Stable Baht investments

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

If you want to buy a property you must just hold on for another few months (6 months to 12 months). Property has been in a bubble phase for years and are coming down fast. I would recommend that you don't put all your eggs in one basket, keep some in cash/savings account (+- 6 months expenses) invest some in 12 month fixed deposit and keep out of long term investments for now. Interest rates could go up quickly in the next year and if you are in long term investments you can lose out badly. I will not touch stocks for now as many Thai companies are exposed to USD loans/bonds and are levered too highly. The return on Thai bonds don't reflect the real risks in the country. If you have B 100 000 available invest in gold, not to make money but as an insurrance policy. People misunderstand the reason for owning gold, I don't hold gold to make more money but as a final back stop if the world markets come crashing down or if the Baht hit rock bottom against the USD. Gold have not performed well in USD and Baht terms but have a look at the increase in Yen, Euro and Ruble value over the last year. We are now past the normal crashing time for markets (on average 6 years and the last was in 2008), its time for a correction of 25% plus.

[bealus]

To all participants on this thread who cherry pick on statistics to substantiate their argument, a quote from Winston Churchill: " I only trust statistics which I doctored/manipulated myself"

[ChaangNoi]

I would take a percent and buy some gold, just in case you need it.

Bitcoin also if you are okay for a bit of risk. It is down about 75% from it's high but it is still up about 6000% in the last 4 years.

[spambot]

The stock market seems quite violative here

The problem with the Thai stock market for me is not the volatility - all stock markets are volatile, but over the longer term equities consistently outperform other asset classes such as bonds, commodities and property. In my opinion the problem is that many SET-listed companies are not run for the benefit of all shareholders. Often there is a founding family behind the scenes, or a large percentage of the shares is held by a single entities (or group of entities). That leads me to conclude that the best way to access the market is through quality active management.

One of the best active managers in this market is Aberdeen. I prefer to keep my investments offshore, and I hold Aberdeen New Thai, an investment trust listed on the London Stock Exchange. However, within Thailand (and denominated in Thai Baht) is Aberdeen Siam Leaders (fund). Over the last calendar 5 years it has returned 43.07%, 8.54%, 52.84%, -5.61%, 16.20% in Baht. Not too shabby.

Source: http://tools.morningstarthailand.com/th/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?tab=1&Id=F000000QWJ&ClientFund=0&BaseCurrencyId=THB&CurrencyId=THB&LanguageId=th-TH

I only pick this fund as an example. There are others out there with similar performance.

Anyway, I wouldn't be too quick to write off the Thai stock market as an investment for at least part of your money.

This is a good insight -"many SET-listed companies are not run for the benefit of all shareholders".

Many times I have wondered looking at Thai SET why it is more difficult to rationalise share prices as compared to western markets - I liked your post since it seems to point to something that shows why traditional rules do not exist in Thai share pricing.

The bottom line is that you are suggesting that Thai company shareholders are not exerting pressure to maximise performance and gain value. .

I may be making a big jump here when I ask this question, but - Why is there no / little investor pressure points actively closing and correcting value gaps for Thai companies?

Obviously in many other markets - when a value gap is correctly identified - Then this information would be enough to awaken the company to respond with a defense or alignment to value

Why this is not happening in Thailand?

1. Are there legal barriers that prohibits shareholders in holding the company they invested unaccountable?

2. Is there a cultural issue in Thailand that prohibits its shareholders from asking for accountability?

3. Is there just a lack of understanding what constitutes a gap - in order to actually question a company strategic / operational delivery?

4. A feedback loop structurally does not exist and hence shareholders can not find a way to create pressure for change?

It is probably an impossible request - But would be good to hear your views

[poweratradio]

i d rather buy king bhumipol gold and silver coins, for example 5000 bath 1974 abouut 30 gr. , 3 years ago would sell for 40.000 thb now 60.000.

if the king dies then his coins go ballistic.

so mote it be.

roobaa01

Please explain why a gold coin with a set gold value would go ballistic in the event of a death of the inscribed portrait of an individual, If you have a logical answer then this would hold true for the queen on the maple leaf too. Dream on or you accounting for lunacy in the masses rendering a coin a collectors item but with so many out there that value would be about as good as a snowball. >if the king dies then his coins go ballistic.< I

[catman20]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Bring your money to Thailand. Buy gold.
Since the beginning of December 2014 it's gained 10%.

Do you actually buy gold bars ? and if so where do you keep them ? if you invested say a couple of million baht that's a lot of gold bars.

