Thailand must face transition to the 'new normal'

[webfact]

THAI TALK
Thailand must face transition to the 'new normal'
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Prediction, goes the old joke, is dangerous, especially if it's about the future. In Thailand, talking about tomorrow is an especially risky business as nobody is quite sure about today, since lessons from yesterday are still unclear and undefined.

Jack Ma of Alibaba said recently: "As I was told in the past 20 years doing Internet business in China: Today is difficult and tomorrow is much more difficult. But the day after tomorrow is beautiful. However, most die tomorrow evening, if you don't work hard."

For Thailand, predicting tomorrow's events is difficult enough. Forecasting the day after tomorrow is unimaginable, at least for issues of a political nature.

Making economic predictions also remains a dangerous game, especially when it comes to the immediate future. Most forecasts about the second half of 2015 made in the first quarter have proved to be inaccurate, if not downright wrong.

Cabinet members understandably painted a hopeful picture of the third and fourth quarters. Even business leaders and technocrats were trying to offer a bright scenario. The latest statistics, however, have confirmed that things will get worse before they get better - at least for the next couple of years.

Hence it was especially comforting when the head of the Thailand Future Foundation came up with a prediction that focused on the day after tomorrow, leaving the immediate future in the hands of ministers, academics and technocrats who have to respond to the ups and downs of the daily news cycle.

But things remain "difficult" even when talking about longer-term scenarios. Sethaputi Suthiwartnaruput warned that all Thais must face the fact that the annual economic growth rate of around 5 per cent in the past decade will drop to 3 per cent. This is the "new normal" that everyone concerned must learn to live with - and even achieving this modest growth will require hard and conscientious work. Nothing can be taken for granted anymore.

The Future Foundation's forecast says populist policies will have to be a thing of the past. National savings will become a must. Slower economic growth will be accompanied by rising pollution and a more vulnerable energy supply position.

Major changes are in the works. Thailand's demographic trend is towards a rapidly ageing society, which brings challenges that cannot be handled without some real planning and effective enforcement.

With a shrinking workforce, the issue of immigrant labour becomes a serious test. Thailand's competitiveness has eroded significantly. Neighbouring countries are attracting foreign investments that would have come here in past years. With household debts rising to nearly 80 per cent of GDP, the hope of boosting domestic consumption as a substitute for export revenue appears to be wishful thinking unless real alternatives are found to lay the foundation for a brighter future.

Industrialists have reasons to be concerned when they witness electronic component factories relocating their production facilities from Thailand to Vietnam, while export of petrochemicals is slowing down after China recently switched from an importer to a net exporter of these products.

The forecast challenges a general assumption that the slowdown in exports is simply a temporary phenomenon amid a downturn in the world economy. "That may not necessarily be the case. We can't blame the world market for all our problems. In fact, the world economy this year isn't all that bleak," Sethaputi said.

He argues that the country's planners must accept the fact that they are dealing with a structural problem, made worse by changing patterns of world trade. Even if the world economy returns to its previous rate of growth, the volume and value of international trade may not return to the same level.

The new normal means that Thailand's exports, which enjoyed an average 12 per cent annual growth in the past decade, will fall to an average 4 per cent at most, according to the forecast.

It also offers three policy recommendations that should help guide the mapping of the country's future economic direction:

1. Beware of excessively stimulating domestic consumption in the hope of jacking up GDP growth back to 5 per cent-plus. The country's potentials are undergoing major changes and an average of 3 per cent growth can be maintained only with a clear focus on boosting productivity in all fields.

2. Create an effective and comprehensive social security network so as to avoid a system that becomes financially unsustainable because of populist policy exploited by politicians for electoral purposes.

3. Place greater emphasis on integration with CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) and Southern China - and not only on the AEC (Asean Economic Community). Thailand's exports to CLMV stood at $21 billion last year, more or less the same level as our exports to Japan.

For many in a country that has always been complacent about its own natural resources ("There are fish in the water and rice in the fields"), the major adjustments required to survive the next decade represent a very difficult transition.

