'Perfect storm' for Ebola to spread: virus pioneer

[webfact]

'Perfect storm' for Ebola to spread: virus pioneer
Agence France-Presse
PARIS

Peter Piot, the Belgian scientist who co-discovered the Ebola virus in 1976, on Tuesday said a "perfect storm" in West Africa had given the disease a chance to spread unchecked.

"We have never seen an (Ebola) epidemic on this scale," Piot was quoted by the French daily Liberation as saying.

"In the last six months, we have been witnessing what can be described as a ’perfect storm’ -- everything is there for it to snowball."

The epidemic "is exploding in countries where health services are not functioning, ravaged by decades of civil war," Piot said.

"In addition, the public is deeply suspicious of the authorities. Trust must be restored. Nothing can be done in an epidemic like Ebola if there is no trust."

Piot is former chief of the UN agency UNAids and now director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, one of the world’s foremost centres of expertise on tropical disease.

In the interview, he also castigated "the extraordinary slowness" of international organisations in responding to the outbreak.

"The World Health Organization (WHO) only woke up in July," whereas the epidemic began in December last year and health experts sounded the alarm in early March, said Piot.

"There is now leadership but it is late," he said.

The epidemic has killed 1,427 people out of more than 2,600 known cases of infection, with doctors and nurses paying a particularly heavy price.

The epidemic is focussed on Liberia and Sierra Leone, which were wracked by conflict in the 1990s and the early part of the last decade, and on neighbouring Guinea.

Other cases have been recorded in Nigeria, whose north is hit by unrest, and in the Democratic Republic of Congo, whose east is in the grip of a decades-old conflict and where Ebola was first identified in 1976.

DRC Health Minister Felix Kabanga Numbi last Sunday said that the country’s seventh recorded Ebola outbreak had "no link to (the epidemic) in west Africa".

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Perfect-storm-for-Ebola-to-spread-virus-pioneer-30241823.html


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-08-26

[terryp]

more garbage ..over 6 MILLION people live in the area of the outbreak with 1,500 cases ..its a yearly occurrence there and this is slightly above normal cases....but hey lets all panic and make it into the next world ending plague

[bkkjames]

more garbage ..over 6 MILLION people live in the area of the outbreak with 1,500 cases ..its a yearly occurrence there and this is slightly above normal cases....but hey lets all panic and make it into the next world ending plague

hmm wishing thinking. Even the WHO says the numbers of infected and dead are grossly underestimated.

According to the latest World Health Organization tally, the Ebola outbreak has killed 1,427 people of the 2,615 sickened. The U.N. health agency says that 240 health care workers have been infected with Ebola, calling that an unprecedented number. Half of those infected have died.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033

[Tywais]

.its a yearly occurrence there and this is slightly above normal cases....but hey lets all panic and make it into the next world ending plague

Slightly? You might want to look at the historical breakdown of outbreaks since 1976. This is significantly higher than any other period of time. I would say there is cause for alarm. BTW, those are listed as laboratory confirmed cases. No telling how many more there actually are or have been that had not been reported. Also, it is not a yearly occurrence, from 1980 to 1993 (thirteen years) there were no reported cases. Also, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2013 no reported cases. Timeline of outbreaks.

CDC - Outbreaks Chronology.

[Chicog]

I don't particularly want to pish on his strawberries, but it seems our nurse who went off to Ebola Territory by choice, and without an invitation, and not surprisingly found himself infected, is having a hell of a lot more money and time spent on him than, say, a family in Thailand on holiday, who might get robbed on a train and contact the embassy for assistance.

Or do they badly want an Ebola guinea pig to practice on in London ready for the real thing?

[F430murci]

more garbage ..over 6 MILLION people live in the area of the outbreak with 1,500 cases ..its a yearly occurrence there and this is slightly above normal cases....but hey lets all panic and make it into the next world ending plague

hmm wishing thinking. Even the WHO says the numbers of infected and dead are grossly underestimated.

According to the latest World Health Organization tally, the Ebola outbreak has killed 1,427 people of the 2,615 sickened. The U.N. health agency says that 240 health care workers have been infected with Ebola, calling that an unprecedented number. Half of those infected have died.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033

Your quote does not seem to reflect an under reporting of the numbers impacted in the OP.

