Investing 300k baht for 15+ years.

[whaleboneman]

I actually trust this big Asian firm more than the bank in Laos. Everything is a risk. You want to keep it minimal. 6% return a month is more than 60% annually. They invest it for you.. I'm joining up because I seen it with my own eyes. The return and bank statement. A lady invested $50000 she is receiving $4000 every month. Above 30k is 8% return monthly. No black jack gambling. All legal

this is called a ponzi scheme. give me your money and i'll give you some of it back. hahaha

[ericthai]

You might want to look at a life insurance policy. Not sure about Thailand but check into a policy that will allow you to take a loan out against the policy when you are ready.

If you look at the premiums paid in this will provide a good return. Another option would be an annuity. There are many different types of annuities fixed, variable etc.

I would try and find a financial planner. Maybe speak to a financial planner in your home country.

[onlycw]

What is the FMV of land? I've noticed obscene prices in the last few years. Totally unrealistic IMHO.

OTOH, there are people who turn to loan sharks demanding 5% a month. Years later,without loan repayment, they still owe 100% of the principle. That's crazy! They would fare better dumping the land for say 25% FMV than doing that... Try to find a motivated seller who needs cash pdq.

Me, I would buy some REIT in the USA which's paying >8%. UMH maybe - operating mobile home parks. No way would i leave money here for the long term. YMMV, but I certainly would look at options outside of Thailand!

[akentryan]

The best rate I know of at the moment is at Krung Thai at 3.44% for 44 months. The offer may expire on the 31st but they usually have a similar fixed deposit. OUB was second at 3.25% for 36 months. Monthly interest payments on both. File a Thai tax return and get the 15% tax refunded at year-end. Hope you are not an American as the new reporting requirements are being enforced at most banks.

[moe666]

Stock market I have turned 300,000 into 600,000 in 4 years. CPALL, BTS, CPN, BGN are very good stocks of big companies, I am up 29 per cent on BGN in 4 months this year

[moe666]

I actually trust this big Asian firm more than the bank in Laos. Everything is a risk. You want to keep it minimal. 6% return a month is more than 60% annually. They invest it for you.. I'm joining up because I seen it with my own eyes. The return and bank statement. A lady invested $50000 she is receiving $4000 every month. Above 30k is 8% return monthly. No black jack gambling. All legal

this is called a ponzi scheme. give me your money and i'll give you some of it back. hahaha

I thought Madoff was still in jail

[54321]

land or shares are in my mind the best options for long term investments like yours, but I would be more inclined to buy a couple of shares here in Thailand and a couple in your home country (so there is a little balance of risk as many say thai stocks are overvalued but who knows). I personally would avoid land for no reason other than I am not 100% conversant with the rules and regs and risks

Money in the bank is more or less a waste of time, it will still be there when you need it, but it wont be worth more than it is now (maybe worth even less)

[Naam]

I actually trust this big Asian firm more than the bank in Laos. Everything is a risk. You want to keep it minimal. 6% return a month is more than 60% annually. They invest it for you.. I'm joining up because I seen it with my own eyes. The return and bank statement. A lady invested $50000 she is receiving $4000 every month. Above 30k is 8% return monthly. No black jack gambling. All legal

[jpinx]

Laughable indeed, but I know of some people who join these schemes and manage to get out with their gains just before the scheme crashes. Then the self-delusion is complete and they promote similar schemes with first hand accounts of success.... No wonder the schemes abound....

[nanapong]

A couple of things: NEVER BUY PROPERTY IN THAILAND and gold is a terrible investment. Savings accounts in Thai banks pay poorly, usually not even keeping up with inflation.

The mutual funds mentioned by Ayg above are the way to go.

Gold is a terrible investment. Not over the last 10 years my friend so how can you say such rubbish. Considering the state of World affairs at the moment i'd be very shy to put anything in any Mutual Fund. The Fed continues to print billions simply because the US is bankrupt , Europe on the brink of collapse , a spot of trouble in the Middle East again and the Ruskies invading the Ukraine. On top of all that stock markets are breaking record highs. Be sure the only winners will be the Banksters , the surfs will lose everything.

Buy Gold and bury it might not be a bad idea.

[Naam]

Laughable indeed, but I know of some people who join these schemes and manage to get out with their gains just before the scheme crashes. Then the self-delusion is complete and they promote similar schemes with first hand accounts of success.... No wonder the schemes abound....

in the beginning there are always winners. a mandatory requirement to spread the gospel of the scheme to attract others who will then lose all.

