The NCPO finally decides to take on the South and its insurgency problems

[webfact]

The NCPO finally decides to take on the South and its insurgency problems
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- POLITICIANS and academics oppose the idea of total military control in the troubled South - but they do support a more active role for the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre (SBPAC) and civil groups.

A peace dialogue is to be worked out with Malaysia as a facilitator but there will be no talks about a self-administrating zone.

The military's power seizure from the elected government has so far underplayed southern issues like these.

Only last week did its ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) finally announce that it would focus on work related to tackling unrest in the South.

By comparison, the 2006 military coup cited southern unrest as among the key reasons it had rolled out the troops.

The NCPO's strategy was planned in two parts: An administration structure, and changes related to a peace dialogue with separatists.

The new proposed structure is on three levels.

The top involves NCPO chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha designating policies and guidelines, with the National Security Council (NSC) serving as adviser.

Policy implementation involves a working team, chaired by a deputy Army chief, to coordinate unrest-solving between agencies, especially the Internal Security Opera-tions Command (Isoc) and the SBPAC.

The operational level would have the Isoc Region 4's Forward Command as its primary responsible agency to propel national security and development works. SBPAC would become a front command under ISOC Region 4's Forward Command.

The peace dialogue would see adjustments to the negotiating team and regulations issued to ensure continuity. There will be no discussion about a self-administrating zone.

The changes are different from the Democrat Party-led strategy that had Isoc controlling the national security and SBPAC the development and justice works. Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said the new structure emphasised national security, although it should operate along with development works and that it remained unclear about SBPAC's position in the new structure.

Political scientist Ekkarin Tuansiri, from Prince of Songkla University Pattani Campus, said the new structure bestowed most power on national security, which may not be good for development work in the long run.

He urged local people's participation, as leaving too much work in the Army's hands might yield less trust.

Yala Rajabhat University academic Tayudin Ausman urged the NCPO to allow locals with good potential to have more say in problem solving.

"We don't see civil-society participation in the new structure. These people should be participating, as they [are most familiar] with the issue."

Dalyal Abdulloh from the youth group Dream South urged the dialogue to table issues concerning local people.

"The talks between Thailand and the separatists should not overlook the people [in between]," he said, urging that the talks involve all stakeholders.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/The-NCPO-finally-decides-to-take-on-the-South-and--30237123.html


-- The Nation 2014-06-26

[attento]

Cross-border discussions and agreement on a plan for the way ahead will be the only way this problem can be resolved. The population living on either side of the border must be invited to contribute. Increase investment in the south, increase employment opportunities and raise the living standards. It's is a "hearts and minds" situation. A fresh (non-military) approach by the NCPO may just be able to do it.

[Hawk]

"Finally"? So what has the army being doing in the south all these year then?

Are the Americans "finally" going to stop giving monetary aid to the army's suppression of the so called southern terrorists. Have the Americans "finally" realized that the army has simply been squeezing the money lemon all this time with no intention of reaching a solution down there.

[chotthee]

NCPO and Prayuth has no choice. To return happiness to the Thai people, total control in the south is needed. Else this Islamic people (the bad ones) keep bombing the Buddhist people on a daily basis. Even Monks and school teachers have been targeted. Although children are not know to be targeted, they have been victims in many occurrences.

The army is also short of funds. More funds is needed. Also more airship will also help in he surveillance of Islamic people (the bad ones).

Don't get me wrong. Most Islamic people are good. There are also some bad Buddhist people, but they are usually in the Red territories of North & North East.

[The stuttering parrot]

Well I see some people can't help themselves by bringing the north and North East into a problem of insurgency in the south which has no bearing on red shirts at all!

Anyway they have tried talks in the past and on paper it looked fruitful but once again failed.

These extremists are fanatics and there is just no negotiating with this murderous lot and that has been proving time and time again.

So only brute force is the answer and even then it's going to be hard to stop all these random bombings and shootings!

[fab4]

I thought Thawil was the answer?

[Nickymaster]

I thought Thawil was the answer?

I thought Chalerm was the answer?

