What's the Gold Forecast?

[Asiantravel]

Gold bullion demand surges 27% in Q3- new Chinese buying spree

http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-demand-trends

that "buying spree" must be the reason why Gold is at a three months low

you are either a very slow learner or just being disingenuous

Chinese are buying spree of the real thing as opposed to pieces of paper in the paper gold market which is 100 times bigger.

[suzannegoh]

Gold bullion demand surges 27% in Q3- new Chinese buying spree

http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-demand-trends

that "buying spree" must be the reason why Gold is at a three months low

you are either a very slow learner or just being disingenuous

Chinese are buying spree of the real thing as opposed to pieces of paper in the paper gold market which is 100 times bigger.

Has the price of physical gold outperformed "paper gold" funds such as GLD since their inception? Why or why not?

[Naam]

Gold bullion demand surges 27% in Q3- new Chinese buying spree

http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-demand-trends

that "buying spree" must be the reason why Gold is at a three months low

you are either a very slow learner or just being disingenuous

Chinese are buying spree of the real thing as opposed to pieces of paper in the paper gold market which is 100 times bigger.

i was talking about the real thing which can be bought in shops and taken home. this real thing is at a three months low (losing 9.4% of its value within the last month) inspite of buying sprees and/or daydreamers liking it or not.

[Naam]

that "buying spree" must be the reason why Gold is at a three months low

Three months low? Try 5+ year low

i am a compassionate man and don't want to make goldbugs cry.

but those of us who know the facts have a duty to warn other investors who seek advice. yesterday evening i had a beer with "Fang37" who asked me whether it's now time to reduce some of his cash (he mentioned 10%) and buy 5-6,000 ounces of gold. my advice was "HOLD IT! start with a thousand ounces and buy small batches of 500 ounces on dips."

Fang agreed and paid for my beer

[Naam]

Gold bullion demand surges 27% in Q3- new Chinese buying spree

http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-demand-trends

that "buying spree" must be the reason why Gold is at a three months low

you are either a very slow learner or just being disingenuous

Chinese are buying spree of the real thing as opposed to pieces of paper in the paper gold market which is 100 times bigger.

Has the price of physical gold outperformed "paper gold" funds such as GLD since their inception? Why or why not?

here's a comparison chart "physical gold / GLD". it clearly shows that for ~6 years after inception the movement was more or less synchronous. in 2015 there was a clear decoupling and GLD beat physical hands down.

[fang37]

From the graphs, it seems that there is even more downside.

[Naam]

From the graphs, it seems that there is even more downside.

i don't use graphs/charts to make a forecast. and if you want my opinion you have to invite me for another beer.

[fang37]

From the graphs, it seems that there is even more downside.

i don't use graphs/charts to make a forecast. and if you want my opinion you have to invite me for another beer.

Naam

I used charts extensively for shares.

Useful?

No.

Your opinion - your price is not cheap.

Are you worth one beer or two?

[Naam]

From the graphs, it seems that there is even more downside.

i don't use graphs/charts to make a forecast. and if you want my opinion you have to invite me for another beer.

Naam

I used charts extensively for shares.

Useful?

No.

Your opinion - your price is not cheap.

Are you worth one beer or two?

whether i'm worth a beer or two seems to depend on specific months. i am handling four diversified portfolios (different target currencies, no shares only bonds) which all show that in 2015 the old wisdom applied "investors sell in may and go away!"

[Asiantravel]

Russia Sees Gold Reserves As “Additional Financial Cushion” In Face Of “External Uncertainties”

http://www.goldcore.com/uk/gold-blog/russia-sees-gold-reserves-as-additional-financial-cushion-in-face-of-external-uncertainties/

[fang37]

Bloody graphs!

[Naam]

Bloody graphs!

forget the graphs and stick to the percentages. but i agree that the first percentage is "bloody" too

[GOLDBUGGY]

As long as the price of real GOLD is set by fraudulent paper future contracts , the forecast is a high pressure on prices with a 100 % chance of manipulation.