"big asian firm which pays 6%, respectively 8% a month" = my àrse!

[jpinx]

Laughable indeed, but I know of some people who join these schemes and manage to get out with their gains just before the scheme crashes. Then the self-delusion is complete and they promote similar schemes with first hand accounts of success.... No wonder the schemes abound....

in the beginning there are always winners. a mandatory requirement to spread the gospel of the scheme to attract others who will then lose all.

"big asian firm which pays 6%, respectively 8% a month" = my àrse!

So the policy is:- watch for a new scheme, get in quick and get out again with your winnings at the first opportunity

Edited to add --

Rinse and repeat

Edited August 31, 2014 by jpinx

[Asiantravel]

Me thinks you are being a little bit sarcastic. No? Anyway I have lots of money I want to lose so count me in.

Den

OK, you are IN!!!!

Well done, this could be the best financial investment you have ever made.

I'll PM you with my bank account details, indeed anybody else who wants to join in can PM me.

I offer a 100% honesty guarantee.

You will see absolutely nothing back.

But rest assured, your place in heaven will have my total guarantee. You can come and haunt me forever if it doesn't quite work out.

I would just like to clarify why does the domain name on your website end with .ng ?

[SongSomSoda]

Buy 300k in Bitcoins

Such Wow in 15 years

[Asiantravel]

Should add, that my wife's idea of investing for the kids is as mentioned buying land. She bought some land in her name from someone who lives near her parents, and says it will belong to the girls when she's gone! Being Thai, she understands land as an investment. The message being that's what she's comfortable with.

Personally I'm not a big fan of land, as it's illiquid and can't always be sold when you want. Plus more work to generate an income from it if you want to do more than just hope for capital gains. I just let her get on with it though, as she's comfortable and happy with it. Anyway it diversifies our assets.

Cheers

Fletch

Okay, but choosing between mutual funds and/or stocks and shares versus land which do you think is better , taking into account increasingly poor global economic fundamentals and increased geopolitical risk (or even 9/11 event ) and the effect of this over 15 years?

Incidentally it's not the risk of something causing a severe market downturn that I'm talking about because particularly over 15 years its not " if " but " when "? But it is more the risk that once there is a downturn this time that the fundamentals would no longer be there to support a recovery to anywhere near the existing market levels?

[jpinx]

Should add, that my wife's idea of investing for the kids is as mentioned buying land. She bought some land in her name from someone who lives near her parents, and says it will belong to the girls when she's gone! Being Thai, she understands land as an investment. The message being that's what she's comfortable with.

Personally I'm not a big fan of land, as it's illiquid and can't always be sold when you want. Plus more work to generate an income from it if you want to do more than just hope for capital gains. I just let her get on with it though, as she's comfortable and happy with it. Anyway it diversifies our assets.

Cheers

Fletch

Okay, but choosing between mutual funds and/or stocks and shares versus land which do you think is better , taking into account increasingly poor global economic fundamentals and increased geopolitical risk (or even 9/11 event ) and the effect of this over 15 years?

Incidentally it's not the risk of something causing a severe market downturn that I'm talking about because particularly over 15 years its not " if " but " when "? But it is more the risk that once there is a downturn this time that the fundamentals would no longer be there to support a recovery to anywhere near the existing market levels?

Thai people invest in land in Thailand very long term - not just 15 years. They also invest in gold for medium term, like 15 years, but I hear many losing out in that market. School/University fees in the future need something more certain to just keep pace with the rate of increase of those fees. If I was in your shoes I'd look at the history of fees and plan accordingly...

The fundamentals are fundamental -- they will always be there The trick with any "investment" - as opposed to "deposit" - is to invest in whatever you are happy with and then time your exit to perfection ! If you buy land now there might be a 3 - 5 year slump in land prices just at the crucial time in 15 years when you need your money out. This is the nub of any investment -- timing. Having a defined exit date far in the future really makes it a lottery, whereas a flexible exit date will allow you to reap the maximum. Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered and all was well again as along as you could tighten your belt and tough it out.

[denby45]

Laughable indeed, but I know of some people who join these schemes and manage to get out with their gains just before the scheme crashes. Then the self-delusion is complete and they promote similar schemes with first hand accounts of success.... No wonder the schemes abound....

