Future of the islands

[ParadiseLost]

There is another group from whom we have heard very little - the yoga schools.

Do students qualify for ED visas?

How about instructors?

Please forgive incorrect terminology as I am too lazy to google...

[adamtwilley]

Open water Instructor is the new DM in Koh Tao. Most divemasters earn similar salaries to the Burmese. I couldn't live the lifestyle I am accustomed to on it. My rent alone is more than my salary. I like my home comforts.

This is interesting though as there will be less competition for work and a good demand, wages for DM should increase again?

Most of the operators out here, operate illegally on some level. I have heard also of things such as lapsed insurance or registration fees. Won't name any names but locals will have some idea.

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[ParadiseLost]

I found a website which gives info regarding the Sports Authority in Thailand - www.thailand-visa.net/sports-visa-employment.html

Apparently it is difficult to get accreditation as a couch. Not sure why they need couches but there you go. Not many applicants I imagine...

Is accreditation by the Sports Authority open to DM or instructors? Is this the legal route you have to follow?

Edited July 19, 2014 by ParadiseLost

[Tao Diver]

As nobody has hazarded a guess as to how much of the course price is left as profit I will divulge

1,400 Baht Or thereabouts.

I know I wouldn't want to be operating on such tight profit margins in a business. This might go some way to make people understand how hard it is to be legal. It is all well and good just simply slagging off all those who don't have all the legal paperwork but in the harsh light of day as much as I don't condone it I can understand it. Something a lot here don't seem to be able to do.

[spidermike007]

Good post. I think it is obvious the junta is forcing a crackdown without any regard towards, concern with, or forethought on the kind of impact this will have on tourism, the work force, Thailand's ability to attract skilled migrant labor, etc. What kind of medium to long term impact this will have remains to be seen. But, it will have an impact. Sticking ones head in the sand and pretending Thailand does not need foreign talent and skills is foolhardy at best, and positively arrogant at worst. No doubt visa restrictions should be simplified and eased at this critical juncture in Thailand history, certainly not the opposite. Mature, rational adult minds would realize this. It is quite possible sociologists and historians may be pointing out these policies in 20 years, and theorizing that this was the point at which Thailand began to seriously loose it's footing and it's premier place within SE Asia. The country does run the risk losing it's place to Malaysia, and Vietnam. It has already lost out to Indonesia, as their economy is far larger, and their policies far more dynamic and coherent.

Spidermike007

[adamtwilley]

I found a website which gives info regarding the Sports Authority in Thailand - www.thailand-visa.net/sports-visa-employment.html

Apparently it is difficult to get accreditation as a couch. Not sure why they need couches but there you go. Not many applicants I imagine...

Is accreditation by the Sports Authority open to DM or instructors? Is this the legal route you have to follow?

I tried on educational grounds, the qualifications are worth educational credits in most developed educational systems. Immigration had none of it.

As it is considered a recreational activity I doubt it would be covered under sports. I wonder if they class fishing as a sport? Maybe we could all become avid fishermen. ;-)

In all seriousness though i think there will be alot of people on education visa's pretending to learn Thai, or some other work around. We just need a clever Thai person to inspect the new system for its vulnerability, just like the old system.

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[ParadiseLost]

I found a website which gives info regarding the Sports Authority in Thailand - www.thailand-visa.net/sports-visa-employment.html

Apparently it is difficult to get accreditation as a couch. Not sure why they need couches but there you go. Not many applicants I imagine...

Is accreditation by the Sports Authority open to DM or instructors? Is this the legal route you have to follow?

I tried on educational grounds, the qualifications are worth educational credits in most developed educational systems. Immigration had none of it.

As it is considered a recreational activity I doubt it would be covered under sports. I wonder if they class fishing as a sport? Maybe we could all become avid fishermen. ;-)

In all seriousness though i think there will be alot of people on education visa's pretending to learn Thai, or some other work around. We just need a clever Thai person to inspect the new system for its vulnerability, just like the old system.

Sent from my HUAWEI G610-U20 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Or perhaps come up with a new business model.

Fewer players offering DM to resorts and shops for a daily fee.

Accredited, insured DM with legal WP.

I'm not saying I know how to do this, but I am willing to try.

Not that I am a diver, or have ever dived - I am more interested in a business opportunity.

After having lived here for many years not working, at last the playing field is being leveled...