The new centre would operate to the same standards as that of the US Pentagon, and the centre should be called Pentagon II, he said.

Mr Chalerm said he believed Pentagon II would improve efficiency in the government’s fight against the southern insurgency just as the Pentagon worked successfully to hunt down Osama bin Laden.

http://asiancorrespondent.com/86890/tongue-thaied-part-xvi-chalerm-and-the-new-pentagon/

[triffid]

When you have a separatist movement in a part of a country which has its own ethnic, linguistic, religious and historic identity I think there are just three options. 1) Let them go their own way; 2) Use unlimited force in an attempt to break their will; 3) Give them a good measure of autonomy politically and linguistically. The first option will never come voluntarily. Option 2) is not feasible in today's world - and attempts at it will at some point drive the separatists to mount a bombing campaign in the rest of Thailand (à la IRA in London/Birmingham....) Option 3) is the only viable one. It might succeed or it might not but it's sensible to try it. Will the Thai authorities be sensible? Unlikely, but one hopes that in time they will. (This option married to economic uplift has often succeeded in other places, for example the Basques in Spain.)

So far the thais have been trying a diluted option 2); and the contrary of 3) - which is why the insurgents attack teachers and monks in an attempt to slow or check official suppression of their malay language and history in their children.

[ALLSEEINGEYE]

Well I see some people can't help themselves by bringing the north and North East into a problem of insurgency in the south which has no bearing on red shirts at all!

Anyway they have tried talks in the past and on paper it looked fruitful but once again failed.

These extremists are fanatics and there is just no negotiating with this murderous lot and that has been proving time and time again.

So only brute force is the answer and even then it's going to be hard to stop all these random bombings and shootings!

So just to clarify, you are suggesting brute force against the Muslim terrorists that detonate bombs but not your beloved red shirt terrorists that do the same? Or do you recommend brute force against the reds as well? Just want to understand where you stand on dealing with anyone that bombs innocent civilians. Please clarify.

FYI, i don't care if they are from the south or north, if they wear a red, yellow or no shirt at all. If you kill innocent civilians then YES, you are a terrorist and you should be dealt with with extreme prejudice and the full force of the law.

[Pattszero]

Falsely constructed arguments always have a way of making it to the top of the pile. Anyone assuming that the majority of Muslims in the South want any form of separation from Thailand should think again. The comparison with the IRA is a handy one. They don't talk for the majority of Catholics in Northern Ireland. A recent poll had it that in the event of a separation referendum in Northern Ireland, the majority of Catholics would vote to stay in the UK.

That is a fact so staggering to many that they have to disbelieve it. They have to as they have allowed themselves to fall for a lie for so long.

The zealots and the terrorists are always in the minority.

One reason why the Catholics of Northern Ireland are more content to stay with the UK is that many of the discriminatory practices that brought about the Troubles have been stamped out. When you remove a genuine grievance then attitudes change quickly.

The answer in the South is to appeal to the silent majority. Have a good look at the genuine grievances which can be solved. Point out the disadvantages of unifying with Malaysia, of which there are plenty. Malaysia itself is becoming far more secular, as the young turn away from all religions. 58% of Malaysians were born into Moslem families. It does not follow that they are all Moslem, a fact that escapes most people.

The real answer to the Southern conundrum is to go ahead and build the canal. The economic boom that would follow would undermine the terrorists. The improvement in living conditions and opportunities in Northerm Ireland tied the Irish population closer to the UK. The same thing will happen in the South.

[northernjohn]

I totally agree with this

Political scientist Ekkarin Tuansiri, from Prince of Songkla University Pattani Campus, said the new structure bestowed most power on national security, which may not be good for development work in the long run.

He urged local people's participation, as leaving too much work in the Army's hands might yield less trust.

I have said right from the start that the answer is in winning the peoples trust. The Army can not protect against drive by shootings and vehicles with bombs in them being placed in public places also road side bombs. They have a long history of proving they can not do it. They have even had their basses invaded and weapons stolen out of them.

