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Devaluation of Chinese Yuan: Thai exports could take a hit


webfact

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They need at least 7% to absorb graduates and prevent unemployment booming.

the sun will not stop shining even if China's growth is zero. "they need at least..." applies to many countries (e.g. look at youth unemployment in Europe, especially Spain, Portugal and Greece) not to mention a bunch of "emerging" countries where this problem exists not only since a few years but since decades.

Well yes, but the numbers for China are gargantuan and whilst it maybe only a theory, nothing good has ever come out of having millions of graduate who can't find jobs requisite to their qualifications. Even more so, when your only option is to put up and shut up.

I all of those other countries there has been political upheaval, change and reform to match the atmosphere of the moment. The issue isn't youth unemployment in China per se, the issue is what happens in China if enough people get p******d off with the CCP?

What choice do they really have? There are other political parties in China, but all are vetted by and must accept the leadership of the CPC as a condition of their existence. I guess these graduates can "get p******d off" at being unemployed, but that won't change anything. Moreso than in most other countries experiencing slow or no or negative growth these days, dissent really isn't much of an option in the PRC, and serious unrest is unlikely. I think the music has stopped in China, and now there simply aren't enough seats for everyone. (Gee, I guess children's games really are practice for real life ...)

Well, u tell me what people do when they get passed off with a government they can't change?

Can the CCP keep millions of graduates who can't find jobs happy with no safety net and no voice? I am not saying this is all it takes to cause upheaval in China, but a fundamental reason the CCP has survived has been it's ability to deliver ever increasing standards of living to most.

What happens if enough people don't buy into the CCP dream?

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They need at least 7% to absorb graduates and prevent unemployment booming.

the sun will not stop shining even if China's growth is zero. "they need at least..." applies to many countries (e.g. look at youth unemployment in Europe, especially Spain, Portugal and Greece) not to mention a bunch of "emerging" countries where this problem exists not only since a few years but since decades.

The sun may still rise but it would be a very dark and gloomy place. And I doubt that anyone would want to contemplate the prospect of China needing to repatriate some of the TRILLIONS they hold in the US.

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the sun will not stop shining even if China's growth is zero. "they need at least..." applies to many countries (e.g. look at youth unemployment in Europe, especially Spain, Portugal and Greece) not to mention a bunch of "emerging" countries where this problem exists not only since a few years but since decades.

Well yes, but the numbers for China are gargantuan and whilst it maybe only a theory, nothing good has ever come out of having millions of graduate who can't find jobs requisite to their qualifications. Even more so, when your only option is to put up and shut up.

I all of those other countries there has been political upheaval, change and reform to match the atmosphere of the moment. The issue isn't youth unemployment in China per se, the issue is what happens in China if enough people get p******d off with the CCP?

What choice do they really have? There are other political parties in China, but all are vetted by and must accept the leadership of the CPC as a condition of their existence. I guess these graduates can "get p******d off" at being unemployed, but that won't change anything. Moreso than in most other countries experiencing slow or no or negative growth these days, dissent really isn't much of an option in the PRC, and serious unrest is unlikely. I think the music has stopped in China, and now there simply aren't enough seats for everyone. (Gee, I guess children's games really are practice for real life ...)

Well, u tell me what people do when they get passed off with a government they can't change?

Can the CCP keep millions of graduates who can't find jobs happy with no safety net and no voice? I am not saying this is all it takes to cause upheaval in China, but a fundamental reason the CCP has survived has been it's ability to deliver ever increasing standards of living to most.

What happens if enough people don't buy into the CCP dream?

"Well, u tell me what people do when they get passed off with a government they can't change?"

Uh, get run over by tanks? (Unless like good little communists they keep their mouths shut about it and stay home.) The govt will just blame it on the capitalist west or whatever, undertake some new aggression in the S. China sea to demonstrate Chinese superiority & distract the masses, remind everyone that they must remain loyal & dedicated, and life will go on.