[limbos]

Buying property on Samui and Tao are 2 different things. As far as I know you can't buy land on Tao but you can on Samui. I don't think there is any Chanote title land on Tao whereas there is loads on Samui

At present there are around 64 dive schools on Tao. Thinking that just having 2 operators will make things better is ridiculous. Having less companies but legal isn't the solution but I can't see the Thai Junta thinking things through in a sensible, business like fashion which is what is needed.

64 Dive Schools. No wonder there are no fish around. Best make Tao a snorkling only area. The fish would come back and so would the tourists.

So what exactly makes the fish go away because of 64 dive shops, I would love to hear your explanation on this! Divers only leave bubbles, in total contrast to the ungoverned fishing and trawler boats that clean out the Gulf of Thailand.

The decline in fish in the Gulf has hardly anything to do with the dc's on either Koh Tao, Phangan or Samui. Get your facts straight.

[Grindting]

When me and my friends got our padi licence in phiphi our instructor (British) was illegal and a visa runner, as was his Swedish wife, as was every other expat in his shop, and more than likely most of the other dive instructors on that shithole island. They were very casual in stating how they just leave the country every so often then come back. These guys I take it will all now be <deleted>, and have to go back to the west and get jobs back home. This was 2011. So The dream is over?

Some will stay and get legit. Some will leave. Thais will replace their job and no doubt we'll be reading such things: "German tourist female dies diving, witnesses reported the Thai dive instructor did not follow proper dive practices.it was discovered he was not experienced in underwater emergency and did not have the correct certificates / qualifications"

Edited July 19, 2014 by Grindting

[Tao Diver]

I found a website which gives info regarding the Sports Authority in Thailand - www.thailand-visa.net/sports-visa-employment.html

Apparently it is difficult to get accreditation as a couch. Not sure why they need couches but there you go. Not many applicants I imagine...

Is accreditation by the Sports Authority open to DM or instructors? Is this the legal route you have to follow?

I tried on educational grounds, the qualifications are worth educational credits in most developed educational systems. Immigration had none of it.

As it is considered a recreational activity I doubt it would be covered under sports. I wonder if they class fishing as a sport? Maybe we could all become avid fishermen. ;-)

In all seriousness though i think there will be alot of people on education visa's pretending to learn Thai, or some other work around. We just need a clever Thai person to inspect the new system for its vulnerability, just like the old system.

Sent from my HUAWEI G610-U20 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Or perhaps come up with a new business model.

Fewer players offering DM to resorts and shops for a daily fee.

Accredited, insured DM with legal WP.

I'm not saying I know how to do this, but I am willing to try.

Not that I am a diver, or have ever dived - I am more interested in a business opportunity.

After having lived here for many years not working, at last the playing field is being leveled...

Paradise lost have you looked at the figures I posted about the profit margins in diving when legal. It isn't just the DM's and instructors it is the equipment, the tanks, the boats the shop, the rents, the electric, the criminally high water rates you have to pay etc. Fewer players would simply mean higher prices. You also have to supply the demand. As it stands now some of the big Thai owned dive centres would need to employ over 100 Thai staff to legally hire the dive professionals they need. Just what are these Thai staff supposed to do ?

Those simply saying " Get legal " Simply don't grasp the nature of the business. As I have said there needs to be some discussion between the dive industry and the Labour department to try to come to some sort of compromise to keep the divers, who spend lots of money whilst here coming to dive or to learn to dive.

The shop I work for only has small groups of 4 people per instructor even though PADI says you can have 8. Even though all our staff are legal we have a set number of customers we can deal with to our standards.

It is going to be interesting to see how this pans out throughout the islands in the coming months.

[smotherb]

And I suppose you adhere to every letter of the law whilst here ? They were not taking any sort of gamble at the time as it was legally allowed. They were doing this that were correct at the time so where you get the " knowing full well it wasn't the correct way to do things " I don't know. As well as being concerned about my friends, That is what friends do.

Take one friend. He works in the Middle East. On his leave period he comes to Samui where he has a house, car and bike. He doesn't need nor want to work and gets a TV every time yet now he is knackered.

I know several off-shore workers in Songkhla. They work rotational shifts of varying lengths, but return for the visa exempt 30 days in between working. In the last month or so, many have been questioned by immigration, but their passports reveal their rotational time periods and a simple explanation that they work out of country and spend their off-duty time here, has been enough to get them in with another 30 day stamp. Maybe after August 12 it will be different, but still a good story with documented substantiation seems to be the key.