[kanwisher]

I would be curious if there are as many market makers and liquidity in the market here. Also I would love to see the volume of automated trading in Thailand. Perhaps these markets are just not that liquid. I'll take a look today I work for a finance company, see if I can get some details off the terminal

The stock market seems quite violative here

The problem with the Thai stock market for me is not the volatility - all stock markets are volatile, but over the longer term equities consistently outperform other asset classes such as bonds, commodities and property. In my opinion the problem is that many SET-listed companies are not run for the benefit of all shareholders. Often there is a founding family behind the scenes, or a large percentage of the shares is held by a single entities (or group of entities). That leads me to conclude that the best way to access the market is through quality active management.

One of the best active managers in this market is Aberdeen. I prefer to keep my investments offshore, and I hold Aberdeen New Thai, an investment trust listed on the London Stock Exchange. However, within Thailand (and denominated in Thai Baht) is Aberdeen Siam Leaders (fund). Over the last calendar 5 years it has returned 43.07%, 8.54%, 52.84%, -5.61%, 16.20% in Baht. Not too shabby.

Source: http://tools.morningstarthailand.com/th/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?tab=1&Id=F000000QWJ&ClientFund=0&BaseCurrencyId=THB&CurrencyId=THB&LanguageId=th-TH

I only pick this fund as an example. There are others out there with similar performance.

Anyway, I wouldn't be too quick to write off the Thai stock market as an investment for at least part of your money.

This is a good insight -"many SET-listed companies are not run for the benefit of all shareholders".

Many times I have wondered looking at Thai SET why it is more difficult to rationalise share prices as compared to western markets - I liked your post since it seems to point to something that shows why traditional rules do not exist in Thai share pricing.

The bottom line is that you are suggesting that Thai company shareholders are not exerting pressure to maximise performance and gain value. .

I may be making a big jump here when I ask this question, but - Why is there no / little investor pressure points actively closing and correcting value gaps for Thai companies?

Obviously in many other markets - when a value gap is correctly identified - Then this information would be enough to awaken the company to respond with a defense or alignment to value

Why this is not happening in Thailand?

1. Are there legal barriers that prohibits shareholders in holding the company they invested unaccountable?

2. Is there a cultural issue in Thailand that prohibits its shareholders from asking for accountability?

3. Is there just a lack of understanding what constitutes a gap - in order to actually question a company strategic / operational delivery?

4. A feedback loop structurally does not exist and hence shareholders can not find a way to create pressure for change?

It is probably an impossible request - But would be good to hear your views

[spambot]

I would be curious if there are as many market makers and liquidity in the market here. Also I would love to see the volume of automated trading in Thailand. Perhaps these markets are just not that liquid. I'll take a look today I work for a finance company, see if I can get some details off the terminal

The stock market seems quite violative here

The problem with the Thai stock market for me is not the volatility - all stock markets are volatile, but over the longer term equities consistently outperform other asset classes such as bonds, commodities and property. In my opinion the problem is that many SET-listed companies are not run for the benefit of all shareholders. Often there is a founding family behind the scenes, or a large percentage of the shares is held by a single entities (or group of entities). That leads me to conclude that the best way to access the market is through quality active management.

One of the best active managers in this market is Aberdeen. I prefer to keep my investments offshore, and I hold Aberdeen New Thai, an investment trust listed on the London Stock Exchange. However, within Thailand (and denominated in Thai Baht) is Aberdeen Siam Leaders (fund). Over the last calendar 5 years it has returned 43.07%, 8.54%, 52.84%, -5.61%, 16.20% in Baht. Not too shabby.

Source: http://tools.morningstarthailand.com/th/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?tab=1&Id=F000000QWJ&ClientFund=0&BaseCurrencyId=THB&CurrencyId=THB&LanguageId=th-TH

I only pick this fund as an example. There are others out there with similar performance.

Anyway, I wouldn't be too quick to write off the Thai stock market as an investment for at least part of your money.

This is a good insight -"many SET-listed companies are not run for the benefit of all shareholders".

Many times I have wondered looking at Thai SET why it is more difficult to rationalise share prices as compared to western markets - I liked your post since it seems to point to something that shows why traditional rules do not exist in Thai share pricing.

The bottom line is that you are suggesting that Thai company shareholders are not exerting pressure to maximise performance and gain value. .

I may be making a big jump here when I ask this question, but - Why is there no / little investor pressure points actively closing and correcting value gaps for Thai companies?