Yes that is a fact and I agree that you can risk it if you want. However you don't really know when they will pull the evacuate and run trigger so it's still very risky. Also this would not be possible for this scheme as you are locked in for a specific period and not able to close your position when you want making it even more risky.

Den

[denby45]

Denby45 that's weird I actually have seen the honesty award it was on there, how the hell did you remove it...photo shop...lol

Also if it's such a hoax why are they all making 5-8 % per month. I have seen them log in. I have seen their statements. .. While we are sarcastically laughing at them, they are collecting... you will not find one customer here or anywhere who registered invested, and lost or not received the targeted amount. ...hmm I wonder why. Come smart butt where are all these thousands of investors who have lost all their money. I'm sure you can find a blog out their, or just make one up.

Sorry isaray you are correct. I apologize for trying to interfere with your plans. Please feel free to invest all your money in this scheme. I wish you good luck, you will need it.

Den

[jpinx]

Denby45 that's weird I actually have seen the honesty award it was on there, how the hell did you remove it...photo shop...lol

Also if it's such a hoax why are they all making 5-8 % per month. I have seen them log in. I have seen their statements. .. While we are sarcastically laughing at them, they are collecting... you will not find one customer here or anywhere who registered invested, and lost or not received the targeted amount. ...hmm I wonder why. Come smart butt where are all these thousands of investors who have lost all their money. I'm sure you can find a blog out their, or just make one up.

Where's the link to this scheme ? II like to see things with my own eyes

[Ridercnx808]

Sin stocks have excellent returns.

[jpinx]

Sin stocks have excellent returns.

Maybe you have a link to support your statement ?

[Asiantravel]

Should add, that my wife's idea of investing for the kids is as mentioned buying land. She bought some land in her name from someone who lives near her parents, and says it will belong to the girls when she's gone! Being Thai, she understands land as an investment. The message being that's what she's comfortable with.

Personally I'm not a big fan of land, as it's illiquid and can't always be sold when you want. Plus more work to generate an income from it if you want to do more than just hope for capital gains. I just let her get on with it though, as she's comfortable and happy with it. Anyway it diversifies our assets.

Cheers

Fletch

Okay, but choosing between mutual funds and/or stocks and shares versus land which do you think is better , taking into account increasingly poor global economic fundamentals and increased geopolitical risk (or even 9/11 event ) and the effect of this over 15 years?

Incidentally it's not the risk of something causing a severe market downturn that I'm talking about because particularly over 15 years its not " if " but " when "? But it is more the risk that once there is a downturn this time that the fundamentals would no longer be there to support a recovery to anywhere near the existing market levels?

Thai people invest in land in Thailand very long term - not just 15 years. They also invest in gold for medium term, like 15 years, but I hear many losing out in that market. School/University fees in the future need something more certain to just keep pace with the rate of increase of those fees. If I was in your shoes I'd look at the history of fees and plan accordingly...

The fundamentals are fundamental -- they will always be there The trick with any "investment" - as opposed to "deposit" - is to invest in whatever you are happy with and then time your exit to perfection ! If you buy land now there might be a 3 - 5 year slump in land prices just at the crucial time in 15 years when you need your money out. This is the nub of any investment -- timing. Having a defined exit date far in the future really makes it a lottery, whereas a flexible exit date will allow you to reap the maximum. Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered and all was well again as along as you could tighten your belt and tough it out.

" Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered"

no they they didnt ?

[jpinx]

Should add, that my wife's idea of investing for the kids is as mentioned buying land. She bought some land in her name from someone who lives near her parents, and says it will belong to the girls when she's gone! Being Thai, she understands land as an investment. The message being that's what she's comfortable with.

Personally I'm not a big fan of land, as it's illiquid and can't always be sold when you want. Plus more work to generate an income from it if you want to do more than just hope for capital gains. I just let her get on with it though, as she's comfortable and happy with it. Anyway it diversifies our assets.

Cheers

Fletch

Okay, but choosing between mutual funds and/or stocks and shares versus land which do you think is better , taking into account increasingly poor global economic fundamentals and increased geopolitical risk (or even 9/11 event ) and the effect of this over 15 years?

Incidentally it's not the risk of something causing a severe market downturn that I'm talking about because particularly over 15 years its not " if " but " when "? But it is more the risk that once there is a downturn this time that the fundamentals would no longer be there to support a recovery to anywhere near the existing market levels?

