Among young voters, Obama's popularity may not transfer

[webfact]

Among young voters, Obama's popularity may not transfer

By BILL BARROW

 

DURHAM, North Carolina (AP) — Paulos Muruts is set to cast his first presidential ballot for Hillary Clinton — if he makes it to the ballot box.

 

"I might need someone on Election Day to actually convince me to go out and vote," says the 19-year-old Duke University student, arguing that the Democratic nominee "has the experience" and "exudes the right temperament" but "doesn't inspire excitement."

 

Yet mention Clinton's would-be predecessor and Muruts' eyes light up.

 

"Love President Obama," he says. "He's got swagger."

 

Muruts represents a frustrating political reality for Clinton in her matchup against Republican nominee Donald Trump: She'll fare far better on Election Day among voters age 18-30, but she could fall short of Obama's totals and turnouts that drove his national victories in 2008 and 2012, a new GenForward survey suggests.

 

The survey math tells the story. The GenForward survey, conducted Sept. 1-14 by the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago with the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found that 54 percent of voters age 18 to 30 held a negative view of Clinton. Just 41 percent said they see her favorably. At the same time, 60 percent of respondents said they approve of Obama's job performance, while 26 percent do not. That's a difference of 19 percentage points between the president's job approval and Clinton's favorability.

 

Any drop off in the "Obama coalition," whether because of defections to minor candidates or eligible voters opting to stay home, could affect the outcomes in battleground states like North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Florida — all of which have significant populations of college students and young professionals.

 

Perhaps most vexing for Clinton is that the GenForward survey depicts a young generation less critical of the current Oval Office occupant than older voters. Obama argues plainly on the campaign trail that "my legacy is on the ballot." But those sentiments just aren't so easily transferred to his preferred successor, even as young voters resoundingly reject Trump and, as a whole, declare Clinton more honest and more qualified than the GOP nominee.

 

A fifth of the young voters surveyed said they will vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, the Green Party's Jill Stein or someone else. Duke graduate student Jennifer Lenart, 23, is among them, citing ongoing wrangles, including Clinton's use of a private email server while she ran the State Department.

 

The server should not be disqualifying, Lenart says. But she argues that the negative attention, fair or not, would hamper a Clinton presidency.

 

"I do like her," Lenart says, but adds, "I'd rather start from a clean slate so we don't have to deal with this anymore."

 

Clinton's favorability deficit is driven by whites: Nearly two-thirds of them professed a negative view of Clinton, the survey shows. But Obama outpaces Clinton across all racial and ethnic lines. Whites: 49 percent job approval for Obama, 33 favorability for Clinton. Blacks: 78 percent for Obama, 60 for Clinton. Latinos: Obama 70, Clinton 52. Asian-Americans: Obama 73, Clinton 50.

 

To be sure, Clinton holds commanding advantages over Trump among young African-Americans, Hispanics and Asian-Americans. But the poll leaves doubts about whether she can turn them out to vote. More than half of young whites say they will definitely vote, but less than 4 in 10 nonwhites say the same.

 

The challenge for Clinton is evident even among young Republicans who say they plan to back Trump.

 

Thayer Atkins, a Republican who said he will reluctantly vote for his party's nominee, doesn't go so far as to offer "approval" for Obama's job performance. But he makes clear his complaints are only related to policy.

 

"I was one of those people who thought we were doomed if he won," says the 20-year-old from Dallas. "But I don't think we are on the brink. We just aren't where we should be."

 

Another Trump voter, Ben Ezroni, said the 55-year-old president offers a connection with young voters that neither Clinton, 68, or Trump, 70, can match. "He seems like a cool guy," said Ezroni, 19, of New York. "Regardless of my political affiliation, I'd love to hang out with him."

 

That leaves Clinton and her backers to strike the right balance between using Obama as a forceful advocate in the campaign's home stretch, while she works herself to convince younger voters to view the Nov. 8 ballot as a clear, even if uninspiring, choice between her policies and Trump's.

 

Vikram Seethepalli, a 19-year-old Duke student from Vermont, uses that latter framing when trying to convince friends to back Clinton.

 

Seethepalli supported his home state senator, Bernie Sanders, in the Democratic primary. He says he remains concerned about Clinton's reliance on financial support from corporations and wealthy individuals. But, he says, "I put it in the simplest terms. If Trump is elected and you voted for Gary Johnson, will you regret your decision if thousands of people are being deported and you didn't vote for the only other viable candidate?"

___

The poll of 1,851 adults age 18-30 was conducted Sept. 1-14 using a sample drawn from the probability-based GenForward panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. young adult population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

 

The survey was paid for by the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago, using grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Ford Foundation.