Obviously in many other markets - when a value gap is correctly identified - Then this information would be enough to awaken the company to respond with a defense or alignment to value

Why this is not happening in Thailand?

1. Are there legal barriers that prohibits shareholders in holding the company they invested unaccountable?

2. Is there a cultural issue in Thailand that prohibits its shareholders from asking for accountability?

3. Is there just a lack of understanding what constitutes a gap - in order to actually question a company strategic / operational delivery?

4. A feedback loop structurally does not exist and hence shareholders can not find a way to create pressure for change?

It is probably an impossible request - But would be good to hear your views

Good Call - And could be a cause for both volatility and un-accountability if low Liquidity and few market makers - It will be interesting to see the outcome from your finding.

[taiping]

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Bring your money to Thailand. Buy gold.

Since the beginning of December 2014 it's gained 10%.

Do you actually buy gold bars ? and if so where do you keep them ? if you invested say a couple of million baht that's a lot of gold bars.

Not really -- Current Thai 96.5% gold price is about 19,200 baht per baht weight. So a 10 baht weight bar costs 192,000 baht.

2-million baht would be 10.4 bars of 10 baht weight gold bars. That's not much volume.

[LarryLEB]

Where can I buy gold coins in Thailand?

i.e. Krugerrands, Pandas, Maple Leafs, Eagles.

I buy Thai 96.5% gold bars and 99.99% gold bars, but gold coins?

I would advise you to AVOID gold coins entirely if buying them here in Thailand. Those coins you mentioned above (and all others) will result in your paying an additional 5%! (If you sell those coins at a later date here in Thailand, you will have 5% DEDUCTED!) I learned the hard way, but thankfully with ONLY ONE Krugerrand.

Consequently, I buy only Thai gold BARS (96.5% gold) since they offer the lowest premium to buy (100Baht per baht weight PLUS between 100 and 250Baht per baht weight depending on volume purchased = 200 to 350Baht total) and the lowest discount to sell (100Baht per baht weight).

Edited February 10, 2015 by LarryLEB

[billphillips]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Bring your money to Thailand. Buy gold.

Since the beginning of December 2014 it's gained 10%.

Do you actually buy gold bars ? and if so where do you keep them ? if you invested say a couple of million baht that's a lot of gold bars.

Not really -- Current Thai 96.5% gold price is about 19,200 baht per baht weight. So a 10 baht weight bar costs 192,000 baht.

2-million baht would be 10.4 bars of 10 baht weight gold bars. That's not much volume.

About 1.5 kilos is not too large size wise. But you won't be able to walk around with it in your pocket for long.

A I kilo bar is around 40,000 US, 27,000 UK or 1.3m TB.

Anyone that is thinking of buying gold bar in Thailand needs to satisfy themselves as to the gold % purity and that it's genuine (not a gold plated alloy bar). Gold certificates are a waste of space in my mind and security for physical gold can and will be a problem.

Having said that, it's an undeniable investment. Check the price from 2005 and you will see what I mean. The important thing to remember is that time is not of the essence. It's the price that dictates the time to sell, not the calendar.

[WorkingTourist]

Anyway it's an ongoing situation. The way to profit from a transaction is to buy low and sell high. If you are for some reason forced to sell quickly, it's Sod's law that the price will be low at that time.

I doubt that I can convince you that gold is a good investment. It seems that you may have been unlucky / unwise already.

A good investment is something you can buy, keep for several years, and then be pretty sure it has gone up in value (more than inflation).

Many ETFs have this property and will pay you a quarterly dividend.

Gold does not have this property. As you say yourself, you have to buy low and sell high. But no-one knows when that is. Is the current price low? With 90% of demand being artificial, I wouldn’t wager anything on the price of gold, and I wouldn’t want an asset in my portfolio where I have to monitor its price daily and make buy/sell decisions based on a hunch.

It’s fairly simple: The demand for non-investment gold is much lower than supply, and there is no reason to think this will change. So the only way someone else will pay more than you did is if they think someone else will pay even more (“greater fool theory”). This is what happens in bubbles, people disregard fundamental values and instead look at how much the asset has increased over the last n months/years, and think the trend will continue forever.

Just look at the statement in this thread of gold having gone up 10% this year. That says absolutely nothing about tomorrow, as the 10% is based entirely on speculation. No value has been created to explain the increase, no new industrial use of gold has affected demand, etc.

