Baht to go up or down against gbp

[MAJIC]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

I would agree with you,if it was any other country in the world, but Thailand has seen two Military Coups,in recent years,Bird flu,a Tsunami,and many other financial setbacks,which would have crippled many other countries, but Thailand seems immune to it all,making predictions of financial meltdown, does not seem to happen! and could be a risky business! At the moment,the Military Coup has made no difference.

[Pib]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

I would agree with you,if it was any other country in the world, but Thailand has seen two Military Coups,in recent years,Bird flu,a Tsunami,and many other financial setbacks,which would have crippled many other countries, but Thailand seems immune to it all,making predictions of financial meltdown, does not seem to happen! and could be a risky business! At the moment,the Military Coup has made no difference.

Yeap, FX traders pretty much disregard things that don't affect a currency's/country's fundamentals. Epidemics and political events are commons events in our world, but they will affect each country's currency in a different way...from no affect to a major affect. Too many people use their emotions, unfounded beliefs, and love/high esteem of their home country's currency in trying to determine what another country's currency will do.

[MrWorldwide]

if you consider i have 3.3 m in kasikorn and 4m in krungsi and a few more quid waiting to be either sent over or spent here in uk depending on markets then yes i think i have posted a very valid question a********e.

Now. I rarely see anyone post actual numbers but when I do I believe he's attempting to boast.

Son, you'll have to come up with a lot bigger numbers than that to impress some of us here.

Agree 100% with your post, NS, but let's face it - you can post pretty much any number you like here and its unlikely that anyone will call you on it, but tell the world that you've spent over 2 million baht in the first 6 months of your stay simply keeping yourself amused and you'll get slammed here. Every cost of living thread on this board turns into a slanging match - every single one - and it comes down to the fact that we seem to revel in telling other people how to spend THEIR money. I guess it dovetails neatly with telling people they need to leave Thailand and move someplace else cause the Thais don't genuflect in our presence any more

[Naam]

The RMB is supposed to be allowed to float but it will probably fall instead of rise. During this time I could see the baht going back to 40/usd.

Take a look at this article.

Sorry wrong article this is the one

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2014/03/22/mauldin-chinas-minsky-moment/3/

RMB is not a currency as such, it is like the GBP being sterling. China has 2 currencies, the onshore Yuan CNY and the offshore Yuan CNH.

CNY is the national currency and is a partially convertible currency so cannot be on a floating exchange rate. The CNH is a pseudo currency based on the CNY and fully convertible on the Hong Kong foreign exchange. The CNH floats to a certain extent within a range set by the PBOC.

incorrect information! CNY floats and so does CNH and that without any divergence of the two. you can buy CNY as well as CNH denominated bonds and you can hold both CNY and CNH in cash. the only difference is (as already mentioned by you) the convertibility which is however irrelevant for a private investor who does not deal in hundreds of millions.

[Naam]

Draw a line of best fit on that graph, and the value of the Baht has been steadily falling.

are you for real dear Sir? you call the strengthening of the Baht vs. USD from 55 (in january 1998) to presently 33 "steadily falling"?

Your chart starts in 1997 at 25bht to 1USD.

if had not mentioned "draw a line" i'd salute you for being correct

[dirtycash]

if you consider i have 3.3 m in kasikorn and 4m in krungsi and a few more quid waiting to be either sent over or spent here in uk depending on markets then yes i think i have posted a very valid question a********e.

Now. I rarely see anyone post actual numbers but when I do I believe he's attempting to boast.

Son, you'll have to come up with a lot bigger numbers than that to impress some of us here.

listen to john wayne 555

[Jessi]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

Right, cause that's where the baht has been headed since the coup in May, right ? Er, no - it hasnt.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=THB&to=GBP&view=1Y

If the General had done anything to interfere with agricultural and manufacturing exports, you might have a point. If foreign investors had abandoned the country, you might have a point. None of the madness of the last ten years in this country has seriously threatened the rise and rise of the Thai baht against most of our home currencies and nothing illustrates that more graphically than the xe.com 10Y charts:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=THB&view=10Y

In real terms, every currency listed there has gone backwards against the baht. We can blame it on the GFC or we can acknowledge that - for all the corruption and dodgy business practices - big corporations want the combination of infrastructure and cheap labor Thailand has to offer. The figure that really matters to the Thai economy is this one:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=THB&view=10Y