Or when the west is completely out of Gold (and Silver) to sell to large buyers like India , China & Russia, prices will go up 'till some are willing to sell.

I'm not saying futures contracts don't have a bearing on the price of physical gold, they absolutely do. But did you ever think for a moment that that manipulation is how the price of physical gold has gotten so high, or are you only able to see how one side of that relationship exists?

Future Contracts have there place in the Open Market and can benefit many if it is done right. Several Commodities are sold on the Futures Markets and since many of us are not Gold Miners, lets use something else we can relate to like Wheat or in Thailand Rice.

Lets say you are a small rice farmer who hasn't planted this years rice crop yet as it is only February. You normally get about 12,000 kilograms of rice come harvest time. You calculate your costs for seedlings, fertilizer, fuel, and such, and your cost turns out to be 4,000 Baht per tonnes or 48,000 Baht. You check the Future Rice Contract for November (Harvest Time) and you see the buying price is 10,000 Baht per tonnes.

As a Rice Farmer, you can see that if you sold your rice ahead of time you can lock in a profit of 6,000 Baht per tonnes, or 72,000 Baht if you sold your expected Rice Crop now. Since you don't know what the price of rice will be come harvest time, you decide to sell now and set your future profit.

As a Rice Buyer, you may have a Futures Contract to sell China 100 tonnes of Rice at 12,000 Baht per tonnes in December. To insure you have enough rice to meet your contract obligation to China you start to buy rice now, on Future Contracts. You offer a price of 10,000 per tonnes which also locks in a profit for you now as well, of 2,000 Baht per tonnes.

So what a Futures Contract is supposed to do is eliminate some of the risk for both the seller and buyer, since neither one of them know what the price of rice will be come November, or how much will be for sale. But if they sell and buy now, it doesn't matter what the price will be come November as they already agreed upon that price now.

So a Futures Contract eliminates some risk but not all. What if, for example, the Rice Farmer has a bad year and rice crop and only produces 10 Tonnes of Rice when he promised 12 tonnes? Under normal circumstances this Rice Farmer would have to buy 2 tonnes of rice on the open market, perhaps paying more for it then what he got, to make up the short fall. But this farmers profit would have been less anyway, with a smaller crop, so all in all the market is still balanced.

But in comes the Commodity Trader. He neither grows rice or sells it. He buys and sells contracts. His goal being to buy low and sell high. He has the means to hold several tonnes of a commodity, thus causing a shortage and causing the price to go up, or dumping it, and causing the price to come down. He is fact can, and does, manipulate the markets.

A Rice Farmer selling his crop ahead of time, or a Gold Miner selling a years forecasted Gold Production is not the problem. It is when they sell more than they can produce several years down the road when it becomes a problem. They are not selling something physical. They are buying and selling a promise. This unbalances the Supply and Demand table as the supply is actually a lot smaller then it is shown to be. .

[GOLDBUGGY]

To some posters that no longer know some facts about gold and commodity trading. Firstly, banks are not required to hold gold as a security. Their security is in solid loans these days. Australia sold all of its federal gold holdings in the early 90's and has not stocked up on it since. Secondly, futures trading in any commodity does not require a physical transfer of the commodity. For instance if you future trade in beans, you are not required to truck tons of beans to your investment house if you lose your gamble. So all the talk of physical gold being moved around is just wrong. It is a myth and posts like Asiantravel have not grasped the basics of trading. If you lose your gamble in futures trading in any commodity, you pay in paper money, not physical commodities or you roll the whole futures deal to the next trading end date. QED

Who said anything about Australian Banks? Or what the Federal Reserve holds in Gold in relationship to what banks hold? Or even to have to physically own Gold in truck loads?

Maybe read up on Gold Leasing to get a clearer picture of what really goes on.

[lannarebirth]

As long as the price of real GOLD is set by fraudulent paper future contracts , the forecast is a high pressure on prices with a 100 % chance of manipulation.

Or when the west is completely out of Gold (and Silver) to sell to large buyers like India , China & Russia, prices will go up 'till some are willing to sell.