[futsukayoi]

People are under the assumption that the dive shops here are making a killing. I work for a shop that provides me with a work permit, pays for my visa, pays me when I am sick, just had 2 weeks off with dengue so happy about getting paid. I get a 5 days a month off and 1 months holiday. I also get a fixed salary against commission only like a lot of the other shops here. We charge just under 11,000 Baht for an open water dive course that takes 3 1/2 days to complete. How much do you think the shop takes as profit from that ?

It surprised me when it is all broken down.

I know exactly how little many of the DMs and Instructors are paid and also how hard many of them work for it. Especially for some of the freelancers it is a very precarious existence which most only put up with for the love of diving or partying. I did the DM course in Koh Tao and that convinced me that I am happy to pay to dive rather than wo0rk pretty hard for close to nothing.

One point though is that if companies have to follow the law my understanding is that they have to pay foreign employees a lot more.

[ParadiseLost]

Lets face it, if there is a proper clampdown and all the illegal workers do disappear many shops will have to close.

There will still be demand and the legal shops will prosper, but they will suffer from limited capacity.

There will be opportunities to grow and buy equipment pretty cheaply over the next few months so all it needs is a big enough player to move in.

If rates need to go up to enable DM to be legal, then so be it. If courses cost twice as much, will there still be demand?

My guess is yes, if it is the same throughout the country.

[Absolut]

Lets face it, if there is a proper clampdown and all the illegal workers do disappear many shops will have to close.

There will still be demand and the legal shops will prosper, but they will suffer from limited capacity.

There will be opportunities to grow and buy equipment pretty cheaply over the next few months so all it needs is a big enough player to move in.

If rates need to go up to enable DM to be legal, then so be it. If courses cost twice as much, will there still be demand?

My guess is yes, if it is the same throughout the country.

I'm not a diver and know little about the industry in Thailand and KT in particular, but if courses were to double when it evolves into this new legal only practise would it be able to compete against somewhere like Gili in Indonesia where I know many go to do the same as offered in Thailand?

I'm not an advocate of anyone working illegally and by all means Thailand are well within their rights to enforce their immigration rules, this may have a very drastic effect on this one industry. That being said, I'd be interested to know what kind of dollar figure open water diving and certification directly contributes to the Thai economy. Sure it's tourism based but I can only guess that out of the millions of legitimate tourists arriving for a holiday in Thailand only a very small percentage engage the diving industry.

[motorsaimang]

Koh Tao is totally <deleted>, I agree with the 80%+ illegal work force and don't think there is a legal work around in the near distant future (plenty of Thais live in Phuket, Pattaya and even Sumui; but Tao? I've never seen or heard of a Thai do anything not related to driving or maintenance in dive shops.). The bars are <deleted> too, the majority seem to have a 50-50 workforce outside of the kitchen and cleaning. Phi Phi isn't far off too.

Even though i live in a different area, Koh Tao was my favourite place in Thailand. Funnily enough Phi Phi is pretty close to 2nd fave. The man commanilty here is the lack of: enforced regulations, Thai nationals not reliant on tourism and government officials. RIP young farang playgrounds.

[monkeycountry]

As nobody has hazarded a guess as to how much of the course price is left as profit I will divulge

1,400 Baht Or thereabouts.

I know I wouldn't want to be operating on such tight profit margins in a business. This might go some way to make people understand how hard it is to be legal. It is all well and good just simply slagging off all those who don't have all the legal paperwork but in the harsh light of day as much as I don't condone it I can understand it. Something a lot here don't seem to be able to do.

I think you will find that (1400 / 11000) = 12.7% is a quite normal profit margin in mainstream businesses around the world. Companies with a much higher profit margin usually have a unique product or a good brand name and therefore little competition, which allows them to charge whatever. If the product is mainstream, then competition will keep the margin low.

Obviously you need a certain level of turnover for any business to be worthwhile at a 12.7% margin.

[futsukayoi]

If Koh Tao were forced to operate closer to the laws. What would the impact be.

1) The criminals (harsh but that is what they actually are) running and involved in the businesses would need to up their prices, reduce their profits, change their business model or go out of business. Many would probably need to find work somewhere other than Koh Tao.

2) The criminals who use their services (errr including me) would need to pay more, dive less or dive somewhere else.

3) The corrupt officials who connive in allowing these operations to disregard the law will lose their income.

