CITS forecasts Thai wholesale and retail markets to grow by one percent

BANGKOK, 26 January 2016 (NNT) – The Center for International Trade Studies (CITS) has predicted that the wholesale and retail markets in Indonesia and the Philippines will score the highest growths among the ASEAN countries in 2020.

Indonesia and Vietnam will have higher growth rates than all other countries due to a relatively large number of foreign investments and an increased income per head, the center forecast.

Meanwhile, Thailand's wholesale and retail markets are expected to grow by just one percent this year and 10 percent in the next five years, according to CITS. However, that will largely depend on the people's incomes and domestic consumption. Thailand's modern-day trading is expected to grow while traditional retail trading will be gradually closed down like in other countries.


-- NNT 2016-01-26

Teflon Thailand, No longer!

Well that was a wishy washy report it will go up and close down. Confusing it seems. Might have been better to say we hope things improve in wholesale and retail sales in the coming year and beyond.

Are they next door to TAT

Oops - Thailand's wholesale and retail markets are expected to grow by just one percent this year !

DPM Somkid recently said that the "Thai economy has a solid foundation," but he still expects GDP will expand only 2.8-3% in 2016. The Bank of Thailand predicts flat export growth and agrees with Somkid's GDP prediction.

What all this means is that Thailand's GDP growth for 2016 is entirely dependent on tourism and government/private investment. I estimate tourism would have to triple for 2016 and continue to increase thereafter by 5% per annum. Foreign investment (down 78% with SET down 12% in 2015) is fleeing to the other Asian countries. But infrastructure investments take years for an economic payback. Private investment is being encouraged largely at the sacrifice of tax collections but the new active AEC may draw new businesses away from Thailand which will continue to be protectionist and uncompetitive.

A GDP growth greater than 2.8% for 2016 will be a stunning success. Thailand economic foundation is on solid rice paper and will continue to be the weakest economy in the AEC for 2016.