If you want to buy gold, that’s fine. But if you want to pimp it as a good investment, show me some data to backup your claims!

Why is the price going to go up? And extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, so if your argument is that the world economy is soon going to crash, then that claim needs to be backed up by data!

[roobaa01]

gdaya folks

i bought gold at us $1079,80 in 2014 and sold at us $ 1235.50 in 2015 , thats us $ 155.70 per ounce or 14.7 % .

@taiping

you can buy gold coins in silom, there are coin shops or at auction singapore, australia, thats how i do it, never paid import duty or the like.

wbr

roobaa01

[Naam]

gdaya folks

i bought gold at us $1079,80 in 2014 and sold at us $ 1235.50 in 2015 , thats us $ 155.70 per ounce or 14.7 % .

@taiping

you can buy gold coins in silom, there are coin shops or at auction singapore, australia, thats how i do it, never paid import duty or the like.

wbr

roobaa01

you bought gold in 2014 for USD 1,079 only in your wet dreams! lowest price in 2014 was USD 1,142 on november 4.

[SheungWan]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Bring your money to Thailand. Buy gold.

Since the beginning of December 2014 it's gained 10%.

Do you actually buy gold bars ? and if so where do you keep them ? if you invested say a couple of million baht that's a lot of gold bars.

Not really -- Current Thai 96.5% gold price is about 19,200 baht per baht weight. So a 10 baht weight bar costs 192,000 baht.

2-million baht would be 10.4 bars of 10 baht weight gold bars. That's not much volume.

About 1.5 kilos is not too large size wise. But you won't be able to walk around with it in your pocket for long.

A I kilo bar is around 40,000 US, 27,000 UK or 1.3m TB.

Anyone that is thinking of buying gold bar in Thailand needs to satisfy themselves as to the gold % purity and that it's genuine (not a gold plated alloy bar). Gold certificates are a waste of space in my mind and security for physical gold can and will be a problem.

Having said that, it's an undeniable investment. Check the price from 2005 and you will see what I mean. The important thing to remember is that time is not of the essence. It's the price that dictates the time to sell, not the calendar.

Time is absolutely of the essence of all investments. Unless you are already dead maybe.

[AyG]

Time is absolutely of the essence of all investments. Unless you are already dead maybe.

Surely you mean "time is absolutely of the essence of all speculation".

It's nigh on impossible to time markets, so my philosophy is to buy what looks good and hold it until it stops looking good, which usually means holding an investment for many years, if not (as with some of mine), decades. A loss of return of a few percent because I didn't invest a bit earlier or later is pretty much insignificant over such timescales.

[SheungWan]

If you want to buy a property you must just hold on for another few months (6 months to 12 months). Property has been in a bubble phase for years and are coming down fast. I would recommend that you don't put all your eggs in one basket, keep some in cash/savings account (+- 6 months expenses) invest some in 12 month fixed deposit and keep out of long term investments for now. Interest rates could go up quickly in the next year and if you are in long term investments you can lose out badly. I will not touch stocks for now as many Thai companies are exposed to USD loans/bonds and are levered too highly. The return on Thai bonds don't reflect the real risks in the country. If you have B 100 000 available invest in gold, not to make money but as an insurrance policy. People misunderstand the reason for owning gold, I don't hold gold to make more money but as a final back stop if the world markets come crashing down or if the Baht hit rock bottom against the USD. Gold have not performed well in USD and Baht terms but have a look at the increase in Yen, Euro and Ruble value over the last year. We are now past the normal crashing time for markets (on average 6 years and the last was in 2008), its time for a correction of 25% plus.

You mean the Euro, Yen and Rouble which have significantly gone down in value against the dollar. One has to smile when gold bugs retreat to chanting the mantra that gold is 'the' insurance policy........ 'er only when it is going down that is

[roobaa01]

gdaya folks

sorry making mistakes is human nature hence i ouught to correct my error for the currency miscalculation.

exactly in may 2014 i purchased kruegerrand euro 930 and them in jan 2015 for 1139 euro.

wbrroobaa01

[SheungWan]

Time is absolutely of the essence of all investments. Unless you are already dead maybe.

Surely you mean "time is absolutely of the essence of all speculation".

It's nigh on impossible to time markets, so my philosophy is to buy what looks good and hold it until it stops looking good, which usually means holding an investment for many years, if not (as with some of mine), decades. A loss of return of a few percent because I didn't invest a bit earlier or later is pretty much insignificant over such timescales.