This would be tough on some of the individuals involved but would hardly be a big negative for the Thailand and would probably be far outweighed by the positive effects of some of the other impacts.

4) Thailand would get more of the revenue it is entitled to allowing it to improve schools, hospitals, infrastructure and the bank accounts of some different corrupt officials.

5) Most divers would probably not chose not to dive or dive significantly less if Koh Tao prices go up. They would either pay more or probably do more of their diving elsewhere. This means that all the other dive operations in the region would regain all the revenue they have unfairly been losing by sticking (at least marginally more) to the law. It costs me about 60% more to dive from Koh Samui than Koh Tao and for that reason I chose to do most of my courses and a lot of my fun diving in Koh Tao even though I live on Samui. With a fair playing field most of that money would have gone to dive operators on Samui.

6) Operators would be forced to take steps to employ more Thai staff to replace some of their foreign DMs and Instructors. Getting Thai Instructors is tough the ones I know found the ability to teach in a foreign language was a big hurdle. For DMs though the Thais are only being prevented by the fact it is much cheaper to hire illegal foreigners. To train someone to be a DM they need to do Open Water, Advanced, Rescue and Dive Master for PADI or SSI equivalents. They also need to have their own equipment. For a dive operation to put a Thai through that training and provide equipment and some subsistence during the training would cost at least 100,000 baht even if they do it all in house. A foreign DM is happy to spend their own money to do all that so it costs the dive operator nothing and they can undercut the local and keep them out of a job.

Selfishly I hope Koh Tao carries on as it is and I can carry on being a hypocrite and take advantage of the cheaper costs but if it has to change I don't think that is in any way unreasonable .

[ParadiseLost]

If Koh Tao were forced to operate closer to the laws. What would the impact be.

1) The criminals (harsh but that is what they actually are) running and involved in the businesses would need to up their prices, reduce their profits, change their business model or go out of business. Many would probably need to find work somewhere other than Koh Tao.

2) The criminals who use their services (errr including me) would need to pay more, dive less or dive somewhere else.

3) The corrupt officials who connive in allowing these operations to disregard the law will lose their income.

This would be tough on some of the individuals involved but would hardly be a big negative for the Thailand and would probably be far outweighed by the positive effects of some of the other impacts.

4) Thailand would get more of the revenue it is entitled to allowing it to improve schools, hospitals, infrastructure and the bank accounts of some different corrupt officials.

5) Most divers would probably not chose not to dive or dive significantly less if Koh Tao prices go up. They would either pay more or probably do more of their diving elsewhere. This means that all the other dive operations in the region would regain all the revenue they have unfairly been losing by sticking (at least marginally more) to the law. It costs me about 60% more to dive from Koh Samui than Koh Tao and for that reason I chose to do most of my courses and a lot of my fun diving in Koh Tao even though I live on Samui. With a fair playing field most of that money would have gone to dive operators on Samui.

6) Operators would be forced to take steps to employ more Thai staff to replace some of their foreign DMs and Instructors. Getting Thai Instructors is tough the ones I know found the ability to teach in a foreign language was a big hurdle. For DMs though the Thais are only being prevented by the fact it is much cheaper to hire illegal foreigners. To train someone to be a DM they need to do Open Water, Advanced, Rescue and Dive Master for PADI or SSI equivalents. They also need to have their own equipment. For a dive operation to put a Thai through that training and provide equipment and some subsistence during the training would cost at least 100,000 baht even if they do it all in house. A foreign DM is happy to spend their own money to do all that so it costs the dive operator nothing and they can undercut the local and keep them out of a job.

Selfishly I hope Koh Tao carries on as it is and I can carry on being a hypocrite and take advantage of the cheaper costs but if it has to change I don't think that is in any way unreasonable .

Great post.

If I may ask, regarding the bold text above, how long does it take to complete all the courses? Is the 100k for starting as a raw inexperienced first timer, or would a person who dives regularly not have open water or even advanced already?

Are the current Thai divers without qualifications good enough that it would cost less to get them certified?

[worzel]

Som non nar why be here working illegaly in first place

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[futsukayoi]

Great post.

If I may ask, regarding the bold text above, how long does it take to complete all the courses? Is the 100k for starting as a raw inexperienced first timer, or would a person who dives regularly not have open water or even advanced already?

Are the current Thai divers without qualifications good enough that it would cost less to get them certified?

