Investors assured of Thai resilience

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Investors assured of Thai resilience

THE NATION

 

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong assures investors of the rosy outlook.

 

BANGKOK: -- FOREIGN and local investors have been assured that the Thai economic outlook will improve despite global challenges.

 

At the stock exchange's annual "Thailand Focus" event, which was attended by 112 foreign and 98 local institutional investors, Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong stressed the country's economic resilience thanks to policies in three key areas: measures to help the underprivileged and SMEs; investment in infrastructure and an e-payment system; and measures to enhance productivity through research and development. 

He expressed his conviction that the Stock Exchange of Thailand would further rise on the back of economic improvement, after the 20-per cent year-to-date gain in the SET Index against a 14-per-cent drop last year.

"The number of foreign investors attending this year's event surpassed that of previous years. This shows the Thai market's attractiveness to global investors. The stock market itself is an indicator of the economic condition: The market will advance ahead of favourable economic stories or fall ahead of economic declines," he said.

In a speech, Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob admitted that challenges to the Thai financial system remained huge, but said the system had so far been resilient. 

He said the Thai economy had felt the ripple effects of global anxiety. While last year Thailand experienced a net portfolio outflow of around US$7.6 billion, the first seven months of this year recorded a net inflow of more than $5 billion to bonds and equities. The 10-year bond yield hit a record low at 1.54 per cent.

"Despite volatile asset-price movements, the Thai financial system remains resilient thanks to our sound external position and sound financial system," Veerathai said. 

Foreign holding of Thai bonds remains at less than 10 per cent while holdings in the stock market are around 30 per cent of the market capitalisation. To him, this suggests that Thailand is relatively immune to abrupt capital flights. 

Meanwhile, the current-account surplus is expected to grow further and the aggregate rate of non-performing loans remains manageable at around 2.7 per cent. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Investors-assured-of-Thai-resilience-30294233.html

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2016-09-01

[clockman]

The previous finance minister, said white lies are ok!

[shirtless]

Things will get better , or will they i doubt i would invest in Thailand , 

[Scotwight]

Thailand said the same thing in 1945 after they surrendered at the end of WWII and they were right.  

[williamgeorgeallen]

foreign investors have almost no confidence left in thailand. investment down 90% this year to date. not even these hollow assurances will probably make much difference. hope i am wrong. alot of thais in those foreign owned factories need jobs. they should not pay for the top brass scaring off investors by cutting the tax incentives and causing instability.

[Scotwight]

6 minutes ago, williamgeorgeallen said:

foreign investors have almost no confidence left in thailand. investment down 90% this year to date. not even these hollow assurances will probably make much difference. hope i am wrong. alot of thais in those foreign owned factories need jobs. they should not pay for the top brass scaring off investors by cutting the tax incentives and causing instability.

Link 90% decrease or retract.  

[williamgeorgeallen]

3 minutes ago, Scotwight said:

Link 90% decrease or retract.  

?

[Deez]

5 minutes ago, Scotwight said:

Link 90% decrease or retract.  

Not allowed to link the article from BP. Search yourself. Took me about 10 seconds...

[AlphMichaels]

2.5% projected growth rate looking to 2017 certainly reflects fact they're doing a great work in the region!  Pretty much dead last in ASEAN.

 

[Winniedapu]

"FOREIGN and local investors have been assured that the Thai economic outlook will improve despite global challenges."

 

Still loyally singing the song that it's all the fault of the international community. Nothing to do with the political situation in Thailand... Nothing at all. Couldn't be. No way.

 

Winnie 

[elgordo38]

Just now, Winniedapu said:

"FOREIGN and local investors have been assured that the Thai economic outlook will improve despite global challenges."

 

Still loyally singing the song that it's all the fault of the international community. Nothing to do with the political situation in Thailand... Nothing at all. Couldn't be. No way.

 

Winnie 

With all the U turns this government has made in the past and the fact that ALL governments lie I would be very suspicious of any claims made. I am forecasting the American job numbers tomorrow at 210,000 not to hot and not to cold. The Fed has their finger on the trigger and are itching to push it. 

[little mary sunshine]

555555555

[Thailand]

"Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Thailand in the first half of the year fell by more than 90% in value to the lowest mark in over a decade at US$347 million, reports the Bank of Thailand"

[Lingba]

The very thin veil is finally dropping

 

[Scotwight]

1 hour ago, Thailand said:

"Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Thailand in the first half of the year fell by more than 90% in value to the lowest mark in over a decade at US$347 million, reports the Bank of Thailand"

My gosh that's a lot.  If I was a rich guy with billions and billions of dollars invested in Thailand and someone screwed up an economy that the average 12 year old Burmese kid could make a success I'd be angry.  Really angry.

[waldroj]

There is quite a bit of truth in what is being said. My plots of foreign and local-instutional investment in SET do indeed support this.

 

 

My concern is in the fickleness of the Thai stock market, and the looming event that is sure to create havoc - it seems to be ruled more by superstition than solid fundamentals, however, there are big profits for the taking if one is prepared to jump on the roller coaster and hang on!

 

As for pouring more money into SME's and long-term capital works programs - well that's all well and good if you're a government wanting short-term populist support from a gullible public, but it is certain to catch up with the country at some point. You wouldn't want to be the prime minister when it happens. 

 

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

When you have to "assure" investors something stinks.

[performance]

All they have left is China and noodle bowls. They need to be nicer to the westerners. And punish Thais severely that step out.

[Dumbastheycome]

Interesting charts  from waldroj.  Foreign Transaction  values were  dropping  faster  preceding the  coup than immediately  after and more than indicated in the  longer term with a significant  rally  in the  last  sector of the graphical period. .

Local transaction values fell away preceding the  coup and  declined  rapidly and  continuously afterwards.

Could that indicate  foreign investors  have new  confidence  whilst  local investors are still rejecting  the  removal of funny  money  advantages?

 

[stickyrice2000]

If they have to assure the investors, it indicates problems.

[timendres]

1 hour ago, Dumbastheycome said:

Interesting charts  from waldroj.  Foreign Transaction  values were  dropping  faster  preceding the  coup than immediately  after and more than indicated in the  longer term with a significant  rally  in the  last  sector of the graphical period. .

Local transaction values fell away preceding the  coup and  declined  rapidly and  continuously afterwards.

Could that indicate  foreign investors  have new  confidence  whilst  local investors are still rejecting  the  removal of funny  money  advantages?

 

 

The precipitous drop before the coup was investors realizing the increasing risk of the situation. The coup gave a pause, as investors waited to see what it meant, which was followed by their realization and further mass exodus. The upturn in the last sector of the chart is hardly a "rally". It is still in negative territory, and simply reflects the fact that pretty much everyone who wanted out has already left.

 

[gk10002000]

I don't doubt the Thai resilience.  The people in general really are quite remarkable. But constantly changing governments, constant illegal military coups and takeovers, going to a dictatorship where the rule of law is not maintained or constant is way too much risk for most sane and reasonably conservative investors.  I was ready to put in about 1/2 million USD a few years ago in a few businesses.  The paperwork and graft were fairly well known and somewhat expected, but with the constant military stuff, I am so glad I didn't get involved and did not commit a considerable amount of my net worth into the country.  I will just continue as a tourist and being semi retired going in and out.