Weakening Russian Ruble not affecting Thai economy yet

[ToddinChonburi]

BUT !!!!!!! tourism is still down Which side of my mouth should I speak from today.

[elgordo38]

Looks like General Prayut is taking a page from the TAT playbook, where no matter what

happens in the world ,release a statement that Thai tourism will not be affected......

Of course Thailand will be affected, I can already see there are a lot less Russian tourists

in Pattaya.....

Lookin at the world through Rose colored glasses

[cookee68]

That's not the same as what I read in another thread, everything that comes out of a Thai politicians mouth in this country is pure shit

[tullynagardy]

Who does he think he convinces with this nonsense?

Absolutely everyone here, from the cleaners to the hotels owners, can see the number of Russian tourists (the 3rd biggest tourist group) is way down and getting worse.

Does he think they`ll say "we must be mistaken, the Russians are still here but we are just less attentive, the Dear Leader told us so"

There isn`t a day goes past where he doesn`t say "his government has taken a proactive approach in promoting economic growth" but actions speak louder than words and we are seeing nothing.

2015 is shaping up to be a bleak year economically for Thailand

[nkg]

The Russian Rouble is weak mainly because oil prices has halved.

Bad news for Russia, but great news for Thailand. When oil prices go down, so do gasoline prices, food prices etc. Normal Thai people have more money in their pockets to spend.

A sharp drop in Russian tourism might hurt the Thai economy a little, but it would be far outweighed by the growth of the Thai economy caused by "half-priced oil".

http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-gdp-impact-of-10-decline-in-oil-2014-12

Not to mention the cost of flights to Thailand falling as oil gets cheaper ....

Edited December 19, 2014 by nkg

[rickirs]

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Hate to tell Prayut Chan - o - Cha that it is not affecting anyone else either, except Russia unless you are dealing in Rubles and have dropped the USD all currency trade in the Ruble is suspended, it really shouldn't effect Thailand just yet , what plays out in the next six months is another thing, also three weeks back you were spouting about trading pac with Russia , I would think again if I was you, China will give you enough grief. alt=coffee1.gif width=32 height=24>

HOWEVER, if the recent Thai sale of pork products to Russia was based on the ruble, Thailand just lost 45% on the deal. Hereafter I doubt there will be any further food deals with Russia if only because imports will become too expensive for the average Russian.

[2fishin2]

To answer the topic of this thread of course it is directly effecting the Thai economy as I type this response. If the tourists dont come, it means less money for Thailand. Oh Im probably wrong as that is more of an indirect effect. Direct would be Putin handing the junta leader money hand to hand. Oh Im so stupid SMH

[BSJ]

As my French friend would say "Apenis ez a great stayt of mynd". The PM looks happy most of the time. And I am sure he will be happy to spread his special form of cheer to the downtrodden masses.....and they had better like it!

[konying]

The Russian Rouble is weak mainly because oil prices has halved.

Bad news for Russia, but great news for Thailand. When oil prices go down, so do gasoline prices, food prices etc. Normal Thai people have more money in their pockets to spend.

A sharp drop in Russian tourism might hurt the Thai economy a little, but it would be far outweighed by the growth of the Thai economy caused by "half-priced oil".

http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-gdp-impact-of-10-decline-in-oil-2014-12

Not to mention the cost of flights to Thailand falling as oil gets cheaper ....

Good to see you know what you talking about, though i am yet to see half price drop in gasoline prices in Thailand or any price drops across anything.

[mpyre]

What about Australians visiting Thailand? Aussie down 30% in the last year versus Dollar...

[Felt 35]

I'm not around everywhere but the places i frequently visit already have a lot less Russians now than a year ago.

[Alwyn]

Crimea is the new Pattaya ( without the bar girls!). Or, if its adventure you want try East Ukrainne (still no bar girls).

I had a company in Ukraine in the late 90's and there more girls working the bars back then than you'd find in Patong! A friend of mine is still there as he married a local - the girls are still there!