Thai people invest in land in Thailand very long term - not just 15 years. They also invest in gold for medium term, like 15 years, but I hear many losing out in that market. School/University fees in the future need something more certain to just keep pace with the rate of increase of those fees. If I was in your shoes I'd look at the history of fees and plan accordingly...

The fundamentals are fundamental -- they will always be there The trick with any "investment" - as opposed to "deposit" - is to invest in whatever you are happy with and then time your exit to perfection ! If you buy land now there might be a 3 - 5 year slump in land prices just at the crucial time in 15 years when you need your money out. This is the nub of any investment -- timing. Having a defined exit date far in the future really makes it a lottery, whereas a flexible exit date will allow you to reap the maximum. Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered and all was well again as along as you could tighten your belt and tough it out.

" Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered"

no they they didnt ?

short term graphs of indexes or indicators is no reflection on how specific investments are doing.

[JacChang]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Thai people invest in land in Thailand very long term - not just 15 years. They also invest in gold for medium term, like 15 years, but I hear many losing out in that market. School/University fees in the future need something more certain to just keep pace with the rate of increase of those fees. If I was in your shoes I'd look at the history of fees and plan accordingly...

The fundamentals are fundamental -- they will always be there The trick with any "investment" - as opposed to "deposit" - is to invest in whatever you are happy with and then time your exit to perfection ! If you buy land now there might be a 3 - 5 year slump in land prices just at the crucial time in 15 years when you need your money out. This is the nub of any investment -- timing. Having a defined exit date far in the future really makes it a lottery, whereas a flexible exit date will allow you to reap the maximum. Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered and all was well again as along as you could tighten your belt and tough it out.

" Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered" alt=blink.png>

no they they didnt ?

short term graphs of indexes or indicators is no reflection on how specific investments are doing.

Just to be sure, I had to verify his posted graph. A simple google shows that it is not up to date. The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs". An interesting note, the past 5 years graph, shows a consistent earnings over 50%. And remember it's an index, which means consist of 80 bad apples and 20 good apples. Investors know to get those 20 good apples, so our earnings are way better than 50% claimed by indexes. Indexes prove nothing, it's just overall.

[Asiantravel]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Thai people invest in land in Thailand very long term - not just 15 years. They also invest in gold for medium term, like 15 years, but I hear many losing out in that market. School/University fees in the future need something more certain to just keep pace with the rate of increase of those fees. If I was in your shoes I'd look at the history of fees and plan accordingly...

The fundamentals are fundamental -- they will always be there The trick with any "investment" - as opposed to "deposit" - is to invest in whatever you are happy with and then time your exit to perfection ! If you buy land now there might be a 3 - 5 year slump in land prices just at the crucial time in 15 years when you need your money out. This is the nub of any investment -- timing. Having a defined exit date far in the future really makes it a lottery, whereas a flexible exit date will allow you to reap the maximum. Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered and all was well again as along as you could tighten your belt and tough it out.

" Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered" alt=blink.png>

no they they didnt ?

short term graphs of indexes or indicators is no reflection on how specific investments are doing.

Just to be sure, I had to verify his posted graph. A simple google shows that it is not up to date. The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs". An interesting note, the past 5 years graph, shows a consistent earnings over 50%. And remember it's an index, which means consist of 80 bad apples and 20 good apples. Investors know to get those 20 good apples, so our earnings are way better than 50% claimed by indexes. Indexes prove nothing, it's just overall.

" The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs".

erm.....What am I missing here?

The Nikkei 225 Hit an all-time high of 38,957.00 on December 29th, 1989. (That is, the peak shown on the chart in post-84)

Today, that index is sitting at 15,424.59.

It hasn't even recovered 50% of its loss yet over more 20 years? And that is despite an incredible amount of stimulus

[JacChang]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Okay, but choosing between mutual funds and/or stocks and shares versus land which do you think is better , taking into account increasingly poor global economic fundamentals and increased geopolitical risk (or even 9/11 event ) and the effect of this over 15 years?

Incidentally it's not the risk of something causing a severe market downturn that I'm talking about because particularly over 15 years its not " if " but " when "? But it is more the risk that once there is a downturn this time that the fundamentals would no longer be there to support a recovery to anywhere near the existing market levels?

