IMF warns the global economy is 'highly vulnerable'

[webfact]

IMF seeks contingency plans for vulnerable global economy
MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that the global economy is "highly vulnerable" to adverse shocks and urged the United States and other major governments to prepare contingency plans that could be rolled out quickly to boost growth.

The IMF report said a fragile global recovery has weakened further in the face of increasing financial market turbulence, falling oil prices and diminished growth prospects in China and other emerging market countries.

The lending agency said that the world's 20 largest economies should keep pursing growth strategies they have already unveiled. But it adds that G-20 nations should develop additional measures that could be implemented quickly if growth keeps wilting.

The IMF report will be delivered at a meeting Friday and Saturday of G-20 finance officials in Shanghai. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will represent the United States at the discussions.

Lew played down any expectations that the Shanghai meeting would produce specific growth plans similar to the ones rolled out in the spring of 2009 when policymakers were trying to restore confidence in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and a deep global recession.

"Don't expect a crisis response in a non-crisis environment," Lew said in an interview broadcast Wednesday by Bloomberg Television. "It's not the job of finance ministers and central bank governors to accelerate a crisis. It's our job to try and avoid a crisis."

Lew said that he did not expect the G-20 discussions to produce specific plans of "what each country is going to do and how."

Rather, he said the meeting would likely produce "a more stable understanding of what the future may look like" including greater clarity form the Chinese government about its plans to deal with a pronounced slowdown in that country. Worries about China's intentions have been blamed for increasing market volatility this year.

The IMF last month trimmed its economic forecast for global growth by 0.2 percentage point for both 2016 and 2017, reducing its projection to 3.4 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year. The new report said a further downgrade is "likely" in April when the IMF's next forecast is released.

All of the economic headwinds point "to higher risks of a derailed recovery, at a moment when the global economy is highly vulnerable to adverse shocks," the IMF cautioned.

The report said that policymakers should not rely too much on central banks keeping interest rates low to bolster growth. Where appropriate, tax cuts and government spending increases should be used to support economic growth, the IMF said.

In addition, the IMF said that countries at the center of the current Syrian refugee crisis and epidemics such as the Zika virus "are shouldering a burden for others and could be backed up by a coordinated global initiative."


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-02-25

[Gsxrnz]

I'd suggest the first step of any contingency plan announced by the IMF should be to bend over and kiss your arse goodbye.

I don't see anything from stopping what is now an inevitable crash. And I mean this is going to be a cliff face, not a slight dip in the charts.

[SgtRock]

IMF seeks contingency plans for vulnerable global economy

Getting rid of the IMF would be a first little small step to easing that vulnerability.

[terryp]

this is code talk for get ready for the G20 this weekend ...QE4 or many large Country de-valuations are on the agenda....next week will be very interesting and painful for many

[SgtRock]

terryp, on 25 Feb 2016 - 09:16, said:

this is code talk for get ready for the G20 this weekend ...QE4 or many large Country de-valuations are on the agenda....next week will be very interesting and painful for many

Indeed.

[Ace of Pop]

They should know ,they are part of the cause.

[petermik]

The Thai baht will remain unaffected

[trogers]

The Thai baht will remain unaffected

Should the water level falls, the floating Thai Baht will fall along. Just that others would be deeper in the murk...

[NCC1701A]

seriously, i wonder what life in Thailand will be like for expats from various different countries around the world?

i know as an American I have gold, silver, diamond jewelry, cash, real estate with no mortgage and could return (kicking and screaming) to the US if we had the long predicted global economic crash.

How do you see this affecting you in Thailand?

just more weakening of your currency? poor exchange rate? no pension? haircut on your savings? like 30% all at once to pay the bankers?

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times".

[brain150]

If the global crash comes, the US is probably one of the places NOT to be !!!

Thailand will be way better of than most western countries due to its still mainly rural structure.

It will come down hard on pretty much everybody.

The less dependend you are on the "global economy" the easier it will be to get throu this ... still, it WILL hurt !!!

[wonder6281]

The IMF should stop blaming China, Emerging markets and oil.

Emerging markets are struggling due the high overvalued USD. If the Fed were honest and declared they are looking to reduce rates and commence QE4 then the dollar would decline and Emerging markets would have a better chance of paying off debt which could slow down the global depression.

But while the petrodollar is under threat they need to keep the dollar inflated until war breaks out.