That's not really a philosophy but rather another strategy which works until it doesn't. Going long is not a non-speculative moral position.

[billphillips]

Anyway it's an ongoing situation. The way to profit from a transaction is to buy low and sell high. If you are for some reason forced to sell quickly, it's Sod's law that the price will be low at that time.

I doubt that I can convince you that gold is a good investment. It seems that you may have been unlucky / unwise already.

A good investment is something you can buy, keep for several years, and then be pretty sure it has gone up in value (more than inflation).

Many ETFs have this property and will pay you a quarterly dividend.

Gold does not have this property. As you say yourself, you have to buy low and sell high. But no-one knows when that is. Is the current price low? With 90% of demand being artificial, I wouldn’t wager anything on the price of gold, and I wouldn’t want an asset in my portfolio where I have to monitor its price daily and make buy/sell decisions based on a hunch.

It’s fairly simple: The demand for non-investment gold is much lower than supply, and there is no reason to think this will change. So the only way someone else will pay more than you did is if they think someone else will pay even more (“greater fool theory”). This is what happens in bubbles, people disregard fundamental values and instead look at how much the asset has increased over the last n months/years, and think the trend will continue forever.

Just look at the statement in this thread of gold having gone up 10% this year. That says absolutely nothing about tomorrow, as the 10% is based entirely on speculation. No value has been created to explain the increase, no new industrial use of gold has affected demand, etc.

If you want to buy gold, that’s fine. But if you want to pimp it as a good investment, show me some data to backup your claims!

Why is the price going to go up? And extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, so if your argument is that the world economy is soon going to crash, then that claim needs to be backed up by data!

I understand and accept your criticism and reluctance to buy into gold. Unfortunately although you ask for proof / data showing the quality of investment, you yourself provide none of the same disproving it. On a personal level; I am pleased that you decline to purchase gold. I think that for you a fixed term deposit in any of the banks returning around 3% pa growth would allow you to rest more easily. For me .. I like to see growth of 10% pa or thereabouts. I am quite happy to spend 2 or 3 minutes a day to achieve that. When I invest in something / anything, I try not to set a time limit. Investments are volatile and can fall as well as rise in value. Obviously the time to sell is when the price is as high as You Think it will go. I would not be content with a return of 3% or so (secure or otherwise) it would hardly cover inflation. I do understand though that inexperienced investors cannot cope with the risks attached to high returns and for them a low and so called secure, fixed term is a more comfortable option. ( of course the bank that you place it with will invest in 10% upwards growth. It's how they make money)

Real gold can be a problem for storage but once that's sorted and set up correctly, it's really not a big issue. Likewise for currency and other physical assets. Most countries wealth is valued by the gold reserves they hold. Gold will, for the foreseeable future have, as you stated, an "artificial" value. Artificial or not ... the true value is undeniable and has been so for the last (I don't know how many) years. My personal opinion is that gold is now at a reasonably low price. That said, it will not be going up significantly at any time soon. But there are no facts or data to support that claim. Of course not.

I'm not asking for or pimping gold investments, no one can buy from me, I cannot personally gain from my advice here. I merely suggest that gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity that should be considered as a potential (but not guaranteed) high return option.

[AyG]

I merely suggest that gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity that should be considered as a potential (but not guaranteed) high return option.

In January, 1915 the price of gold was $447/oz. In February 1973 it was $406.1. Almost 60 years and the value had only fallen. (These figures are inflation-adjusted based upon http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart ).

So as for "gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity" that's just a giant crock of donkey doo-doo.

[billphillips]

I merely suggest that gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity that should be considered as a potential (but not guaranteed) high return option.

In January, 1915 the price of gold was $447/oz. In February 1973 it was $406.1. Almost 60 years and the value had only fallen. (These figures are inflation-adjusted based upon http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart ).

So as for "gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity" that's just a giant crock of donkey doo-doo.

Yes, I am sure you can pick many instances of price failure. By the same token I can pick many instances of price gain. I note that you do not quote today's price, of corse not, that would ridicule your weak argument. I urge anyone reading this thread to use Google to confirm today's price and self evaluate this posters knowledge of the real world and its workings. As far as donkey do do is concerned; myself and, I am sure, others will leave you to be the uncontested expert in such matters. Any seriously interested readers will quickly ridicule your pathetic knowledge and understanding of investments including your inability to see further than your donkeys arse.