But if we are to make it to "the day after tomorrow", then there is no escaping the need to face the "new normal" with a renewed sense of national mission.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Thailand-must-face-transition-to-the-new-normal-30268975.html


-- The Nation 2015-09-17

[Reigntax]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

[DuaneEddy]

Have you heard the song by the Who? "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss". History, and politics, repeats itself. The pendulum swings both ways

[TheKnave]

Have you heard the song by the Who? "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss". History, and politics, repeats itself. The pendulum swings both ways

" Forty Miles of Bad Road"...

[TheKnave]

Well-written article...

[pauleddy]

Sensible and level-headed article which discusses the broad-brush need to face enforced transition.

Thailand will never be the same as 20-30 years ago when, despite internal politics, it was a great place to visit/move to. It is now much more dog-eat-dog and the future is quite scary.

I believe that the current regime "believes" that what it is doing is for the good, and that it is having success in dealing with minor corruption/beach-bars/jetskis and 1 or 2 obvious individuals. Far greater challenges lie ahead in terms of meeting/managing major national and economic events.

The track record to date is not great. If I want somebody to manage my army, I will need experienced generals because I know nothing about military affairs. If I want to improve my finances, I will hire economists and financiers and etc. If I want a house built, I will get a builder. Who should I get these days?

Eddy

[Srikcir]

The "new normal" will be that the other ASEAN nations will surpass Thailand in economic and population growth for the next 10 years unless Thailand can stabilize its political environment. Thailand will only be the hub of wishful hopes.

Thailand's next constitution and authority of the Thai military will decide if Thailand remains a developing country or becomes a developed industrial nation. And while the military holds power now, it will be the Thai people themselves who will make the decision for their future.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Srikcir

[ginjag]

The "new normal" will be that the other ASEAN nations will surpass Thailand in economic and population growth for the next 10 years unless Thailand can stabilize its political environment. Thailand will only be the hub of wishful hopes.

Thailand's next constitution and authority of the Thai military will decide if Thailand remains a developing country or becomes a developed industrial nation. And while the military holds power now, it will be the Thai people themselves who will make the decision for their future.

With a bit of time and thought, about what really went on over the 2011-2014 year of non governing, the 50% + of the population could well do to gen up about voting for the non corrupt candidates.

Get their minds off the rice field---drought---floods--- many to work harder instead of relying on monthly money from offspring who have to sell their bodies for the family.

With a bit of guidance and stability, a good result can be had at the time of election-------if they are not channeled into voting locally for unsuitable persons.

Thailand people put your country first, not get 1,000 baht from villains.

[JAG]

"Guidance as to who to vote for" - would that be a euphemism like " attitude adjustment"?

[h90]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

Election, corruption, coup, new constitution, election, corruption, coup, new constitution

[ddavidovsky]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

Election, corruption, coup, new constitution, election, corruption, coup, new constitution

Election, corruption, election, less corruption, election, even less corruption...

This is the only way to strengthen democractic institutions and develop the economy. Takes time. Let it run.

[h90]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

Election, corruption, coup, new constitution, election, corruption, coup, new constitution

Election, corruption, election, less corruption, election, even less corruption...

This is the only way to strengthen democractic institutions and develop the economy. Takes time. Let it run.

That would only work with an independent police, independent mass media and clean elections without vote buying as minimum. Strong constitution and checks and balances need to be well established. Elections alone don't help, as you can see in North Korea or why didn't the vote the Communists away in East Germany or Poland. You need a complete package of things, else it won't work. Having a coup every few years, than a half backed new constitution and no attention to all other problems isn't helpful as. What they do now is the guarantee that nothing will change.

If the military would only put very strong laws against corruption and vote buying in place and protect these laws in the constitution it might be enough that your "Election, corruption, election, less corruption, election, even less corruption..." might work....but they don't do it..... No one rich and influential ever goes into jail in Thailand....

[Prbkk]

Japan, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Australia; UK, among others in the G20, are all looking for the "new normal". It's painful and solutions elusive.

[ddavidovsky]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

Election, corruption, coup, new constitution, election, corruption, coup, new constitution

Election, corruption, election, less corruption, election, even less corruption...

This is the only way to strengthen democractic institutions and develop the economy. Takes time. Let it run.

That would only work with an independent police, independent mass media and clean elections without vote buying as minimum. Strong constitution and checks and balances need to be well established. Elections alone don't help, as you can see in North Korea or why didn't the vote the Communists away in East Germany or Poland. You need a complete package of things, else it won't work. Having a coup every few years, than a half backed new constitution and no attention to all other problems isn't helpful as. What they do now is the guarantee that nothing will change.