The phony peace talks that the PTP entered into were a farce. They were negotiating with a bunch of burned out terrorists who had pretty well died out. They did nothing to negotiate peace with the many groups still operating.

[billd766]

"Finally"? So what has the army being doing in the south all these year then?

Are the Americans "finally" going to stop giving monetary aid to the army's suppression of the so called southern terrorists. Have the Americans "finally" realized that the army has simply been squeezing the money lemon all this time with no intention of reaching a solution down there.

The Army has been listening to the various governments over the years but it was a one way conversation as no government ever listened back.

The PTP never listened to anybody because they had the ultimate fount of all knowledge, Thaksin Shinawatra.

[northernjohn]

Falsely constructed arguments always have a way of making it to the top of the pile. Anyone assuming that the majority of Muslims in the South want any form of separation from Thailand should think again. The comparison with the IRA is a handy one. They don't talk for the majority of Catholics in Northern Ireland. A recent poll had it that in the event of a separation referendum in Northern Ireland, the majority of Catholics would vote to stay in the UK.

That is a fact so staggering to many that they have to disbelieve it. They have to as they have allowed themselves to fall for a lie for so long.

The zealots and the terrorists are always in the minority.

One reason why the Catholics of Northern Ireland are more content to stay with the UK is that many of the discriminatory practices that brought about the Troubles have been stamped out. When you remove a genuine grievance then attitudes change quickly.

The answer in the South is to appeal to the silent majority. Have a good look at the genuine grievances which can be solved. Point out the disadvantages of unifying with Malaysia, of which there are plenty. Malaysia itself is becoming far more secular, as the young turn away from all religions. 58% of Malaysians were born into Moslem families. It does not follow that they are all Moslem, a fact that escapes most people.

The real answer to the Southern conundrum is to go ahead and build the canal. The economic boom that would follow would undermine the terrorists. The improvement in living conditions and opportunities in Northerm Ireland tied the Irish population closer to the UK. The same thing will happen in the South.

I am under the understanding that Malaysia does not want them.

[fab4]

I thought Thawil was the answer?

I thought Chalerm was the answer?

The new centre would operate to the same standards as that of the US Pentagon, and the centre should be called Pentagon II, he said.

Mr Chalerm said he believed Pentagon II would improve efficiency in the government’s fight against the southern insurgency just as the Pentagon worked successfully to hunt down Osama bin Laden.

http://asiancorrespondent.com/86890/tongue-thaied-part-xvi-chalerm-and-the-new-pentagon/

Chalerm wasn't good enough obviously, whereas Thawil's reinstatement was so important the Courts decided that the Caretaker PM should be ousted over it. It can't be more important than that - by the way what did happen to the NSC?

On the Thai state's side of the divide, the May 22 coup and swift purge of senior officials most closely associated with the talks initiated by former prime minister Yingkluck Shinawatra's administration drove the final nails into the coffin of a process already crippled by political changes at the top of the National Security Council (NSC), the point agency for the talks which began in February last year.

But with hardliners skeptical of last year's initiative now firmly in the saddle on both sides of the conflict, the demise of the so-called "KL process" and the recent army putsch seem more likely to exacerbate than dampen the violence.

As one foreign analyst with many years experience in the region reflected: "It's worth speculating that this may not be moving in a positive direction at all."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-100614.html

[Nickymaster]

I thought Thawil was the answer?

I thought Chalerm was the answer?

The new centre would operate to the same standards as that of the US Pentagon, and the centre should be called Pentagon II, he said.

Mr Chalerm said he believed Pentagon II would improve efficiency in the government’s fight against the southern insurgency just as the Pentagon worked successfully to hunt down Osama bin Laden.

http://asiancorrespondent.com/86890/tongue-thaied-part-xvi-chalerm-and-the-new-pentagon/

Chalerm wasn't good enough obviously, whereas Thawil's reinstatement was so important the Courts decided that the Caretaker PM should be ousted over it. It can't be more important than that - by the way what did happen to the NSC?