[Sandman77]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102422821

[WorkingTourist]

I understand and accept your criticism and reluctance to buy into gold. Unfortunately although you ask for proof / data showing the quality of investment, you yourself provide none of the same disproving it.

If there is no data showing that the price of gold is likely to go up, then what is there to disprove?

I do understand though that inexperienced investors cannot cope with the risks attached to high returns

Inexperienced investors are not identified by people unwilling to gamble with their money, on the contrary. And the level of risk associated with gold is not required to get a good return on your investment.

the bank that you place it with will invest in 10% upwards growth. It's how they make money

The core business of a bank is to lend out money at a higher interest rate.

Artificial or not ... the true value is undeniable and has been so for the last (I don't know how many) years. My personal opinion is that gold is now at a reasonably low price. That said, it will not be going up significantly at any time soon

I don’t know what it means that the true value is undeniable. I also don’t understand how you can think the price is low but won’t go up. The price is dictated by demand. If you do not expect demand to go up, how can you say the price is low? Are you looking at gold as a jewelry and think that gold jewelry is cheaper than other jewelry of similar status?

My guess is that you think it’s low because the price is 30% lower than its high a few years ago.

I think gold should be seen as a reserve currency, not as an investment vehicle. The price of it goes up when there is demand for a reserve currency, and it goes down once the demand is over.

The previous spike can easily be explained by this theory: following the crisis people wanted out of the stock market partly because of the uncertainty about which companies were affected by the toxic assets and partly because of the recession (the market reflects our expectations of the future, so when the future looks bad, the market goes down), people didn’t want their money in the bank (because banks were going bankrupt left and right), and t-bills were also a concern because of quantitive easing (which theoretically should result in devaluation of the USD, as we now see in Europe).

I’m hesitant to say the crisis is over, but people are back in stocks, so the demand for a safe haven has decreased.

This year’s 10% increase can also be explained by Europe’s QE.

Of course once the price of gold goes up, due to the extra demand for a safe haven, the “investors” join the party and will inflate the price further, adding to its overall volatility.

[SheungWan]

I merely suggest that gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity that should be considered as a potential (but not guaranteed) high return option.

In January, 1915 the price of gold was $447/oz. In February 1973 it was $406.1. Almost 60 years and the value had only fallen. (These figures are inflation-adjusted based upon http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart ).

So as for "gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity" that's just a giant crock of donkey doo-doo.

Yes, I am sure you can pick many instances of price failure. By the same token I can pick many instances of price gain. I note that you do not quote today's price, of corse not, that would ridicule your weak argument. I urge anyone reading this thread to use Google to confirm today's price and self evaluate this posters knowledge of the real world and its workings. As far as donkey do do is concerned; myself and, I am sure, others will leave you to be the uncontested expert in such matters. Any seriously interested readers will quickly ridicule your pathetic knowledge and understanding of investments including your inability to see further than your donkeys arse.

If one is able to recognise that prices can go down as well as up for substantial periods of time, then the concept of gold as a safe haven is no longer valid. It is even less valid for retirees who may find themselves in a downward period and less time to sit out a drop plus losing income which is the lifeblood for retirees. Even a donkey's arse might appreciate that more than a blind bat.

[AyG]

I merely suggest that gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity that should be considered as a potential (but not guaranteed) high return option.

In January, 1915 the price of gold was $447/oz. In February 1973 it was $406.1. Almost 60 years and the value had only fallen. (These figures are inflation-adjusted based upon http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart ).

So as for "gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity" that's just a giant crock of donkey doo-doo.

Yes, I am sure you can pick many instances of price failure. By the same token I can pick many instances of price gain. I note that you do not quote today's price, of corse not, that would ridicule your weak argument. I urge anyone reading this thread to use Google to confirm today's price and self evaluate this posters knowledge of the real world and its workings. As far as donkey do do is concerned; myself and, I am sure, others will leave you to be the uncontested expert in such matters. Any seriously interested readers will quickly ridicule your pathetic knowledge and understanding of investments including your inability to see further than your donkeys arse.

OK, I'll quote the current price: $1227.90.

So, in the 100 years from 1915 the prices has risen 174%. That's an implied compound return of just under 1.02%/year, which, quite frankly is pathetic.

So, the characteristics of gold include:

- Extremely long periods (decades) with the price going nowhere

- Sharp spikes in price followed by rapid collapse (such as the late 70s/early 80s, and again in the early years of this decade)

- No income

- Arbitrary valuation based purely on demand

There's nothing there that makes gold qualify as a sensible investment, and nothing that makes it relevant to the topic, which is "Stable baht investments".