Where are you getting the grossly under reported?

The article you link suggest initial over reporting that is later adjusted.

--------

Up to 20 August 1,427 people had been reported as having died from the disease in four countries; Liberia 624, Guinea 406, Sierra Leone 392 and Nigeria five.

. . .

The WHO has published updates on the spread of the virus in each of the countries affected.

The figures given are for "confirmed" deaths. They have occasionally been revised down to take account of changes in the countries' reporting methods, for example by excluding "suspected" cases that had previously been included.

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033

[ripper15]

I would no more believe statistics coming out of such grossly unorganized countries as these than to believe that it will snow a foot deep in Thailand this winter. All indications from non governmental sources that I have seen on non-major (controlled) news sites say the the official figures are under-rated and the problems are much worse. This from people on the ground there or medical experts in contact with those there. Do a google search if you want more info. But lets not panic the public in the interests of social stability and control. I'm am not a chicken little type person but this issue does concern me greatly.

[Asiantravel]

I would no more believe statistics coming out of such grossly unorganized countries as these than to believe that it will snow a foot deep in Thailand this winter. All indications from non governmental sources that I have seen on non-major (controlled) news sites say the the official figures are under-rated and the problems are much worse. This from people on the ground there or medical experts in contact with those there. Do a google search if you want more info. But lets not panic the public in the interests of social stability and control. I'm am not a chicken little type person but this issue does concern me greatly.

nail on the head !

[sanuk711]

I would no more believe statistics coming out of such grossly unorganized countries as these than to believe that it will snow a foot deep in Thailand this winter. All indications from non governmental sources that I have seen on non-major (controlled) news sites say the the official figures are under-rated and the problems are much worse. This from people on the ground there or medical experts in contact with those there. Do a google search if you want more info. But lets not panic the public in the interests of social stability and control. I'm am not a chicken little type person but this issue does concern me greatly.

So it is an organized plot to keep us all in the dark until we die ripper.......

well I for one am going back to putting tin foil in my hat again.........there not going to read my thoughts with their microwaves....

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Baseline health foundation http://jonbarron.org/colds-flus-infectious-diseases/ebola-natural-remedies#.U_yZ3cp-uo8

The mainstream press was doing a pretty good job of reporting the facts and avoiding sensationalism. Any hysteria about Ebola was actually coming from a small number of alternative health websites. Unfortunately, things have changed. Much of the mainstream media has begun to abandon calmness and reason and decided, yet again, that there are better ratings to be found in scaring the bejeebers out of you. And as for that handful of alternative health websites that jumped on the Ebola outbreak when it first hit, well, they've decided to take their hysteria to apocalyptic levels. (We'll talk more about that in a bit.)

For those of you looking to cut to the chase and walk away with a quick sound bite, here it is. There's no reason for hysteria. The current outbreak of Ebola is highly unlikely to ever become a worldwide pandemic. If you live outside of Africa, and are not planning to visit an affected area in the near future, your chances of dying from Ebola are as close to zero as you can get--without actually being zero. You should be far more concerned about dying from lightning strikes (about 73 a year in the US), traffic accidents (about 33,000 fatalities a year), gun shots (30,000), and alcohol abuse (100,000). To put that in perspective: the number of people who have died from Ebola contracted outside of Africa, in the entire history of mankind is zero. To date, no case of Ebola in humans has ever been contracted in the United States. Note: in 1989, there was an outbreak in Reston Virginia, but that was not among people. Research monkeys that were brought to Reston had the disease. They got sick and died. None of the people who worked with the monkeys so much as got sick, let alone died.

So again, those of you looking for the short and sweet on this current Ebola outbreak: that was it.

[emilymat]

I don't particularly want to pish on his strawberries, but it seems our nurse who went off to Ebola Territory by choice, and without an invitation, and not surprisingly found himself infected, is having a hell of a lot more money and time spent on him than, say, a family in Thailand on holiday, who might get robbed on a train and contact the embassy for assistance.

Or do they badly want an Ebola guinea pig to practice on in London ready for the real thing?

It's what the TV call a 'human interest story' designed to make us feel good. Loads of footage of a large cargo plane landing in the dead of night and roads sealed off for a fleet of cops and an ambulance to rush through the streets of London. Reporters camped outside the hospital etc etc.