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the sun will not stop shining even if China's growth is zero. "they need at least..." applies to many countries (e.g. look at youth unemployment in Europe, especially Spain, Portugal and Greece) not to mention a bunch of "emerging" countries where this problem exists not only since a few years but since decades.

Well yes, but the numbers for China are gargantuan and whilst it maybe only a theory, nothing good has ever come out of having millions of graduate who can't find jobs requisite to their qualifications. Even more so, when your only option is to put up and shut up.

I all of those other countries there has been political upheaval, change and reform to match the atmosphere of the moment. The issue isn't youth unemployment in China per se, the issue is what happens in China if enough people get p******d off with the CCP?

What choice do they really have? There are other political parties in China, but all are vetted by and must accept the leadership of the CPC as a condition of their existence. I guess these graduates can "get p******d off" at being unemployed, but that won't change anything. Moreso than in most other countries experiencing slow or no or negative growth these days, dissent really isn't much of an option in the PRC, and serious unrest is unlikely. I think the music has stopped in China, and now there simply aren't enough seats for everyone. (Gee, I guess children's games really are practice for real life ...)

Well, u tell me what people do when they get passed off with a government they can't change?

Can the CCP keep millions of graduates who can't find jobs happy with no safety net and no voice? I am not saying this is all it takes to cause upheaval in China, but a fundamental reason the CCP has survived has been it's ability to deliver ever increasing standards of living to most.

What happens if enough people don't buy into the CCP dream?

"Well, u tell me what people do when they get passed off with a government they can't change?"

Uh, get run over by tanks? (Unless like good little communists they keep their mouths shut about it and stay home.) The govt will just blame it on the capitalist west or whatever, undertake some new aggression in the S. China sea to demonstrate Chinese superiority & distract the masses, remind everyone that they must remain loyal & dedicated, and life will go on.

If one considers moving to more freedom and democracy as progress then what I would do if I was CCP to keep the people happy might be to...

A. Move towards more freedom step by step.

B. Get out people's livesquite so much.

If the populous is miserable, they will eventually turn on the govt. So they will probably give more freedom to the people and slowly liberalise society.

All good. Otherwise, they risk, having millions of very unhappy people around. And the last thing CCP wants to do in the age of the Internet is start shooting people.

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They need at least 7% to absorb graduates and prevent unemployment booming.

the sun will not stop shining even if China's growth is zero. "they need at least..." applies to many countries (e.g. look at youth unemployment in Europe, especially Spain, Portugal and Greece) not to mention a bunch of "emerging" countries where this problem exists not only since a few years but since decades.

The sun may still rise but it would be a very dark and gloomy place. And I doubt that anyone would want to contemplate the prospect of China needing to repatriate some of the TRILLIONS they hold in the US.

I think the US Government would love to hand them their Trillion dollars in a great big sack and tell them to go buy something (US made) with it...

Edited by sfokevin
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The aussies cry for a drop of 1%, as a big desaster :-)) funny,

Euro last years dropped against US$ for 30%

( reason of US cold war on Europes stability )

I saw no on cried, and we all are still alive !!

( Ok, some gamblers on borse lost - as they should, as they are rsponsible for all this shit and troubles )

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I'm afraid that it is simply mathematically impossible for every country to gain a competitive trade advantage by devaluing their currencies. They're all trying though...

Well the USA and GBP are appreciating. Trade in usd makes up about 100 Thailand so, plenty of space to take the strain.

Depreciating to a trade advantage is a stupid policy. Productivity gain is real progress. The rest is just fluff.

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I'm afraid that it is simply mathematically impossible for every country to gain a competitive trade advantage by devaluing their currencies. They're all trying though...

Well the USA and GBP are appreciating. Trade in usd makes up about 100 Thailand so, plenty of space to take the strain.

Depreciating to a trade advantage is a stupid policy. Productivity gain is real progress. The rest is just fluff.

"Trade in usd makes up about 100 Thailand so, plenty of space to take the strain."