On the Thai state's side of the divide, the May 22 coup and swift purge of senior officials most closely associated with the talks initiated by former prime minister Yingkluck Shinawatra's administration drove the final nails into the coffin of a process already crippled by political changes at the top of the National Security Council (NSC), the point agency for the talks which began in February last year.

But with hardliners skeptical of last year's initiative now firmly in the saddle on both sides of the conflict, the demise of the so-called "KL process" and the recent army putsch seem more likely to exacerbate than dampen the violence.

As one foreign analyst with many years experience in the region reflected: "It's worth speculating that this may not be moving in a positive direction at all."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-100614.html

Chalerm wasn't good enough obviously, whereas Thawil's reinstatement was so important the Courts decided that the Caretaker PM should be ousted over it. It can't be more important than that - by the way what did happen to the NSC?

What a silly comment. What is your point? Yingluck was ousted because she replaced Thawil with a family member. I think you call that nepotism. And that is is. Not because Thawil was better cleaning up the mess in the South.

Really, please stop mixing stories and telling half lies in order to mislead posters. Sometimes you should just give up. You are really making a mess out of many threads.

[notmyself]

When you have a separatist movement in a part of a country which has its own ethnic, linguistic, religious and historic identity I think there are just three options. 1) Let them go their own way; 2) Use unlimited force in an attempt to break their will; 3) Give them a good measure of autonomy politically and linguistically. The first option will never come voluntarily. Option 2) is not feasible in today's world - and attempts at it will at some point drive the separatists to mount a bombing campaign in the rest of Thailand (à la IRA in London/Birmingham....) Option 3) is the only viable one. It might succeed or it might not but it's sensible to try it. Will the Thai authorities be sensible? Unlikely, but one hopes that in time they will. (This option married to economic uplift has often succeeded in other places, for example the Basques in Spain.)

So far the thais have been trying a diluted option 2); and the contrary of 3) - which is why the insurgents attack teachers and monks in an attempt to slow or check official suppression of their malay language and history in their children.

Option 3 would result in what we see in the federally administered tribal area of northern Pakistan. Despite the mass slaughter over many years, Thailand has done pretty will to not be enveloped to a much greater degree. There are 2 things which could solve the issue which are the empowerment of women and the education of children. Both of these are bitterly opposed in the south so good luck army.

which is why the insurgents attack teachers and monks in an attempt to slow or check official suppression of their malay language and history in their children.

Don't give up your day job whatever you do!

[Pattszero]

Falsely constructed arguments always have a way of making it to the top of the pile. Anyone assuming that the majority of Muslims in the South want any form of separation from Thailand should think again. The comparison with the IRA is a handy one. They don't talk for the majority of Catholics in Northern Ireland. A recent poll had it that in the event of a separation referendum in Northern Ireland, the majority of Catholics would vote to stay in the UK.

That is a fact so staggering to many that they have to disbelieve it. They have to as they have allowed themselves to fall for a lie for so long.

The zealots and the terrorists are always in the minority.

One reason why the Catholics of Northern Ireland are more content to stay with the UK is that many of the discriminatory practices that brought about the Troubles have been stamped out. When you remove a genuine grievance then attitudes change quickly.

The answer in the South is to appeal to the silent majority. Have a good look at the genuine grievances which can be solved. Point out the disadvantages of unifying with Malaysia, of which there are plenty. Malaysia itself is becoming far more secular, as the young turn away from all religions. 58% of Malaysians were born into Moslem families. It does not follow that they are all Moslem, a fact that escapes most people.

The real answer to the Southern conundrum is to go ahead and build the canal. The economic boom that would follow would undermine the terrorists. The improvement in living conditions and opportunities in Northerm Ireland tied the Irish population closer to the UK. The same thing will happen in the South.

I am under the understanding that Malaysia does not want them.

I don't have any particular knowledge of Malaysian government policy on the matter - however an Malaysian Muslims I have spoken to have disavowed themselves.

The Malaysians are not daft - the 42% non-Muslims would be appalled at the concept of drawing in this problematic Southern constituency. The Sarawakians just wouldn't accept it, they are already sick of Islamic expansionism. I lay you short odds you wouldn't get a majority of the Malaysian Muslim population to vote to take them in.