(As a side note, an argument used by gold advocates is that it's useful when the world is going to hell. If this were true I'd have expected the gold price to rise during 1939-45, WWII being the worst of times in the last century. It didn't. It actually fell from 590.25 (Aug '39) to 461.72 (Apr '45) - a 22% decline.)

So, rather than waste your time insulting me, why don't you explain why you think "gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity"?

[billphillips]

I merely suggest that gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity that should be considered as a potential (but not guaranteed) high return option.

In January, 1915 the price of gold was $447/oz. In February 1973 it was $406.1. Almost 60 years and the value had only fallen. (These figures are inflation-adjusted based upon http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart ).

So as for "gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity" that's just a giant crock of donkey doo-doo.

Yes, I am sure you can pick many instances of price failure. By the same token I can pick many instances of price gain. I note that you do not quote today's price, of corse not, that would ridicule your weak argument. I urge anyone reading this thread to use Google to confirm today's price and self evaluate this posters knowledge of the real world and its workings. As far as donkey do do is concerned; myself and, I am sure, others will leave you to be the uncontested expert in such matters. Any seriously interested readers will quickly ridicule your pathetic knowledge and understanding of investments including your inability to see further than your donkeys arse.

If one is able to recognise that prices can go down as well as up for substantial periods of time, then the concept of gold as a safe haven is no longer valid. It is even less valid for retirees who may find themselves in a downward period and less time to sit out a drop plus losing income which is the lifeblood for retirees. Even a donkey's arse might appreciate that more than a blind bat.

Ahhhh. and there we have it! Don't have much money and need or depend on a regular return / income.

Yes, I understand now. Don't buy gold, or anything else. Investments are not really for people on a shoestring budget. Put your money in a fixed term deposit that will pay interest at set periods, it's safer. Tax free government bonds are out too.

By the way ... I never suggested that gold is a safe haven. That must have been someone else. Who's blind now?

Enjoy your donkey.

[billphillips]

I merely suggest that gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity that should be considered as a potential (but not guaranteed) high return option.

In January, 1915 the price of gold was $447/oz. In February 1973 it was $406.1. Almost 60 years and the value had only fallen. (These figures are inflation-adjusted based upon http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart ).

So as for "gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity" that's just a giant crock of donkey doo-doo.

Yes, I am sure you can pick many instances of price failure. By the same token I can pick many instances of price gain. I note that you do not quote today's price, of corse not, that would ridicule your weak argument. I urge anyone reading this thread to use Google to confirm today's price and self evaluate this posters knowledge of the real world and its workings. As far as donkey do do is concerned; myself and, I am sure, others will leave you to be the uncontested expert in such matters. Any seriously interested readers will quickly ridicule your pathetic knowledge and understanding of investments including your inability to see further than your donkeys arse.

OK, I'll quote the current price: $1227.90.

So, in the 100 years from 1915 the prices has risen 174%. That's an implied compound return of just under 1.02%/year, which, quite frankly is pathetic.

So, the characteristics of gold include:

- Extremely long periods (decades) with the price going nowhere

- Sharp spikes in price followed by rapid collapse (such as the late 70s/early 80s, and again in the early years of this decade)

- No income

- Arbitrary valuation based purely on demand

There's nothing there that makes gold qualify as a sensible investment, and nothing that makes it relevant to the topic, which is "Stable baht investments".

(As a side note, an argument used by gold advocates is that it's useful when the world is going to hell. If this were true I'd have expected the gold price to rise during 1939-45, WWII being the worst of times in the last century. It didn't. It actually fell from 590.25 (Aug '39) to 461.72 (Apr '45) - a 22% decline.)

So, rather than waste your time insulting me, why don't you explain why you think "gold is a very real and easily achieved investment opportunity"?

Yes, I see your point and accept your argument. I too have no time for "the world going to hell " argument. Agreed, there is no interim return. Agreed, that as an investment, the return could be low (or even negative).

On the plus side, purchase is straightforward (and in small amounts if required) at most high street gold retailers (in Thailand). Likewise for the sale, small amounts can be cashed as and when a need arises. No broker or bank has to be used or paid to assist.

Iv included a graph showing the last 40 years of performance, you have to agree, it's an impressive return o/a but clearly it's a roller coaster. Much the same as any investments .. Substantial losses as well as gains can be made.

