Get Out Of $dollars$ Now!

[bkkandrew]

This thread is hilarious. Everyone has an opinion including me. People hoping the US economy will collapse because of the Evil Bushman and others using criteria that don't matter as far as economies go are probably all wrong.

If Martin gets his way and we go back to caves, the US will be fine because it has lots of caves and lots of unpopulated space and food. This has nothing to do with the dollar despite trying to tie in the death of industrialization from some esoteric belief.

Hang on, I claim copyright here, I was the one that identified Martin as Amish... Se threads passim (cannot be bothered to search)...

[Martin]

I had noticed that ‘pap’ had got the erroneous notion that I ‘want us all back in caves’, but the thread had moved on, so I let it pass.

There are pessimists who fear such a collapse of civilization (and world population) as we know it, but I am not one of them. However, I am not such an optimist that I can take refuge in denial that there will be big changes as the supply of very cheap energy dwindles.

Trying to take a judicious position between the extremes of the pessimists (who panic) and the optimists (who fail to prepare), and recognizing that the latter are prone to ‘flip’ and switch to join the former, I have done some macro-economics reading of late.

The examination by Deffeyes of the mathematics of Hubbert’s work on rates of oilfield depletion, and the accurate prediction that they led to, is very persuasive. It is ISBN 0-691-09086-6 and available by mail-order from Princeton University Press.

Whilst the LATOC (Life After The Oil Crash) website is overly-panicked in my opinion, its masthead banner is true: “Deal with reality, lest reality deal with you.”

Hyper-industrialisation, with its concomitant hyper-urbanisation will not be economically viable when energy-use frugality becomes the order of the day. However, if we look at various countries about three generations ago, we can see models of semi-industrialisation with semi-mixed–farming being viable in countries with sound money, and sustainable, when exosomatic energy was very expensive compared to later.

This thread is about a situation where a formerly sound currency is now unsound, and issued by a country whose lifestyles are going to be unsustainable.

So I am not predicting that it will be “back to caves”, but I am making a case that it would be wise to accept that it will be best if many of us get back to the land sooner rather than later, and that we adopt sound-money principles sharpish.

One thing recently gave me cause for hope. It was a couple of years ago when I was taking a look at the little world of Bangkok’s most expensive international schools, and supplementing my pensions, by working as a Supply Teacher and part-time Science Teacher in some of them. Twice, from students’ displays on walls, I saw that the need for fashioning sustainable lifestyle was now a part of the Geography curriculum. The next generation growing up with the concept, as part of what they have always known, bodes well. The effects of the fact that we old dogs are failing to develop necessary new tricks may be mitigated thereby.

I am grateful that my attention was drawn to the existence of the Amish people. I am not Amish, but would be proud of it if I was. The link that I posted before on another thread acquired a destructive comma at the end, but here is another one:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/10/04/...in2059816.shtml

[LivinLOS]

I have been reading these posts on Thaivisa for 3 years. I have a feeling that these US$ posts will continue indefinitely until the orinial posters are dead, or the dollar actually does cause some financial crisis. Pretty funny really.

Have you looked at the 3 year USD index graph ???

Seems those bear posters were right !! Holding dollars or dollar based assets has been a stinker of a proposition.

The big question is when and if the slide becomes a rout..

[cclub75]

This -old- thread (started july 2006) is the perfect proof... that everything was in the cards... Since a long time.

The current bloodbath shall not be a surprise.

So is it still time to get out of the USD ?

Edited January 17, 2008 by cclub75

[LaoPo]

This -old- thread (started july 2006) is the perfect proof... that everything was in the cards... Since a long time.

The current bloodbath shall not be a surprise.

So is it still time to get out of the USD ?

I forgot how they look like....

LaoPo

[PhilHarries]

Yet another speculative doomguessing thread ressurected by the moonrakers. Anyone with a bit of sense has their money diversified. Currently I'm paid in USD and living in Viet Nam where the exchange rate is unchanged. But I have my money in other currencies and if this job came to an end today I could see my way through to retirement without even touching my dollar reserves. What goes up must come down and vice versa, I suppose most forum members aren't old enough to remember the time back in the 70's (or was it 80's) when the GBP hit parity with the dollar. Yes for the guys retired now on a fixed pension, or self funding, in USD it is a worry but why do these gleeful doom merchants have to continually rub it in? It's these same people that would walk past a road accident victim and take pleasure in telling him "shouldn't have been driving so fast".

