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Min of Commerce to continue palm oil price intervention scheme

BANGKOK, 24 July 2015 (NNT) – The Ministry of Commerce is poised to continue its intervention scheme to prop up palm oil prices, despite a recent oversupply.

Commerce Minister Gen. Chatchai Sarikulya insisted that intervention buying is necessary to help oil palm growers, although a number of refineries are beginning to struggle with exports, due to more competitive products from Malaysia. Falling fuel prices in the global market have also forced down prices of alternative energy accordingly.

Under the scheme, the suggested price of palm kernels with 17-percent oil content is 4.20 baht per kg. That of raw palm oil is 26 baht per kg. The Public Warehouse Organization is tasked with stocking up on raw palm oil.

To enforce intervention buying, Gen. Chatchai led a team of officials down to southern Thailand to visit one of the biggest oil refineries in Surat Thani province, where he restated the objectives of the scheme to operators and agriculturists. In turn, he heard their problems and suggestions.

Gen. Chatchai assured them the ministry will devise solutions to their problems as soon as possible, adding that he has also instructed provincial internal trade offices to prevent illegal imports from the neighboring country.


-- NNT 2015-07-24

[BigBadGeordie]

Deja Vu!

Continued intervention in the market, drop in prices, oversupply and illegal imports from other countries.

Just sustitute the words "palm oil" with the word "rice" in the above article!

We all know what a resounding success that scam was!

[Bob12345]

Deja Vu!

Continued intervention in the market, drop in prices, oversupply and illegal imports from other countries.

Just sustitute the words "palm oil" with the word "rice" in the above article!

We all know what a resounding success that scam was!

The poor rice farmers were entitled to those handouts as they voted for the right party. Just as the rich palmoil moguls now want their pay for helping with the demonstrations and blocking of polling stations.

Its the same all over again, only the shirt color of the government changed.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

Deja Vu!

Continued intervention in the market, drop in prices, oversupply and illegal imports from other countries.

Just sustitute the words "palm oil" with the word "rice" in the above article!

We all know what a resounding success that scam was!

The poor rice farmers were entitled to those handouts as they voted for the right party. Just as the rich palmoil moguls now want their pay for helping with the demonstrations and blocking of polling stations.

Its the same all over again, only the shirt color of the government changed.

When the rice farmers got high prices these palm oil farmers also got subsidies. As most of these palm oil farmers are in the south their subsidies was continued vs the rice farmers that got screwed again.

[halloween]

Yesterday a small spend of <B1000 at Tesco gave me a docket with 2 x B10 discount vouchers foe edible palm oil, quite a discount on a product normally sold at around B30/l.

BTW no, I don't use the muck.

[BuaBS]

Oh no ! They 're going to put more of that crap in diesel again? I don't dare to go to the gasstation because of the high levels of palm-crap-oil in it. I hoped the 70.000 tons of it would be used up by now.

This sh-- is bad for engines over 6-7 years.

[Thai at Heart]

Anyone dare say blatant populism?

[BirdsandBooze]

This should keep S T happy.

[halloween]

A few minor differences, like it won't cost B700+ billion, it won't cost a fortune to store, and it won't rot. And while they are paying above the CURRENT world price, it is still far from 50% above the pre-slump price. And there is a reasonable chance they might even make a profit on the deal as the world economy returns to normal.

Minor differences indeed.

Negligence is negligence, its not okay as long as it stays under B700+ billion, is cheap to store, or can't rot.

Reasonable chance they make a profit? If thats the case Thailand should stop levying taxes and should become the commodities speculation hub of the world. The middle east has oil? Hahaha. We have knowledge of future commodity prices and earn much more with that. Palm oil, rubber, rice, we know the prices years ahead... *rolleyes*

But who says it is negligence - you? How much do you expect the loss from this program to be? Is the financial press deriding the idea?

Our last "democratic" government was the commodity speculator, with an idiotic scheme to corner the market in rice. I support treating farming as a business, allowing the inefficient to fail, but I also understand price support in a temporary market slump. There is little similarity in that to over-price encouraging increased production during a glut.