If I could choose, it would still be stocks over land. Increasingly poor global economic fundamentals is a perception only with regards to specific or overall industry. However, real investors, have many cards to play with. Even at such bad times like these that you have stated, I still have many wonderful investments with double digit growth rates as we speak. Liquidity is my power. And that power overcomes the land. I can switch my industry in a blink of an eye from financials, to energy, to real estate funds, to biotechnology, to whatever. However your land is land, stuck there until a buyer comes. Even in a crash, you are nervous without a buyer, as I like to put it "stuck".

There is too much emphasis on risk. I would like to say, "There is no risk or little risk, if there is knowledge and skill." Most people think investment is like a wall. What's an investment? Uhm... it's an investment...... makes money but there's risk.

Wrong. It's businesses, actual real earning businesses. If I own all the supermarkets in this country, tell me, what's the risk? Is there a crash? If there is, will I be poor? Are my supermarkets making me money (dividends) ?

The next question to ask is, which businesses do I want to be in? Just like a chameleon, when banks are good, I'm the largest bank shareholder, when I sense a shift that banks are doing poorly (like this year), I shift into other industries. It's no guessing game. It's pure financials.

Most people want to wait, sensing a crash will happen. Do I think a crash will happen? Yes. Will I sell all my stocks? No. Will I buy more when stocks crash? Of course.

My assets? First few years: Makro Second few years: Advanc Third few years: TTW Fourth few years: BTS

1 million --> 3 million ---> 8 million ----> 15 million = And so on. It's a business. I accumulate more and more. I could care less if other investors decide to crash the market, guess what? I'll accumulate even more. Till one day, we own all the shares in this world, let's see who is crying.

Go ahead and tell me how wise you are financially, and the fear of risks. Go ahead. Men make actions, judge the situation, and then speak. Do not fear and speak before even actually going the first step. Success is right in front of your eyes. Those who never invested, will never invest and will say negative things. Those who have invested and failed, will also say negative things and never blame themselves for the fault and the desire to correct. Those who have invested and are successful, continue to learn, continue to improve, continue to obtain new knowledge, and remain prosperous and rich. Yours to choose. Please "continue to be afraid, say stocks are bad, time deposits are best, say a crash is coming". You will live in the same position each year. I have made my choice and going up the ladder.

[JacChang]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

" Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered" alt=blink.png>

no they they didnt ?

short term graphs of indexes or indicators is no reflection on how specific investments are doing.

Just to be sure, I had to verify his posted graph. A simple google shows that it is not up to date. The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs". An interesting note, the past 5 years graph, shows a consistent earnings over 50%. And remember it's an index, which means consist of 80 bad apples and 20 good apples. Investors know to get those 20 good apples, so our earnings are way better than 50% claimed by indexes. Indexes prove nothing, it's just overall.

" The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs". alt=blink.png>

erm.....What am I missing here? alt=ermm.gif>

The Nikkei 225 Hit an all-time high of 38,957.00 on December 29th, 1989. (That is, the peak shown on the chart in post-84)

Today, that index is sitting at 15,424.59.

It hasn't even recovered 50% of its loss yet over more 20 years? And that is despite an incredible amount of stimulus alt=huh.png>

Wow 1989, do you wish to travel back in time and purchase your shares?

Do I care what monkeys ate during those times?

Investing is a forward looking perspective. We are not historians, you could go back to 1950 all you want, that will not make you any money. Investors are only interested in today, and how it will affect tomorrow, and the potential income the future will bring. But that doesn't mean we ignore history completely, the max we go back is 10-15 years, the rest is irrelevant.

For your history interest, I opened google max years for Nikkei.

1999 16,000

Now 15,400 Not bad, even the most unlucky inexperienced investor buying at the tip, has almost broken even if he bought an index fund, not to mention the dividends.

For my personal interest, Nikkei 5 years.

2009 10,000

Now 15,400

That's what I am talking about. That's what we have been doing, money flowing in. Go ahead, keep proving to yourself how bad it is, the only person's mind you can convince is yourself and like-minded others. I'll keep earning, and you? Choice is yours. (Yes stocks are bad, very scary, stay away!)

[Asiantravel]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Okay, but choosing between mutual funds and/or stocks and shares versus land which do you think is better , taking into account increasingly poor global economic fundamentals and increased geopolitical risk (or even 9/11 event ) and the effect of this over 15 years?

