SET index could reach 1800 points

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SET index could reach 1800 points
ERICH PARPART
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- ASSET MANAGERS said the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index still has a chance to hit 1700 and even 1800 basis points this year even though the Bank of Thailand last week revised down its projection for growth of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) from 4 per cent to 3.8 per cent because of the slower than expected economic recovery.

Meanwhile, Krungsri Asset Management has plans to expand its asset under management (AUM) by 22 per cent by concentrating on expansion through Krungsri Bank's customers and the introduction of new products that would better suit the current investment environment.

Krungsri Asset's chief executive officer, Chatrapee Tantixalerm, said he expects the asset manager to increase its AUM from Bt270 billion at the end of 2014 to Bt330 billion by the end of 2015. The products that have contributed the most to the 37 per cent AUM expansion last year were dividend stocks and long-term equity funds, both of which are the largest in the industry.

The asset manager has increased the number of its new accounts by 31 per cent last year.

Krungsri Asset expects the SET index this year to be at a wide range between 1300 and 1700 basis points but the index has a chance to reach 1800 if it can establish it base at 1400. Nevertheless, the fund manager is still wary that supportive factors such as government spending might not be as good as expected and the index would most likely be able to establish it base at 1350 basis points. This means that the index would probably end the year at around 1700 instead of the widely hoped 1800 basis points.

Kasikorn Asset Management (KAsset) also expects the SET index to end the year with 1700 basis points. The fund managers still have a positive vibe about the growth of Thai stocks, which are expected to get a boost from increased public spending on investment infrastructures and the government's budget acceleration process.

KAsset's first senior vice president of investment management, Thidasiri Srisamith, said Thai stocks still have a more attractive price compared to others in the region, which means there is still room for profit growth.

She said that even though the economic climate is currently negative, the country's economic foundations are still sound and the lower price of oil should contribute positively to the performance of the listed companies, except those in the energy sector. So, she expects the economy to continue with its recovery while it is supported by the expected increase in government spending.

Thidasiri said stocks that would benefit from government investment in infrastructures were those related to real estate development, construction materials, contractors and logistics.

Krungthai Asset Management (KTAM) said the recent slump of the index means it is a good time for the asset manager to provide the expected returns since many assets outperformed and have the potential to grow at an even greater rate this year.

KTAM's Chief Executive Officer, Chavinda Hanratanakool, said the overall domestic consumption has shown positive signs in the past two quarters and the expected results from the government stimulus measures means that the Thai economy will continue to recover while the globally low interest rate and the quantitative easing policies in Europe and Japan means that capital will seek risky assets and the fund manager expects the SET to end 2015 with 1680 basis points.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/SET-index-could-reach-1800-points-30256533.html


-- The Nation 2015-03-23

[canopus1969]

The Nation has just issued an apology - this article was posted 9 days too early.

[MacWalen]

1700 points is definitely possible but 1800 this year is harder to imagine.

[scoutman360]

What miracle is in the works to make this happen? Anyone check the trend lately?

[midas]

What miracle is in the works to make this happen? Anyone check the trend lately?

[Chriso12]

Rather weak month for the SET as it always struggles with the 1600 level. It hit that barrier 2 times already and then retreated clearly from it. If that resistance can be broken 1800 might be an option. This earnings season was as expected horrendously terrible and it will be a number game for the next two quarters. If the numbers from TAT and AOT (Airports of Thailand) are correct then tourism could be a driver for this year. However where those hordes of tourists are supposed to be is still questionable...pretty quiet where I am.

As shocking as it sounds condo sales from major developers are picking up very nicely after a poor year. Many brokers recommend picking up stocks from Sansiri and Quality Houses. Personally residential property is one sector I would rather stay away from...as opposed to retail property in Bangkok which I am rather bullish.

If 1500 and especially 1476 will break it looks fairly grim.

My personal picks since many years already: BTS, AOT, BECL, CPN, MAJOR and CPNRF Only invest in Thailand as a mean to diversify...I know a couple of expats that use thai equities as their prime strategy, which I would rather be careful with.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Chriso12

[fletchsmile]

Yes I think SET will struggle for 1700. If it hits 1800 I'd actually be worried as that would be seriously overvalued vs. the way earnings are panning out.

There were about 10 trading days in Feb were SET closed above 1600 and 1615 was the number it couldnt breach and hold as a resistance level.

Have had a nice time though on SET50 options. 1064 was a similar sort of level for SET50 resistance. So I enjoyed selling calls at 1100 and especially 1125. Nice premium income and profits by selling OTM calls at 3.4% to 5.6% above that resistance level and reasonably confident it wouldnt get close

Harder to see from here, but with SET50 around 1000 now I really cant see it even breaching 1075 before end June never mind 1100 or 1125. So happy to continue selling calls if there's a small bounce back. Wouldnt like to bet heavily on it not going below 950 or falling another 5% from here in next quarter. Hope 1000-ish can hold tho'.

So for SET really can't see what would push it even towards or above 1615 before June. 1700 if it comes would be later 2nd half. 1800 think not!

Cheers

Fletch

Edited March 26, 2015 by fletchsmile