Can't stand Prayut? Swallow the charter draft

[webfact]

STOPPAGE TIME
Can't stand Prayut? Swallow the charter draft
Tulsathit Taptim

BANGKOK: -- After the solace offered to us by religious holidays and Mother's Day this month, thrills will come thick and fast in September. Thai politics has been hibernating long enough, and, if analysts are correct, it will wake up a few days from now with a vengeance.

We will all sit in the front row and see why August's preaching of Buddhist "detachment" and "family values" is little more than wishful thinking for 2015.

The charter draft's fate is about to be revealed.

Rejection or approval will bring different sets of serious problems.

If the draft is approved then it will move onto a path strewn with landmines heading towards a public referendum. If it's rejected, the already-shaken credibility of the coup will be further undermined. People will ask Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha where the "reform" that he promised is. Worse, many will see the draft's abortion as part of a well-crafted plan to extend his stay in power, because the "reform road map" would require a new draft to be written.

One might be tempted to think that "approval" would lead to less serious problems. A public referendum on the Thai charter, however, won't be as simple as when the Scots had to decide whether to wave goodbye to the United Kingdom or when the Greeks had to vote on whether to say "Screw you" to their country's creditors. Compared to the Thai vote, these national referendums seem like classrooms selecting student heads.

Thailand's charter referendum contains complications wherever you stand. While it won't be easy for our military rulers, it will be just as tough for the anti-coup people. If the anti-military camp campaigns against the draft and wins, chances are that the general election they crave will be further delayed. If they support the draft, they will in effect offer legitimacy to a coup they abhor.

However, if you support Pheu Thai and are confident of an election victory, why not let the charter draft survive and deal with it later? You think you can always amend the "military-installed Constitution" some other time, right? Well, isn't that what the Yingluck government had in mind when it came to power on the back of a landslide election triumph?

Yet saying "Yes" or "No" to the draft charter may pale in significance next to the question that many expect will come up in the referendum: How much longer should Prayut stay in power? When the reform council votes on the charter draft early next month, this question will hang over the heads of all its members. If they approve the draft, they will effectively kick-start the referendum process. In fact, they will need to consider right away whether the referendum should include the Prayut question.

I call it the "Prayut question" just to make it easily understandable. The referendum ballot won't be so obvious, of course. It is more likely to ask voters two questions: A) Do you approve this charter draft? Do you want reform before election, or not?

Faced with this format, if you hate Prayut and the charter draft, you have two options. You say "No" to both and (if you win) grit your teeth when the reform process starts all over again with Prayut likely still at the helm. Or you say "Yes" to A and "No" to B and hope for the best.

The reform council will cease to exist soon and be replaced by another council whose name means it's supposed to "drive" reform forward. The writing of a new draft, if needed, will take place under this second council. More complications will ensue, but for the time being let's focus on the current charter draft.

Simply put, if the existing draft is rejected, an election will be delayed by several months. If it's approved, the election timeframe will depend on how Thais vote on the Prayut question.

Will there actually be a vote on Prayut? A decision on that will be made early next month. If the Prayut vote is called, the best-case scenario for the anti-military camp will be for the existing draft to sail through and for Thais to overwhelmingly demand an immediate election. But things could be beyond that camp's control if the reform council kills the existing draft on the spot.

Complex, isn't it? Now it's clearer why Suthep Thaugsuban had to leave the monastery and re-enter politics. Prayut wouldn't have been able to handle it on his own. Actually, Thailand's situation has reached a point where nobody could handle it alone. Well, that's understating it. The Thai situation has reached a point where the smallest development can have huge implications.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Cant-stand-Prayut-Swallow-the-charter-draft-30266386.html


-- The Nation 2015-08-12

[TheAppletons]

"Complex, isn't it? Now it's clearer why Suthep Thaugsuban had to leave the monastery and re-enter politics. Prayut wouldn't have been able to handle it on his own."

Oops. The Nation lets the cat out of the bag.

[tbthailand]

Will there actually be a vote on Prayut? A decision on that will be made early next month.

it is an interesting insight into the thought process of the current crowd of yellow-tigned elites running the show that they can possibly believe that having a vote on "Prayuth" makes sense...