Incidentally it's not the risk of something causing a severe market downturn that I'm talking about because particularly over 15 years its not " if " but " when "? But it is more the risk that once there is a downturn this time that the fundamentals would no longer be there to support a recovery to anywhere near the existing market levels?

If I could choose, it would still be stocks over land. Increasingly poor global economic fundamentals is a perception only with regards to specific or overall industry. However, real investors, have many cards to play with. Even at such bad times like these that you have stated, I still have many wonderful investments with double digit growth rates as we speak. Liquidity is my power. And that power overcomes the land. I can switch my industry in a blink of an eye from financials, to energy, to real estate funds, to biotechnology, to whatever. However your land is land, stuck there until a buyer comes. Even in a crash, you are nervous without a buyer, as I like to put it "stuck".

There is too much emphasis on risk. I would like to say, "There is no risk or little risk, if there is knowledge and skill." Most people think investment is like a wall. What's an investment? Uhm... it's an investment...... makes money but there's risk.

Wrong. It's businesses, actual real earning businesses. If I own all the supermarkets in this country, tell me, what's the risk? Is there a crash? If there is, will I be poor? Are my supermarkets making me money (dividends) ?

The next question to ask is, which businesses do I want to be in? Just like a chameleon, when banks are good, I'm the largest bank shareholder, when I sense a shift that banks are doing poorly (like this year), I shift into other industries. It's no guessing game. It's pure financials.

Most people want to wait, sensing a crash will happen. Do I think a crash will happen? Yes. Will I sell all my stocks? No. Will I buy more when stocks crash? Of course.

My assets? First few years: Makro Second few years: Advanc Third few years: TTW Fourth few years: BTS

1 million --> 3 million ---> 8 million ----> 15 million = And so on. It's a business. I accumulate more and more. I could care less if other investors decide to crash the market, guess what? I'll accumulate even more. Till one day, we own all the shares in this world, let's see who is crying.

Go ahead and tell me how wise you are financially, and the fear of risks. Go ahead. Men make actions, judge the situation, and then speak. Do not fear and speak before even actually going the first step. Success is right in front of your eyes. Those who never invested, will never invest and will say negative things. Those who have invested and failed, will also say negative things and never blame themselves for the fault and the desire to correct. Those who have invested and are successful, continue to learn, continue to improve, continue to obtain new knowledge, and remain prosperous and rich. Yours to choose. Please "continue to be afraid, say stocks are bad, time deposits are best, say a crash is coming". You will live in the same position each year. I have made my choice and going up the ladder.

But people who think the way you do and are usually very confident that just because things have happened a certain way in the past you can safely assume things are going keep happening the same way going forward. But with abysmal economic conditions around the world and geopolitical risks.

The world is changing incredibly fast now and becoming incredibly unstable.

I might be more convinced if you could explain why that same scenario with the Nikkei in 1990 not even recovering 50% yet over more 20 years wouldn't apply to the Dow Jones today?

[Asiantravel]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

short term graphs of indexes or indicators is no reflection on how specific investments are doing.

Just to be sure, I had to verify his posted graph. A simple google shows that it is not up to date. The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs". An interesting note, the past 5 years graph, shows a consistent earnings over 50%. And remember it's an index, which means consist of 80 bad apples and 20 good apples. Investors know to get those 20 good apples, so our earnings are way better than 50% claimed by indexes. Indexes prove nothing, it's just overall.

" The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs". alt=blink.png>

erm.....What am I missing here? alt=ermm.gif>

The Nikkei 225 Hit an all-time high of 38,957.00 on December 29th, 1989. (That is, the peak shown on the chart in post-84)

Today, that index is sitting at 15,424.59.

It hasn't even recovered 50% of its loss yet over more 20 years? And that is despite an incredible amount of stimulus alt=huh.png>

Wow 1989, do you wish to travel back in time and purchase your shares?

Do I care what monkeys ate during those times?

Investing is a forward looking perspective. We are not historians, you could go back to 1950 all you want, that will not make you any money. Investors are only interested in today, and how it will affect tomorrow, and the potential income the future will bring. But that doesn't mean we ignore history completely, the max we go back is 10-15 years, the rest is irrelevant.

For your history interest, I opened google max years for Nikkei.

1999 16,000

Now 15,400 Not bad, even the most unlucky inexperienced investor buying at the tip, has almost broken even if he bought an index fund, not to mention the dividends.