That's due to the fact that as I mentioned that as I mentioned the country is becoming increasingly secular. The secularization is directly linked to access to information and increase in wealth/living conditions. Terrorism is breeding in poverty stricken, backward parts of the world. From the Nigerian backwaters, to Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen - all these places have one thing in common. Poverty.

Tackle poverty and lack of opportunity and one by one, you are removing the breeding grounds. All you are then left with are zealots and psychopaths. A little known fact is that during the height of the Troubles the state hospital in NI had to close, ( I forget it's name ) as the aggressive psychopaths that would normally be held there were being used by both sides in the conflict. Guys like Lenny Murphy, and the Shankhill Butchers. There's a staggering fact that within an area of a few streets in Belfast, lets say one block in US terms, there were 23 diagnosed Cat 1 aggressive psychopaths. A cluster never seen before or since.

It takes a psychopath to set the bomb that kills a child. It takes a psychopath to walk up to a crowded market area and shoot - as recently happened in Thailand - a little girl in the head. The NCPO stepped in and put an end to that. Now they have to get to work in the South - promote wealth creating opportunities, isolate the psychos.

Listen to the genuine grievances of the majority - and work to resolve them.

[fab4]

I thought Chalerm was the answer?

The new centre would operate to the same standards as that of the US Pentagon, and the centre should be called Pentagon II, he said.

Mr Chalerm said he believed Pentagon II would improve efficiency in the government’s fight against the southern insurgency just as the Pentagon worked successfully to hunt down Osama bin Laden.

http://asiancorrespondent.com/86890/tongue-thaied-part-xvi-chalerm-and-the-new-pentagon/

Chalerm wasn't good enough obviously, whereas Thawil's reinstatement was so important the Courts decided that the Caretaker PM should be ousted over it. It can't be more important than that - by the way what did happen to the NSC?

On the Thai state's side of the divide, the May 22 coup and swift purge of senior officials most closely associated with the talks initiated by former prime minister Yingkluck Shinawatra's administration drove the final nails into the coffin of a process already crippled by political changes at the top of the National Security Council (NSC), the point agency for the talks which began in February last year.

But with hardliners skeptical of last year's initiative now firmly in the saddle on both sides of the conflict, the demise of the so-called "KL process" and the recent army putsch seem more likely to exacerbate than dampen the violence.

As one foreign analyst with many years experience in the region reflected: "It's worth speculating that this may not be moving in a positive direction at all."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-100614.html

Chalerm wasn't good enough obviously, whereas Thawil's reinstatement was so important the Courts decided that the Caretaker PM should be ousted over it. It can't be more important than that - by the way what did happen to the NSC?

What a silly comment. What is your point? Yingluck was ousted because she replaced Thawil with a family member. I think you call that nepotism. And that is is. Not because Thawil was better cleaning up the mess in the South.

Really, please stop mixing stories and telling half lies in order to mislead posters. Sometimes you should just give up. You are really making a mess out of many threads.

So you come up with "I thought Chalerm was the answer" and that's not a silly comment?

No comment on the Asia Times article, then?

Thawil was previously involved for 6 years in the peace process in the South and didn't get anywhere. To order the reinstatement of a person who had actively campaigned on sutheps stage against the government and expect him to be effective and non partisan in his dealings with them as Chief of the NSC was not just silly but bordering on stupid.

Sorry to make a mess of your threads. I wasn't aware that providing an alternative viewpoint was "making a mess". No half lies either. Yingluck was ousted because she replaced Thawil with the guy who was previously NSC Deputy Chief, regardless of whether he was related to her brothers ex-wife.

Stalk elsewhere.

[notmyself]

That's due to the fact that as I mentioned that as I mentioned the country is becoming increasingly secular.

The population is becoming increasingly secular but the government is going the other way.

[notmyself]

From the Nigerian backwaters, to Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen - all these places have one thing in common. Poverty.

And that is the only thing they have in common?

