Thai govt unfazed for now by looming 'currency wars'

[webfact]

Govt unfazed for now by looming 'currency wars'
Pichaya Changsorn
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- While Siam Commercial Bank's chief economist seems sure the world is entering a currency war, but Energy Minister Narongchai Akrasanee sees no reasons for concerns, saying the government is confident the Thai economy will do better this year, regardless of the movements in oil prices and exchange rates.

The question was raised yesterday by Suthichai Yoon, chairman of Nation Multimedia Group, who moderated a seminar session. Asked whether Thailand would step into a currency battle after the Monetary Authority of Singapore made a surprise monetary-easing move that sent its currency falling sharply on Wednesday, Narongchai bluntly said: "No. I think the Bank of Thailand is in a position to manage the baht very well. The government policy is clear that we will have a 'soft currency bias' … at least for the next few weeks. Beyond that we don't know," he said.

Narongchai said he expected more uncertainties in global exchange rates this year, citing many factors including the Swiss franc's "divorce" from the euro and the political change in Greece that may lead to its exit from the euro zone.

"If that's the case, it will be the beginning of the end," he said.

Yesterday's seminar entitled "Thailand Moving Forward: Economic Reforms under the Interim Government" was organised by Siam Commercial Bank Plc and co-organised by The Nation, Now26 TV, and the Asian Wall Street Journal.

SCB chief economist Sutapa Amornvivat told the session that she agreed with Narongchai's assertion that there is now the beginning of a currency war. She told the audience to watch out for a reaction from South Korea's central bank at its monetary policy meeting next month.

Because of the diversity of the Thai economy, Sutapa said the impacts from these external factors would be mixed. Monetary-easing policies by central banks that have inflated asset prices, and the shrinking oil prices, will be more beneficial to urban people and some business sectors such as exports, but rural people and farmers as well as commodity producers will suffer the most.

She said the issue of farm subsidies "will put a lot of pressure on the government for months to come. We're watching how the government will respond" to the impacts on farmers, she said.

Narongchai said the government felt more comfortable with capital inflows than outflows. Thanks to measures unveiled last year, he was confident that the Thai economy would improve this year regardless of the currency and oil-price factors. "These two factors are not so disadvantageous to Thailand," he said.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Govt-unfazed-for-now-by-looming-currency-wars-30252980.html

-- The Nation 2015-01-30

[Thai at Heart]

I love how this starts.

A. Unfazed

B. Unconcerned

C. Monitoring

D. Mulling

E. Considering

F. Acting

By next Wednesday there will be at least a policy statement about how concerned they are.

[KhunMoo]

If the markets really wish/hope you currency to do something, you don't stand a chance. No matter how big FC reserves, you might have, or how much money you print.

[Bluespunk]

"While Siam Commercial Bank's chief economist seems sure the world is entering a currency war, but Energy Minister Narongchai Akrasanee sees no reasons for concerns, saying the government is confident the Thai economy will do better this year, regardless of the movements in oil prices and exchange rates."

I would trust the view of the chief economist over the minister any day, this feeling was reinforced after I read what the energy minister said.

Heads sand buried are three words that come to mind.

[useronthenet]

They should be, weak currencies means exports will be more expensive, and tourist numbers dropping like flies. Seems that they are putting on a brave face in public, but behind the scenes, perhaps a different story ?

[NongKhaiKid]

They just don't get it. Only a couple of days ago a senior official from the Commerce Ministry spoke of expected increased exports this year then she said the world currency fluctuations etc and the strength of the Baht would make exports more expensive.

It's usual for officials to cross purposes and contradict each other but now it's been condensed into the same statement.

[siampolee]

Do these people making these inane statements actually realize that in truth the future of this country like many others is in the hands of the international banksters and financiers.

Truth be known no country has any control over its currency thus trade is and will be influenced by the money manipulators shenanigans.

Thailand was led like a lamb unto the financial slaughter a few years ago, it will happen again and as I have said, ''Thailand will not be the only victim of the international banksters shenanigans.

[NeverSure]

I wonder how foreign countries with big manufacturing investments in Thailand will like it if their goods cost too much?

[Prbkk]

Ok, are we to assume they didn't notice that the so-called currency war actually started 3 years ago with Abe and Europe? The high Baht is going to be painful for Thailand . Time to cut rates again.

[kalbo123]

Maybe it's time for the energy Minister to pick up basic economics, and do the interview again

[rabid old goat]

The government policy is clear that we will have a 'soft currency bias' … at least for the next few weeks

well that sounds wonder if i was a international conglomerate looking to invest billions in thai infrastructure this is all the reassurance i would need

[Cake Monster]

With the Thai Baht so strong, Exports will surely suffer, and that is when the big players in the Manufactureing Sector will call a halt to any further Cap Ex, and consider their options for cheaper cost base, and supplier chain.

I can see ( rightly or wrongly ) some major lay-offs in the labour force here, along with large plant closures, and a move by Industry to relocate to less expensive, and more accomodateing Nations within the Asean Region.

Maybe the players are just waiting for Myanmar to become more open, and are just biding time now , not to waste money moving twice ( Once by moving production to another nation, and then again to Myanmar ).

The Phillipines, only yesterday, posted growth of 5.9% YOY growth, and Malaysia,s was 5.3% ( if I remember correctly ), which both eclipse Thailand,s paltry 1.3 %.