Edited July 25, 2015 by halloween

[Bob12345]

I support treating farming as a business, allowing the inefficient to fail, but I also understand price support in a temporary market slump.

So you "understand" price support but don't support it, right?

[halloween]

I support treating farming as a business, allowing the inefficient to fail, but I also understand price support in a temporary market slump.

So you "understand" price support but don't support it, right?

Not quite. Allowing an industry to collapse due to a market slump is understandably counter-productive. The cost of support has to balanced against the greater good, and where judged to be reasonable I support limited market intervention.

[Bob12345]

I support treating farming as a business, allowing the inefficient to fail, but I also understand price support in a temporary market slump.

So you "understand" price support but don't support it, right?

Not quite. Allowing an industry to collapse due to a market slump is understandably counter-productive. The cost of support has to balanced against the greater good, and where judged to be reasonable I support limited market intervention.

And how exactly would the government (or anybody) know if this is a temporary market slump or the beginng of the end of high demand/prices?

(Hint: nobody knows as you can only determine this afterwards)

[halloween]

Not quite. Allowing an industry to collapse due to a market slump is understandably counter-productive. The cost of support has to balanced against the greater good, and where judged to be reasonable I support limited market intervention.

And how exactly would the government (or anybody) know if this is a temporary market slump or the beginng of the end of high demand/prices?

(Hint: nobody knows as you can only determine this afterwards)

Well, geez, Bob, you have regular revues and if the policy is costing too much, you cancel it. If Yingluk had done that she wouldn't be facing negligence charges.

You might even ask an economist or six if the policy makes logical sense and whether the market slump is likely to be temporary, prolonged or permanent, ask a few accountants about the estimated cost over each scenario, and adjust policy to suit. That beats the crap out of some megalomaniac gambling with public money with the sure knowledge that he will benefit by getting his proxy elected.

[bamnutsak]

Under the scheme, the suggested price of palm kernels with 17-percent oil content is 4.20 baht per kg. That of raw palm oil is 26 baht per kg. The Public Warehouse Organization is tasked with stocking up on raw palm oil.

I love "schemes".

Seriously, what's the plan here? How much will they buy? Over what time period? How much will they pay to store it? Who "owns" it" How will they sell it off?

Oh right. This "regime" doesn't have to answer questions about their "schemes".

Maybe better to just pay your constituency (rubber, palm oil) to not grow a specific crop? It will cost less.

[Bob12345]

Not quite. Allowing an industry to collapse due to a market slump is understandably counter-productive. The cost of support has to balanced against the greater good, and where judged to be reasonable I support limited market intervention.

And how exactly would the government (or anybody) know if this is a temporary market slump or the beginng of the end of high demand/prices?

(Hint: nobody knows as you can only determine this afterwards)

Well, geez, Bob, you have regular revues and if the policy is costing too much, you cancel it. If Yingluk had done that she wouldn't be facing negligence charges.

You might even ask an economist or six if the policy makes logical sense and whether the market slump is likely to be temporary, prolonged or permanent, ask a few accountants about the estimated cost over each scenario, and adjust policy to suit. That beats the crap out of some megalomaniac gambling with public money with the sure knowledge that he will benefit by getting his proxy elected.

Ask an economist or six if it makes sense and they probably will all indicate that the government should not buy and stockpile commodities for this purpose.

[halloween]

Well, geez, Bob, you have regular revues and if the policy is costing too much, you cancel it. If Yingluk had done that she wouldn't be facing negligence charges.

You might even ask an economist or six if the policy makes logical sense and whether the market slump is likely to be temporary, prolonged or permanent, ask a few accountants about the estimated cost over each scenario, and adjust policy to suit. That beats the crap out of some megalomaniac gambling with public money with the sure knowledge that he will benefit by getting his proxy elected.

Ask an economist or six if it makes sense and they probably will all indicate that the government should not buy and stockpile commodities for this purpose.