[triffid]

Option 3 would result in what we see in the federally administered tribal area of northern Pakistan. Despite the mass slaughter over many years, Thailand has done pretty will to not be enveloped to a much greater degree. There are 2 things which could solve the issue which are the empowerment of women and the education of children. Both of these are bitterly opposed in the south so good luck army.

which is why the insurgents attack teachers and monks in an attempt to slow or check official suppression of their malay language and history in their children.

Don't give up your day job whatever you do!

Even under the British Raj, and thereafter, FATA was entirely independent in all matters except external affairs. As to the violence there today, that is a different subject into which I won't allow myself to be tempted.

Do you know about the evolution of the Basques' ETA from armed rebellion to a peaceful political party? (One could also cite Quebecois who also once planted bombs but today have swapped that for linguistic and cultural supremacy within Quebec and a peaceful political party.)

Federalism has been adopted in many countries and in varying degrees to defuse regional tensions. Autonomy in socio-cultural matters as schools and language would be a manifestation of this. Evidently you are not able to distinguish such autonomy from independence.

As for your puerile final remark, I ignore it rather than waste time in a riposte. In fact I made a mistake wading into this topic in the first place. Too many here have rabid views impervious to rational conversation.

[metisdead]

A post containing anti coup/junta comments has been removed.

[chotthee]

Don't worry. GT200 & the airship with sort the Southern problem out.

Just sit tight.

[khunken]

Chalerm wasn't good enough obviously, whereas Thawil's reinstatement was so important the Courts decided that the Caretaker PM should be ousted over it. It can't be more important than that - by the way what did happen to the NSC?

On the Thai state's side of the divide, the May 22 coup and swift purge of senior officials most closely associated with the talks initiated by former prime minister Yingkluck Shinawatra's administration drove the final nails into the coffin of a process already crippled by political changes at the top of the National Security Council (NSC), the point agency for the talks which began in February last year.

But with hardliners skeptical of last year's initiative now firmly in the saddle on both sides of the conflict, the demise of the so-called "KL process" and the recent army putsch seem more likely to exacerbate than dampen the violence.

As one foreign analyst with many years experience in the region reflected: "It's worth speculating that this may not be moving in a positive direction at all."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-100614.html

Chalerm wasn't good enough obviously, whereas Thawil's reinstatement was so important the Courts decided that the Caretaker PM should be ousted over it. It can't be more important than that - by the way what did happen to the NSC?

What a silly comment. What is your point? Yingluck was ousted because she replaced Thawil with a family member. I think you call that nepotism. And that is is. Not because Thawil was better cleaning up the mess in the South.

Really, please stop mixing stories and telling half lies in order to mislead posters. Sometimes you should just give up. You are really making a mess out of many threads.

So you come up with "I thought Chalerm was the answer" and that's not a silly comment?

No comment on the Asia Times article, then?

Thawil was previously involved for 6 years in the peace process in the South and didn't get anywhere. To order the reinstatement of a person who had actively campaigned on sutheps stage against the government and expect him to be effective and non partisan in his dealings with them as Chief of the NSC was not just silly but bordering on stupid.

Sorry to make a mess of your threads. I wasn't aware that providing an alternative viewpoint was "making a mess". No half lies either. Yingluck was ousted because she replaced Thawil with the guy who was previously NSC Deputy Chief, regardless of whether he was related to her brothers ex-wife.

Stalk elsewhere.

Ignoring the 'worth' of Chalerm, you are - as usual - twisting the Thawil case into knots.

Whether he was efficient in doing his job or not is irrelevant to the way he was removed, which was purely to facilitate a Shin clan member becoming police chief. In addition Thawil appealed his politically motivated removal (nepotism) as he was entitled to do and the court decided that he was removed unfairly.

That he appeared on a stage is also irrelevant as PTP were forced to reinstall him. Yingluck was found guilty because Thawil was replaced because (not regardless) of the nepotism.

Turning to the Op, only when the government of the day allows some degree of local empowerment will a solution be worked out in the South. I'm afraid that the military have shown no signs of even discussing that.