chiang mai Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 GBP at 53.61 this morning (BKB), dipping? Skinny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMA_FARANG Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Yes, the normal thing. Investors coming back into Thailand now that the coup seems to have given more stability to Thailand. Money from foriegn investors starting to flow back into Thailand. They need Baht for their short term investments, and as the demand for Baht increases the Baht rate versus the dollar gets stronger (and probablyother currencies also). It's the old law of "supply and demand". A normal exchange rate fluctuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I'm guessing that GBP is subdued because of the BOE minutes, still no sign of a vote for a rate increase although the tone of the debate is becoming more hawkish, some commentators even suggesting a rate increase might come this year. I suppose that when that rate increase does come, GBP growth will cancel out THB growth (in the short term), it all depends on timings as to what level the pair will settle at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Yes, the normal thing. Investors coming back into Thailand now that the coup seems to have given more stability to Thailand. Money from foriegn investors starting to flow back into Thailand. They need Baht for their short term investments, and as the demand for Baht increases the Baht rate versus the dollar gets stronger (and probablyother currencies also). It's the old law of "supply and demand". A normal exchange rate fluctuation. Maybe a normal exchange rate fluctuation. But how normal was the exchange rate before the FDI ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 A fair point. I suppose a person could argue that FDI is the new norm, alternatively it might be argued that if interest rates in the West were at their long term average, there would be very little FDI. I think I'll put my money on the fact that debt levels in Thailand are far lower than in the West hence FDI is the new paragdim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10996710/The-pound-is-overvalued-warns-the-IMF.html Oh look, I'm shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10996710/The-pound-is-overvalued-warns-the-IMF.html Oh look, I'm shocked! Pound overvalued = blasphemy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10996710/The-pound-is-overvalued-warns-the-IMF.html Oh look, I'm shocked! I don;t have much regard for the IMF and the bird in charge ,only last year they were telling Cameron that his austerity measures would destroy Britain only to have to eat their words and just upgrade our outlook for the second time , they are like me ,just take an informed guess ,sometimes right sometimes wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 A fair point. I suppose a person could argue that FDI is the new norm, alternatively it might be argued that if interest rates in the West were at their long term average, there would be very little FDI. I think I'll put my money on the fact that debt levels in Thailand are far lower than in the West hence FDI is the new paragdim. Right - But what I was actually questioning was the baht's exchange rate before the FDI. Was the baht overvalued before ?. Right again on interest rates in U.S. and FDI. In the big picture in my opinion it was Bush's deregulation in favor of the financial sector and that hack Greenspan lowering interest rates that have the baht/dollar exchange rate where it is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 A fair point. I suppose a person could argue that FDI is the new norm, alternatively it might be argued that if interest rates in the West were at their long term average, there would be very little FDI. I think I'll put my money on the fact that debt levels in Thailand are far lower than in the West hence FDI is the new paragdim. Right - But what I was actually questioning was the baht's exchange rate before the FDI. Was the baht overvalued before ?. Right again on interest rates in U.S. and FDI. In the big picture in my opinion it was Bush's deregulation in favor of the financial sector and that hack Greenspan lowering interest rates that have the baht/dollar exchange rate where it is today. The big question surrounding the Baht has always been, what is fair value against USD. It's clear that its value has been distorted since the Fed's QE program started and since we don't know the extent of FDI prior to that program, it's difficult to understand where any base line might lay. And since countries can attract FDI almost at will, the value of any currency is unlikely to reflect the underlying strength of its economy. Case in point, BOT issued USD 2 billion of bonds last week and they were all snapped up by overseas institutional investors in less than twenty minutes, a yield of 4%+ on offer! The impact of that venture strengthened THB since by nearly two baht. Ditto the UK where FDI has pushed the Pound to almost harmful levels, that value is no way reflects accurately the state of the UK economy. So in this globalized low interest rate age, FDI can be a game changer when it comes to exchange rates, trying to figure out what the values should be without any is an almost impossible task any more. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10998738/Pound-overvalued-What-does-the-Big-Mac-Index-say.