European shares tumble as worries over China intensify

[tonbridgebrit]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-bets-americans-buy-cars-052858963.html

"General Motors will be placing a big bet the American public is willing to drive a car built in China when it unveils the Buick Envision on Sunday night

The largest US automaker is certainly not trying to bring it to market quietly: Buick's latest sport utility vehicle will be introduced at a lavish party on the eve of the Detroit auto show in the hopes of maximizing media coverage."


Let's face it, CAPITALISM, we will look for where is the more competitively priced labour (cheaper labour) and put our factory there. Is China really collapsing ?

[Usernames]

What ??? Japan ???

Look, Japan has been in RECESSION for 25 years (that's a quarter of a century) and I predict another 25 years of recession. Yes, Japan's been in recession since 1990.

Japan's export of high technology goods to America and the EU has not replaced the mountain of goods (cars, motorbikes, videos, televisions, other electricals, etc) it exported back in the 1980s and prior to that. Also, Japan has one of the lowest birth-rates in the world, it's going through negative population growth, this is when the population actually shrinks on an annual basis. This doesn't do the economy any good, Japan's population will be a fair bit smaller in twenty years from now compared to today. And loads of them will be retired and collecting a pension.

As for China, the US and EU are importing a mountain of Chinese manufactured goods, how much is Wal Mart's monthly import bill from China ? We all know that there's no point in re-building those factories in America and Europe, it makes more sense to import from China. It's cheaper that way. And China still has a vast pool of cheap labour, China will simply carry on exporting, which is what's causing the economic growth and financing their giant infra-structure projects.

And no, I don't think countries like Thailand and Vietnam will replace China when exporting to the EU and US. Their populations are not actually big enough to provide the vast pool of factory workers needed. Remember, usually only a small percentage of the population wants to work in a facory, that's why Thailand and Vietnam will not be able to produce a massive mountain of goods for export.

Thx for every occasion of your posts to present instead the accurate and real situation.

An economically zero-growth Japan is fixed at a GDP (by PPP) per capita as the second wealthiest country of the world. The fact hasn't changed for a long long time nor will it change for a long long time, if ever.

The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Japan was last recorded at $37,595.18 US dollars in 2014. The GDP per Capita in Japan is equivalent to 298 percent of the world's average. GDP per capita in Japan averaged $25,357.33 USD from 1960 until 2014, reaching an all time high of $37,595.18 USD in 2014 and a record low of $7,079.43 USD in 1960. GDP per capita in Japan is reported by the World Bank.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita

A zero-growth very wealthy Japan has been and will continue to be better off than a CCP China growing 14% annually forever. If CCP grew at 14% annually for 40 years it still would not catch up to the present Japan, or the Japan going forward. Don't worry yourself to death about Japan. S Korea is rich with 48 million people, Taiwan is rich with 23 million Tiawanese, and Singapore is rich with 4 million mostly people of Chinese ancestry.

As a maturing China moves beyond the low-end manufacturing and export-led model that defined its dramatic three-decade rise, a new group of countries is emerging to assume that role in the global economy. The outlines of this group, what we call the Post-China 16, or "PC16," are only now coming into focus. Indeed, the specific countries may change and the precise roles they play in this transition — their success in following the path China has trod — remain to be fully seen.

https://www.stratfor.com/image/post-china-16-ascendant-manufacturing-countries

The CCP manufacturing replacement or successor countries are already identified and getting the new business leaving the CCP China the past several years. Note that among Asean countries Thailand is out in the cold...again, and will continue to be left out as long as present (and past) trends dominate.

Thailand is standing still indefinitely in its present state of development and at its present level of GDP and GDP per capita. That is not a good place to be in. (I don't post to Thailand News Forum any more because of my views, which are that it is tragic the country is reverting to a pre-Industrial Revolution feudalism by means of a 20th century pre-WW2 fascism.)

The fanboyz of the CCP China, Russia and all the Bricks etc etc are tough and persistent cases but the casual reader is more balanced and open. I respond to the tough case posters but it is always the casual reader I address thx.

Talk about Japan. Yes, Japan's GDP per person has not shrunk since 1990, but everybody in economics knows that Japan has practically been in recession since 1990. The Nikkei Dow Jones Index is still far lower today than what it was at it's peak in the late 1980s !

And from wikipedia, "The Japanese population is rapidly aging as a result of a post–World War II baby boom followed by a decrease in birth rates. In 2012, about 24.1 percent of the population was over 65, and the proportion is projected to rise to almost 40 percent by 2050". And also "Japan's population is expected to drop to 95 million by 2050;^[166][171] demographers and government planners are currently in a heated debate over how to cope with this problem".