-------

The 100,000 baht was from complete novice to dive master (the courses and additional a few additional dives to get the minimum to start dive master) and also the cost of about the cheapest equipment you can get away with (a DM needs there own). Anyone already diving would have at least open water already nay certs or dives you already have would not need to be done again. There are quite a few Thais who already dive and it would be cheaper for them. The Thai DMs instructors I know though mainly started working for dive operations in non-diving roles (on the boats or helping with tanks and equipment for example). The dive companies have then given them the opportunity to gradually move on if they have the interest and aptitude. Some started to lead snorkelling groups and then gradually get their dive certs.

The courses the courses will vary slightly in time and can be done quicker if the instructing staff are available and you want to be full on and read up your theory in the evenings. I would say 2 months from zero to DM is realistic if you are fairly committed but still want some time to enjoy yourself. Generally Open Water is around 4 days, Advanced 2 days, Emergency First Response and Rescue 3 days, DM about 4 weeks. If you rush through that lot you would probably still need to fit in a few more dives to get to the minimum you need (you need 20 dives to start DM and 60 by the time you certify).

[PiPiFFS]

Great post.

If I may ask, regarding the bold text above, how long does it take to complete all the courses? Is the 100k for starting as a raw inexperienced first timer, or would a person who dives regularly not have open water or even advanced already?

Are the current Thai divers without qualifications good enough that it would cost less to get them certified?

-------

The 100,000 baht was from complete novice to dive master (the courses and additional a few additional dives to get the minimum to start dive master) and also the cost of about the cheapest equipment you can get away with (a DM needs there own). Anyone already diving would have at least open water already nay certs or dives you already have would not need to be done again. There are quite a few Thais who already dive and it would be cheaper for them. The Thai DMs instructors I know though mainly started working for dive operations in non-diving roles (on the boats or helping with tanks and equipment for example). The dive companies have then given them the opportunity to gradually move on if they have the interest and aptitude. Some started to lead snorkelling groups and then gradually get their dive certs.

The courses the courses will vary slightly in time and can be done quicker if the instructing staff are available and you want to be full on and read up your theory in the evenings. I would say 2 months from zero to DM is realistic if you are fairly committed but still want some time to enjoy yourself. Generally Open Water is around 4 days, Advanced 2 days, Emergency First Response and Rescue 3 days, DM about 4 weeks. If you rush through that lot you would probably still need to fit in a few more dives to get to the minimum you need (you need 20 dives to start DM and 60 by the time you certify).

You actually need 40 dives to start your DMT course and 50 to finish it. It can be done in a few weeks but that doesn't mean you are going to be a good DM.

DM's are also paid sh#t. You can live here working as a DM but only just. Instructors are a bit better but even they struggle at times, especially if they are freelance getting the 1 packs and 2 packs.

[limbos]

DM trainee needs 40 dives to start and 60 to finish/complete the course and for a Thai the wages paid to a DM and Instructor would be really good, considering they have a 'tank boy' background.

[futsukayoi]

Great post.

If I may ask, regarding the bold text above, how long does it take to complete all the courses? Is the 100k for starting as a raw inexperienced first timer, or would a person who dives regularly not have open water or even advanced already?

Are the current Thai divers without qualifications good enough that it would cost less to get them certified?

-------

The 100,000 baht was from complete novice to dive master (the courses and additional a few additional dives to get the minimum to start dive master) and also the cost of about the cheapest equipment you can get away with (a DM needs there own). Anyone already diving would have at least open water already nay certs or dives you already have would not need to be done again. There are quite a few Thais who already dive and it would be cheaper for them. The Thai DMs instructors I know though mainly started working for dive operations in non-diving roles (on the boats or helping with tanks and equipment for example). The dive companies have then given them the opportunity to gradually move on if they have the interest and aptitude. Some started to lead snorkelling groups and then gradually get their dive certs.

The courses the courses will vary slightly in time and can be done quicker if the instructing staff are available and you want to be full on and read up your theory in the evenings. I would say 2 months from zero to DM is realistic if you are fairly committed but still want some time to enjoy yourself. Generally Open Water is around 4 days, Advanced 2 days, Emergency First Response and Rescue 3 days, DM about 4 weeks. If you rush through that lot you would probably still need to fit in a few more dives to get to the minimum you need (you need 20 dives to start DM and 60 by the time you certify).