Only one kind of system of government designs it's votes around an uncontested "candidate"...

[Sarathi]

I really think that Gen. Prayuth feels he's doing such a good job, that everyone will support him (except for a few pesky journalists who ask the wrong questions).

Just like the Democrats thought that their 40 Billion rice scheme, and coalition partners would win over the North East.

[oneday]

This might all be so much simpler if they were not voting on the DRAFT as one complete unalterable document. They should put each controversial section of the DRAFT up for vote so they can refine and rewrite just those parts people disagree with the most. By doing it as a "take-it-or-leave-it" proposition they are guaranteeing failure all across the board.

[bangsaenguy]

What election? The self appointed does PM not want an election. Ever

[Colabamumbai]

An excellent well written description of the future history of Thailand.

[canuckamuck]

Since whatever decisions are made will be made for self serving reasons. The best you can hope for is for is a strategy that accidentally works out for the nation.

[DrTuner]

Interesting title. Perhaps Prayuts plan is indeed being an obnoxious old <deleted> and the only way he's going to agree to go out is with a golden handshake, in this case a charter. Cunning. All the sin bans lately would seem to indicate he's doing all he can to piss off the general populace.

[chainarong]

It could be construed all along that there was no intention of letting the people say yes , a cunning way to stay in power longer having a constitution re- write , how can you say yes to something you haven't read is another problem, has anybody got their copy in the mail , Prayut - O I am afraid will end up being there longer than quite a few would like, this in turn will have its pluses and minuses , as Administration Managers they are not any better than the PTP .the plus is we have lots of topic's to sling S!!t at them. On a serious note if the Junta are there for longer than necessary, this could lead to big time trouble down the track and lets remember the Thai military have been defeated before at home by their own people.

[LannaGuy]

it will be Hobson's Choice

"if you don't support X we will stay until you do so to get rid of us you have to support X"

and, of course, no Y opposition or alternative will be offered and no Y campaign or debate

it's X or military stays

[MZurf]

Wonder where the cheerleaders are today to explain to us simpletons why it's all good??

[gamini]

I can't understand why a group of farangs on this forum go on about the coup and the military government as if it has some dreadful effect on their lives. Anything good the government does is greeted by sarcastic remarks and some plain stupid ones too. For us who live here we are not allowed to vote or demonstrate so what is the problem?. At least it's peaceful and we do not have to fear violent demonstrations, getting shot at and airport closings. Those of us in the tourist business should be happy for the increasing number of tourists who obviously prefer a military government because they know they are safe.
These same posters never take into consideration all the positive steps that the military have taken. They don't seem to realise the extent of corruption in this country that the army is trying to deal with. Our beaches are being cleaned up, the taxi mafia in Phuiket has been neutralised. Steps are being taken against the jetskis scammers, the slavery fishing industry, encroachment on national parks. The transfer and investigation of hundreds of dishonest cops and civil servants. I could go on and on. The government will ease visa's for us and was responsible for the online reporting.
I do not support coups and military governments in general but as far as I'm concerned and many Thais , they are preferable to the so-called elected last government with all its rampant corruption and controlled by a criminal fugitive from abroad.

[rubl]

I really think that Gen. Prayuth feels he's doing such a good job, that everyone will support him (except for a few pesky journalists who ask the wrong questions).

Just like the Democrats thought that their 40 Billion rice scheme, and coalition partners would win over the North East.

Absolutely. Pheu Thai and Thaksin knew it would cost much more, but who cares about losing 600 or 700 billion Baht if it delivers the votes to get a mandate to do what one wants ?

Elections anyone? WE respect your vote till it's counted and then you're supposed to go home and be quiet and let us do what we want: getting rich democratically.

[jerome2]

I think he did a lot of cleaning and Many Thai apreciate... he would need a few dozen years to finish the job... i think the one who criticise are thai who want to fill their pockets again... but thats just a guess

[MaiChai]

Prayut is misunderstood. I think he is doing a good job, despite the difficulties. I think we have seen what the alternative is? Safety and security versus anarchy and emerging civil war? Democracy would be great but I think its impossible to implement in Thailand.