Basically, Japan has got problems, and no, there will not be an increase in the number of Japanese tourists in London and Paris (and indeed, in Thailand too). That's because there's less and less Japanese as time goes by.

That map that has been put up. Who are "Stratfor Global Inteeligence" ??

Some of the views, regarding the 16 nations who are going to replace China, are absurd ! Yes, Mexico, does have a bright future. They might as well scrap the Mexico-USA border because it's becoming irrelevant. America needs new and 'competitively priced' labour, yes, it makes sense to draft in the Mexicans. The other nations in the Americas on that map, there populations are far too small to have an impact on world trade (America and the EU's imports).

Africa ? They didn't mention South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest economies in Africa. And those two countries are unfortunately still massively reliant on their exports of natural resources to generate very mdest economic growth. Nobody reckons that Ethiopia and Tanzania will be exporting flat-screen televisions to the EU and America in the future !

The Asian nations ? Cambodia and Laos have insignicant population sizes, and are Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods growing faster than China's growth ?? Burma is a closed nation, the junta there is not actually interested in opening up Burma to trade and tourism, they've been in charge for decades.

Indonesa and the Phillippines lack the infra-strucure needed. They've simply not expanded their manufacturing bases for decades, why have belief that they will replace China when it comes to exporting a mountain of cheap goods to China ? What's going to happen in the next two decades that will be going to expand their manufacturing bases, bearing in mind that it hasn't happened so far ?

It would be easier to consider that the EU will be re-building it's factories in Poland and Romania (and Bulgaria) and trying to make it's own goods rather than import from China. But this scenario does look pretty unlikely !!

Why is a declining Japanese population a problem? They've invested heavily into robots. Automation will take care of much of the worker demand. All across the world, automation is going to leave legions of people unemployed and unemployable. And there will be less stress on the environment (unlike polluted, dangerous, filthy China) with fewer people. Japan looks like the future to me. Population ponzi schemes are a road to disaster.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Scott

[Publicus]

Well, I must admit to being one of those know-nothings, but I find it hard to see a country of 1400 million people going broke.

Roughly 700 million people in China are smokers and if we presume that the government make 5 RMB per packet in taxes and we assume that each smoker smokes one packet per day that would be 3,500.000.000 RMB per day going into the governments coffers or roughly USD 530,000,000 per day. That is USD 193,450,000,000 per annum. To be fair and to avoid exaggeration, let's half that and say 100,000 million USD just from smokers, before we even consider anything else.

Most countries have scaled down their manufacturing base to an almost zero state.

As I see it you can always be the boss but if the employees don't come to work then you have got nothing.

Please forgive my ignorant comments.

It could be helpful to research some actual data rather than to dream up stuff.

Average price of a pack of cigs in CCP China is between 5 yuan to 10 yuan. The government does not get 5 yuan from each pack sold.

CCP tobacco monopoly already provides 7% of the national government's revenue. CCP however still needs more money so its working on the children in their primary schools....

“The subsidiaries of the national tobacco company sponsor elementary schools,” Martin says. “They give them money, and some of them are named after local tobacco companies. ... They’re very much ingrained in the local culture.”

Slogans at the entryways of sponsored elementary schools read: “Genius comes from hard work. Tobacco helps you become talented.”

http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-12-12/chinas-national-tobacco-company-has-staggering-market-and-they-start-young

Kids getting out of primary school at 5 pm with some of them bending over to pick up a cigarette butt to put in their lips. Obscene.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Why is a declining Japanese population a problem? They've invested heavily into robots. Automation will take care of much of the worker demand. All across the world, automation is going to leave legions of people unemployed and unemployable. And there will be less stress on the environment (unlike polluted, dangerous, filthy China) with fewer people. Japan looks like the future to me. Population ponzi schemes are a road to disaster.

Robots sure have and still are being installed in ever greater numbers, also in China where they could create unemployment.

http://www.ifr.org/industrial-robots/statistics

2014: By far the highest volume ever recorded

In 2014, robot sales increased by 29% to 229,261 units, by far the highest level ever recorded for one year. Sales of industrial robots to all industries increased compared to 2013. The automotive parts suppliers and the electrical/electronics industry were the main drivers of the growth. China has considerably expanded its leading position as the biggest market with a share of 25% of the total supply in 2014.

57,096 industrial robots were sold in 2014 in China, 56% more than in 2013. Thereof, Chinese robot suppliers installed about 16,000 units according to the information from the China Robot Industry Alliance (CRIA). Their sales volume was about 78% higher than in 2013. This was partly due to an increasing number of companies that reported their sales data for the first time in 2014. Foreign robot suppliers increased their sales by 49% to 41,100 units, including robots produced by international robot suppliers in China. China, by far the biggest market for industrial robots, is also the fastest growing market worldwide. This rapid development is unique in the history of robotics. There has never been such dynamic rise in such a short period of time in any other market. A wide range of industries have been increasingly investing in automation. Between 2010 and 2014, total supply of industrial robots increased by about 40% per year on average.