If the military would only put very strong laws against corruption and vote buying in place and protect these laws in the constitution it might be enough that your "Election, corruption, election, less corruption, election, even less corruption..." might work....but they don't do it..... No one rich and influential ever goes into jail in Thailand....

Elections alone do help. They promote accountability, though it takes decades and a number of successive governments, all of which will be inept and corrupt to a degree - that goes without saying. It's the gradual development that is important. You don't need a 'complete package of things' all at once. Get real. It's a process.

The comparison of past elections with North Korea's is silly. Their elections are pure theatre. Thailand's past elections have been monitored and validated.

Vote buying? You mean offering bribes door to door? Are you still flogging that one? Let's kill that argument once and for all:

i) if it happens, all sides will do it.

ii) the side with a clear majority has less need to do it - that's not the way a majority is gained.

iii) it's a secret ballot so there's no way it can even work.

iv) there's little solid proof of it actually happening on the scale claimed - show us the videos.

v) for obvious reasons we can expect this claim to be exaggerated by the side that lost - ie. yours.

You aren't patient enough. If you think all Thailand's political problems can be solved at a sweep by authoritarianism, you have been misinformed.

Edited September 17, 2015 by ddavidovsky

[ginjag]

"Guidance as to who to vote for" - would that be a euphemism like " attitude adjustment"?

Only your gang of anti PM agenda guys would answer this way. Guidance from all sectors, newer cleaner local government----business-------learning from the media.

But you few and far between guys are never ever happy as things are going against your wishes (and that's not just elections) Do you really understand it is persons like yourselves with your daily attitude (negative) that need attitude adjustment for Slagging off the persons in office. Give it a break---boring from you 12 or so. Yes count you hard liners up. give us a total of you anti PM.....and then give us a total of vast majority who are going along with things for the time being,

[ginjag]

Japan, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Australia; UK, among others in the G20, are all looking for the "new normal". It's painful and solutions elusive.

Oh from one of the main anti PM guys--------have you had consultations with these said countries leaders ???

[LannaGuy]

The "new normal" will be that the other ASEAN nations will surpass Thailand in economic and population growth for the next 10 years unless Thailand can stabilize its political environment. Thailand will only be the hub of wishful hopes.

Thailand's next constitution and authority of the Thai military will decide if Thailand remains a developing country or becomes a developed industrial nation. And while the military holds power now, it will be the Thai people themselves who will make the decision for their future.

With a bit of time and thought, about what really went on over the 2011-2014 year of non governing, the 50% + of the population could well do to gen up about voting for the non corrupt candidates.

Get their minds off the rice field---drought---floods--- many to work harder instead of relying on monthly money from offspring who have to sell their bodies for the family.

With a bit of guidance and stability, a good result can be had at the time of election-------if they are not channeled into voting locally for unsuitable persons.

Thailand people put your country first, not get 1,000 baht from villains.

1,000 baht form villains??? plz, plz go educate yourself... I mean REALLY

[AnnieT]

The "new normal" will be that the other ASEAN nations will surpass Thailand in economic and population growth for the next 10 years unless Thailand can stabilize its political environment. Thailand will only be the hub of wishful hopes.

Thailand's next constitution and authority of the Thai military will decide if Thailand remains a developing country or becomes a developed industrial nation. And while the military holds power now, it will be the Thai people themselves who will make the decision for their future.

Agreed. I think Thailand is in decline. And there is no shortage of SEA nations very willing (if not gleeful) to put the boot in.

Thailand doesn't have any friends. It did that to itself. and it's doing it's decline to itself. It might well turn out that the stupid foreigners who 'don't understand the incredibly smart and ineffably subtle Thainess' actually understood Thais better than they understood themselves.

I expect all will become clear in time.

[MaxLee]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

[EnglishJohn]

The "new normal" will be that the other ASEAN nations will surpass Thailand in economic and population growth for the next 10 years unless Thailand can stabilize its political environment. Thailand will only be the hub of wishful hopes.