[bassman]

"A public referendum on the Thai charter, however, won't be as simple as when the Scots had to decide whether to wave goodbye to the United Kingdom or when the Greeks had to vote on whether to say "Screw you" to their country's creditors. Compared to the Thai vote, these national referendums seem like classrooms selecting student heads.

"Complex, isn't it? Now it's clearer why Suthep Thaugsuban had to leave the monastery and re-enter politics. Prayut wouldn't have been able to handle it on his own. Actually, Thailand's situation has reached a point where nobody could handle it alone. Well, that's understating it. The Thai situation has reached a point where the smallest development can have huge implications."

What a rambling article, from the Greeks to the Scots to the savior of Thailand's reemergence to politics. A long painful, boring read just to get to the point being...thank god for Suthep!

[tbthailand]

Wonder where the cheerleaders are today to explain to us simpletons why it's all good??

it took em a few hours but then a whole string of them lined up behind you...

[MZurf]

Wonder where the cheerleaders are today to explain to us simpletons why it's all good??

it took em a few hours but then a whole string of them lined up behind you...

Yes, enjoyed reading those together with my morning coffee. Nothing like a bit of fresh drivel to start off the day. I particularly like the post by gamini (# 13). If I was that far removed from reality I'm thinking I would probably be a more content and happy person.

[chickenrunCM]

At least it's peaceful and we do not have to fear violent demonstrations, getting shot at and airport closings. Those of us in the tourist business should be happy for the increasing number of tourists who obviously prefer a military government because they know they are safe.

These same posters never take into consideration all the positive steps that the military have taken. They don't seem to realise the extent of corruption in this country that the army is trying to deal with. Our beaches are being cleaned up, the taxi mafia in Phuket has been neutralised. Steps are being taken against the jetskis scammers, the slavery fishing industry, encroachment on national parks. The transfer and investigation of hundreds of dishonest cops and civil servants. I could go on and on. The government will ease visa's for us and was responsible for the online reporting.

I do not support coups and military governments in general but as far as I'm concerned and many Thais , they are preferable to the so-called elected last government with all its rampant corruption and controlled by a criminal fugitive from abroad.

What tourist prefer a military goverment? may be the Chinese and you! in which world you are living? Taxis in Phuket is the same problem, jetskis are the same problem, nothing better, what visa will be eased?online reporting was a project 3 years ago, economic down, no plan about the future, no respect for people who have another opinion, bring students to a military court, because 5 or 10 meet together, send people to prison for 30 years because of lese majestic, this is a better Thailand?

In Chiang Mai they close down everything after midnight, so this will be a big help for tourism, realy! I caan see now a lot of western young people coming, because they can now go sleep at midnight, instead of hanging out and have party

[mikemac]

Wonder where the cheerleaders are today to explain to us simpletons why it's all good??

................."to us simpletons"......................(you didn't hear it from me)

Admitting you have a problem is the first step in fixing the problem !

[MZurf]

Wonder where the cheerleaders are today to explain to us simpletons why it's all good??

................."to us simpletons"......................(you didn't hear it from me)

Admitting you have a problem is the first step in fixing the problem !

I really have no comeback for you - you are a comic genius!

[LannaGuy]

Wonder where the cheerleaders are today to explain to us simpletons why it's all good??

................."to us simpletons"......................(you didn't hear it from me)

Admitting you have a problem is the first step in fixing the problem !

I really have no comeback for you - you are a comic genius!

he must be wearing a big red nose, a funny hat with big shoes still the kids will love him

[rubl]

Wonder where the cheerleaders are today to explain to us simpletons why it's all good??

it took em a few hours but then a whole string of them lined up behind you...

Yes, enjoyed reading those together with my morning coffee. Nothing like a bit of fresh drivel to start off the day. I particularly like the post by gamini (# 13). If I was that far removed from reality I'm thinking I would probably be a more content and happy person.

May it be that the anti Prayut camp got in first? Maybe some of us have regular jobs and lack the time at times. Must be related to being yellow-tinted.