So in answer to the question "is it still time to get out of US dollars?"

Yes absolutely, send me all your dollars and I will give you a rate of 10,000VND/Dollar but be quick about it the rate is dropping as we "speak".

[HDRIDER]

Hi

Well well well, look like the guy was right,,, and many of you guys was very wrong, very........

[LivinLOS]

And the same ones are still calling us doom merchants..

[britmaveric]

Things are looking up..... I'm making dosh hand over fist. BTW $ will rise, I'm scratching my head over Sterling slide though.

[PattayaParent]

Get out of the $ now.

No thanks, I'll wait until it's back down to 1.48 to the GBP and make myself a few bob on the exchange.

[LivinLOS]

Things are looking up..... I'm making dosh hand over fist. BTW $ will rise, I'm scratching my head over Sterling slide though.

Were you not saying that 20% or so ago Brit ??

Calling anyone (me, tripxcore, mouse) that said the dollar would go down and hit numbers we are and have seen nuts then too ??

While helicopter Ben sits there trying to fix a debt bubble with more debt.. This will continue..

[cm-happy]

The OP is overly dramatic! But he does have a talent for it, save it for a play or a novel.

To quote the great FDR "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself" and the OP.

[cclub75]

And the same ones are still calling us doom merchants..

Of course, you are.

That's the beauty of human behavior, applied to casino and stock markets for instance.

Confronted to a losse, the mind will often deny it...thinking that it's temporary, that it will go up again.

My point : even if the USD index touches 50, some people would still call you a "doom merchant". And will still keep their precious USD bills... "It will go up again ! Not sold, not lost"

[VegasVic]

Hi

Well well well, look like the guy was right,,, and many of you guys was very wrong, very........

I seemed to have missed the run on the U.S. dollar by the forign central banks in the fall of 2006 Also in the summer of 2006 when the OP started this thread he mentioned the bubble in the U.S. stock market, well lets see now the Dow was at around 11,400 when this post was made and despite the 15%+ corection from its recent highs, the Dow currently sits at about 12,100, so its risen from 11,400-12,100 now that doesn't look like a bubble to me! Oh yea then there is the U.S. real estate market bubble, now it didn't exactly take an Einstien to figure out that in the two years previous to the summer of 2006 when many of the overheated real estate markets in the U.S. like Cali, Vegas and Florida had appreciated by 100% or more, that they were due for a correction. Out of the dozen or so predictions in the OP, the only ones that have come to pass is that gold has risen (a temporary phenomenon) and the dollar has weakened a bit further against the Euro and Baht, although the dollar is about the same as it was against the pound and many other currencies. So, well well well it looks like the guy wasn't very right after all. Just for the record, two years from now the Dow will be well north of 15,000, gold will be well south of $700, the chinese (mainland) market will have had its crash by then and will be lower than it currently is, and the U.S. real estate market will have fully recovered, oh yes before I forget, two years from now the U.S.A. will still be the only world superpower

[Naam]

oh yes before I forget, two years from now the U.S.A. will still be the only world superpower

hopefully with a president who's IQ is above 87.5

[Naam]

Out of the dozen or so predictions in the OP, the only ones that have come to pass is that gold has risen (a temporary phenomenon) and the dollar has weakened a bit further against the Euro and Baht

i wouldn't call USDEUR minus 18.40% and USDTHB MINUS 15.75% "weakened a bit further"

[Abrak]

the only ones that have come to pass is that gold has risen (a temporary phenomenon)

Temporary? Gold has outperformed US equities on a ten year view. And done much better on any shorter time horizon.

Dont let facts get in the way of your argument.

[Naam]

the only ones that have come to pass is that gold has risen (a temporary phenomenon)

Temporary? Gold has outperformed US equities on a ten year view. And done much better on any shorter time horizon.

