Beijing refuses to accept Hague ruling over South China Sea territorial claims

[Publicus]

The level of complexity in a communist party and its committee is not as easily described as above ; the interlinks between committees and the standing ability to make cohesive balanced decisions makes this harder as there are various levels of overriding powers held within the individual party secretaries.

Hence the commentary above does show there is a general lack of understanding and when one insist that their governance methods are perhaps the only way and the others are not as effective, this shows a general lack of conviction in reviewing the options available globally to people and also what impacts the people culturally, socially and from a political point.

I have made many points in the past that most Chinese population are in state of total disconnect with politics because they are really not interested in it unless it impacts them directly , then the conversations and discussion will start.

When one understand the complexity of the committee mix and the decision making process, some may understand better why Beijing is going against the face of things and refusing to accept this and plowing on.

The next few months will be interesting to say the least.

the commentary above does show there is a general lack of understanding and when one insist that their governance methods are perhaps the only way and the others are not as effective,

Dictatorship is wrong period. Further it runs against the trends of history, from the French Revolution and the American War of Independence forward. China missed the industrial revolution then China actively rejected it, so China under the CCP is continuing to suffer the consequences in the SCS and in other respects.

Revanchism and irredentism are relics of the first half of the 20th century rooted in the barbarism of the late 19th century. CCP are making the same errors and mistakes Europe made which means CCP are living in and as a part of history but have learned zero from it.

In the modern era, no single-party state has ever benefited the world, and none ever will either presently or going forward in time. This is the 21st century problem originating from a loud and bellicose China.

Edited July 28, 2016 by Publicus

[Publicus]

It will be very ironic that in the world of governance, people would believe there is a peaceful non conflict rising of a giant superpower. It shows again governance is not about unicorns and fairies and being practical. China is considered the least war prolific country compared to many of its more trigger happy G5 members...yes occasionally they say the wrong thing that gets everyone in a tiff....but they are also the slowest in any global conflict to say let's start bombing first to get the attention.

Everyone who reviewed how G5 / G20 nations do their negotiations and trade deals know it is always from a position of power and mostly smaller nations would feel aggrieved that they had no choice to but accept certain decisions. This is the reality of being small again.

Ask Greece / Italy / Bulgaria / Serbia why they are slowly pushing towards China instead or relying on their EU partners ? Perhaps Germany was considered too strong a bully and they don't relish another meeting with her again as they are reminded they are "naughty boys" and didn't spend within their means again.

Philippines as I mentioned in my earlier posts was a diplomacy error on the part of the Chinese to push them this hard, it's good however as within the committees it's clear what the boundaries on that and more back door channelling would have prevailed better than the media glare. They will recover from that mistake and hopefully be smarter in future negotiations.

The next flashpoint for China will not be the SCS...after a year the media glare dies down and if the Chinese makes the right move of allowing the fisherman in...I believe even the Filipinos would send the OFW to go there and dredge for the right wages...that was the most important point for the President first as he needs a positive people image of supporting the poor and not the elite and that was the basis of his recent voter victory.

The focus will move to India borders and Mekong damming...these are the next impending flashpoints and more dangerous than the SCS incident.

This is the ironic decision which boomer can research on ...in the search for clean hydro power to replace coal / air pollution ...it will impact all the ASEAN partners below the deltas which again show hard decisions are made every day to manage the balance...that's the hardest part and why governance is not for the weak hearted

Laos have taken the lead also in producing hydro power so that they can sell the excess to Thailand and Vietnam but wont be a popular decision as well as that will impact the deltas too.

The collaboration of ASEAN with China on trade will always be there irregardless of the politic climate. The region is big enough for deals to be made in every country, rotating among countries favourable / unfavourable.

Chinese spent USD$229 billion dollars in 2015 for their tourist brigade....be a dumb country to say no to that especially if your numbers are dwindling and they are not spending as much as they use to ....

Check out 7-11 for the latest Chinese pollster feel....Unionpay and Alipay signs appearing everywhere in every retail space....wonder why paypal never got the markets....perhaps because the east is spending more than the west ...

Some would say China was never innovative but I will be happy if your Line function can pay rent, housing bills, gas, electricity, pay your pals for dinner, transfer money etc all within the messaging app instead of just sending stickers. WeChat can do that..hopefully soon they will offer as a similar service in Thailand and ASEAN. It will mean lesser trips to pay bills for airline tickets / bills etc.

The Number One Rule of the CCP in discussions of the South China Sea and the UNCLOS Tribunal in The Hague with its rulings against CCP is to not talk about the South China Sea and the UNCLOS.

Talk yes, but talk about anything else and everything else. Talk about WeChat yes, but be certain that all we do is chat.

[Publicus]

From this week in the Economist.

Creating yet another new island, this time on top of the UNCLOS. Asean too.

Meet the New China....same as the Central Kingdom fantasyland of the Old China. This time however some CCPs think China is presently a global superpower.

CCP believes this is what a 'superpower' does to its neighbors and to the rule of law. CCP Dictators in Beijing do in fact have a new set of Rules on their desk.

The Dictators however want the present storm to blow over, then come back later, after the G-20 in CCP in September. Fact is everyone wants some cooling down for the moment given CCP have suffered a self-sustained complete loss of face. However, it is not going away and it will get noisy again as the seasons change and as the USA gets its new First Couple in the White House.

China will continue to challenge and rebuff what it sees as confected US interests in the South China Sea. China’s claim, and those of the other claimants, have been alive for almost 70 years. But it was Secretary of State Clinton’s remarks at the 2010 ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi that identified US interests in the South China Sea. China will continue to portray the US as a self-interested latecomer to the issue.

The Economist’s daily blog commented, ‘it is also the biggest setback so far to China’s challenge to America’s influence in East Asia’. The early indications are that China will tough it out, impugning the independence and integrity of the five judges of the Permanent Court of Arbitration and reaffirming the entirety of its South China Sea claim.

Truth be told, it has only just begun.

Edited July 30, 2016 by Publicus