Thailand is also a growing robot market in Asia. Its annual supply ranked number 8 in the world in 2014. However, the total supply of about 3,700 robots represents only less than 2% of the global installations in 2014. Robot sales to India reached a new peak of about 2,100 units.

Edited January 10, 2016 by ExpatOilWorker

[Publicus]

Why is a declining Japanese population a problem? They've invested heavily into robots. Automation will take care of much of the worker demand. All across the world, automation is going to leave legions of people unemployed and unemployable. And there will be less stress on the environment (unlike polluted, dangerous, filthy China) with fewer people. Japan looks like the future to me. Population ponzi schemes are a road to disaster.

Robots sure have and still are being installed in ever greater numbers, also in China where they could create unemployment.

http://www.ifr.org/industrial-robots/statistics

2014: By far the highest volume ever recorded

In 2014, robot sales increased by 29% to 229,261 units, by far the highest level ever recorded for one year. Sales of industrial robots to all industries increased compared to 2013. The automotive parts suppliers and the electrical/electronics industry were the main drivers of the growth. China has considerably expanded its leading position as the biggest market with a share of 25% of the total supply in 2014.

57,096 industrial robots were sold in 2014 in China, 56% more than in 2013. Thereof, Chinese robot suppliers installed about 16,000 units according to the information from the China Robot Industry Alliance (CRIA). Their sales volume was about 78% higher than in 2013. This was partly due to an increasing number of companies that reported their sales data for the first time in 2014. Foreign robot suppliers increased their sales by 49% to 41,100 units, including robots produced by international robot suppliers in China. China, by far the biggest market for industrial robots, is also the fastest growing market worldwide. This rapid development is unique in the history of robotics. There has never been such dynamic rise in such a short period of time in any other market. A wide range of industries have been increasingly investing in automation. Between 2010 and 2014, total supply of industrial robots increased by about 40% per year on average.

Thailand is also a growing robot market in Asia. Its annual supply ranked number 8 in the world in 2014. However, the total supply of about 3,700 robots represents only less than 2% of the global installations in 2014. Robot sales to India reached a new peak of about 2,100 units.

All well and good but I did not write the post attributed to me in the quote box. The poster username wrote the quoted post. My name erroneously got attached to it.

I am in agreement with the quoted post, it's just that I did not write it.

For the record.

[Publicus]

What ??? Japan ???

Look, Japan has been in RECESSION for 25 years (that's a quarter of a century) and I predict another 25 years of recession. Yes, Japan's been in recession since 1990.

Japan's export of high technology goods to America and the EU has not replaced the mountain of goods (cars, motorbikes, videos, televisions, other electricals, etc) it exported back in the 1980s and prior to that. Also, Japan has one of the lowest birth-rates in the world, it's going through negative population growth, this is when the population actually shrinks on an annual basis. This doesn't do the economy any good, Japan's population will be a fair bit smaller in twenty years from now compared to today. And loads of them will be retired and collecting a pension.

As for China, the US and EU are importing a mountain of Chinese manufactured goods, how much is Wal Mart's monthly import bill from China ? We all know that there's no point in re-building those factories in America and Europe, it makes more sense to import from China. It's cheaper that way. And China still has a vast pool of cheap labour, China will simply carry on exporting, which is what's causing the economic growth and financing their giant infra-structure projects.

And no, I don't think countries like Thailand and Vietnam will replace China when exporting to the EU and US. Their populations are not actually big enough to provide the vast pool of factory workers needed. Remember, usually only a small percentage of the population wants to work in a facory, that's why Thailand and Vietnam will not be able to produce a massive mountain of goods for export.

Thx for every occasion of your posts to present instead the accurate and real situation.

An economically zero-growth Japan is fixed at a GDP (by PPP) per capita as the second wealthiest country of the world. The fact hasn't changed for a long long time nor will it change for a long long time, if ever.

The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Japan was last recorded at $37,595.18 US dollars in 2014. The GDP per Capita in Japan is equivalent to 298 percent of the world's average. GDP per capita in Japan averaged $25,357.33 USD from 1960 until 2014, reaching an all time high of $37,595.18 USD in 2014 and a record low of $7,079.43 USD in 1960. GDP per capita in Japan is reported by the World Bank.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita

A zero-growth very wealthy Japan has been and will continue to be better off than a CCP China growing 14% annually forever. If CCP grew at 14% annually for 40 years it still would not catch up to the present Japan, or the Japan going forward. Don't worry yourself to death about Japan. S Korea is rich with 48 million people, Taiwan is rich with 23 million Tiawanese, and Singapore is rich with 4 million mostly people of Chinese ancestry.