 

Respondents were first selected randomly using address-based sampling methods, and later interviewed online or by phone.

___

Online:

GenForward polls: —http://www.genforwardsurvey.com/

Black Youth Project: —http://blackyouthproject.com/

AP-NORC: —http://www.apnorc.org/

___

AP reporter Kathleen Ronayne in Raleigh, North Carolina, and AP Polling Director Emily Swanson in Washington, D.C., contributed. 

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-10-04

 

[Ulysses G.]

Let's hope these kids stay home. Anyone who voted for Obama because they think he is "cool" is not mature enough to vote.

[boomerangutang]

 I  voted, first chance I had, at 18.   Like HRC, I got started as a Republican, ha ha.  Then I saw Nixon and the folly of my ways.   Later, there was Reagan's failed 'trickle down economics'  which pissed on everyone lower than rich - and is what Trump now favors.  Youngsters need to vote to keep the Trumps out of the WH, unless they want lingering disaster for America and their kids.

[OMGImInPattaya]

Let me think about this for a minute...a young (for a pres. candidate) bi-racial brotha who smoked dope in college, was born in Hawaii and raised in Indonesia, with a young family, who loves basketball...and a frumpy old white grandmother from Illinois, who's married to a serial woman abuser, with a daughter married to a Wall Street investment banker, who probably likes to play bridge. Yeah, I'd say there's probably a motivation gap.

Edited October 4, 2016 by OMGImInPattaya

[hawker9000]

3 hours ago, Ulysses G. said:

Let's hope these kids stay home. Anyone who voted for Obama because they think he is "cool" is not mature enough to vote.

 

Yet where would the dems be without that mentality?   'Thing is, I don't think many of the young'uns - the ones who don't have a mummy's or daddy's health plan to cling to (maybe cuz mummy & daddy don't even have one anymore!) or home to live in, or job doing anything beyond flipping burgers - are all that wild about the way things have turned out.  Some are actually growing up and beginning to smell the coffee a bit earlier than they otherwise would have.  'Not quite the utopia they were planning on, and possibly not as enthusiastic about bothering to vote as they were in '08 and '12.   Obviously Trump is never going to capture their hearts & minds, but Hillary just isn't inspiring them at all.

 

[balance45]

 

Yes, I can see why.

[freebyrd]

7 hours ago, Ulysses G. said:

Let's hope these kids stay home. Anyone who voted for Obama because they think he is "cool" is not mature enough to vote.

 

They are perhaps more mature than Trump.

[atyclb]

Awaiting Wikileaks announcement

[Jingthing]

8 hours ago, Ulysses G. said:

Let's hope these kids stay home. Anyone who voted for Obama because they think he is "cool" is not mature enough to vote.

You may as well say Vote for trump, and you bloody well know it. 

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, atyclb said:

Awaiting Wikileaks announcement

Yes ... funny the "law and order" republicans hate cyber criminals when it hurts them. 

[212Roger]

I hope they vote for an "America," Trump.  Not a "Globalist," Hillary.

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, 212Roger said:

I hope they vote for an "America," Trump.  Not a "Globalist," Hillary.

There is comes. The birther movement transferred from Obama to Hillary Clinton. Won't work! 

[hawker9000]

18 hours ago, freebyrd said:

 

They are perhaps more mature than Trump.

 

More mature than some Trump-haters too.

[Skywalker69]

On 2016-10-04 at 1:20 AM, Ulysses G. said:

Let's hope these kids stay home. Anyone who voted for Obama because they think he is "cool" is not mature enough to vote.

I hope you stays home aswell.

[freebyrd]

49 minutes ago, hawker9000 said:

 

More mature than some Trump-haters too.

 

If that's directed at me, you are making the wrong assumption. I'm not given to hating anyone, just expressing an opinion.

[freebyrd]

18 hours ago, atyclb said:

Awaiting Wikileaks announcement

Don't hold your breath.

[boomerangutang]

18 hours ago, atyclb said:

Awaiting Wikileaks announcement

 

Yes, Trumpsters are hoping mightily that there will be some dirt on HRC in upcoming leaks.  That's all Trump fans have to look forward to, because their hero candidate is bereft of any good ideas. Trump has struck out re; detailed policy suggestions.  He's comical in shouting red-faced, "We'll make America great again.  95% of blacks will love me.  Everyone will have a great job.  ISIS will be destroyed, You will love me, ......" .....ad nauseum.  The hyper salesman can fool some of the people (beer-addled pot-bellied rednecks, mostly), but young Americans aren't dummies.  