[PepperMe]

They just don't get it. Only a couple of days ago a senior official from the Commerce Ministry spoke of expected increased exports this year then she said the world currency fluctuations etc and the strength of the Baht would make exports more expensive.

It's usual for officials to cross purposes and contradict each other but now it's been condensed into the same statement.

In very uncertain times regarding global currencies and markets, the Thais have no other option than to make it up as they go along. I really don't think there is any country out there doing anything different.

Thailand's situation is as uncertain as everyone else's. Because nobody knows how their currency is going to react. Also exports are tied to the currency, if it gets weaker than the Indian Rupee and the Vietnamese Dong, then that will be good for Thai rice exports because it makes us more competitive, but at the3 same time can affect negatively other commodities depending on the currency behaviour of competing countries in that commodity.

It is very tough to call. If the baht crashes, exports will be good across the board, if the baht strengthens, it will be very bad for exports.

[smedly]

I read that OP and one thought immediately came to mind "dropping the ball" which you cannot afford to do in this climate, if it gets away from you then it requires 10x the effort to get it back - foolish at best

[Ulic]

So in a nutshell it does not matter what happens anywhere in the world next year, or what Thailand does, Thailand will do well

and everything will improve for everybody.

[wabothai]

Yep, keep on believing in ghosts !!!!!

[wabothai]

Moreover investment in Thailand means buying bahts. So what happens when the baht is becoming too expensive? Investors stay away and tourism from Europe will stop.

And the (Euro) expats are very, very, unhappy.

One big happy family!!!!

[elgordo38]

Do these people making these inane statements actually realize that in truth the future of this country like many others is in the hands of the international banksters and financiers.

Truth be known no country has any control over its currency thus trade is and will be influenced by the money manipulators shenanigans.

Thailand was led like a lamb unto the financial slaughter a few years ago, it will happen again and as I have said, ''Thailand will not be the only victim of the international banksters shenanigans.

The really big banksters to watch are the Central Banks. The word Cartel comes to mind.

[Suffinator]

While Siam Commercial Bank's chief economist seems sure the world is entering a currency war, but Energy Minister Narongchai Akrasanee sees no reasons for concerns, saying the government is confident the Thai economy will do better this year, regardless of the movements in oil prices and exchange rates.

In other words the general's running the show don't have a clue how the money markets work but will stick their heads in the sand hoping it won't affect Thailand ... actually they are sure of it because Thailand is special, it's the greatest nation on earth.

I really feel sorry for the poor average Thai having to put up with this lot knowing that they can't do anything about them due to the lack of democracy and the treat of being subjected to an 'attitude adjustment'.

You've got to thank you're lucky stars you weren't born a Thai.

[rickirs]

If only the government was unfazed and implemented its stimulus plans for full investment in Thailand's industries. Unfortunately, it will instead go into full economic paralysis and think it better to "play it safe" by handing out little economic gifts to specific groups to protect its image than to protect the economy.

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

I love how this starts.

A. Unfazed

B. Unconcerned

C. Monitoring

D. Mulling

E. Considering

F. Acting

By next Wednesday there will be at least a policy statement about how concerned they are.

G. Devaluation

[Jay Sata]

It is very rare I read a thread where I agree with every poster and have nothing to add.

Except perhaps the observation that building has slowed down and there are unsold empty properties everywhere.

[Thai at Heart]

I love how this starts.

A. Unfazed

B. Unconcerned

C. Monitoring

D. Mulling

E. Considering

F. Acting

By next Wednesday there will be at least a policy statement about how concerned they are.

G. Devaluation

Not gonna happen. PTT and others are on a buying spree worldwide. Not Thai Union foods buying Sheffield Wednesday at good rates.

They need to find a way to let the low oil prices feed through into the domestic market ot bring down prices that way. Fuel makes up a huge wedge of manufacturing in Thailand. Get busy getting efficient and import machinery like crazy in to increase efficiency.

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

I love how this starts.

A. Unfazed

B. Unconcerned

C. Monitoring

D. Mulling

E. Considering

F. Acting

By next Wednesday there will be at least a policy statement about how concerned they are.

G. Devaluation

Not gonna happen. PTT and others are on a buying spree worldwide. Not Thai Union foods buying Sheffield Wednesday at good rates.

They need to find a way to let the low oil prices feed through into the domestic market ot bring down prices that way. Fuel makes up a huge wedge of manufacturing in Thailand. Get busy getting efficient and import machinery like crazy in to increase efficiency.

Not gonna happen. PTT and others are on a buying spree worldwide.

This is the true "Thainess" (aka Thai Chinese Thai ness)

[willyumiii]

I'm just a guy who cares about the exchange rate on the USD and Baht...up or down is my only question!

Maybe if they erect more Spirit Houses at the banks all will be good soon?

[Loptr]

Looming currency wars? Hell, it's been ongoing for over a year...

Anyone remember the 1997 Asian financial crisis and which country caused it?

[MK1]

Since the devaluation of Australian currency against the US dollar over the last the last 3 months, the cost of exports to Australia for example have soared by as much as 30%. Thailand is in for rude awakening if it does not adjust its currency to counteract the effect of diminishing tourists and a significant decline in exports which seems to be definitely on the horizon in 2015.

[chiang mai]

What say you Huayrat, cocky and offensive or gurgling now?