As a maturing China moves beyond the low-end manufacturing and export-led model that defined its dramatic three-decade rise, a new group of countries is emerging to assume that role in the global economy. The outlines of this group, what we call the Post-China 16, or "PC16," are only now coming into focus. Indeed, the specific countries may change and the precise roles they play in this transition — their success in following the path China has trod — remain to be fully seen.

https://www.stratfor.com/image/post-china-16-ascendant-manufacturing-countries

The CCP manufacturing replacement or successor countries are already identified and getting the new business leaving the CCP China the past several years. Note that among Asean countries Thailand is out in the cold...again, and will continue to be left out as long as present (and past) trends dominate.

Thailand is standing still indefinitely in its present state of development and at its present level of GDP and GDP per capita. That is not a good place to be in. (I don't post to Thailand News Forum any more because of my views, which are that it is tragic the country is reverting to a pre-Industrial Revolution feudalism by means of a 20th century pre-WW2 fascism.)

The fanboyz of the CCP China, Russia and all the Bricks etc etc are tough and persistent cases but the casual reader is more balanced and open. I respond to the tough case posters but it is always the casual reader I address thx.

Talk about Japan. Yes, Japan's GDP per person has not shrunk since 1990, but everybody in economics knows that Japan has practically been in recession since 1990. The Nikkei Dow Jones Index is still far lower today than what it was at it's peak in the late 1980s !

And from wikipedia, "The Japanese population is rapidly aging as a result of a post–World War II baby boom followed by a decrease in birth rates. In 2012, about 24.1 percent of the population was over 65, and the proportion is projected to rise to almost 40 percent by 2050". And also "Japan's population is expected to drop to 95 million by 2050;^[166][171] demographers and government planners are currently in a heated debate over how to cope with this problem".

Basically, Japan has got problems, and no, there will not be an increase in the number of Japanese tourists in London and Paris (and indeed, in Thailand too). That's because there's less and less Japanese as time goes by.

That map that has been put up. Who are "Stratfor Global Inteeligence" ??

Some of the views, regarding the 16 nations who are going to replace China, are absurd ! Yes, Mexico, does have a bright future. They might as well scrap the Mexico-USA border because it's becoming irrelevant. America needs new and 'competitively priced' labour, yes, it makes sense to draft in the Mexicans. The other nations in the Americas on that map, there populations are far too small to have an impact on world trade (America and the EU's imports).

Africa ? They didn't mention South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest economies in Africa. And those two countries are unfortunately still massively reliant on their exports of natural resources to generate very mdest economic growth. Nobody reckons that Ethiopia and Tanzania will be exporting flat-screen televisions to the EU and America in the future !

The Asian nations ? Cambodia and Laos have insignicant population sizes, and are Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods growing faster than China's growth ?? Burma is a closed nation, the junta there is not actually interested in opening up Burma to trade and tourism, they've been in charge for decades.

Indonesa and the Phillippines lack the infra-strucure needed. They've simply not expanded their manufacturing bases for decades, why have belief that they will replace China when it comes to exporting a mountain of cheap goods to China ? What's going to happen in the next two decades that will be going to expand their manufacturing bases, bearing in mind that it hasn't happened so far ?

It would be easier to consider that the EU will be re-building it's factories in Poland and Romania (and Bulgaria) and trying to make it's own goods rather than import from China. But this scenario does look pretty unlikely !!

The post says what is happening in the global economy is not happening.

Instead, the opposite that is happening in the mind of the poster is supposed to be the global reality.

He also has his own reasons to explain why the countries that are already doing what they're doing can't do what they're doing. Not presently and not foreseeably either.

Doesn't like maps either.

[tonbridgebrit]

Talk about Japan. Yes, Japan's GDP per person has not shrunk since 1990, but everybody in economics knows that Japan has practically been in recession since 1990. The Nikkei Dow Jones Index is still far lower today than what it was at it's peak in the late 1980s !

And from wikipedia, "The Japanese population is rapidly aging as a result of a post–World War II baby boom followed by a decrease in birth rates. In 2012, about 24.1 percent of the population was over 65, and the proportion is projected to rise to almost 40 percent by 2050". And also "Japan's population is expected to drop to 95 million by 2050;^[166][171] demographers and government planners are currently in a heated debate over how to cope with this problem".

Basically, Japan has got problems, and no, there will not be an increase in the number of Japanese tourists in London and Paris (and indeed, in Thailand too). That's because there's less and less Japanese as time goes by.