You are getting very boring. Would they advocate allowing a viable industry to collapse or some form of intervention? How would allowing product to rot and mills to shut down give a higher benefit than stockpiling for a product with a reasonable long shelf life? why would there be a permanent collapse of market for a product with so many varied uses?

[Bob12345]

Well, geez, Bob, you have regular revues and if the policy is costing too much, you cancel it. If Yingluk had done that she wouldn't be facing negligence charges.

You might even ask an economist or six if the policy makes logical sense and whether the market slump is likely to be temporary, prolonged or permanent, ask a few accountants about the estimated cost over each scenario, and adjust policy to suit. That beats the crap out of some megalomaniac gambling with public money with the sure knowledge that he will benefit by getting his proxy elected.

Ask an economist or six if it makes sense and they probably will all indicate that the government should not buy and stockpile commodities for this purpose.

You are getting very boring. Would they advocate allowing a viable industry to collapse or some form of intervention? How would allowing product to rot and mills to shut down give a higher benefit than stockpiling for a product with a reasonable long shelf life? why would there be a permanent collapse of market for a product with so many varied uses?

I dont want to bore you explaining there are alternative ways for governments to support farmers than buying up products themselves; for example by reimbursing the difference between a guaranteed price and the market price as Abhisit had for rice (less overproduction, no stockpiles in government hands, lower prices for consumers).

But thats all too boring for you, so never mind...

[halloween]

Well, geez, Bob, you have regular revues and if the policy is costing too much, you cancel it. If Yingluk had done that she wouldn't be facing negligence charges.

You might even ask an economist or six if the policy makes logical sense and whether the market slump is likely to be temporary, prolonged or permanent, ask a few accountants about the estimated cost over each scenario, and adjust policy to suit. That beats the crap out of some megalomaniac gambling with public money with the sure knowledge that he will benefit by getting his proxy elected.

Ask an economist or six if it makes sense and they probably will all indicate that the government should not buy and stockpile commodities for this purpose.

You are getting very boring. Would they advocate allowing a viable industry to collapse or some form of intervention? How would allowing product to rot and mills to shut down give a higher benefit than stockpiling for a product with a reasonable long shelf life? why would there be a permanent collapse of market for a product with so many varied uses?

I dont want to bore you explaining there are alternative ways for governments to support farmers than buying up products themselves; for example by reimbursing the difference between a guaranteed price and the market price as Abhisit had for rice (less overproduction, no stockpiles in government hands, lower prices for consumers).

But thats all too boring for you, so never mind...

So now your in favour of market intervention, just opposed to the method? Based on whose cost/benefit analysis?

Cash handouts are a definite loss. Stockpiling may cost less in the short term, could even be profitable, depending on how soon the market rebounds. Of course, selling the stockpile may well delay return to full price, but surely farmers can hardly bitch about that when they are getting support when it is needed..

[lildragon]

Deja Vu!

Continued intervention in the market, drop in prices, oversupply and illegal imports from other countries.

Just sustitute the words "palm oil" with the word "rice" in the above article!

We all know what a resounding success that scam was!

The poor rice farmers were entitled to those handouts as they voted for the right party. Just as the rich palmoil moguls now want their pay for helping with the demonstrations and blocking of polling stations.

Its the same all over again, only the shirt color of the government changed.

And we all know who one of the biggest palm oil moguls in Thailand is now don't we?

Funny that.

[metisdead]

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed as well as the replies.

[Bob12345]

Well, geez, Bob, you have regular revues and if the policy is costing too much, you cancel it. If Yingluk had done that she wouldn't be facing negligence charges.

You might even ask an economist or six if the policy makes logical sense and whether the market slump is likely to be temporary, prolonged or permanent, ask a few accountants about the estimated cost over each scenario, and adjust policy to suit. That beats the crap out of some megalomaniac gambling with public money with the sure knowledge that he will benefit by getting his proxy elected.