Thailand's top 5 trading partners are China, Japan and the US - China has also been the number one tourism market based on arrivals (at least prior to 2014), but tourism is less than 10% of GDP even when flow-on is factored in. Computers, rubber, commercial vehicles - these are the things that keep the baht strong. I dont know where the UK figures in any of the above but all the dire predictions of economic collapse in Thailand on this forum have - as of early December 2014 - come to nought. If I had to make a call, I see the pound going in the same direction as the Aussie dollar - it's up to the OP whether he can see the above charts abruptly turning against the baht. Ultimately, its all crystal balling and such efforts are ultimately doomed, but at least I've given the OP some lovely graphs to mull over. Good luck.

The OZ $ has gone down about 12% in the past year. I'm amazed the Thai baht has held its own, but good luck to them, but not so good for us pensioners.

I will drink to that.

[sandyf]

The RMB is supposed to be allowed to float but it will probably fall instead of rise. During this time I could see the baht going back to 40/usd.

Take a look at this article.

Sorry wrong article this is the one

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2014/03/22/mauldin-chinas-minsky-moment/3/

RMB is not a currency as such, it is like the GBP being sterling. China has 2 currencies, the onshore Yuan CNY and the offshore Yuan CNH.

CNY is the national currency and is a partially convertible currency so cannot be on a floating exchange rate. The CNH is a pseudo currency based on the CNY and fully convertible on the Hong Kong foreign exchange. The CNH floats to a certain extent within a range set by the PBOC.

incorrect information! CNY floats and so does CNH and that without any divergence of the two. you can buy CNY as well as CNH denominated bonds and you can hold both CNY and CNH in cash. the only difference is (as already mentioned by you) the convertibility which is however irrelevant for a private investor who does not deal in hundreds of millions.

CNY is not a floating exchange rate. It is a fixed exchange rate with a spread. Every morning the PBOC sets the rate for the day.

People's Bank of China sets Yuan mid-point at 6.1282 / dlr vs. last close 6.1502

Source: FXWire CentralBank

8. December 2014 08:16:40

There is no CNH cash, CNH is not an ISO designation. All transactions in CNH must be physically settled in CNY.

CNY is an IMF Article VIII currency so there are no exchange restrictions in place but it is still a restricted currency in the foreign exchange markets.

[Naam]

It is a fixed exchange rate with a spread. Every morning the PBOC sets the rate for the day.

spread = floating

USDCNY intraday today (GMT+1) = evidence

[chiang mai]

I remain very bullish on THB, I forecast sub 50 against GBP before end 2Q15, only about 10% or so off its '97 pre-crash high.

[rayongchelsea]

It's a momentum play..

[Senechal]

Here are a couple points to remember:

Export nations typically depend on low FX rates to create competitive value of their exports. This is traditionally no less true in Thailand than it is for any other export nation.

But this is not just any other export nation this year. Here's why:

1) ASEAN.

A high and rising baht facilitates foreign acquisitions and investments at the outset of ASEAN. Thailand must do this because if they don't Malaysia and Singapore will. The competition to extend financial influence into ASEAN's "more emerging" markets will be intense among ASEAN's 3 more developed nations. Banking and offshore investments are increasingly important to Thailand and will be extremely important as a member of ASEAN. There are just as many powerful Thai banks and corporations hoping for a higher baht value as there are for a lower baht value right now as opportunities are created to extend financial influence outside of Thai borders. As we all know, central banks (despite their 'independence' rhetoric) serve their corporate and banking masters. With a high baht Thailand can exert tremendous influence in ASEAN at a very crucial time. Don't discount that motivation.

And remember who the winners and the losers are in each scenario: The winners in the high-baht scenario are Thailand's wealthiest corporations. The winners in the low-baht scenario are Thailand's SME's. Who do you think is going to win that contest?

2) The junta

The junta is preparing to embark on extremely ambitious infrastructure spending projects. These projects not only reduce the relative importance of the export contribution to GDP, but also depend on large amounts of imported talent, raw material and technology. A low baht FX rate does not serve these projects. A high baht does.