Thailand's next constitution and authority of the Thai military will decide if Thailand remains a developing country or becomes a developed industrial nation. And while the military holds power now, it will be the Thai people themselves who will make the decision for their future.

With a bit of time and thought, about what really went on over the 2011-2014 year of non governing, the 50% + of the population could well do to gen up about voting for the non corrupt candidates.

Get their minds off the rice field---drought---floods--- many to work harder instead of relying on monthly money from offspring who have to sell their bodies for the family.

With a bit of guidance and stability, a good result can be had at the time of election-------if they are not channeled into voting locally for unsuitable persons.

Thailand people put your country first, not get 1,000 baht from villains.

1,000 baht form villains??? plz, plz go educate yourself... I mean REALLY

He might be able to do that if you could manage to write a reply which made sense and had any kind of intelligible point to it.

[h90]

Election, corruption, coup, new constitution, election, corruption, coup, new constitution

Election, corruption, election, less corruption, election, even less corruption...

This is the only way to strengthen democractic institutions and develop the economy. Takes time. Let it run.

That would only work with an independent police, independent mass media and clean elections without vote buying as minimum. Strong constitution and checks and balances need to be well established. Elections alone don't help, as you can see in North Korea or why didn't the vote the Communists away in East Germany or Poland. You need a complete package of things, else it won't work. Having a coup every few years, than a half backed new constitution and no attention to all other problems isn't helpful as. What they do now is the guarantee that nothing will change.

If the military would only put very strong laws against corruption and vote buying in place and protect these laws in the constitution it might be enough that your "Election, corruption, election, less corruption, election, even less corruption..." might work....but they don't do it..... No one rich and influential ever goes into jail in Thailand....

Elections alone do help. They promote accountability, though it takes decades and a number of successive governments, all of which will be inept and corrupt to a degree - that goes without saying. It's the gradual development that is important. You don't need a 'complete package of things' all at once. Get real. It's a process.

The comparison of past elections with North Korea's is silly. Their elections are pure theatre. Thailand's past elections have been monitored and validated.

Vote buying? You mean offering bribes door to door? Are you still flogging that one? Let's kill that argument once and for all:

i) if it happens, all sides will do it.

ii) the side with a clear majority has less need to do it - that's not the way a majority is gained.

iii) it's a secret ballot so there's no way it can even work.

iv) there's little solid proof of it actually happening on the scale claimed - show us the videos.

v) for obvious reasons we can expect this claim to be exaggerated by the side that lost - ie. yours.

You aren't patient enough. If you think all Thailand's political problems can be solved at a sweep by authoritarianism, you have been misinformed.

You bring arguments that would be good in a perfect world....in the perfect world also communism would work.

But this is not a perfect world.

Yes NK elections are pure theater. Thaksin said: "Democracy is not my goal" and he told that he is in favor of a 1 party system...how could you be sure that Thailands elections won't be a pure theater after a few years.

Vote buying

i) yes all sides do it, but not all sides have the funds to do it everywhere. Having only party list MPs would help, reduce vote buying as neither the people which have a safe position nor these with a hopeless position would spend money. That would make it extreme expensive for the few interested people.

ii) yes that can be well seen in the South where Democrats only pay in areas where they don't feel safe or only pay people who were paid by PTP. So they try to target their funds there were they are most effective. As well PTP pays just 300 (or less) Baht in safe areas, but a lot more in critical areas. They are corrupt but not stupid.

iii) recall when Thaksin made these voting boots very small so his wife got filmed voting for PPP (or TRT, can't recall). As well photos from the mobile phones were asked for. And there complicate constructions where you only get the money when there is a majority in the complete village.

iv) I have seen it with my own eyes...in Samut Prakarn the speaker truck even shouted it in the small sois openly (but they told 200 Baht which seems a bit cheap)....Ask around, everyone knows it. It is a bit less in Bangkok and a bit less in the South. North, North East and Deep South it is full scale. Also in the industrial estates where the labor get picked up by truck for the advance voting, vote and get direct the 200 (or more) Baht in their hands.

v) As all parties do it, it must be efficient....

Patience: hard to tell, if there wouldn't be any coups (or just a few), would Thailand be better off and a stable democracy, or would it be like Indonesia/Philippines/Cambodia?

I don't see an example of a good functional democracy here in this area.