That map that has been put up. Who are "Stratfor Global Inteeligence" ??

Some of the views, regarding the 16 nations who are going to replace China, are absurd ! Yes, Mexico, does have a bright future. They might as well scrap the Mexico-USA border because it's becoming irrelevant. America needs new and 'competitively priced' labour, yes, it makes sense to draft in the Mexicans. The other nations in the Americas on that map, there populations are far too small to have an impact on world trade (America and the EU's imports).

Africa ? They didn't mention South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest economies in Africa. And those two countries are unfortunately still massively reliant on their exports of natural resources to generate very mdest economic growth. Nobody reckons that Ethiopia and Tanzania will be exporting flat-screen televisions to the EU and America in the future !

The Asian nations ? Cambodia and Laos have insignicant population sizes, and are Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods growing faster than China's growth ?? Burma is a closed nation, the junta there is not actually interested in opening up Burma to trade and tourism, they've been in charge for decades.

Indonesa and the Phillippines lack the infra-strucure needed. They've simply not expanded their manufacturing bases for decades, why have belief that they will replace China when it comes to exporting a mountain of cheap goods to China ? What's going to happen in the next two decades that will be going to expand their manufacturing bases, bearing in mind that it hasn't happened so far ?

It would be easier to consider that the EU will be re-building it's factories in Poland and Romania (and Bulgaria) and trying to make it's own goods rather than import from China. But this scenario does look pretty unlikely !!

The post says what is happening in the global economy is not happening.

Instead, the opposite that is happening in the mind of the poster is supposed to be the global reality.

He also has his own reasons to explain why the countries that are already doing what they're doing can't do what they're doing. Not presently and not foreseeably either.

Doesn't like maps either.

Publicus, Publicus, can you please confirm the following.

Those countries who are suppose to be replacing China , okay, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Peru, Uganda, Sri Lanka, Cambodia and Laos, these countries have populations that are too small to rpoduce a mountain of cheap goods for export to the EU and USA ? Is the Dominican Republic going to make flat screen ttelevisions, and will it make any difference to the vast market of the EU ansd USA ??

Also, that post I put up about GM putting a car plant in China. I didn't make it up, it really is happening !!

[Publicus]

Talk about Japan. Yes, Japan's GDP per person has not shrunk since 1990, but everybody in economics knows that Japan has practically been in recession since 1990. The Nikkei Dow Jones Index is still far lower today than what it was at it's peak in the late 1980s !

And from wikipedia, "The Japanese population is rapidly aging as a result of a post–World War II baby boom followed by a decrease in birth rates. In 2012, about 24.1 percent of the population was over 65, and the proportion is projected to rise to almost 40 percent by 2050". And also "Japan's population is expected to drop to 95 million by 2050;^[166][171] demographers and government planners are currently in a heated debate over how to cope with this problem".

Basically, Japan has got problems, and no, there will not be an increase in the number of Japanese tourists in London and Paris (and indeed, in Thailand too). That's because there's less and less Japanese as time goes by.

That map that has been put up. Who are "Stratfor Global Inteeligence" ??

Some of the views, regarding the 16 nations who are going to replace China, are absurd ! Yes, Mexico, does have a bright future. They might as well scrap the Mexico-USA border because it's becoming irrelevant. America needs new and 'competitively priced' labour, yes, it makes sense to draft in the Mexicans. The other nations in the Americas on that map, there populations are far too small to have an impact on world trade (America and the EU's imports).

Africa ? They didn't mention South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest economies in Africa. And those two countries are unfortunately still massively reliant on their exports of natural resources to generate very mdest economic growth. Nobody reckons that Ethiopia and Tanzania will be exporting flat-screen televisions to the EU and America in the future !

The Asian nations ? Cambodia and Laos have insignicant population sizes, and are Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods growing faster than China's growth ?? Burma is a closed nation, the junta there is not actually interested in opening up Burma to trade and tourism, they've been in charge for decades.

Indonesa and the Phillippines lack the infra-strucure needed. They've simply not expanded their manufacturing bases for decades, why have belief that they will replace China when it comes to exporting a mountain of cheap goods to China ? What's going to happen in the next two decades that will be going to expand their manufacturing bases, bearing in mind that it hasn't happened so far ?

It would be easier to consider that the EU will be re-building it's factories in Poland and Romania (and Bulgaria) and trying to make it's own goods rather than import from China. But this scenario does look pretty unlikely !!

The post says what is happening in the global economy is not happening.

Instead, the opposite that is happening in the mind of the poster is supposed to be the global reality.

He also has his own reasons to explain why the countries that are already doing what they're doing can't do what they're doing. Not presently and not foreseeably either.

Doesn't like maps either.

Publicus, Publicus, can you please confirm the following.