For my personal interest, Nikkei 5 years.

2009 10,000

Now 15,400

That's what I am talking about. That's what we have been doing, money flowing in. Go ahead, keep proving to yourself how bad it is, the only person's mind you can convince is yourself and like-minded others. I'll keep earning, and you? Choice is yours. (Yes stocks are bad, very scary, stay away!)

“ 2009 10,000

Now 15,400 “

absolutely hilarious. That's only because Japan has spent trillions of dollars in stimulus. Same story as USA

Even if its 1989 it is still relevant because stock market investors claim it is safe to simply buy and sit on your investment long-term?

If someone was as bullish as you are now in 1989 had started investing in the Nikkei in 1989 as of today they would still be 50% poorer?

Edited August 31, 2014 by Asiantravel

[JacChang]

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If I could choose, it would still be stocks over land. Increasingly poor global economic fundamentals is a perception only with regards to specific or overall industry. However, real investors, have many cards to play with. Even at such bad times like these that you have stated, I still have many wonderful investments with double digit growth rates as we speak. Liquidity is my power. And that power overcomes the land. I can switch my industry in a blink of an eye from financials, to energy, to real estate funds, to biotechnology, to whatever. However your land is land, stuck there until a buyer comes. Even in a crash, you are nervous without a buyer, as I like to put it "stuck".

There is too much emphasis on risk. I would like to say, "There is no risk or little risk, if there is knowledge and skill." Most people think investment is like a wall. What's an investment? Uhm... it's an investment...... makes money but there's risk.

Wrong. It's businesses, actual real earning businesses. If I own all the supermarkets in this country, tell me, what's the risk? Is there a crash? If there is, will I be poor? Are my supermarkets making me money (dividends) ?

The next question to ask is, which businesses do I want to be in? Just like a chameleon, when banks are good, I'm the largest bank shareholder, when I sense a shift that banks are doing poorly (like this year), I shift into other industries. It's no guessing game. It's pure financials.

Most people want to wait, sensing a crash will happen. Do I think a crash will happen? Yes. Will I sell all my stocks? No. Will I buy more when stocks crash? Of course.

My assets? First few years: Makro Second few years: Advanc Third few years: TTW Fourth few years: BTS

1 million --> 3 million ---> 8 million ----> 15 million = And so on. It's a business. I accumulate more and more. I could care less if other investors decide to crash the market, guess what? I'll accumulate even more. Till one day, we own all the shares in this world, let's see who is crying.

Go ahead and tell me how wise you are financially, and the fear of risks. Go ahead. Men make actions, judge the situation, and then speak. Do not fear and speak before even actually going the first step. Success is right in front of your eyes. Those who never invested, will never invest and will say negative things. Those who have invested and failed, will also say negative things and never blame themselves for the fault and the desire to correct. Those who have invested and are successful, continue to learn, continue to improve, continue to obtain new knowledge, and remain prosperous and rich. Yours to choose. Please "continue to be afraid, say stocks are bad, time deposits are best, say a crash is coming". You will live in the same position each year. I have made my choice and going up the ladder.

But people who think the way you do and are usually very confident that just because things have happened a certain way in the past you can safely assume things are going keep happening the same way going forward. But with abysmal economic conditions around the world and geopolitical risks.

The world is changing incredibly fast now and becoming incredibly unstable.

I might be more convinced if you could explain why that same scenario with the Nikkei in 1990 not even recovering 50% yet over more 20 years wouldn't apply to the Dow Jones today?

Like I've said, confidence is one thing. While we use the past to determine a company's behavior, we never use the past to predict the future. We just current growth and earnings to see the trend the company is going towards. Let's say banks for the past years have given 20-30% growth, but at the end of last year, TISCO gave me a flat growth around Q3 or Q4, I kicked it out of my door. Because TISCO was the first bank company that revealed their assets, I could assume other banks would have problems too, so bye bye to all bank stocks. I entered SAMART, as it had the 20-30% growth I needed. Barely a year since, I have SAMART with 30-40% capital gain. Coincidence? No. I don't sit around looking at technical charts for things to happen. I make things happen. I make the same decisions those big players make. I don't sell because others are selling, I sell because I am the one who judge this company is over, then I make the sale. And as they say, sheep follows.

So yes, the world is changing, so are we investors if we want to survive. But your assumption of end of world = get away from stocks = fail to me. Stocks run this entire planet. Not monkeys, not staffs, companies do.