Not sure what you're saying here. China is Thailand's #1 trading partner, and devaluing the yuan has made imports from Thailand more expensive which is what the OP was about. What is this "plenty of space to take the strain" you're talking about? Reference to USD as the international reserve currency (if that's what you're talking about) has little if anything to do with this.

"Depreciating to a trade advantage is a stupid policy."

Didn't China practice that very policy for years and years??

"Productivity gain is real progress."

Very very true, but we're talking about Thailand here ... (Here's an IMF working paper for anyone interested.)

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I'm afraid that it is simply mathematically impossible for every country to gain a competitive trade advantage by devaluing their currencies. They're all trying though...

Well the USA and GBP are appreciating. Trade in usd makes up about 100 Thailand so, plenty of space to take the strain.

Depreciating to a trade advantage is a stupid policy. Productivity gain is real progress. The rest is just fluff.

"Trade in usd makes up about 100 Thailand so, plenty of space to take the strain."

Not sure what you're saying here. China is Thailand's #1 trading partner, and devaluing the yuan has made imports from Thailand more expensive which is what the OP was about. What is this "plenty of space to take the strain" you're talking about? Reference to USD as the international reserve currency (if that's what you're talking about) has little if anything to do with this.

"Depreciating to a trade advantage is a stupid policy."

Didn't China practice that very policy for years and years??

"Productivity gain is real progress."

Very very true, but we're talking about Thailand here ... (Here's an IMF working paper for anyone interested.)

The USD can handle these movements in currencies, the baht feels the movement very hard. That is what I meant.

I would say that china's extended policy of keeping the yuan undervalued is the root of the 2008 crisis and the euro problem. Devaluing to an advantage is a stupid policy in the long run because capital becomes mjsallocated eventually. Across the entire Chinese economy money, loans and capital has now been misallocated because rates have been too low for too long.

Now the currency has appreciated and exports have started to tail off.

Thailand can't hope to devalue itself to prosperity any more than China. So the baht has devalued, now the reminbi.

Did Thailand gain anything? Nope. Just higher cost of oil imports. All those on here praying for a devaluation to boost exports.

Bad luck. China just stole your fire.

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Not me. A rather respected economist.

'Don't care who's schlepping what. China did it again, today. That's a fact - source provided.

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Not me. A rather respected economist.

'Don't care who's schlepping what. China did it again, today. That's a fact - source provided.

Well the fact is, as the article points out, this is quite a risky strategy because it may export deflation around the world at a time when western economies have run out of ways to inflate their economy.

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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

YOU originally said, "China cannot risk the global chaos of currency devaluation".

I merely pointed out that they DID and they ARE.

If you really need a comment, it would be that to expect China to do the rational, visionary, globally responsible thing is unrealistic, but most readers could probably devine that by reading between the lines... You're bound & determined to have a go, but I'm really not disagreeing with you about the lack of wisdom WRT Chinese currency valuation policies, past & present.

There. All better now?

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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

YOU originally said, "China cannot risk the global chaos of currency devaluation".

I merely pointed out that they DID and they ARE.

If you really need a comment, it would be that to expect China to do the rational, visionary, globally responsible thing is unrealistic, but most readers could probably devine that by reading between the lines... You're bound & determined to have a go, but I'm really not disagreeing with you about the lack of wisdom WRT Chinese currency valuation policies, past & present.

There. All better now?

I quoted a headline as food for thought. I would say that the absolute outcome of this is as yet undecided. One commentator says there is a risk of global deflation. A very serious problem

China does what China believes is in China interest. In this case there maybe unintended consequences.

Nothing in your posts led me to believe u agreed with me at all. U could be a CCP member cheering on the devaluation for all I know.

Screw the world, we're going to take all manufacturing to guang Zhou....

Edited by Thai at Heart
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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

YOU originally said, "China cannot risk the global chaos of currency devaluation".

I merely pointed out that they DID and they ARE.