[Alwyn]

The Russian Rouble is weak mainly because oil prices has halved.

Bad news for Russia, but great news for Thailand. When oil prices go down, so do gasoline prices, food prices etc. Normal Thai people have more money in their pockets to spend.

A sharp drop in Russian tourism might hurt the Thai economy a little, but it would be far outweighed by the growth of the Thai economy caused by "half-priced oil".

http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-gdp-impact-of-10-decline-in-oil-2014-12

Not to mention the cost of flights to Thailand falling as oil gets cheaper ....

Good to see you know what you talking about, though i am yet to see half price drop in gasoline prices in Thailand or any price drops across anything.

He's not far off, oil is below $60 a barrel now, which is half the high of just a few years back. I noticed this has impacted fuel prices hugely in the UK - a drop from 132 a litre down to 115 per litre over just a month a drop of more than 10% at the pump. Yet Thailand fuel price has moved just a few satang. It would be handy if the price fall was passed on to the motorists.

[tomacht8]

Weakening Russian Ruble not affecting Thai economy yet.

The ruble has lost against the Thai Baht around 35-45%.
So the prices for Russian holiday tourists in Thailand have become very expensive.
This will certainly have effects in the tourism industry

[konying]

The Russian Rouble is weak mainly because oil prices has halved.

Bad news for Russia, but great news for Thailand. When oil prices go down, so do gasoline prices, food prices etc. Normal Thai people have more money in their pockets to spend.

A sharp drop in Russian tourism might hurt the Thai economy a little, but it would be far outweighed by the growth of the Thai economy caused by "half-priced oil".

http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-gdp-impact-of-10-decline-in-oil-2014-12

Not to mention the cost of flights to Thailand falling as oil gets cheaper ....

Good to see you know what you talking about, though i am yet to see half price drop in gasoline prices in Thailand or any price drops across anything.

He's not far off, oil is below $60 a barrel now, which is half the high of just a few years back. I noticed this has impacted fuel prices hugely in the UK - a drop from 132 a litre down to 115 per litre over just a month a drop of more than 10% at the pump. Yet Thailand fuel price has moved just a few satang. It would be handy if the price fall was passed on to the motorists.

He is very wrong, because oil prices have been down for a while now , but in Thailand just a tiny drop, that tiny drop did not result in anything else being cheaper.

A sharp drop in Russian Tourists shuts down restaurants, market stalls, souvenir shops, hotels, bus company's, real estate's, construction, and all the down spiral effect.

PS. Thai still need money to pay for cheaper fuel,but without an income, it makes little difference what the prices are.

Edited December 19, 2014 by konying

[konying]

Crimea is the new Pattaya ( without the bar girls!). Or, if its adventure you want try East Ukrainne (still no bar girls).

1. Russian did not come to Thailand for the bar girls

2. You have not been to Crimea, so you might be shocked to find out that it use to be a great sea side resort, Yalta especially, until if was given to Ukraine and turned into toilet.

3. Another popular destination is Sochi, which is just as nice and Yalta, however those 2 were more expansive than Thailand.

4. The Russians who did come to Thailand were country pumpkins, farmers and factory workers. Middle class and people from capital cities holiday in Europe and spend more money in 1 month than you make in a year.

[Alwyn]

The Russian Rouble is weak mainly because oil prices has halved.

Bad news for Russia, but great news for Thailand. When oil prices go down, so do gasoline prices, food prices etc. Normal Thai people have more money in their pockets to spend.

A sharp drop in Russian tourism might hurt the Thai economy a little, but it would be far outweighed by the growth of the Thai economy caused by "half-priced oil".

http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-gdp-impact-of-10-decline-in-oil-2014-12

Not to mention the cost of flights to Thailand falling as oil gets cheaper ....

Good to see you know what you talking about, though i am yet to see half price drop in gasoline prices in Thailand or any price drops across anything.