Ask an economist or six if it makes sense and they probably will all indicate that the government should not buy and stockpile commodities for this purpose.

You are getting very boring. Would they advocate allowing a viable industry to collapse or some form of intervention? How would allowing product to rot and mills to shut down give a higher benefit than stockpiling for a product with a reasonable long shelf life? why would there be a permanent collapse of market for a product with so many varied uses?

I dont want to bore you explaining there are alternative ways for governments to support farmers than buying up products themselves; for example by reimbursing the difference between a guaranteed price and the market price as Abhisit had for rice (less overproduction, no stockpiles in government hands, lower prices for consumers).

But thats all too boring for you, so never mind...

So now your in favour of market intervention, just opposed to the method? Based on whose cost/benefit analysis?

Cash handouts are a definite loss. Stockpiling may cost less in the short term, could even be profitable, depending on how soon the market rebounds. Of course, selling the stockpile may well delay return to full price, but surely farmers can hardly bitch about that when they are getting support when it is needed..

I am not in favour of market interventuon for palm oil, but if the government decides to intervene they should pick the best method to do it.

What cost/benefit analysis?

Basic economics and an understanding of the demand/supply curve which is similar for most (agricultural) products

[halloween]

I am not in favour of market interventuon for palm oil, but if the government decides to intervene they should pick the best method to do it.

What cost/benefit analysis?

Basic economics and an understanding of the demand/supply curve which is similar for most (agricultural) products

Who says that they haven't picked the best intervention method? That is, besides you?

Treating palm oil as a normal agricultural product doesn't inspire confidence, as it has multiple uses and extended shelf life. The elasticity curve for it as a food is very different to that as a fuel.

[Bob12345]

I am not in favour of market interventuon for palm oil, but if the government decides to intervene they should pick the best method to do it.

What cost/benefit analysis?

Basic economics and an understanding of the demand/supply curve which is similar for most (agricultural) products

Who says that they haven't picked the best intervention method? That is, besides you?

Treating palm oil as a normal agricultural product doesn't inspire confidence, as it has multiple uses and extended shelf life. The elasticity curve for it as a food is very different to that as a fuel.

I dont want to bore you further, so maybe you can read up a bit how different government intervention methods influence the demand and supply curves.

All your questions are covered in basic economic textbooks on this subject.

[halloween]

I am not in favour of market interventuon for palm oil, but if the government decides to intervene they should pick the best method to do it.

What cost/benefit analysis?

Basic economics and an understanding of the demand/supply curve which is similar for most (agricultural) products

Who says that they haven't picked the best intervention method? That is, besides you?

Treating palm oil as a normal agricultural product doesn't inspire confidence, as it has multiple uses and extended shelf life. The elasticity curve for it as a food is very different to that as a fuel.

I dont want to bore you further, so maybe you can read up a bit how different government intervention methods influence the demand and supply curves.

All your questions are covered in basic economic textbooks on this subject.

But only you have declared it uneconomic, right?

[bamnutsak]

But only you have declared it uneconomic, right?

Economic, schmeconomic.

The "scheme" price, 26 baht/Kg is roughly double the current world commodity price.

Unless you know something we don't know - and no, you cannot make that up on volume - then it's safe to say that this scheme is uneconomic.

Especially when you factor in additional transportation and storage costs.

Now tell yourself the coup was all about reducing the violins in the street.

[halloween]

But only you have declared it uneconomic, right?

Economic, schmeconomic.

The "scheme" price, 26 baht/Kg is roughly double the current world commodity price.

Unless you know something we don't know - and no, you cannot make that up on volume - then it's safe to say that this scheme is uneconomic.

Especially when you factor in additional transportation and storage costs.

Now tell yourself the coup was all about reducing the violins in the street.

If you had provided a link, i may have accepted your claim. Instead I did my own research and found it to be BS. In the last 6 months palm oil has traded between B21,200 and B22,400 at current exchange rates, and around half its 5 year peak. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=palm-oil

Is that half of B26,000? B26000 equates to US$740, and except for the last 12 months palm oil has traded well above that, often at US$1200+.