If you really need a comment, it would be that to expect China to do the rational, visionary, globally responsible thing is unrealistic, but most readers could probably devine that by reading between the lines... You're bound & determined to have a go, but I'm really not disagreeing with you about the lack of wisdom WRT Chinese currency valuation policies, past & present.

There. All better now?

I quoted a headline as food for thought. I would say that the absolute outcome of this is as yet undecided. One commentator says there is a risk of global deflation. A very serious problem

China does what China believes is in China interest. In this case there maybe unintended consequences.

Nothing in your posts led me to believe u agreed with me at all. U could be a CCP member cheering on the devaluation for all I know.

Screw the world, we're going to take all manufacturing to guang Zhou....

Lol. I notice you "edited" your post after "two in a row" became "three" ... 5555555 Good move!

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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

YOU originally said, "China cannot risk the global chaos of currency devaluation".

I merely pointed out that they DID and they ARE.

If you really need a comment, it would be that to expect China to do the rational, visionary, globally responsible thing is unrealistic, but most readers could probably devine that by reading between the lines... You're bound & determined to have a go, but I'm really not disagreeing with you about the lack of wisdom WRT Chinese currency valuation policies, past & present.

There. All better now?

I quoted a headline as food for thought. I would say that the absolute outcome of this is as yet undecided. One commentator says there is a risk of global deflation. A very serious problem

China does what China believes is in China interest. In this case there maybe unintended consequences.

Nothing in your posts led me to believe u agreed with me at all. U could be a CCP member cheering on the devaluation for all I know.

Screw the world, we're going to take all manufacturing to guang Zhou....

Lol. I notice you "edited" your post after "two in a row" became "three" ... 5555555 Good move!

Didn't touch anything. Anyway, they intervened to stop it moving too far. Interesting time.

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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

YOU originally said, "China cannot risk the global chaos of currency devaluation".

I merely pointed out that they DID and they ARE.

If you really need a comment, it would be that to expect China to do the rational, visionary, globally responsible thing is unrealistic, but most readers could probably devine that by reading between the lines... You're bound & determined to have a go, but I'm really not disagreeing with you about the lack of wisdom WRT Chinese currency valuation policies, past & present.

There. All better now?

I quoted a headline as food for thought. I would say that the absolute outcome of this is as yet undecided. One commentator says there is a risk of global deflation. A very serious problem

China does what China believes is in China interest. In this case there maybe unintended consequences.

Nothing in your posts led me to believe u agreed with me at all. U could be a CCP member cheering on the devaluation for all I know.

Screw the world, we're going to take all manufacturing to guang Zhou....

Lol. I notice you "edited" your post after "two in a row" became "three" ... 5555555 Good move!

Didn't touch anything. Anyway, they intervened to stop it moving too far. Interesting time.

1zgarz5.gif BS. There's even an "edited by" annotation on your post putting the lie to that. Nice try. So much for credibility ...

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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

YOU originally said, "China cannot risk the global chaos of currency devaluation".

I merely pointed out that they DID and they ARE.

If you really need a comment, it would be that to expect China to do the rational, visionary, globally responsible thing is unrealistic, but most readers could probably devine that by reading between the lines... You're bound & determined to have a go, but I'm really not disagreeing with you about the lack of wisdom WRT Chinese currency valuation policies, past & present.

There. All better now?

I quoted a headline as food for thought. I would say that the absolute outcome of this is as yet undecided. One commentator says there is a risk of global deflation. A very serious problem

China does what China believes is in China interest. In this case there maybe unintended consequences.

Nothing in your posts led me to believe u agreed with me at all. U could be a CCP member cheering on the devaluation for all I know.

Screw the world, we're going to take all manufacturing to guang Zhou....

Lol. I notice you "edited" your post after "two in a row" became "three" ... 5555555 Good move!

Didn't touch anything. Anyway, they intervened to stop it moving too far. Interesting time.

1zgarz5.gif BS. There's even an "edited by" annotation on your post putting the lie to that. Nice try. So much for credibility ...