Dont let facts get in the way of your argument.

what assets/currencies have NOT outpassed U.S. equities during the last 10 years... besides the Zimbabwe Dollar

[Abrak]

the only ones that have come to pass is that gold has risen (a temporary phenomenon)

Temporary? Gold has outperformed US equities on a ten year view. And done much better on any shorter time horizon.

Dont let facts get in the way of your argument.

what assets/currencies have NOT outpassed U.S. equities during the last 10 years... besides the Zimbabwe Dollar

You obviously dont live in Thailand!!

[Naam]

the only ones that have come to pass is that gold has risen (a temporary phenomenon)

Temporary? Gold has outperformed US equities on a ten year view. And done much better on any shorter time horizon.

Dont let facts get in the way of your argument.

what assets/currencies have NOT outpassed U.S. equities during the last 10 years... besides the Zimbabwe Dollar

You obviously dont live in Thailand!!

i do, since more than three years. why do you ask?

[Abrak]

the only ones that have come to pass is that gold has risen (a temporary phenomenon)

Temporary? Gold has outperformed US equities on a ten year view. And done much better on any shorter time horizon.

Dont let facts get in the way of your argument.

what assets/currencies have NOT outpassed U.S. equities during the last 10 years... besides the Zimbabwe Dollar

You obviously dont live in Thailand!!

i do, since more than three years. why do you ask?

Well simply you ask what has not outperformed US equities.

Well Thailand for a start (might have done on the 3 year view you have been here but they peaked at 1787 in 1994). Unless you were very lucky and caught either market at the very bottom in the last 15 years.

And the second largest economy in the world - Japan - as another (peaked at 36,000 in 1990).

UK equities too.

Broadly speaking you should look to match nominal GDP in terms of returns - anything better is either very lucky or very skillful. That is why medium term gold holders (I am not one of them) have little to complain about.

Edited January 20, 2008 by Abrak

[Naam]

You obviously dont live in Thailand!!

i do, since more than three years. why do you ask?

Well simply you ask what has not outperformed US equities.

it was more a rhetoric question as i abhor equities in general and U.S. in particular. anybody living outside Thailand and was for the last 10 years fully invested in U.S. equities has lost a lot of money. those who did not lose a lot of money don't have a lot of money to lose

[Naam]

And the second largest economy in the world - Japan - as another (peaked at 36,000 in 1990).

let's talk facts please. the japanese economy did not peak in 1990 at 36,000. you mean of course the japanese stock market index Nikkei225. and that did not peak in 1990 at 36,000 but end of 1989 at >39,000

[Abrak]

it was more a rhetoric question as i abhor equities in general and U.S. in particular. anybody living outside Thailand and was for the last 10 years fully invested in U.S. equities has lost a lot of money. those who did not lose a lot of money don't have a lot of money to lose

Well I never invest in bonds. And virtually only invest in equities and property.

Gold is new to me (I have only been invested for the last 8 months) as I think equities are not the right place to be. I doubt I will be in it in 18 months.

I seriously dont understand bonds so will never invest. I find gold an odd investment. There are the serious gold bugs who believe in the end of capialism - they are clearly nutters. But at the same time there are those people who believe that the US is the be all and end of capitalism (rather like the guy who stated on this thread that as the net worth of the USA is greater than the remains of the world we should invest in US equities). Gold is a good trade - you might not like it and you might be able to find a better a investment - good luck to you.

I reckon it will be difficult to make money this year (unlike last year). If I make 10% I will be chuffed.

[Naam]

I reckon it will be difficult to make money this year (unlike last year). If I make 10% I will be chuffed.

i don't know the meaning of "chuffed" but i guess it applies to me too if i make 10% this year.

[Abrak]

And the second largest economy in the world - Japan - as another (peaked at 36,000 in 1990).

let's talk facts please. the japanese economy did not peak in 1990 at 36,000. you mean of course the japanese stock market index Nikkei225. and that did not peak in 1990 at 36,000 but end of 1989 at >39,000

Come on you really are being pedantic,

One moment you are asking what has underperformed US equities apart from Zimbawe, next you are quibbling about exactly how much Japan has been a complete dog. If you know in the first place, why ask? I am not prepared to google every stockmart for your pleasure.