I'm not saying futures contracts don't have a bearing on the price of physical gold, they absolutely do. But did you ever think for a moment that that manipulation is how the price of physical gold has gotten so high, or are you only able to see how one side of that relationship exists?

Future Contracts have there place in the Open Market and can benefit many if it is done right. Several Commodities are sold on the Futures Markets and since many of us are not Gold Miners, lets use something else we can relate to like Wheat or in Thailand Rice.

Lets say you are a small rice farmer who hasn't planted this years rice crop yet as it is only February. You normally get about 12,000 kilograms of rice come harvest time. You calculate your costs for seedlings, fertilizer, fuel, and such, and your cost turns out to be 4,000 Baht per tonnes or 48,000 Baht. You check the Future Rice Contract for November (Harvest Time) and you see the buying price is 10,000 Baht per tonnes.

As a Rice Farmer, you can see that if you sold your rice ahead of time you can lock in a profit of 6,000 Baht per tonnes, or 72,000 Baht if you sold your expected Rice Crop now. Since you don't know what the price of rice will be come harvest time, you decide to sell now and set your future profit.

As a Rice Buyer, you may have a Futures Contract to sell China 100 tonnes of Rice at 12,000 Baht per tonnes in December. To insure you have enough rice to meet your contract obligation to China you start to buy rice now, on Future Contracts. You offer a price of 10,000 per tonnes which also locks in a profit for you now as well, of 2,000 Baht per tonnes.

So what a Futures Contract is supposed to do is eliminate some of the risk for both the seller and buyer, since neither one of them know what the price of rice will be come November, or how much will be for sale. But if they sell and buy now, it doesn't matter what the price will be come November as they already agreed upon that price now.

So a Futures Contract eliminates some risk but not all. What if, for example, the Rice Farmer has a bad year and rice crop and only produces 10 Tonnes of Rice when he promised 12 tonnes? Under normal circumstances this Rice Farmer would have to buy 2 tonnes of rice on the open market, perhaps paying more for it then what he got, to make up the short fall. But this farmers profit would have been less anyway, with a smaller crop, so all in all the market is still balanced.

But in comes the Commodity Trader. He neither grows rice or sells it. He buys and sells contracts. His goal being to buy low and sell high. He has the means to hold several tonnes of a commodity, thus causing a shortage and causing the price to go up, or dumping it, and causing the price to come down. He is fact can, and does, manipulate the markets.

A Rice Farmer selling his crop ahead of time, or a Gold Miner selling a years forecasted Gold Production is not the problem. It is when they sell more than they can produce several years down the road when it becomes a problem. They are not selling something physical. They are buying and selling a promise. This unbalances the Supply and Demand table as the supply is actually a lot smaller then it is shown to be. .

Right, I know all that, I'm a futures trader. My only point was that the manipulation created by speculative futures trading works both ways. It can drive prices up, which bleeds into the physical market, just as much as it can drive prices down. Sanguine Gold hoarders should be aware of that and the fact that no true price discovery is taking place. Rational physical Gold buyers will already know this.

While I only rarely trade Gold futures I also agree that it is speculators like myself that distort the market, and other than providing a measure of liquidity serve no useful purpose. It wouldn't bother me in the least if speculators were banned from commodity futures markets, but I don't forsee that happening as it is a huge Wall Street money maker.

[anon4546543]

There is a law which defines the price of any commodity. The law of supply and demand. In agriculture, some traders bet on good weather and conditions to supply a good crop. A good crop worldwide means prices will drop. This and this alone will define the price of an agricultural commodity. As everyone needs to eat food, agricultural futures betting is fairly stable depending on worldwide production. Mineral production is constrained by the overall state of economic development. If many countries are building, the price of copper, iron and so on will rise until production reaches glut level. If overall building slows, the price will go down. In gold production, the price is even more problematic. Gold is used in the IT, dental and fashion industry. Low production levels will cause the price to rise.