I wish the guy no ill and I'm glad he's being treated, but what happens if we get several more cases?.

Reminds me a bit of the young Pakistani (?) girl shot by the Taliban who was airlifted to the UK. Fortunately she has recovered.

However your point is valid, but remember the Americans did it first so we couldn't be seen as not being able to.

[ripper15]

Sanuk711, you have your point of view and I have mine. But your lowering the discussion to trivializing my concerns to tin foil plots and other issues having nothing to do with the issue demeans your arguments. It shows a complete disregard for other peoples points of views via negative personal attacks. A closed mind is not going to help the situation at all. I can only hope that they get the outbreak under control as the people living in this part of the world have enough problems. My concerns are far from hysterical to use your words. You are the one making a mountain out of a mole hill.

By the way, this is another extract from the same article you stated.

Another game changer is that previous outbreaks happened outside the cities, in remote communities. The West Africa outbreak has escalated because it moved into the cities where it spread much more rapidly before it was identified.

What we're seeing now is the perfect Ebola storm: ignorance, lack of faith in government and public health authorities, dysfunctional governments, poor isolation practices in health facilities, no accommodation of the families of those infected so that families refuse to bring their loved ones to facilities, rapid spread in a city environment, and--most disturbing of all--proximity to an international airport.

While the 2012 outbreak in Uganda was effectively contained within weeks, the West African outbreak is now in its ninth month and has killed nearly 1,000 people in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria. In the history of Ebola outbreaks, nothing has come close to this in magnitude. Today, as I write this, The World Health Organization, has declared this outbreak to be an international public health emergency that requires an extraordinary response to stop its spread.

[Asiantravel]

I would no more believe statistics coming out of such grossly unorganized countries as these than to believe that it will snow a foot deep in Thailand this winter. All indications from non governmental sources that I have seen on non-major (controlled) news sites say the the official figures are under-rated and the problems are much worse. This from people on the ground there or medical experts in contact with those there. Do a google search if you want more info. But lets not panic the public in the interests of social stability and control. I'm am not a chicken little type person but this issue does concern me greatly.

So it is an organized plot to keep us all in the dark until we die ripper.......

well I for one am going back to putting tin foil in my hat again.........there not going to read my thoughts with their microwaves....

.

.

.

Baseline health foundation http://jonbarron.org/colds-flus-infectious-diseases/ebola-natural-remedies#.U_yZ3cp-uo8

The mainstream press was doing a pretty good job of reporting the facts and avoiding sensationalism. Any hysteria about Ebola was actually coming from a small number of alternative health websites. Unfortunately, things have changed. Much of the mainstream media has begun to abandon calmness and reason and decided, yet again, that there are better ratings to be found in scaring the bejeebers out of you. And as for that handful of alternative health websites that jumped on the Ebola outbreak when it first hit, well, they've decided to take their hysteria to apocalyptic levels. (We'll talk more about that in a bit.)

For those of you looking to cut to the chase and walk away with a quick sound bite, here it is. There's no reason for hysteria. The current outbreak of Ebola is highly unlikely to ever become a worldwide pandemic. If you live outside of Africa, and are not planning to visit an affected area in the near future, your chances of dying from Ebola are as close to zero as you can get--without actually being zero. You should be far more concerned about dying from lightning strikes (about 73 a year in the US), traffic accidents (about 33,000 fatalities a year), gun shots (30,000), and alcohol abuse (100,000). To put that in perspective: the number of people who have died from Ebola contracted outside of Africa, in the entire history of mankind is zero. To date, no case of Ebola in humans has ever been contracted in the United States. Note: in 1989, there was an outbreak in Reston Virginia, but that was not among people. Research monkeys that were brought to Reston had the disease. They got sick and died. None of the people who worked with the monkeys so much as got sick, let alone died.

So again, those of you looking for the short and sweet on this current Ebola outbreak: that was it.

mmmmmmmmm. should we listen to Peter Piot or listen to you……………………?

[ripper15]

No one has to listen to me as I am not a health professional or onsite to know first hand. All I did was state my opinion, end of story. Don't know why anyone else has to make a bigger issue out of it. Jeszzz, what ever happened to free speech.?