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Seems to be weakening a bit today wonder why Sent from my ASUS_T00J using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huayrat Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 (edited) How can this be, there's some bloke over in the Financial Crisis thread who swears USD/THB is headed towards 40 or even 50, surely he can't be mistaken. sounds like the same guy who said about 1 year ago that the GBP would remain weak... It was at 44 then and now its 54.. <snip> Edited July 31, 2014 by soundman No personal attacks thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It's the first of the month, a big day for economic numbers out of the US. Unfortunately, as a result of the time difference, it'll be too late to do anything here by the time they are released! Hint 1: One member of the Fed thinks a rate increase is due. Hint 2: GBP may be overvalued. Place your bets now! Forward looking only, hindsight plays no role whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnotherOneAmerican Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 (edited) Seems to be weakening a bit today wonder why Military Junta is buying baht, that's all there is to it. Desperately trying to stop the rot, but the moment they stop buying, baht starts dropping. It's a slippery slop that only slides in one direction. Edited August 1, 2014 by AnotherOneAmerican Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Seems to be weakening a bit today wonder why Military Junta is buying baht, that's all there is to it. Desperately trying to stop the rot, but the moment they stop buying, baht starts dropping. It's a slippery slop that only slides in one direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 (edited) Seems to be weakening a bit today wonder why Military Junta is buying baht, that's all there is to it. Desperately trying to stop the rot, but the moment they stop buying, baht starts dropping. It's a slippery slop that only slides in one direction. And this children is why you should always say no to drugs. PS: Post 43 did warn in advance. Edited August 1, 2014 by chiang mai 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 GBP weakening re the BOE rate increase comments, GBP/THB pushing 52.60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 (edited) 54,47 at the Moment You get so excited when it goes down Chiang Mai Edited August 13, 2014 by i claudius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Bank of Ayudhya, GBP/THB 52.73: http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anon676545345 Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 A fair point. I suppose a person could argue that FDI is the new norm, alternatively it might be argued that if interest rates in the West were at their long term average, there would be very little FDI. I think I'll put my money on the fact that debt levels in Thailand are far lower than in the West hence FDI is the new paragdim. Right - But what I was actually questioning was the baht's exchange rate before the FDI. Was the baht overvalued before ?. Right again on interest rates in U.S. and FDI. In the big picture in my opinion it was Bush's deregulation in favor of the financial sector and that hack Greenspan lowering interest rates that have the baht/dollar exchange rate where it is today. The big question surrounding the Baht has always been, what is fair value against USD. It's clear that its value has been distorted since the Fed's QE program started and since we don't know the extent of FDI prior to that program, it's difficult to understand where any base line might lay. And since countries can attract FDI almost at will, the value of any currency is unlikely to reflect the underlying strength of its economy. Case in point, BOT issued USD 2 billion of bonds last week and they were all snapped up by overseas institutional investors in less than twenty minutes, a yield of 4%+ on offer! The impact of that venture strengthened THB since by nearly two baht. Ditto the UK where FDI has pushed the Pound to almost harmful levels, that value is no way reflects accurately the state of the UK economy. So in this globalized low interest rate age, FDI can be a game changer when it comes to exchange rates, trying to figure out what the values should be without any is an almost impossible task any more. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10998738/Pound-overvalued-What-does-the-Big-Mac-Index-say.html The Bhat has been strengthened by the increase of foreign investment in the manufacturing industry partially due to cheap liquidity caused by QE, that investment is starting to tail off now. The market was anticipating rate rises from the UK and US but that's been curtailed by a dovish Yellen and the BOE's Mark Carney basically put paid to the idea of a rate rise this year from the UK today which accounts for the drop off in the pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'm guessing we may see US weaken as a result: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-18/yellen-dashboard-warning-light-glows-as-millions-work-part-time.html The UK and US seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet when it comes to rate increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 (edited) But then UK inflation comes in far lower than expected, it's all trade offs. Either way, THB strengthens. 52.72 at Thanachart for a TT. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11042766/UK-inflation-drops-sharply-to-1.6pc-in-July-pound-falls.html Edited August 19, 2014 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatboy Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 But then UK inflation comes in far lower than expected, it's all trade offs. Either way, THB strengthens. 52.72 at Thanachart for a TT. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11042766/UK-inflation-drops-sharply-to-1.6pc-in-July-pound-falls.html yesterday morning scb,bkkb, 52.96 TT 8.30am today scb,52.73,bkkb,52.66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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