Thai private sector upbeat on export in H2

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EXPORT
Private sector upbeat on export in H2
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation


Pornsilp Patchrintanakul

BANGKOK: -- The private sector is optimistic that exports will bounce back in the second half of this year due to higher imports of raw materials, despite the shrinking of shipments in the first two months.

Also, exports of the real sector - meaning agriculture and industry - have not weakened as much as figures seem to show, since they are dominated by gold and oil, which do not do much for the whole economy.

Exports contracted for another month in February by 6.1 per cent- which is the lowest growth in six months since August - to US$17.22 billion (Bt558.29 billion), according to the Commerce Ministry's figures released yesterday.

Exports in the first two months dropped by 4.8 per cent to $34.47 billion. However, imports in February grew slightly by 1.5 per cent to $16.83 billion, while the total for two months declined 6.7 per cent to $34.54 billion.

Thailand was locked into a trade deficit of $66.3 million in the first two months, even though February produced a trade surplus of $390.2 million on the increase in imports.

Pornsilp Patchrintanakul, adviser to the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said Thai shipments were held back by the economic slowdown worldwide, especially in China, Japan and the European Union.

"Excluding volatile oil and gold, the shrinking of export shipments is acceptable amid the global sluggishness. Thai shipments could go back to a surplus situation in the second half of the year on the expected recovering of the global economy," he said.

Exports of the real sector [without oil and gold] dropped last month by 2.4 per cent year on year.

Pornsilp urged the government to accelerate sales of rice and rubber from its stocks.

Exports are down largely due to the decelerating growth of agriculture and agro-industry shipments.

Farm sector reform urged

In the long run, the farm sector needs to be restructured to balance supply and demand. The glut has led to falling prices of crops.

Vallop Vitanakorn, vice chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said Thai shipments were impacted by the plunge in oil prices and lower exports of by-products from oil, as well as lower trading of gold.

The economies of many trading partners, especially China, the European Union, Japan and Asean, were stuttering.

Only the economy in the United States has recovered and shown higher demand for imports, which will help promote Thai shipments slightly.

Thai exports would continue softening this month, as there are no festive or celebration activities to stimulate global trade.

However, the global economy and Thai exports are expected to recover in the second half on expected higher oil prices, while more imports of raw materials and semi-raw materials would support manufacturing growth in the near future, he added.

Kosit Panpiemras, executive chairman of Bangkok Bank, said shipments this year would not expand like last year due to continuing falling prices of crops, while spending power worldwide has been blunted by the global slowdown.

Chutima Bunyapraphasara, permanent secretary of the Commerce Ministry, said that despite lower export growth, the ministry would need to monitor the market trend for a while before revising down the shipment target for this year.

The ministry will maintain its forecast for this year at 4-per-cent expansion, even though other agencies have projected growth at only 1.5-2.5 per cent.

The ministry reported that last month the oil price in the world market slipped 47 per cent to $54.9 per barrel from the same month last year.

The baht also strengthened slightly to 32.22 against the greenback.

Last month, shipments of agricultural and agro-industry products dropped 12.5 per cent, while shipments of industrial goods slid slightly 3.7 per cent year on year.

Sales to many international markets were down last month, except to the US, where they were up 5.1 per cent. Thai shipments sagged 11.7 per cent to Japan, 4.7 per cent to the EU and 15.1 per cent to China.

Exports to Russia almost dried up, plummeting by 62.7 per cent, due to the weakening of the rouble.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Private-sector-upbeat-on-export-in-H2-30256829.html


-- The Nation 2015-03-27

[Srikcir]

"Only the economy in the United States has recovered and shown higher demand for imports, which will help promote Thai shipments slightly."

- Exports to Russia almost dried up

- Thai shipments sagged 11.7 per cent to Japan, 4.7 per cent to the EU and 15.1 per cent to China

But Prayut continues to slam the US for its perceived intrusion into Thailand internal affairs and continues to align trading and security pacts with China and Russia. The military regime is just so mirred in confusion and Prayut's erratic personal agendas that it seems incapable to conduct any successful and sustainable foreign trading policy.

There is nothing upbeat for Thai exports through 2015Q3 and quite possible through 2015Q4. Thailand is looking at a virtual flat GDP growth for 2015 which will cause a constriction of the domestic economy close to deflation. Prayut might try reapproachment with the US and lose its new Russian and Chinese partners for the sake of saving the economy for the Thai people. But he might rationalize that with a collapsed economy the military must remain in power to protect national security.