is now sitting at 1.7 great if you're a tourist converting Sterling to USD, not so great if you're salaried in USD and converting it into Sterling

[billd766]

Great graphs, are they from a website or personal?

According to those graphs though for 2014, the Baht/Sterling hasn't seen much of a change, which would also be in line with what I've noticed with the USD/Baht in 2014, so stating the coup stabalised it is just jingoism really.

Last year the USD/Sterling the pound was quite weak, it's now quite strong it went as low as 1.4 last year and is now sitting at 1.7 great if you're a tourist converting Sterling to USD, not so great if you're salaried in USD and converting it into Sterling

They are personal from my KBank as every day I log in to check the exchange rates first thing and again at lunchtime. Sometimes they change 2 or 3 times a day.

I also look at this one which gives the rates for all thai banks. They don't change at the weekend or public holidays but the XE currency converter covers those.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/

[Fat Haggis]

Yeah I'm with K-Bank too and the baht was moving 2-3 points yesterday.

Thanks for the info.appreciated

[billd766]

Yeah I'm with K-Bank too and the baht was moving 2-3 points yesterday.

Thanks for the info.appreciated

No problem.

[trogers]

In the history of the world, I doubt there has ever been such a massive transformation of a countries fortune in such a short time. Makes you wonder why more countries dont do away with the democratic process and let the military run the show.

Not many countries have a large population willing to sell their votes and got opportunists into power to plunder their country.

[metisdead]

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