[Naam]

i am not pedantic Abrak but i like facts. economies are not stock markets. 1990 is not 1989 and 39,000 is not 36,000 and i don't have to google for these facts as they are stored in my (still working) gray cells.

[shochu]

There is something about gold that I gather most here do not know about since it is never mentioned here or in the news or any literature I have come across - but known to those on the inside and also to those that have done their homework.

Also interesting that many of the wealthiest people I know have considerable sums of it in storage. Funny aint it, considering it is such an old relic. I guess it is better to spend millions on a painting since they never fade and are easy to maintain. Try going into any high end store in say Tokyo, or London, or any major city and ask to see the lovely cases of gold bars on sale to investors for hundreds of thousands that many well heeled customers buy. Gee, it couldn't be to protect themselves against something as silly as inflation. Why these people are worth a fortune - why would they want to do that - I mean they have so much money - what is a little inflation to them? Perhaps people who have money they don't need - just want to keep it!

Dear Naam, your comments always amuse me as the simplest words are generally the hardest to achieve and that is why most have heard such phrases many times before but can not for the life of them achieve it. Of course if just anyone could time things right, then it would be of benefit to none. And then how would everyone retire in the Caymen Islands on a compound with a full service staff and a 100 metre yacht.

You by the way from what you have let on regarding your investment choices - you have lost quite a bit of purchasing power in the past few years if we consider the real numbers and not the published numbers. I am sure your investment knowledge affords the luxuries of life such that you have large amounts of surplus funds to squander?

[sonicdragon]

There is something about gold that I gather most here do not know about since it is never mentioned here or in the news or any literature I have come across - but known to those on the inside and also to those that have done their homework.

Also interesting that many of the wealthiest people I know have considerable sums of it in storage. Funny aint it, considering it is such an old relic. I guess it is better to spend millions on a painting since they never fade and are easy to maintain. Try going into any high end store in say Tokyo, or London, or any major city and ask to see the lovely cases of gold bars on sale to investors for hundreds of thousands that many well heeled customers buy. Gee, it couldn't be to protect themselves against something as silly as inflation. Why these people are worth a fortune - why would they want to do that - I mean they have so much money - what is a little inflation to them? Perhaps people who have money they don't need - just want to keep it!

Dear Naam, your comments always amuse me as the simplest words are generally the hardest to achieve and that is why most have heard such phrases many times before but can not for the life of them achieve it. Of course if just anyone could time things right, then it would be of benefit to none. And then how would everyone retire in the Caymen Islands on a compound with a full service staff and a 100 metre yacht.

You by the way from what you have let on regarding your investment choices - you have lost quite a bit of purchasing power in the past few years if we consider the real numbers and not the published numbers. I am sure your investment knowledge affords the luxuries of life such that you have large amounts of surplus funds to squander?

So, are you going to tell us what this revelation is ? I for one am waiting with bated breath. Or is it contained in the rest of your post ? I read it twice, but alas you seem to have moved to other topics after the opening paragraph........don't keep us in suspense.....

[Naam]

Dear Naam, your comments always amuse me as the simplest words are generally the hardest to achieve and that is why most have heard such phrases many times before but can not for the life of them achieve it.

You by the way from what you have let on regarding your investment choices - you have lost quite a bit of purchasing power in the past few years if we consider the real numbers and not the published numbers. I am sure your investment knowledge affords the luxuries of life such that you have large amounts of surplus funds to squander?

i am glad that there is somebody whom i'm amusing friend Shochu. normally people are p*ssed off just hearing my name

as far as loss of purchasing power is concerned i made an interesting discovery when i did my "balance sheet 2007" a couple of weeks ago. fact is that the last time i spent that low an amount of money was 1985 and nobody needs a calculator to find out that this was 22 (in words "twenty-two") years ago. inflation? "WHO or WHAT is inflation?" my financial spreadsheet asks when i feed in fictious percentages of inflation for extrapolation.

also i don't think i am squandering any money by leading a life style which i think my beloved better half and i deserve and which is adequate in relation to my income. i have spent in 2007 ~26% of my income and reinvested (no calculator of course needed) 74%. my best guess is that i will spend in 2008 ~23% of my income and that's why any loss of purchasing power does not concern me at all.