[sanuk711]

Sanuk711, you have your point of view and I have mine. But your lowering the discussion to trivializing my concerns to tin foil plots and other issues having nothing to do with the issue demeans your arguments. It shows a complete disregard for other peoples points of views via negative personal attacks.--ripper

.

.

If you feel I am doing that----- Then my apologies ripper.......

[ripper15]

Sanuk711, you have your point of view and I have mine. But your lowering the discussion to trivializing my concerns to tin foil plots and other issues having nothing to do with the issue demeans your arguments. It shows a complete disregard for other peoples points of views via negative personal attacks.--ripper

.

.

If you feel I am doing that----- Then my apologies ripper.......

I may have misconstrued your remarks, so my apologies back at you.

[KevinB]

I currently work in Northern Nigeria and has been able to watch first hand the way the Ebola virus out-break has been milked to death by those that benefit the most. Number one culprit - the World Health Organisation. This outbreak started in December last year and was only declare an "International emergency" in August 2014 - 9 months later. Then by stoking the fire and the panic the WHO got allocated an extra US$ 100 million - a friend works in Geneva as a translator and told me on SKYPE that you could almost see the Executive rubbing their hands together in glee. It is estimated that 65% of this allocation will be "consumed" by internal administration costs. Nice money if you can get it.

Last week a WHO official warned that Nairobi might become a problem because it is an International air travel hub. Korean Air immediately banned flights from Nairobi - but there hasn't been a single case of anyone in Kenya being in contact with an Ebola sufferer and not a single case of any infections. The joke is East Africa is thousand of miles from West Africa and more flights head from West Africa to Europe than across Africa. Equally amusing Kenya is next door to Uganda where there have been 4 outbreaks on Ebola in the last year (all unpublicised) and every one of them has been controlled in the villages where the outbreak occurred. That is because this is the site of most of the original Ebola infections since the 1970s and the health services has got used to it and how to deal with it.

In Nigeria an American passport-holder of Liberian origin flew into Lagos after visiting his sick sister in Liberia with the disease - he died and took 4 health workers who treated him in a private hospital with him - that's it - 5 deaths (including his) in a City of 22 million. One of the nurses broke out of quarantine and went home - a 500km bus trip. Nigerian officials traced her home and brought her back - all those in contact with her (on the bus and in here home town) were put into quarantine none of them has proved to be positive and all have now been released. About 6 others have shown some positive reaction and has been monitored and have now been released. The country is on a state of alert and coping quite well - in the meantime some organisations have banned travel to Nigeria - it's a joke - it's estimated that in the teaming megalopolis of Lagos 5 people die every 10 minutes in traffic related accidents - ever heard a warning about not driving across the City???.

The other Winners - pharmaceutical companies which are being allowed to test they new drugs on patients in West Africa before they have been even tested on animals - REMEMBER we are talking about 2500 people infected in West Africa - out of a population of 250 million - 175 million of them are Nigerians - where less than 20 people have been in contact with a sufferer of the disease.

REMEMBER SARS back a few years ago various Government spent US$3.2 billion buying up supplies of Tamiflu and prepositioning them on the advice of the WHO and to the benefit of the manufacturing companies - there were eventually only 600 - 800 possible cases - hardly any deaths and the medicine had a shelf-life of 6 months and got thrown away - nice money if you can get it.

Ebola is real hard to catch - a person actually has to vomit on you to make sure - it is not airborne - most of the deaths in the 3 States where the outbreak occurred (Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea) caught the disease when they got together for a funeral - where it is traditional to wash the corpse(inside and out) and for relatives to lay a hand on the body to "prove" they were not responsible for summoning the evil spirits that caused the death.

Please don't over-react - REMEMBER the story of the boy who cried WOLF WOLF and when there really was a problem not one came to help.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

In the 80s it was Nuclear War

In the 90s it was HIV

In the 00s it was SARs

In the 10s It is Ebola

Please excuse me for not running to my bunker just yet!