You actually need 40 dives to start your DMT course and 50 to finish it. It can be done in a few weeks but that doesn't mean you are going to be a good DM.

DM's are also paid sh#t. You can live here working as a DM but only just. Instructors are a bit better but even they struggle at times, especially if they are freelance getting the 1 packs and 2 packs.

Is that a new change ? My "Divemaster Course - Instructor Guide" for PADI is from 2010 and shows 20 logged dives to start and 60 to finish. As you say you really need significantly more experience to be a good DM and if the minimum to certify has dropped from 60 to 50 that would seem a negative step.

[futsukayoi]

DM trainee needs 40 dives to start and 60 to finish/complete the course and for a Thai the wages paid to a DM and Instructor would be really good, considering they have a 'tank boy' background.

Sorry missed your post. You are correct according to the PADI site. So they have increased the minimum number to start since 2010. A good move in my view.

[Razzler1973]

Buying property on Samui and Tao are 2 different things. As far as I know you can't buy land on Tao but you can on Samui. I don't think there is any Chanote title land on Tao whereas there is loads on Samui

At present there are around 64 dive schools on Tao. Thinking that just having 2 operators will make things better is ridiculous. Having less companies but legal isn't the solution but I can't see the Thai Junta thinking things through in a sensible, business like fashion which is what is needed.

64 Dive Schools. No wonder there are no fish around. Best make Tao a snorkling only area. The fish would come back and so would the tourists.

This was amazing to me too, 64 dive schools on Ko Tao!!

I am not sure how the visas work for Thailand, is it like the UK that you apply and get one or is it directly tied to your job?

Here in Middle East your visa is directly sponsored by your company and reliant on your having a job with that company. Job gone and so are you within 28 days and that's regardless of if you lived here for 6 months or 26 years

We tend to renew every 3 years but perhaps there could be an annually renewed visa? Government knows where everyone is, has opportunity on annual basis to turn down renewals and ship people off. People pay taxes. Businesses are covered but no long term committment that they can stay

That's pretty much how it is here and people consider it 'home' here (when it's not really, zero rights, etc)

[2fishin2]

First off, their country not ours. We dont have any say so in their immigration laws. We are obliged to follow them whatever they are. You guys anywhere in this country doing illegal stuff like working without work permit and or proper visa just need to shut up and do the right thing. You have the square root of zero credibility in these conversations. If diving goes into the tubes because of immigration enforcement, its their problem not the illegal shops or instructors. And honestly the reason there are so many shops on Tao is bingo, illegal activities that should have never been allowed to happen in the first place. If Thailand wants to get their stuff together quit the whining and if you want to stay, get legal. Its funny that the crap that has been allowed to happen here would never be tolerated in any of the farang's home countries. Time for a bunch of you people to go back to your homelands! I hate whiners!

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Edited July 22, 2014 by 2fishin2

[PoorSucker]

Here in Middle East your visa is directly sponsored by your company and reliant on your having a job with that company. Job gone and so are you within 28 days and that's regardless of if you lived here for 6 months or 26 years

Here you have to leave the same day your job is gone or pay 1900 baht for a seven day extension.

Problem discussed here is that these people do not have correct visas or work permits.

[Razzler1973]

I realise people are doing things on the side and on the islands it seems the crackdowns are a bit weak, perhaps cause local businesses 'need' the staff

If they are enforced 100% then they just won't be able to work. Just wondering if there was a way they could employ people in these type of jobs whilst still retaining control

You'd think the government would be into that as it means collecting regular money for visas, etc

[PattayaPhom]

Reading through this seems like most people on Tao have lazed into a comfort zone. Just becauase someone works illegally or builds on Por Bor 5 or public land dosnt make it OK. I think this will be one big wake up call in the very near future with many loosing millions of THB

[RTH10260]

Lets face it, if there is a proper clampdown and all the illegal workers do disappear many shops will have to close.

There will still be demand and the legal shops will prosper, but they will suffer from limited capacity.

There will be opportunities to grow and buy equipment pretty cheaply over the next few months so all it needs is a big enough player to move in.

If rates need to go up to enable DM to be legal, then so be it. If courses cost twice as much, will there still be demand?

My guess is yes, if it is the same throughout the country.

Maybe the history of business development on KT has led them to cater to the lower end of budget tourists. This segment will be price sensitive and may drop out. Or maybe they will just spend less on the sanuk side if they are true lovers of the underwater environment.