Those countries who are suppose to be replacing China , okay, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Peru, Uganda, Sri Lanka, Cambodia and Laos, these countries have populations that are too small to rpoduce a mountain of cheap goods for export to the EU and USA ? Is the Dominican Republic going to make flat screen ttelevisions, and will it make any difference to the vast market of the EU ansd USA ??

Also, that post I put up about GM putting a car plant in China. I didn't make it up, it really is happening !!

Great for GM and for the Chinese going forward. And good for you cause you finally found something real and actual.

Being a professional worrier must keep you pretty busy a lot of the time. Especially when the matters you continually fret over are already settled and a given.

As with this for instance, going beyond the post-China 16 or so low wage manufacturing countries identified on the map, the USA has re-entered the picture on the high end.....

If 10 CEOs had been asked a decade ago — even five years ago — where they were going to build their next plant, at least nine would have answered China. Today, no more than two or three would give that answer, and as many as five would say the United States. After a serious slump, U.S. manufacturing is once again the fastest-growing part of the U.S. economy. But perhaps more importantly, the United States is regaining an unexpected edge in the global race for competitiveness after losing ground to low-cost manufacturers in China and other emerging economies over the past decade.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/28/made-in-the-u-s-a-again/

Denying what is actually occurring is absurd. Creating problems that don't exist is silly or just mischevious. A waste of time.

[tonbridgebrit]

Talk about Japan. Yes, Japan's GDP per person has not shrunk since 1990, but everybody in economics knows that Japan has practically been in recession since 1990. The Nikkei Dow Jones Index is still far lower today than what it was at it's peak in the late 1980s !

And from wikipedia, "The Japanese population is rapidly aging as a result of a post–World War II baby boom followed by a decrease in birth rates. In 2012, about 24.1 percent of the population was over 65, and the proportion is projected to rise to almost 40 percent by 2050". And also "Japan's population is expected to drop to 95 million by 2050;^[166][171] demographers and government planners are currently in a heated debate over how to cope with this problem".

Basically, Japan has got problems, and no, there will not be an increase in the number of Japanese tourists in London and Paris (and indeed, in Thailand too). That's because there's less and less Japanese as time goes by.

That map that has been put up. Who are "Stratfor Global Inteeligence" ??

Some of the views, regarding the 16 nations who are going to replace China, are absurd ! Yes, Mexico, does have a bright future. They might as well scrap the Mexico-USA border because it's becoming irrelevant. America needs new and 'competitively priced' labour, yes, it makes sense to draft in the Mexicans. The other nations in the Americas on that map, there populations are far too small to have an impact on world trade (America and the EU's imports).

Africa ? They didn't mention South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest economies in Africa. And those two countries are unfortunately still massively reliant on their exports of natural resources to generate very mdest economic growth. Nobody reckons that Ethiopia and Tanzania will be exporting flat-screen televisions to the EU and America in the future !

The Asian nations ? Cambodia and Laos have insignicant population sizes, and are Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods growing faster than China's growth ?? Burma is a closed nation, the junta there is not actually interested in opening up Burma to trade and tourism, they've been in charge for decades.

Indonesa and the Phillippines lack the infra-strucure needed. They've simply not expanded their manufacturing bases for decades, why have belief that they will replace China when it comes to exporting a mountain of cheap goods to China ? What's going to happen in the next two decades that will be going to expand their manufacturing bases, bearing in mind that it hasn't happened so far ?

It would be easier to consider that the EU will be re-building it's factories in Poland and Romania (and Bulgaria) and trying to make it's own goods rather than import from China. But this scenario does look pretty unlikely !!

Why is a declining Japanese population a problem? They've invested heavily into robots. Automation will take care of much of the worker demand. All across the world, automation is going to leave legions of people unemployed and unemployable. And there will be less stress on the environment (unlike polluted, dangerous, filthy China) with fewer people. Japan looks like the future to me. Population ponzi schemes are a road to disaster.

Japan's population decline is a problem. In the future, maybe over half of all people in Japan will be over 65 and retired. Any society will have problems if this happens. Not enough young people working to pay for pensions (today's pensioners get their pensions from today's tax payers, future pensioners need future workers to pay tax for their pensions), and not enough young people to work in care homes and hospitals for old people.

Also, some Japanese are stressed about their population declining. It's not nice to know that your country's population is continiously falling. There's the mad theory that says, one day in the future, there won't be any Japanese left on planet earth. It's crazy, yes, but in theory, it might happen. You can have a big pile of cash, if a tiny bit goes everyday, yes, it will disappear to nothing.

Japan can import new foreign workers, but they won't. They're too racist to draft in foreigners. Note that America imports Mexicans, and the EU drafts in Africans and Asians. That thing about Muslims going to Germany, yes, Germany wants new workers.