Of course, on a long-term trendline, Thailand must worry about balance of trade. But in the near term, I don't think the concern is there.

If there's one take-away from the last decade of economic history it's that "economic reality" can easily be suspended for the short-term -- and it can be suspended pretty well over the medium term too. Anyone looking at the carnage in Thailand's export numbers and thinking the baht must fall, may well be disappointed.

This may not be a popular opinion here but I expect the baht to rise over the near to medium term. Of course, this being Thailand, I expect them to screw the pooch somewhere over the long term.

My two baht, of course.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Senechal

[sandyf]

It is a fixed exchange rate with a spread. Every morning the PBOC sets the rate for the day.

spread = floating

USDCNY intraday today (GMT+1) = evidence

USDCNY.jpg

Well you can think what you like on that one. Anything other than a free float is a play on words.

[OnMyWay2]

Here are a couple points to remember:

Export nations typically depend on low FX rates to create competitive value of their exports. This is traditionally no less true in Thailand than it is for any other export nation.

But this is not just any other export nation this year. Here's why:

1) ASEAN.

A high and rising baht facilitates foreign acquisitions and investments at the outset of ASEAN. Thailand must do this because if they don't Malaysia and Singapore will. The competition to extend financial influence into ASEAN's "more emerging" markets will be intense among ASEAN's 3 more developed nations. Banking and offshore investments are increasingly important to Thailand and will be extremely important as a member of ASEAN. There are just as many powerful Thai banks and corporations hoping for a higher baht value as there are for a lower baht value right now as opportunities are created to extend financial influence outside of Thai borders. As we all know, central banks (despite their 'independence' rhetoric) serve their corporate and banking masters. With a high baht Thailand can exert tremendous influence in ASEAN at a very crucial time. Don't discount that motivation.

And remember who the winners and the losers are in each scenario: The winners in the high-baht scenario are Thailand's wealthiest corporations. The winners in the low-baht scenario are Thailand's SME's. Who do you think is going to win that contest?

2) The junta

The junta is preparing to embark on extremely ambitious infrastructure spending projects. These projects not only reduce the relative importance of the export contribution to GDP, but also depend on large amounts of imported talent, raw material and technology. A low baht FX rate does not serve these projects. A high baht does.

Of course, on a long-term trendline, Thailand must worry about balance of trade. But in the near term, I don't think the concern is there.

If there's one take-away from the last decade of economic history it's that "economic reality" can easily be suspended for the short-term -- and it can be suspended pretty well over the medium term too. Anyone looking at the carnage in Thailand's export numbers and thinking the baht must fall, may well be disappointed.

This may not be a popular opinion here but I expect the baht to rise over the near to medium term. Of course, this being Thailand, I expect them to screw the pooch somewhere over the long term.

My two baht, of course.

I agree with your bullish sentiment towards Thailand but does the baht need to be strong vs. what? other Asian currencies? Not necessarily the US dollar.

[sandyf]

Back in 2010 the IMF proposed restructuring the organisation to allow emerging markets to have a greater participation. Every country agreed, including the US, but when it went to congress they refused, and are still refusing to this day to ratify the proposal. At that point in time China was stating that they were pursuing full convertibility which would be completed by the end of 2012.

They obviously saw the writing on the wall and abandoned full convertibility in favour of a series of trade agreements with selected countries, Canada and Australia being the latest. These agreements, I believe over 20 now, give China the ability to trade without using any of the major currencies as an intermediary currency. Clever move, protect their own economy with partial convertibility along with direct trade facilities.

In the meantime we have seen the emergence of the BRICS agreement and their proposals for a corporate bank to fund emerging markets. Head office is to open in Shanghai with a branch in South Africa. All this is structured to erode the supremacy of the US dollar. It may be on the crest of a wave at the moment but it will not last for long.

The OP questioned the THB to the GBP but the answer lies in the future of the USD. When the dollar declines the pound will rise and there will be more Baht to the pound.

As far as the IMF 2010 reforms go, it is beginning to look like the US has shot themselves in the foot.

[OnMyWay2]

I'm mainly thinking of 2 year time horizon. With the Fed just ending QE and planning to tighten monetary policy in 2015 the dollar is going up. Near term. I don't know of any central bank looking to tighten in 2015.

