rijit Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Personally i think it will get stronger, thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkksteve123 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Do you mean in relation to the Thai Baht? I certainly wouldn't expect a surge. I personally feel that the Pound Sterling is overvalued in relation to the Euro and the USD. Why? In reality the purchasing power of 1£ in the UK is more or less the same as 1€ in most Western Euro countries (look at rents, groceries, dining out, transport etc), same applies for the GBP/USD. Thus from a long-term perspective they should be at parity or else there would be a type of arbitrage in many markets (not financial). The near £/€ 1.35-1.40 mark is already a bit of a stretch. So, most likely if the EUR decreases, the GBP will follow and the gap might close a bit in the long-term. They are closely linked economies (EURO zone and UK) and tend to move hand in hand most of the time. This is just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert24 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I think the pound will be strong relative to the Euro, mainly for the reason because the economy is quite strong and the BoE will follow soon after the FED with interest rate hikes which will make the pound stronger. Whereas the Euro will stay weak because the ECB will leave interest rates at 0 for a while to come and continue to print money well into 2016. So in summary: Long $, Long pound, short Yen, short Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vivananahuahin Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 nobody know just the big power manipulate the Forex it is all,be clever and dont wait too long if the euro or GBP are coming higher,2 months ago 10% lower for the euro(34,1 bath and now 37.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaimlord Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Hi Please my friend, don't listen to anyone. Nobody knows. And I mean NOBODY. To know this you would need to know in advance the sum of all of the effects of the collective thoughts, fears and finally actions of every person involved in the markets. Add to that the calamities, acts of god, acts of terrorism, etc, etc. It goes on. If fund managers with billions of dollars at their behest and the smartest brains in the world can't figure it out, it would an act of colossal stupidity for any of us on Thai Visa to imagine we had these answers. TL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazykopite Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 If we knew we would all be millionaires by playing the currency game as for me I am only concerned how the £ competes with the baht the weaker the $ US against the £ means more baht in my pocket as the baht works alongside the $ . In a few years time the Euro could be a thing of the past because if Greece pulls out or is kicked out others will follow , Spain, Portugal and Cyprus come to mind ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijit Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Me i reckon the pounds gonna get stronger over the next couple of years not sure it'll ever reach 2006 ish levels we live in hope !!!! but the euro staggering uk economy supposedly 'recovering' . Stable gov' 4 me all help and point to a resurgance of sorts. rijit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
venturer Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Weak Euro will hurt UK exports to the Euro countries which will weaken the £stg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaurene Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 When the Euro weakens it is 100% sure that all other major currencies will show bit more strength. So sterling will be bit stronger against it. Unless sterling has a problem at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timendres Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Do you mean in relation to the Thai Baht? I certainly wouldn't expect a surge. I personally feel that the Pound Sterling is overvalued in relation to the Euro and the USD. Why? In reality the purchasing power of 1£ in the UK is more or less the same as 1€ in most Western Euro countries (look at rents, groceries, dining out, transport etc), same applies for the GBP/USD. Thus from a long-term perspective they should be at parity or else there would be a type of arbitrage in many markets (not financial). The near £/€ 1.35-1.40 mark is already a bit of a stretch. So, most likely if the EUR decreases, the GBP will follow and the gap might close a bit in the long-term. They are closely linked economies (EURO zone and UK) and tend to move hand in hand most of the time. This is just my opinion. In general, currencies are only marginally valued by their purchasing power. One might think arbitrage would enforce this, but it does not. Currencies are driven much more by the central banks and their policies, as well as the supply and demand profile of their exchange, primarily bonds, but also stocks as well and inter-country balance of trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Weak Euro will hurt UK exports to the Euro countries which will weaken the £stg.not a major player the Euro zone ,the world is our oyster, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little mary sunshine Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Oh, where is that crystal ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1FinickyOne Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 As posted by Thaimlord Please my friend, don't listen to anyone. Nobody knows. And I mean NOBODY. any information that is known is already factored into the price… that said, the Euro has looked vulnerable for a while now - though it has been hit pretty hard, there could be more to go including a collapse… But - as it stands, these currencies are fluidly traded so everything is at fair market value… bet as you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asiantravel Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I think the pound will be strong relative to the Euro, mainly for the reason because the economy is quite strong and the BoE will follow soon after the FED with interest rate hikes which will make the pound stronger. Whereas the Euro will stay weak because the ECB will leave interest rates at 0 for a while to come and continue to print money well into 2016. So in summary: Long $, Long pound, short Yen, short Euro. "mainly for the reason because the economy is quite strong " Another one that has drunk the Kool-Aid Britain is only " growing " thanks to consumer spending, which was the biggest source of GDP growth in 2014. But real incomes are now stagnating and much of this spending has been put on the credit card with consumer borrowing at its highest level since 2008 crisis. http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/16/news/economy/uk-election-economy-fact-check/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I'm not skilled in the art, but would have thought that so long as EU is continuing QE where USA left off, it won't be able to get stronger. Perhaps if THB deliberately tries to weaken then it might be better for EU people staying here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beechboy Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 A much expected interest rate hike in the UK will help Sterling, slightly. Both the UK and Thailand are relatively stable at the moment, for vastly different reasons, so this augurs well for the immediate health of both currencies Stability does sit far more comfortably in the UK than in Thailand, however, so, if we are looking to the medium term, I would favour Sterling to gain, again slightly. The Euro referendum might lead to concerns, but not nearly as many as those that might manifest themselves if Prayut's grip unravels, for one reason or another. Gold is on the up at the moment, but I wouldn't have a clue as to how to buy it in bulk, where to keep it or just how many Tiger beers I can get for one bar. (Yes! I know that it's usually a paper, or digital transaction these days.