Back to China. Yes, China is dirty and polluted, well yes, somebody on planet earth has to produce steel and other products. Manufactured goods need to be made somewhere. America and the EU don't actually want factories polluting America and the EU. I can't see new factories being built in Africa to replace the Chinese ones. Africa has always exported it's natural resources to make money. Nigeria and South Africa are the biggest African economies, they rely on exporting natural resources and not manufactured goods. The attempt to massively expand the manufacturing sector in Nigeria and South Africa has unfortunately not worked.

[ExpatOilWorker]

China just put 21 million new cars on the street in 2015 and China's auto sales rise 18.3 percent in December.

At the same time we are hearing that China's manufacturing has contracted ever single month for the past 12 months. Obviously the car industry must have expanded, so what industries have dragged the PMI index below 50?

[thaibeachlovers]

This is news? LOL.

The crash is no more unexpected than the tide coming in.

The 1% make the market go up, so the mugs rush in and buy, then they make it go down, so that they can clean up and get even richer.

Till the mugs wise up and stop playing the 1% 's game it will always be so.

To Publicus, Singapore was virtually a one party state, and it was brilliant in the 70s. Haven't lived there since then so can't comment on the present, but it seems to be doing OK. It's countries with too many parties that seem to be doing badly- can't get anything done.

[thaibeachlovers]

Talk about Japan. Yes, Japan's GDP per person has not shrunk since 1990, but everybody in economics knows that Japan has practically been in recession since 1990. The Nikkei Dow Jones Index is still far lower today than what it was at it's peak in the late 1980s !

And from wikipedia, "The Japanese population is rapidly aging as a result of a post–World War II baby boom followed by a decrease in birth rates. In 2012, about 24.1 percent of the population was over 65, and the proportion is projected to rise to almost 40 percent by 2050". And also "Japan's population is expected to drop to 95 million by 2050;^[166][171] demographers and government planners are currently in a heated debate over how to cope with this problem".

Basically, Japan has got problems, and no, there will not be an increase in the number of Japanese tourists in London and Paris (and indeed, in Thailand too). That's because there's less and less Japanese as time goes by.

That map that has been put up. Who are "Stratfor Global Inteeligence" ??

Some of the views, regarding the 16 nations who are going to replace China, are absurd ! Yes, Mexico, does have a bright future. They might as well scrap the Mexico-USA border because it's becoming irrelevant. America needs new and 'competitively priced' labour, yes, it makes sense to draft in the Mexicans. The other nations in the Americas on that map, there populations are far too small to have an impact on world trade (America and the EU's imports).

Africa ? They didn't mention South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest economies in Africa. And those two countries are unfortunately still massively reliant on their exports of natural resources to generate very mdest economic growth. Nobody reckons that Ethiopia and Tanzania will be exporting flat-screen televisions to the EU and America in the future !

The Asian nations ? Cambodia and Laos have insignicant population sizes, and are Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods growing faster than China's growth ?? Burma is a closed nation, the junta there is not actually interested in opening up Burma to trade and tourism, they've been in charge for decades.

Indonesa and the Phillippines lack the infra-strucure needed. They've simply not expanded their manufacturing bases for decades, why have belief that they will replace China when it comes to exporting a mountain of cheap goods to China ? What's going to happen in the next two decades that will be going to expand their manufacturing bases, bearing in mind that it hasn't happened so far ?

It would be easier to consider that the EU will be re-building it's factories in Poland and Romania (and Bulgaria) and trying to make it's own goods rather than import from China. But this scenario does look pretty unlikely !!

Why is a declining Japanese population a problem? They've invested heavily into robots. Automation will take care of much of the worker demand. All across the world, automation is going to leave legions of people unemployed and unemployable. And there will be less stress on the environment (unlike polluted, dangerous, filthy China) with fewer people. Japan looks like the future to me. Population ponzi schemes are a road to disaster.

Japan's population decline is a problem. In the future, maybe over half of all people in Japan will be over 65 and retired. Any society will have problems if this happens. Not enough young people working to pay for pensions (today's pensioners get their pensions from today's tax payers, future pensioners need future workers to pay tax for their pensions), and not enough young people to work in care homes and hospitals for old people.

Also, some Japanese are stressed about their population declining. It's not nice to know that your country's population is continiously falling. There's the mad theory that says, one day in the future, there won't be any Japanese left on planet earth. It's crazy, yes, but in theory, it might happen. You can have a big pile of cash, if a tiny bit goes everyday, yes, it will disappear to nothing.