Haven't looked at this thread. For 2 days. May have been a spelling mistake or something. Didn't change anything about the threads at all.

Where did I change anything to note 3 days? Edits can only be done for something like 10 minutes anyway.

Edited by Thai at Heart
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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

YOU originally said, "China cannot risk the global chaos of currency devaluation".

I merely pointed out that they DID and they ARE.

If you really need a comment, it would be that to expect China to do the rational, visionary, globally responsible thing is unrealistic, but most readers could probably devine that by reading between the lines... You're bound & determined to have a go, but I'm really not disagreeing with you about the lack of wisdom WRT Chinese currency valuation policies, past & present.

There. All better now?

I quoted a headline as food for thought. I would say that the absolute outcome of this is as yet undecided. One commentator says there is a risk of global deflation. A very serious problem

China does what China believes is in China interest. In this case there maybe unintended consequences.

Nothing in your posts led me to believe u agreed with me at all. U could be a CCP member cheering on the devaluation for all I know.

Screw the world, we're going to take all manufacturing to guang Zhou....

Lol. I notice you "edited" your post after "two in a row" became "three" ... 5555555 Good move!

Didn't touch anything. Anyway, they intervened to stop it moving too far. Interesting time.

1zgarz5.gif BS. There's even an "edited by" annotation on your post putting the lie to that. Nice try. So much for credibility ...

Haven't looked at this thread. For 2 days. May have been a spelling mistake or something. Didn't change anything about the threads at all.

Where did I change anything to note 3 days? Edits can only be done for something like 10 minutes anyway.

"Didn't touch anything."

LOL. Climbing down now are we? cheesy.gif

Edited by hawker9000
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Risky or no,

two days in a row.

Well, saying it happened 2 days in a row with no commentary isn't very stimulating is it.

The sun came up today and yesterday also.

It is a risky thing to have done. The entire mess we have today has been caused by the Chinese refusing to allow their currency to rise, thus lending the USD back to the market at low rates to prevent the reminbi from appreciating.

The housing mortgage bubble, credit bubble ALL stem from this imbalance in global credit. Now there is a global risk of deflation.

Yeah, they devalued it twice. It's quite serious actually

YOU originally said, "China cannot risk the global chaos of currency devaluation".

I merely pointed out that they DID and they ARE.

If you really need a comment, it would be that to expect China to do the rational, visionary, globally responsible thing is unrealistic, but most readers could probably devine that by reading between the lines... You're bound & determined to have a go, but I'm really not disagreeing with you about the lack of wisdom WRT Chinese currency valuation policies, past & present.

There. All better now?

I quoted a headline as food for thought. I would say that the absolute outcome of this is as yet undecided. One commentator says there is a risk of global deflation. A very serious problem

China does what China believes is in China interest. In this case there maybe unintended consequences.

Nothing in your posts led me to believe u agreed with me at all. U could be a CCP member cheering on the devaluation for all I know.

Screw the world, we're going to take all manufacturing to guang Zhou....

Lol. I notice you "edited" your post after "two in a row" became "three" ... 5555555 Good move!

Didn't touch anything. Anyway, they intervened to stop it moving too far. Interesting time.

1zgarz5.gif BS. There's even an "edited by" annotation on your post putting the lie to that. Nice try. So much for credibility ...

Haven't looked at this thread. For 2 days. May have been a spelling mistake or something. Didn't change anything about the threads at all.

Where did I change anything to note 3 days? Edits can only be done for something like 10 minutes anyway.

LOL. Climbing down now are we? cheesy.gif

No. I didn't change anything on here at all that I remember. If it was it didn't change any of the meaning of what I said. And if I did change it, it couldn't have been about the fact that they devalued for 3 days since that would have been after the ability to edit closed.

So, what's your point? What changed? I certainly can't remember. Probably was a spelling mistake or a small change a second after I posted it originally. I don't see what I changed in the meaning of anything.

So to repeat. Devaluing the Chinese currency risks exporting more deflation around the world which is quite risky.

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