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 If the need for physical gold manifests then I think all Gov't currencies will have taken a severe beating to reach that stage (EUR/USD/GBP/THB and most of the others). I watched a youtube video earlier today that claimed COMEX is only holding about 4% deliverable, and they are not concerned because nobody would ever ask for physical to be delivered in the futures market... Until one day they do, then tie yourself to the mast as the storm approaches and just hope the ship doesn't sink. I don't hold any metals at the moment, I'm more into cryptos for their flexibility inter-country, but I certainly would never refuse it if offered in a transaction for product/service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I think the pound will be strong relative to the Euro, mainly for the reason because the economy is quite strong and the BoE will follow soon after the FED with interest rate hikes which will make the pound stronger. Whereas the Euro will stay weak because the ECB will leave interest rates at 0 for a while to come and continue to print money well into 2016. So in summary: Long $, Long pound, short Yen, short Euro. looking at the chart then "long USD, short JPY is only for investors with balls made of Titanium" comes to my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Weak Euro will hurt UK exports to the Euro countries which will weaken the £stg.not a major player the Euro zone ,the world is our oyster, exports mainly "bitter orange marmalade" as well as "steak-and-kidney pie" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 This joke makes sense if you understand that interest rates drive currency valuations:One day, Albert Eisenstein got in the elevator at Princeton. There was an elevator operator, and they had this conversation:Einstein - Good afternoon, lovely day!Einstein - (cough) - I said, "Good afternoon, lovey day" How are you?Elevator Operator - (Staring at his feet) mumble mumble mumbleEinstein - Have I offended you in some way?Elevator Operator - Not at all sir, I am just a bit intimidated .. I mean, you are the smartest person EVER ...what could you and i possibly have a conversation about? Einstein - we can always talk about the future direction of interest rates ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 This joke makes sense if you understand that interest rates drive currency valuations: One day, Albert Eisenstein got in the elevator at Princeton. There was an elevator operator, and they had this conversation: Einstein - Good afternoon, lovely day! Einstein - (cough) - I said, "Good afternoon, lovey day" How are you? Elevator Operator - (Staring at his feet) mumble mumble mumble Einstein - Have I offended you in some way? Elevator Operator - Not at all sir, I am just a bit intimidated .. I mean, you are the smartest person EVER ...what could you and i possibly have a conversation about? Einstein - we can always talk about the future direction of interest rates ! or exchange rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MockingJay Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I'd most definitely say that there is a high possibility of uncertainty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sawadee1947 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 When the Euro weakens it is 100% sure that all other major currencies will show bit more strength. So sterling will be bit stronger against it. Unless sterling has a problem at the same time. of course the sterling will have a massive problem if the referendum's votes will opt to leave EU. Then...Good Night, Britain, good bye sterling ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijit Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 I dont think so more than likely veiwed as a positive, national strength stabilty ect.ect.all the things a market loves. rijit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmosis Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 It really is a crap shoot ! If you can factor in that globally Governments have added $57 trillion to their debt burden since 2007 via quantitative easing etc (a debt-to- GDP ratio increase of 17%) then just imagine what will happen as major currency interest rates begin to increase. The price fluctuations in the Bond market last October is a case in point. The 0.4 percent swing in US Treasuries back on October 15th was an event that was supposed to occur once every 3 billion years or so according to JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijit Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Everyone makes it so complicated Does something look attractive and likely people will want it in the future? yes, prices goes up , no price goes down. rijit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pheat123 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 If we knew we would all be millionaires by playing the currency game as for me I am only concerned how the £ competes with the baht the weaker the $ US against the £ means more baht in my pocket as the baht works alongside the $ . In a few years time the Euro could be a thing of the past because if Greece pulls out or is kicked out others will follow , Spain, Portugal and Cyprus come to mind !Most people on TV are millionaires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijit Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 If we knew we would all be millionaires by playing the currency game as for me I am only concerned how the £ competes with the baht the weaker the $ US against the £ means more baht in my pocket as the baht works alongside the $ . In a few years time the Euro could be a thing of the past because if Greece pulls out or is kicked out others will follow , Spain, Portugal and Cyprus come to mind !Most people on TV are millionaires Been told the bbc dont pay THAT Well. rijit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 If we knew we would all be millionaires by playing the currency game as for me I am only concerned how the £ competes with the baht the weaker the $ US against the £ means more baht in my pocket as the baht works alongside the $ . In a few years time the Euro could be a thing of the past because if Greece pulls out or is kicked out others will follow , Spain, Portugal and Cyprus come to mind !Most people on TV are millionaires when holidaying in Viet Nam or Indonesia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Weak Euro will hurt UK exports to the Euro countries which will weaken the £stg.not a major player the Euro zone ,the world is our oyster, exports mainly "bitter orange marmalade" as well as "steak-and-kidney pie" You forgot the marmite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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