One question you can't refuse.

My first question directly at you.

So after the entire world ends with the risks and whatnot, I own Advanc and Makro. Pick any amount of time, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years. At the end of that time period, do you think I am richer or poorer? Will my Makro become a mom and pop shop?

"I might be more convinced if you could explain why that same scenario with the Nikkei in 1990 not even recovering 50% yet over more 20 years wouldn't apply to the Dow Jones today?"

Sorry, I am not here to convince you of anything. Like I've said many times, I don't work for this industry nor am I a sales. I am just a happy retired investor, who is happy to share my advices to those who wish to learn. I have no need to lure or attract investors.

But with your question, I'll try my best to answer. The Nikkei is consisted of many companies, new and old, and throughout the period some companies collapse, some gets delisted for personal reasons, and some go bankrupt. The reason the Nikkei is unable to reach that new high right now, is because there isn't a lot of meat in that Nikkei. What is meat? Meat is Toyota, Nissan, Honda for example. These 3 big guys make up the meat. If each car company is worth 20 billion, that is total of 60 billion. So in 1950 whatever, you had 60 billion. During this time, one of the car companies goes bankrupt, and disappears and never comes back. In 2014, how many car companies are there? Of course only 2, where's the meat now? Only 40 billion.

So there is no such thing as recovering. You keep stressing the importance of returning to previous high, do we investors care? Not really. If you take the entire population of a country and times their intelligence, does it equate to you? Of course not, we are individuals. Same with stocks. Japan was one of the strong tigers in the Asian economy, that's why the previous high is not reached yet. What happened? Korea? Samsung? Hyundai? I remember Sony was the huge brand everyone had to have, back 15-20 years ago. Now? Just another brand sitting on that shelf. Of course that affects the valuation of Sony which affects Nikkei doesn't it? Think about it.

The answer you have been looking for. If I was in that 1950 whatever era, would I have invested in stocks let's say Japan? Of course. I would have bought sony happy with my earnings, then once that earnings dropped because of Samsung or whatever, I'm out the door, and into Samsung. I wish you learn one thing. The stock market is a vehicle, we investors are drivers. A vehicle going to crash, doesn't mean investors have to go with it. We choose how to enter and how to exit.

Cheers.

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Wow 1989, do you wish to travel back in time and purchase your shares?

Do I care what monkeys ate during those times?

Investing is a forward looking perspective. We are not historians, you could go back to 1950 all you want, that will not make you any money. Investors are only interested in today, and how it will affect tomorrow, and the potential income the future will bring. But that doesn't mean we ignore history completely, the max we go back is 10-15 years, the rest is irrelevant.

For your history interest, I opened google max years for Nikkei.

1999 16,000

Now 15,400 Not bad, even the most unlucky inexperienced investor buying at the tip, has almost broken even if he bought an index fund, not to mention the dividends.

For my personal interest, Nikkei 5 years.

2009 10,000

Now 15,400

That's what I am talking about. That's what we have been doing, money flowing in. Go ahead, keep proving to yourself how bad it is, the only person's mind you can convince is yourself and like-minded others. I'll keep earning, and you? Choice is yours. (Yes stocks are bad, very scary, stay away!)

You are missing or deliberately avoiding my point. Even if its 1989 it is still relevant because stock market investors claim it safe to simply buy sit on your investment long-term?

If someone was as bullish as you are now in 1989 had started investing in the Nikkei in 1989 as of today they would still be 50% poorer? alt=facepalm.gif>

Fair enough. But I would like to defend myself in that case, I did not say "buy sit on your investment long term". That's what "internet gurus" say. I buy good companies, if they continue to do well, they are kept, if not, I kick them out the door. It never gets personal, just like hiring a staff. In out in out, all successful to me.

So you are correct with your stance, unintelligent investors will lose money, and not all investors will make money. Period. That's it. Me and others? We don't "ride" the whole train rail. We have enter points and exit points. We are the one who started the so called crashes, we leave simply as everything is overvalued. We enter again, when things are undervalued. Simple 1 2 3. Not hard. So yes you are correct, with your firm stance on the high point and today not making it back up, yes some unintelligent investors are poorer. But you can ask me again, during those times, did I become poorer, the answer is no, richer than ever before lol. If I could do it again, will I invest? Hell yeah!!