He's not far off, oil is below $60 a barrel now, which is half the high of just a few years back. I noticed this has impacted fuel prices hugely in the UK - a drop from 132 a litre down to 115 per litre over just a month a drop of more than 10% at the pump. Yet Thailand fuel price has moved just a few satang. It would be handy if the price fall was passed on to the motorists.

He is very wrong, because oil prices have been down for a while now , but in Thailand just a tiny drop, that tiny drop did not result in anything else being cheaper.

A sharp drop in Russian Tourists shuts down restaurants, market stalls, souvenir shops, hotels, bus company's, real estate's, construction, and all the down spiral effect.

PS. Thai still need money to pay for cheaper fuel,but without an income, it makes little difference what the prices are.

Sorry, but you're the one that's wrong. Oil prices haven't been down for a while now. They've been dropping for a while now. Oil has dropped $45 a barrel since September ($105 - $60). In fact the change was 2.45% just on today's movement. That's the global price. Thailand also benefits from those same drops in global prices but the savings are not being past down to the motorists etc. Yes a of course a sharp drop in tourists impacts restaurants and .. well... all tourism related businesses. But the fact is, because you don't see a half price drop in gasoline doesn't mean there hasn't been a falling of oil prices, it means you're not seeing that price at the pumps (and that's an argument you need to take up with the government)

[Xircal]

The other day on the BBC news they were interviewing people in Russia on the street about the effect the free falling rouble was having, and one women said she had cancelled her Thailand vacation.

For anyone who booked and paid for a Thai holiday earlier in the year but hasn't taken it yet, the current FX rate is catastrophic.

Looking at FX rates from the beginning of the year to the present day, the Ruble has lost more than 50% of its value already with no sign of it stabilising anytime soon: http://www.freecurrencyrates.com/exchange-rate-history/RUB-THB/2014

The above link shows FX rates of 0.5865 Satang up to December 12, but this morning Bangkok Bank is advertising only 40 Satang for a single Ruble: http://bangkokbank.com/BangkokBank/WebServices/Rates/Pages/FX_Rates.aspx

It's going to be a nasty shock for anyone who doesn't check the FX rate before embarking on their holiday.

[konying]

Sorry, but you're the one that's wrong. Oil prices haven't been down for a while now. They've been dropping for a while now. Oil has dropped $45 a barrel since September ($105 - $60). In fact the change was 2.45% just on today's movement. That's the global price. Thailand also benefits from those same drops in global prices but the savings are not being past down to the motorists etc. Yes a of course a sharp drop in tourists impacts restaurants and .. well... all tourism related businesses. But the fact is, because you don't see a half price drop in gasoline doesn't mean there hasn't been a falling of oil prices, it means you're not seeing that price at the pumps (and that's an argument you need to take up with the government)

If you actually lived in Thailand instead of UK and did some every day shopping, including filling up the car, you might then know that prices have not changed.

Prices at the pumps hardly reflected drop in oil prices.

MAY BE in UK, it did, but most certainly in Thailand it did not.

91 is still 36 baht/l where as before it was 39/l, a saving of 15 baht on a tank for a bike, hardly enough money for Thai to go running shopping..

Though with no customers, the same Thai will not even have the 15 baht to start with

[Alwyn]

Crimea is the new Pattaya ( without the bar girls!). Or, if its adventure you want try East Ukrainne (still no bar girls).

1. Russian did not come to Thailand for the bar girls

2. You have not been to Crimea, so you might be shocked to find out that it use to be a great sea side resort, Yalta especially, until if was given to Ukraine and turned into toilet.

3. Another popular destination is Sochi, which is just as nice and Yalta, however those 2 were more expansive than Thailand.

4. The Russians who did come to Thailand were country pumpkins, farmers and factory workers. Middle class and people from capital cities holiday in Europe and spend more money in 1 month than you make in a year.

I agree with your point number 1. They didn't come to Thailand for the bar girls. They brought their own slappers with them!