Japan can import new foreign workers, but they won't. They're too racist to draft in foreigners. Note that America imports Mexicans, and the EU drafts in Africans and Asians. That thing about Muslims going to Germany, yes, Germany wants new workers.

Back to China. Yes, China is dirty and polluted, well yes, somebody on planet earth has to produce steel and other products. Manufactured goods need to be made somewhere. America and the EU don't actually want factories polluting America and the EU. I can't see new factories being built in Africa to replace the Chinese ones. Africa has always exported it's natural resources to make money. Nigeria and South Africa are the biggest African economies, they rely on exporting natural resources and not manufactured goods. The attempt to massively expand the manufacturing sector in Nigeria and South Africa has unfortunately not worked.

If Japan won't import workers to pay tax then they deserve everything they are going to get.

not enough young people to work in care homes and hospitals for old people.

If you'd ever had anything to do with looking after old people you'd know why young people won't do that. Underpaid and treated like rubbish- only the desperate will look after the aged.

Of course, once automation really kicks in, young people won't get any real work, so the aged care industry will get all the desperate workers they need.

Anyway, they will just build robots to do everything- that is the future.

Countries that won't make it attractive for post 65 years olds to work are stupid. 65 is only late middle age now, not on death's door like 100 years ago. I won't work in a paid job because they make no concessions for me to do so, and I'd rather be poor and happy than working for a bad boss ( most of my bosses, and I've had a lot, were rubbish ) and unhappy.

Edited January 12, 2016 by thaibeachlovers

[MaeJoMTB]

Countries that won't make it attractive for post 65 years olds to work are stupid. 65 is only late middle age now, not on death's door like 100 years ago.

I don't know any men over 65 worth employing.

And I'm 60 myself.

Most of the 70+ guys I know are already medically unfit for work, or on the slippery slope of dementia.

[Publicus]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-bets-americans-buy-cars-052858963.html

"General Motors will be placing a big bet the American public is willing to drive a car built in China when it unveils the Buick Envision on Sunday night

The largest US automaker is certainly not trying to bring it to market quietly: Buick's latest sport utility vehicle will be introduced at a lavish party on the eve of the Detroit auto show in the hopes of maximizing media coverage."

Let's face it, CAPITALISM, we will look for where is the more competitively priced labour (cheaper labour) and put our factory there. Is China really collapsing ?

8f10d987b51fd5cf709822ae3a2888776ecf5792_original.jpg

Buick is GM's best selling car in CCP due to its popularity among yuppies. It's a smart looking car that is comfortable and handles well.

You omitted that GM said if this car sells well in the USA GM will open plants there to construct it in the USA.

The election year of 2016 might be a tough year however to try to sell a US brand car made in China to the American consumer. I myself wish GM good fortune in this cause their Buick is a fine work of American design, precision, comfort. It's good to know what GM wants to do with this fine work of art and skill.

[tonbridgebrit]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-bets-americans-buy-cars-052858963.html

"General Motors will be placing a big bet the American public is willing to drive a car built in China when it unveils the Buick Envision on Sunday night

The largest US automaker is certainly not trying to bring it to market quietly: Buick's latest sport utility vehicle will be introduced at a lavish party on the eve of the Detroit auto show in the hopes of maximizing media coverage."

Let's face it, CAPITALISM, we will look for where is the more competitively priced labour (cheaper labour) and put our factory there. Is China really collapsing ?

8f10d987b51fd5cf709822ae3a2888776ecf5792_original.jpg

Buick is GM's best selling car in CCP due to its popularity among yuppies. It's a smart looking car that is comfortable and handles well.

You omitted that GM said if this car sells well in the USA GM will open plants there to construct it in the USA.

The election year of 2016 might be a tough year however to try to sell a US brand car made in China to the American consumer. I myself wish GM good fortune in this cause their Buick is a fine work of American design, precision, comfort. It's good to know what GM wants to do with this fine work of art and skill.

What about stuff written on the internet about how Beijing talks to manufacturers who export to China. Supposedly, Beijing exerts pressure on those manufacturers to re-locate their manufacturing plants to China, and if they don't, well, Beijing continues to put taxes on the product as it enters China.

In other words, Beijing targets manufacturers in America and the EU (the ones who actually export to China) and asks them to move their plant to China, that way, it creates jobs in China. And because the stuff is no longer being imported into China, well, it preserves China's trade surplus.

And the issue being, Beijing can do this, because American and EU companies want to sell their product to the vast market of China. Beijing knows this, it is able to harm big manufacturers (and indeed, any big company) by simply making it more difficult for them to sell their product in China.

Beijing taxes certain 'foreign' goods heavily, that's why certain goods are cheaper in Hong Kong than main-land China. And, oh look, a stack of mainland-Chinese go to Hong Kong for shopping trips.