[midas]

seriously, i wonder what life in Thailand will be like for expats from various different countries around the world?

i know as an American I have gold, silver, diamond jewelry, cash, real estate with no mortgage and could return (kicking and screaming) to the US if we had the long predicted global economic crash.

How do you see this affecting you in Thailand?

just more weakening of your currency? poor exchange rate? no pension? haircut on your savings? like 30% all at once to pay the bankers?

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times".

" i know as an American I have gold, silver, diamond jewelry, cash, real estate with no mortgage and could return (kicking and screaming) to the US if we had the long predicted global economic crash. "

But what you don't have Is social cohesion and stability over there? If suddenly there is any interruption to food stamp program 4 million hungry (Some with guns ) people could go berserk. Look at the extent of the lawlessness that happened after hurricane Katrina and Sandy?

Edited February 25, 2016 by midas

[Caspersfriend]

seriously, i wonder what life in Thailand will be like for expats from various different countries around the world?

i know as an American I have gold, silver, diamond jewelry, cash, real estate with no mortgage and could return (kicking and screaming) to the US if we had the long predicted global economic crash.

How do you see this affecting you in Thailand?

just more weakening of your currency? poor exchange rate? no pension? haircut on your savings? like 30% all at once to pay the bankers?

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times".

May you also live in 'interesting' times -- and the "bird of paradise fly up your nose"

[i claudius]

She is just teed off that Britain wants to leave the EU,but then the French just see Britain as a cash cow for their lazy ways ,that is why Le Gard says Britain needs to stay in the E.U ,anyway who believe the IMF?

Edited February 25, 2016 by i claudius

[canuckamuck]

Just another excuse for more wealth transfer to the clubs that make all the crisis and the rules.

[Grouse]

Does nobody have anything positive or constructive to say about anything?

Pass the razor blades

[mesterm]

I'd suggest the first step of any contingency plan announced by the IMF should be to bend over and kiss your arse goodbye.

I don't see anything from stopping what is now an inevitable crash. And I mean this is going to be a cliff face, not a slight dip in the charts.

Why do you say this is an inevitable crash and off a cliff face? Asking cause it'd good to hear someone's opinion instead of reading the viewpoint of any particular media.

[elgordo38]

I'd suggest the first step of any contingency plan announced by the IMF should be to bend over and kiss your arse goodbye.

I don't see anything from stopping what is now an inevitable crash. And I mean this is going to be a cliff face, not a slight dip in the charts.

I think central bankers have shot their wad. I got no COLA this year very little interest on my savings although different versions tell me real inflation numbers are closer to 8-10%. I think we seniors have done our share. Yes we are going over a cliff.

[elgordo38]

The Thai baht will remain unaffected

Yes its truly a miracle. Today the news stated that exports here reached a 4 year low and the baht just chugs along and the same with the SET as Asian markets plunge. If the government is propping up the currency this will end badly.

[Whyamiandwhatamidoinghere]

I'd suggest the first step of any contingency plan announced by the IMF should be to bend over and kiss your arse goodbye.

I don't see anything from stopping what is now an inevitable crash. And I mean this is going to be a cliff face, not a slight dip in the charts.

I think central bankers have shot their wad. I got no COLA this year very little interest on my savings although different versions tell me real inflation numbers are closer to 8-10%. I think we seniors have done our share. Yes we are going over a cliff.

You will not have Cola for years to come so have a Pepsi...

[Chicog]

[umbanda]

I'd suggest the first step of any contingency plan announced by the IMF should be to bend over and kiss your arse goodbye.

I don't see anything from stopping what is now an inevitable crash. And I mean this is going to be a cliff face, not a slight dip in the charts.

I think central bankers have shot their wad. I got no COLA this year very little interest on my savings although different versions tell me real inflation numbers are closer to 8-10%. I think we seniors have done our share. Yes we are going over a cliff.

You will like to watch this new movie...http://123movies.to/film/the-big-short-7619/watching.html

[Rancid]

IMF, now there's another establishment front feigning independence.

Read Confessions of an Economic Hit man to put them into their proper place in how the world's economies are raped.

Interesting is how third world economies used to be pillaged, however the western economies are now getting the treatment of converting the assets of the majority into assets of the minority, and all without even having to actually pay.

[dayrest]

Really?

[NeverSure]

I get all of my financial advise and forecasts on TVF.