 

I meet hundreds of young Americans each year - up here at my tourist venue in Chiang Rai.  They can see through Trump's BS as well as anyone.   They wanted Bernie, but will vote for HRC - to keep The Divider far away from residing in the White House.

 

[Rancid]

It is a dilemma. Generally the young haven't seen enough of life to raise their distrust of politicians, yet this election is truly novel, two narcissistic personalities with loads of baggage and no redeeming traits offered up as non-choice.

 

Also the youngins have different priorities, concerned with student debts and employment, or lack of, prospects. One offers more of the same failed policies that got us where we are and the other promises unlikely to yield any actual change. Suppose Trumps small chance beats Hillary's zero.

[freebyrd]

True. It just goes to show what a silly world we live in when someone that can play great music is regarded as a political authority.

 

.......or someone who is a shady businessman can be regarded as a serious candidate for the post of leader of the free world?

[atyclb]

1 hour ago, boomerangutang said:

 

Yes, Trumpsters are hoping mightily that there will be some dirt on HRC in upcoming leaks.  That's all Trump fans have to look forward to, because their hero candidate is bereft of any good ideas. Trump has struck out re; detailed policy suggestions.  He's comical in shouting red-faced, "We'll make America great again.  95% of blacks will love me.  Everyone will have a great job.  ISIS will be destroyed, You will love me, ......" .....ad nauseum.  The hyper salesman can fool some of the people (beer-addled pot-bellied rednecks, mostly), but young Americans aren't dummies.  

 

I meet hundreds of young Americans each year - up here at my tourist venue in Chiang Rai.  They can see through Trump's BS as well as anyone.   They wanted Bernie, but will vote for HRC - to keep The Divider far away from residing in the White House.

 

 bernies not bad, but look what the little princess did to him and to her own (american) people by stealing the nomination from bernie. the clintons have lots of dirty laundry although i always liked bill for his charisma and intelligence. bill and hillary combined can never come close to JFK.

 

theres already tons of verifiable dirt on hillary, all the scandals, selling influence, money from regimes that have horrific human rights abuses, etc etc etc.  trump is the lesser of the evils.

[Jingthing]

The nomination was not stolen. Hill got millions more votes than Bernie, fair and square, and the delegate totals weren't even close.

[Steely Dan]

There is comes. The birther movement transferred from Obama to Hillary Clinton. Won't work! 

The ideology of globalism can afflict any human being on Earth, nothing to do with birtherism.


Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect

[thaibeachlovers]

Obama in 2008

youthful, half black, no bad record, energetic, promised hope and change.

Clinton in 2016

old, white, bought by Wall St, scandals for many years, bad record, falls over, promises more of the past 7 1/2 failed years.

 

Sure, she has every hope of gaining Obama's supporters to vote for her, NOT.

 

Be afraid, be very afraid.

 

 

[atyclb]

8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The nomination was not stolen. Hill got millions more votes than Bernie, fair and square, and the delegate totals weren't even close.

 

1. Hillary only won 2,205 delegates but needed 2,382. Sanders had 1,846 delegates.  But Hillary was awarded 602 super delegates to Sanders’ 48.  So, as was stated in the post, “If the situation was reversed and Sanders was given the same number of super delegates as Hillary, Sanders would have won the nomination.”

Also leaked DNC emails prior to the resignation of one of their top people.

 

[Jingthing]

You're misinformed about super delegates. That system preceded the Clinton campaign. It was not a rigging. All parties have rules. They can change but the rules were in effect from the beginning for all candidates. Sanders lost the game under the rules, fair and square. 

[Silurian]

11 hours ago, atyclb said:

 

1. Hillary only won 2,205 delegates but needed 2,382. Sanders had 1,846 delegates.  But Hillary was awarded 602 super delegates to Sanders’ 48.  So, as was stated in the post, “If the situation was reversed and Sanders was given the same number of super delegates as Hillary, Sanders would have won the nomination.”

Also leaked DNC emails prior to the resignation of one of their top people.

 

 

I think it is funny how these "Bernie Math'ers" love to calculate the delegate count. First, they complain that the super delegates shouldn't count, but then they lose the regular delegates. Then they complain that Hillary got a major majority of super delegates, but then if we split the super delegates per the normal delegate ratio (2382 to 1846) then Bernie still loses. So finally they complain that Bernie would have gotten enough super delegates if it wasn't for those gosh darn DNC emails. Please, give me a break. Even Bernie knows that isn't true. To paraphrase Sarah Silverman, "You Bernie supports are being ridiculous".