China is easing, Europe is easing, Japan is easing, Thailand is talking about easing. so on a relative basis the dollar wins.

Sorry wish I knew more about gbp but I don't follow the UK hopefully someone can extrapolate.

[dirtycash]

Baht's weakening in line with other regional currencies, BOT says
The Nation

just seen this in another thai visa topic today. thai baht to decline.

Edited December 9, 2014 by dirtycash

[Digitalnomade]

USA and Europe will crash in 6 months. keep your baths!

[Pib]

USA and Europe will crash in 6 months. keep your baths!

They going to crash again? Thanks for the heads up. I'll be sure to keep my baths as I like to be clean.

[Naam]

USA and Europe will crash in 6 months. keep your baths!

They going to crash again? Thanks for the heads up. I'll be sure to keep my baths as I like to be clean.

a shower won't do Pib?

[SheungWan]

When GBP was approaching 55 some of the wise guys were speculating it was going to 60 and sat on their hands. Now they are fretting it is going to drop below 49. As for the military government bad for business card, well actually the army headed off the rice crisis before it finally blew off the roof. Their intervention actually stabilised the rate and in the last few months GBPTHB has gone down much to some pundits consternation and gone down quite substantially.

[SheungWan]

When GBP was approaching 55 some of the wise guys were speculating it was going to 60 and sat on their hands. Now they are fretting it is going to drop below 49. As for the military government bad for business card, well actually the army headed off the rice crisis before it finally blew off the roof. Their intervention actually stabilised the rate and in the last few months GBPTHB has gone down much to some pundits consternation and gone down quite substantially.

...and so it goes.....

[dirtycash]

so there we go. down to 49 today , it was 52 when i posted this and i am just after lodging another 17000 gbp into bank. didnt have an option to keep british sterling on me whilst in pattaya so i had to bank it.

ill learn one of these days.

[Pheat123]

The only person who really knows is Elvis

But he has left the building

[Pheat123]

so there we go. down to 49 today , it was 52 when i posted this and i am just after lodging another 17000 gbp into bank. didnt have an option to keep british sterling on me whilst in pattaya so i had to bank it.

ill learn one of these days.

Why did you not just open a sterling account in a Thai bank ?

Convert when your ready?

[meatboy]

so there we go. down to 49 today , it was 52 when i posted this and i am just after lodging another 17000 gbp into bank. didnt have an option to keep british sterling on me whilst in pattaya so i had to bank it.

ill learn one of these days.

thats just enough to cover your extension or a week with a dolly from the bar.

[i claudius]

When GBP was approaching 55 some of the wise guys were speculating it was going to 60 and sat on their hands. Now they are fretting it is going to drop below 49. As for the military government bad for business card, well actually the army headed off the rice crisis before it finally blew off the roof. Their intervention actually stabilised the rate and in the last few months GBPTHB has gone down much to some pundits consternation and gone down quite substantially.

Judging by your other posts i bet you are now a happy man

ps i changed my money at 55

[dirtycash]

so there we go. down to 49 today , it was 52 when i posted this and i am just after lodging another 17000 gbp into bank. didnt have an option to keep british sterling on me whilst in pattaya so i had to bank it.

ill learn one of these days.

Why did you not just open a sterling account in a Thai bank ?

Convert when your ready?

thanks pheat but i had no clue if there was such a thing , im kicking myself now !! just heard on news that yingluck is to face criminal charges , does that mean more riots and unrest likely and if so what would happen to baht.

[SheungWan]

so there we go. down to 49 today , it was 52 when i posted this and i am just after lodging another 17000 gbp into bank. didnt have an option to keep british sterling on me whilst in pattaya so i had to bank it.

ill learn one of these days.

Why did you not just open a sterling account in a Thai bank ?

Convert when your ready?

thanks pheat but i had no clue if there was such a thing , im kicking myself now !! just heard on news that yingluck is to face criminal charges , does that mean more riots and unrest likely and if so what would happen to baht.

The markets currently more distracted by the prospect of political uncertainty in the UK with the forthcoming General Election in May.

[Strangebrew]

Depending on which way the wind is blowing Thai baht will choose which currency they rate the baht on. But once the the worm is out baht will crash and then we will all have to watch for Thai's taking a header out of windows.