[bamnutsak]

Instead I did my own research and found it to be BS.

Don't be so hard on yourself; I'm sure your research is not BS.

I did make a mistake...

Scheme is ~ 742 USD/MT, current price is ~ 605 USD/MT, futures are lower.

Still, even with my error, hard to figure out how this is "economic"? Are from Greece?

Yes, palm oil has traded both higher, and lower, than current values in the past.

[halloween]

Instead I did my own research and found it to be BS.

Don't be so hard on yourself; I'm sure your research is not BS.

I did make a mistake...

Scheme is ~ 742 USD/MT, current price is ~ 605 USD/MT, futures are lower.

Still, even with my error, hard to figure out how this is "economic"? Are from Greece?

Yes, palm oil has traded both higher, and lower, than current values in the past.

Until the GFC, it regularly traded $900+ , on occasions reaching $1200+. As it has strong anti-oxidant properties, it has a long shelf life, and I see it as a reasonable risk to maintain what was a viable industry.

I'm not an economist though. If you can find a reputable one, or financial media who say this is madness, I will happily capitulate to their judgement. Don't quote the world's smartest criminal.

[Down the rabbit hole]

Not quite. Allowing an industry to collapse due to a market slump is understandably counter-productive. The cost of support has to balanced against the greater good, and where judged to be reasonable I support limited market intervention.

And how exactly would the government (or anybody) know if this is a temporary market slump or the beginng of the end of high demand/prices?

(Hint: nobody knows as you can only determine this afterwards)

Well, geez, Bob, you have regular revues and if the policy is costing too much, you cancel it. If Yingluk had done that she wouldn't be facing negligence charges.

You might even ask an economist or six if the policy makes logical sense and whether the market slump is likely to be temporary, prolonged or permanent, ask a few accountants about the estimated cost over each scenario, and adjust policy to suit. That beats the crap out of some megalomaniac gambling with public money with the sure knowledge that he will benefit by getting his proxy elected.

I assume you meant 'review'? A revue is something different but it may have been an entertaining Freudian slip.

Reading the above, it seems you think economists and accountants can predict whether a slump is temporary or not. Surely if that's the case, then business ought to be responsible for having a contingency plan and not to expect a tax-payer bail-out? Or is that against some strangely brillianttheory which the world at present thinks is just voodoo accounting/economics? Might work if you spend enough time making merit at the local temple or in front of a 30-year-old picture...

Edited July 25, 2015 by Down the rabbit hole

[Down the rabbit hole]

Well, geez, Bob, you have regular revues and if the policy is costing too much, you cancel it. If Yingluk had done that she wouldn't be facing negligence charges.

You might even ask an economist or six if the policy makes logical sense and whether the market slump is likely to be temporary, prolonged or permanent, ask a few accountants about the estimated cost over each scenario, and adjust policy to suit. That beats the crap out of some megalomaniac gambling with public money with the sure knowledge that he will benefit by getting his proxy elected.

Ask an economist or six if it makes sense and they probably will all indicate that the government should not buy and stockpile commodities for this purpose.

Would they advocate allowing a viable industry to collapse or some form of intervention? How would allowing product to rot and mills to shut down give a higher benefit than stockpiling for a product with a reasonable long shelf life? why would there be a permanent collapse of market for a product with so many varied uses?

You are getting very boring.

Translation: You aren't agreeing with me, which I couldn't quite understand. Since I support Prayuth and am therefore a good man who cannot be wrong, you must be thick. Pay more attention. I thought everyone knew that...

Would they advocate allowing a viable industry to collapse or some form of intervention?

Translation: Even businesses that cannot survive a temporary slump are perfectly viable. If they support the right people.

Sorry, I couldn't translate the rest, it didn't quite make any sense. You know you've been in Thailand too long when <fill in your own criterion>.

Edited July 25, 2015 by Down the rabbit hole