Obviously coups and new constitutions don't fix the problems as well......But looking at Thaksin, Samak, Somchai, Abhisit, Yingluck I don't see Prayuth or Surayud any worse. In fact they are better, elected or not.

[phoenixdoglover]

Japan, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Australia; UK, among others in the G20, are all looking for the "new normal". It's painful and solutions elusive.

Oh from one of the main anti PM guys--------have you had consultations with these said countries leaders ???

Prbkk is correct. The global landscape has changed. Countries that relied on population growth to sustain economic growth are now stalling as the population ages. Countries are burdened by the costs of supporting an older population. Industries have relocated to countries with lower business costs, and they're not coming back. These are common themes in Europe and North America.

[MaxLee]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

Election, corruption, coup, new constitution, election, corruption, coup, new constitution

Let's fine tune this a little

Election-Collection, vote buying, corruption, nasty nasty protests, bombing, coup, attitude adjustments -IN BETWEEN RICH AND INFLUENTIAL ARE UNTOUCHABLE AND GET AWAY WITH MURDER- never-ever ending cycle of rejecting charter - going over dead bodies to save face...... and start again......

[h90]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

Election, corruption, coup, new constitution, election, corruption, coup, new constitution

Let's fine tune this a little

Election-Collection, vote buying, corruption, nasty nasty protests, bombing, coup, attitude adjustments -IN BETWEEN RICH AND INFLUENTIAL ARE UNTOUCHABLE AND GET AWAY WITH MURDER- never-ever ending cycle of rejecting charter - going over dead bodies to save face...... and start again......

But on one thing all are fair, no influential or rich ever goes into jail....even the worst enemy and murder is untouchable....jails are only for the primitivlings of the lower classes.......So fighting for the power, sueing and couping, but really harm the other hi-so

I don't know a single one who really went into jail.

[MaxLee]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

Election, corruption, coup, new constitution, election, corruption, coup, new constitution

Let's fine tune this a little

Election-Collection, vote buying, corruption, nasty nasty protests, bombing, coup, attitude adjustments -IN BETWEEN RICH AND INFLUENTIAL ARE UNTOUCHABLE AND GET AWAY WITH MURDER- never-ever ending cycle of rejecting charter - going over dead bodies to save face...... and start again......

But on one thing all are fair, no influential or rich ever goes into jail....even the worst enemy and murder is untouchable....jails are only for the primitivlings of the lower classes.......So fighting for the power, sueing and couping, but really harm the other hi-so

I don't know a single one who really went into jail.

Yep that's the pointed out in my post...... that's why they are UNTOUCHABLE.....

[JAG]

"Guidance as to who to vote for" - would that be a euphemism like " attitude adjustment"?

Only your gang of anti PM agenda guys would answer this way. Guidance from all sectors, newer cleaner local government----business-------learning from the media.

But you few and far between guys are never ever happy as things are going against your wishes (and that's not just elections) Do you really understand it is persons like yourselves with your daily attitude (negative) that need attitude adjustment for Slagging off the persons in office. Give it a break---boring from you 12 or so. Yes count you hard liners up. give us a total of you anti PM.....and then give us a total of vast majority who are going along with things for the time being,

Oh dear, I know I shouldn't have made a comment. As ever you have gone off like a badly made Bang Fei rocket, incoherently whizzing all over the place....

Obsessed by imagined agendas, and with a bizarre enthusiasm for counting and tracking the number of posters you regard as "your gang of anti PM agenda guys", you seem to regard the views of what you perceive as a majority of posters on this board as an accurate reflection of the Thai peoples opinion. Your apparent enthusiasm for attitude adjustment, and for expanding its use to cover people who don't agree with you speaks volumes. I've noticed before the relish with which you seem to regard the possibility of some of us being led into an "attitude adjustment camp". If that were ever to happen as I've said before, I would expect to see you grinning from the window of the Camp Commandants office!

​At least you are not boring (as you unfortunately find us). In a dark sort of way you are quite amusing, like watching a drunk trying to ice skate.

[jaywalker]

Predicting the future of Thailand is the easiest job in the world. Election, coup, new constitution, election, coup, new constitution....

Surely Thai Nostredamus or black magic could for tell this?

You could also add flood, drought, flood, drought....