Earlier in this thread I responded to the op ... Bring your money to Thailand and buy gold .... or something along those lines. A stable Baht investment???? That can't be a serious question in view of the current situation surely. I think it will become worse before it improves. The situation can only worsen when the unthinkable (and unmentionable) day arrives. Maybe a movable physical investment now becomes a more realistic option and arguably therefore more stable.

Iv heard of foreigners investing in : land, houses, apartments, businesses and worst of all .. bars. As far as I'm concerned these could not be considered stable. In fact I would say they are extremely unstable (for a foreigner) and the entire investment could easily be lost. Iv heard far too many tales of woe.

Bank or broker managed stock or bond investments ... Thailand and stable don't mix too well just now, as mentioned before.

So anyway that's my thoughts ... And that's all they are .... My thoughts, based on investment performance, environment circumstances, transferability and ease of purchase/sale. If someone disagrees, it's ok. This forum is for sharing opinions and ideas. The one thing I don't hear much of is alternate options to investments. I would be very interested to hear of something worthwhile.

[billphillips]

I understand and accept your criticism and reluctance to buy into gold. Unfortunately although you ask for proof / data showing the quality of investment, you yourself provide none of the same disproving it.

If there is no data showing that the price of gold is likely to go up, then what is there to disprove?

I do understand though that inexperienced investors cannot cope with the risks attached to high returns

Inexperienced investors are not identified by people unwilling to gamble with their money, on the contrary. And the level of risk associated with gold is not required to get a good return on your investment.

the bank that you place it with will invest in 10% upwards growth. It's how they make money

The core business of a bank is to lend out money at a higher interest rate.

Artificial or not ... the true value is undeniable and has been so for the last (I don't know how many) years. My personal opinion is that gold is now at a reasonably low price. That said, it will not be going up significantly at any time soon

I don’t know what it means that the true value is undeniable. I also don’t understand how you can think the price is low but won’t go up. The price is dictated by demand. If you do not expect demand to go up, how can you say the price is low? Are you looking at gold as a jewelry and think that gold jewelry is cheaper than other jewelry of similar status?

My guess is that you think it’s low because the price is 30% lower than its high a few years ago.

I think gold should be seen as a reserve currency, not as an investment vehicle. The price of it goes up when there is demand for a reserve currency, and it goes down once the demand is over.

The previous spike can easily be explained by this theory: following the crisis people wanted out of the stock market partly because of the uncertainty about which companies were affected by the toxic assets and partly because of the recession (the market reflects our expectations of the future, so when the future looks bad, the market goes down), people didn’t want their money in the bank (because banks were going bankrupt left and right), and t-bills were also a concern because of quantitive easing (which theoretically should result in devaluation of the USD, as we now see in Europe).

I’m hesitant to say the crisis is over, but people are back in stocks, so the demand for a safe haven has decreased.

This year’s 10% increase can also be explained by Europe’s QE.

Of course once the price of gold goes up, due to the extra demand for a safe haven, the “investors” join the party and will inflate the price further, adding to its overall volatility.

Well I'm not sure that I or others can follow your train of thought. After reading your ramblings my thoughts were .... And your point is?

[WorkingTourist]

Well I'm not sure that I or others can follow your train of thought. After reading your ramblings my thoughts were .... And your point is?

Ramblings? That’s a rather derogatory term.

I’ll try again: My point is that gold should be considered a currency.

But a currency where there is no underlying economy that can be used to estimate its value.

For example if we have reason to think that the British economy will grow faster than the rest of Europe, then buying sterling is a good investment (relative to the euro), although in practice we would buy British bonds or stocks in the companies we think will be responsible for the economic growth.

With gold we lack the underlying economy to create value, so in good times, gold is a bad place for your money, as historically it’ll just keep up with inflation.

That said, the lack of an underlying economy is also what makes gold less prone to economic crisis, which for some have made it a favorite hedge against bad times, which is why we get the spikes whenever there is a crisis, and these spikes are then used to make claims about the value of gold as a good investment, but look at the bigger picture, and the world economy grows much faster than the price of gold.

According to this article written two years ago, i.e. before gold dropped 30% and the S&P 500 gained (another) 44%, the S&P 500 (with reinvested dividends) grew 13.5 times faster than gold (since 1979): http://www.marottaonmoney.com/since-1979-the-sp-500-grew-13-5-times-greater-than-the-price-of-gold/

And I consider the S&P 500 a fairly low-risk investment, even the S&P mid cap 400 index is not that risky, yet it outperforms the full index.