Thai Baht likely to weaken further this week

[chiang mai]

Right know it is 35.40 real time you can check out link also show other currencies http://www.forexdirectory.net/thb.html

Not long to go now and it will be back to 40B = $1.

Only in your dreams Jessi, only in your dreams.

[IMA_FARANG]

You need to consider that the recent devaluation in the Chinese Yuan (the last 3 days) will affect the imports and exports from Thailand to China.

That will affect the Thai Baht rate also as Thai exports to China will likely drop as will the income from Chinese tourists coming to Thailand..

And of course a devalued Chines Yuan will affect Aussie commodity sales to China, which may weaken the Aussie dollar.

[Thai at Heart]

I still cannot see why the effects in the UK or USA are fundamentally different. QE is QE.

At the end of the day, the liquidity of the market is changed and long terms rates are modified. Liquid assets(cash) are supplied to the market in return for long term assets.

The supply of money is increased. Yes m1, m2, been there done that. For everyone who claims QE isn't increasing the money supply there is another claiming it is. Yours is not the only valid opinion because u shout loudest.

The USD has weakened because liquidity has been pumped in via QE. Turn it off and the USD will strengthen.

"I still cannot see why the effects in the UK or USA are fundamentally different. QE is QE."

Of course you can't see it and QE in one place isn't QE in another based on local laws, policies, and philosophies. The UK loans itself money by issuing bonds and then buying them itself - a feat you don't want to try at home. This is not at all how its done in the US because it's illegal and you were talking about the US "printing money" when you didn't even know you were talking about currency. Its the UK that's running itself into a ditch with a national debt to GDP ratio that's almost as high as the US but without the engine to sustain it. The UK doesn't have the buyers for its bonds that the US does so it - wait for this - buys them itself.

"At the end of the day, the liquidity of the market is changed and long terms rates are modified. Liquid assets(cash) are supplied to the market in return for long term assets."

That's not true and you should give it up. I already told you that the increased liquidity comes from allowing banks to loan a higher percentage of depositors' money. That has nothing to do with long term rates. Current rates are influenced, not set, by what the Fed offers to pay at its Overnight Window, influencing banks to either lend to the Fed or to the marketplace. When banks are awash with liquidity due to changed regulations, they want to loan that money. The Fed won't pay much so the banks compete for actual loans in the general marketplace, lowering interest rates. End of.

(The Fed lends money to banks that are over loaned and borrows from banks that have excess capital at its overnight window to keep bank liquidity in balance and banks within regulation. It's the bankers' bank.)

The supply of money is increased. Yes m1, m2, been there done that. For everyone who claims QE isn't increasing the money supply there is another claiming it is. Yours is not the only valid opinion because u shout loudest.

If you'd "been there done that" you'd know that M1 and M2 are the measure of the money supply and that's not just my opinion. You are simply wrong. You said the Fed was printing money which would affect the currency supply but it hasn't, and now you want to say that this falsehood has something to do with the money supply which it doesn't.

If the Fed raises interest rates and tightens up the amount of depositors' money banks can loan the money supply will shrink. Increasing the money supply is temporary and is done to stimulate. That money supply shrinks when the Fed stops QE and raises interest rates.

The USD has weakened because liquidity has been pumped in via QE. Turn it off and the USD will strengthen.

The USD has weakened? It has been strengthening against the standard basket of currencies ever since the Fed began QE after the debacle of 2007 - 2008!! If/when the Fed raises interest rates by tightening credit back up in banks while offering to pay more interest at its Overnight Window, the value of the USD normally would increase even more.

You're up against a real banker while trying to be an internet bright guy and to me you are completely off base. I'm not writing this for your benefit but rather in case anyone else might be interested. You aren't teachable.

Cheers.

Now I'm out of this thread because you wear me out. You're too much work and I write this only in case someone else is interested because I don't see where you will learn anything.

Bye.

If you think that all that's been happening in the USA is the fed has been allowing banks to lend more to the market that is wrong.

Direct from the economist again

To carry out QE central banks create money by buying securities, such as government bonds, from banks, with electronic cash that did not exist before. The new money swells the size of bank reserves in the economy by the quantity of assets purchased—hence "quantitative" easing. Like lowering interest rates, QE is supposed to stimulate the economy by encouraging banks to make more loans. The idea is that banks take the new money and buy assets to replace the ones they have sold to the central bank

They have been putting liquid assets into the market in exchange illiquid assets. I will take the word of the economist to surmise that in effect there is no fundamental difference between what has occurred in the USA or UK.

And yes, UK has a horrible debt to gdp ratio like the USA. Neither can be repaid without devaluing in the long run.. One saving grace the UK has over other European nations is that it's terms of borrowing are much longer than say France or Italy.

It has been able to push the problem into the long grass.

now what you're thinking - so the Fed is creating money not printing it, big deal. Well you're right, it's a matter of semantics

From another blog. The idea that qe isn't increasing the money supply in the long run, is very open to debate. U have your idea.. I have mine.

Either way, having had QE for this long, currencies will strengthen when it stops.

Of course the USD has been strengthening against everything since the crisis in 2008. It was a crisis. Cutting off qe keeps threatening to strengthen it even more quickly.

[yuv06]

UTCC: Thai Economy Boosted By Declining Corruption http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/wn/newsworld.php?id=1161484