[Asiantravel]

In the 80s it was Nuclear War

In the 90s it was HIV

In the 00s it was SARs

In the 10s It is Ebola

Please excuse me for not running to my bunker just yet!

actually, it's more about not trusting what the governments are going to say (based on their track record to date on many other issues) rather than how easy or otherwise is to catch the disease or how far it will spread. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

[hawker9000]

The thing that worries me the most about this is the possibility of Muslim terrorists finding a way to make use of it.

[wooloomooloo]

The thing that worries me the most about this is the possibility of Muslim terrorists finding a way to make use of it.

Wishful thinking as it's about as serious as a boil on my bum in the grand scheme of things.

Think Spanish Flu and you're getting somewhere in epidemics / pandemics.

[rhythmworx]

Thai roads/drivers have probably killed more people since this new outbreak.

Not seen or heard of any quarantine there.

[MJP]

Thai roads/drivers have probably killed more people since this new outbreak.

Not seen or heard of any quarantine there.

How many have been killed by MRSA in this time?

[rhythmworx]

Thai roads/drivers have probably killed more people since this new outbreak.

Not seen or heard of any quarantine there.

How many have been killed by MRSA in this time?

In Thailand not as many as the UK.

[MJP]

Thai roads/drivers have probably killed more people since this new outbreak.

Not seen or heard of any quarantine there.

How many have been killed by MRSA in this time?

In Thailand not as many as the UK.

Precisely. MRSA is only different to Ebola in that it actually kills many more people. But we're used to it.

[rhythmworx]

My point was to quarantine the Thai drivers of any road vehicle over 50cc. They have killed way more people than Ebola and MRSA put together.

They are infected with something to drive the way they do.

[MJP]

My point was to quarantine the Thai drivers of any road vehicle over 50cc. They have killed way more people than Ebola and MRSA put together.

They are infected with something to drive the way they do.

Have a look at how many are killed by MRSA each year. It's surprising.

[hawker9000]

The thing that worries me the most about this is the possibility of Muslim terrorists finding a way to make use of it.

Wishful thinking as it's about as serious as a boil on my bum in the grand scheme of things.

Think Spanish Flu and you're getting somewhere in epidemics / pandemics.

The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of only abou 2.5%. While much higher than other flu strains (on the order of 0.1%), that's nowhere near Ebola's mortaility rate (for the current outbreak) of nearly 55%! Up to 90% among the untreated! It's only the very low rate of transmisson (which is several orders of magnitude higher for influenza) that's holding down the current death toll. 'Just don't want to go down this road any futher...

[Preman]

In the 80s it was Nuclear War

In the 90s it was HIV

In the 00s it was SARs

In the 10s It is Ebola

Please excuse me for not running to my bunker just yet!

actually, it's more about not trusting what the governments are going to say (based on their track record to date on many other issues) rather than how easy or otherwise is to catch the disease or how far it will spread. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

To: AnotherOneAmerican

I understand what your point is, but for people who have been on the receiving end of any of these diseases - your view is not so easily dismissed. There was no nuclear war in the 80's - was there.

Your point is about people being alarmists, paranoid etc etc.

HIV was real and still is. SARs. It was real. I was one who actually contracted it by way of a flight from Hong Kong to LA in 2003. (yes, one of those confirmed cases).

So, - I for one had a first hand experience of how easy these 'nasty diseases' - can actually be transmitted.

From that experience and the intense memories of what I went through, - I just pray that Ebola does not move into the international arena.

People always seem to think, - "it can only happen to other people". I say bullsh....

No one is saying 'run to your bunker', - but get real and be aware what is potentially a big problem if it is not contained.

Personally, I agree the comments of Asiantravel (above).

[belg]

the scary thing about the western world, is that many diseases that were eradicated true vaccination, is getting a way back "thanks" to import of no education 3rd world economical refugees that heard that in the west, once you arrive there, you get everything for free and the stupid locals works and pays for it all

[Asiantravel]

Does anyone see any correlation between this disease still being out of control with an increase in the number of leading financial commentators expecting another major stock-market correction worse even than 2008 ?

I can't think of any other example of a major disease outbreak occurring simultaneously with global financial turbulence.

(Reuters) - The worst ever Ebola outbreak is causing enormous damage to West African economies as foreign businessmen quit the region, the African Development Bank said, while a leading medical charity branded the international response "entirely inadequate."

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/27/us-health-ebola-idINKBN0GQ17920140827