But there are huge supplies of gold in the community, just visit any gold suk or market to see tons of the stuff lying around. All futures trading is paid or lost in paper money, not in physical commodities. So don't bet on the price of gold rising, world wide economies are struggling, gold is no longer a hedge and the market place is chock a block with many people selling.

[lannarebirth]

There is a law which defines the price of any commodity. The law of supply and demand. In agriculture, some traders bet on good weather and conditions to supply a good crop. A good crop worldwide means prices will drop. This and this alone will define the price of an agricultural commodity. As everyone needs to eat food, agricultural futures betting is fairly stable depending on worldwide production. Mineral production is constrained by the overall state of economic development. If many countries are building, the price of copper, iron and so on will rise until production reaches glut level. If overall building slows, the price will go down. In gold production, the price is even more problematic. Gold is used in the IT, dental and fashion industry. Low production levels will cause the price to rise.

But there are huge supplies of gold in the community, just visit any gold suk or market to see tons of the stuff lying around. All futures trading is paid or lost in paper money, not in physical commodities. So don't bet on the price of gold rising, world wide economies are struggling, gold is no longer a hedge and the market place is chock a block with many people selling.

I agree with everything you've said, but I'd only add this. Major Gold producers aren't exhibiting much hedging activity presently. This is either a major miscalculation or industry insiders are expecting another bull run. I'll not be betting either way unless/until Gold tests its 900ish breakout level. IMO, even that level is too high to own Gold, but is not too high to speculate with Gold.

[Asiantravel]

Grandmaster Putin’s Trap – 2

" By systematically increasing their gold reserves, Russia and China are relentlessly moving forward to strip the US dollar of its status as a global reserve currency "

http://orientalreview.org/2015/11/13/grandmaster-putins-trap-2/

Edited November 16, 2015 by Asiantravel

[Asiantravel]

Gold remains the best insurance for a crisis As central banks race to devalue currency private individuals are hoarding record amounts of gold

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/11992563/Gold-remains-the-best-insurance-for-a-crisis.html

[Naam]

[fang37]

How low will it go?

[Naam]

How low will it go?

no beer = no answer!

[fang37]

How low will it go?

no beer = no answer!

Don't be cruel, Naam.

OK, a small shandy.

[Naam]

How low will it go?

no beer = no answer!

Don't be cruel, Naam.

OK, a small shandy.

you got me. i love Shandy but haven't had a decent one since i left Nigeria 30 years ago. don't tell me that wonderful drink is available in Thailand!

[fang37]

Only for aged pensioners & those who cannot hold their drink.

[alocacoc]

Right now, Gold -1.74% @1064.7. Lost important support. Low of 2015.

Edited November 17, 2015 by alocacoc

[Asiantravel]

Indians Refuse To Give Their Gold To The Government: Only 30 Kilograms Take Part In "Gold Monetization Scheme"

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Governments-gold-bond-scheme-gets-only-8-crore-in-first-week/articleshow/49809904.cms

Edited November 19, 2015 by Asiantravel

[suzannegoh]

Indians Refuse To Give Their Gold To The Government: Only 30 Kilograms Take Part In "Gold Monetization Scheme"

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Governments-gold-bond-scheme-gets-only-8-crore-in-first-week/articleshow/49809904.cms

Russians buying, gold Chinese buying gold, Ted Cruz wanting a gold standard, Allan Greenspan admitting that he is descended from Ickes lizards, the world going to hell in a handbasket. By now gold ought to be at $5000/oz. And yet gold prices steadily creep downward. What, in you estimation, will reverse that trend?

[Naam]

Russians buying, gold Chinese buying gold, Ted Cruz wanting a gold standard, Allan Greenspan admitting that he is descended from Ickes lizards, the world going to hell in a handbasket. By now gold ought to be at $5000/oz. And yet gold prices steadily creep downward. What, in you estimation, will reverse that trend?

gold is a commodity, i.e. demand higher than supply = gold goes up, demand lower than supply = gold goes down. as simple as that.

p.s.

-where i live the world is doing just fine. no sign of any hell.

-i ought to have a mia noi but my wife objects.

-i ought to own a Learjet but my financial means are not sufficient.