[zydeco]

It's also about this time of year that we usually start getting stories about Russian travel agencies going bankrupt and leaving their customers stranded in Thailand. Seem to get three or four of those a year. And that was when the Russian economy was strong. This year might see an entire refugee colony dumped on Thailand. Maybe a new source of cheap labor for fishing fleets???

[Alwyn]

Sorry, but you're the one that's wrong. Oil prices haven't been down for a while now. They've been dropping for a while now. Oil has dropped $45 a barrel since September ($105 - $60). In fact the change was 2.45% just on today's movement. That's the global price. Thailand also benefits from those same drops in global prices but the savings are not being past down to the motorists etc. Yes a of course a sharp drop in tourists impacts restaurants and .. well... all tourism related businesses. But the fact is, because you don't see a half price drop in gasoline doesn't mean there hasn't been a falling of oil prices, it means you're not seeing that price at the pumps (and that's an argument you need to take up with the government)

If you actually lived in Thailand instead of UK and did some every day shopping, including filling up the car, you might then know that prices have not changed.

Prices at the pumps hardly reflected drop in oil prices.

MAY BE in UK, it did, but most certainly in Thailand it did not.

91 is still 36 baht/l where as before it was 39/l, a saving of 15 baht on a tank for a bike, hardly enough money for Thai to go running shopping..

Though with no customers, the same Thai will not even have the 15 baht to start with

Why are you arguing with me about this? The fact is (if you read something outside of TV you might understand this) oil prices have halved over the past few months and that saving is not being passed on to the motorists. In Europe that saving is being passed on to the motorists. Because it isn't being passed on in Thailand DOES NOT MEAN OIL PRICES HAVEN'T CHANGED. It means the savings have not been passed on, that's all. Regarding your opening comment, I've only been back in the UK for a few months, I'm still aware of what's happening in Thailand because; 1. Like you I read TV and benefit from the wisdom of everybody here... 2. I speak with my wife every day and still pay the bills! I can't change the economic wonders of Thailand and neither can you. Speak to the leader about the petrol prices, he can impact them, we can't!

[spike]

Google "Putin net worth" up pops 70 billion USD... Where the hell did he get that? Until the Russian population start asking that question... They will continue to cancel their vacation plans.

[surangw]

"yet" seems very flexible term

[khunsiam]

The Russian Rouble is weak mainly because oil prices has halved.

Bad news for Russia, but great news for Thailand. When oil prices go down, so do gasoline prices, food prices etc. Normal Thai people have more money in their pockets to spend.

A sharp drop in Russian tourism might hurt the Thai economy a little, but it would be far outweighed by the growth of the Thai economy caused by "half-priced oil".

http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-gdp-impact-of-10-decline-in-oil-2014-12

Not to mention the cost of flights to Thailand falling as oil gets cheaper ....

yes, but not that great for the rubber planters, oil down = cheaper synthetic rubber

[konying]

Alwyn, I can not explain it to you any easier than I already did.

Can you not comprehend that if people do not have money it makes no difference how much things cost .

And please do not make silly assumption about what I read , what I know and who or what I am , just makes you look very foolish

[MJP]

Google "Putin net worth" up pops 70 billion USD... Where the hell did he get that? Until the Russian population start asking that question... They will continue to cancel their vacation plans.

http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/celebrity/how-vladimir-putin-stashed-away-a-secret-70-billion-personal-fortune/

[StasD]

I will stay in Thailand 2 months instead of 2 weeks due to crisis in Russia.

[NeverSure]

Good to see you know what you talking about, though i am yet to see half price drop in gasoline prices in Thailand or any price drops across anything.

Much of the price of gasoline in many countries is taxes. The cost of handling and refining oil is largely fixed.

The retailer still needs the same profit which is in the price.

Only in a country with very low gasoline taxes can the price of gasoline drop substantially. Even then it won't be in lockstep with the price of oil for reasons mention above. Crude oil is just one cost component in the gasoline at the pump.

[bristolgeoff]

the south will have less Russians the hotels will be empty abit.maybe good or bad I don,t know