May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

I agree. But they will not even entertain the idea of going down the 'make an example of the UK' route once brexit is fully underway. They will only want the best possible trading conditions for themselves.

 

No. They will want to ensure that there is little incentive for others to leave the EU and seek a separate deal ... as the economic cost of the EU unravelling would far outweigh any business that they lose by taking a tougher stance with the UK. 

 

There is no pre article 50 negotiations (the Brexit camp said there would be) and there will be no trade agreement with the EU until the UK exits the EU. You've been sold a pup ... and not just for Christmas!

 

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, SheungWan said:

 

I guess for some the Nissan example went in one ear and out the other if it contradicted their pre-formed narrative.

 

Ah yes. The Nissan example. Remainers were shouting from the rooftops when Nissan mooted pulling out of the UK. The government talked with Nissan and, not only did they not pull out, they committed to building two new models. 'Bribery!!!' remainers chanted. 'The government is subsidising them, and every other business will want the same! It'll lead to ruin!' But it turned out the government hadn't bribed Nissan: it had just convinced them that it's brexit strategy would give them unhindered access to EU markets. 'Well.....it's, er, still a sort of bribery, isn't it?' No, it isn't. But if it makes remainers feel better, we could pretend that it is .

[Grouse]

Do you not understand what indemnity means?

 

IF we stay in the single market / customs union there will indeed be no need for compenstion

 

IF we leave there will need to be compensation. That could be very expensive.

 

It is good news that Nissan will continue investing.

[cumgranosalum]

4 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Ah yes. The Nissan example. Remainers were shouting from the rooftops when Nissan mooted pulling out of the UK. The government talked with Nissan and, not only did they not pull out, they committed to building two new models. 'Bribery!!!' remainers chanted. 'The government is subsidising them, and every other business will want the same! It'll lead to ruin!' But it turned out the government hadn't bribed Nissan: it had just convinced them that it's brexit strategy would give them unhindered access to EU markets. 'Well.....it's, er, still a sort of bribery, isn't it?' No, it isn't. But if it makes remainers feel better, we could pretend that it is .

The fact is you are referring to a situation that would not have arisen at all in Brexit had not occurred - and now the UK is going to have to give subsidies to keep Nissan jobs. This was not needed before Brexit. Also the rest of UK manufacturing will also expect similar protection.

I think as this unfolds it will become fairly obvious that this was a vain attempt by the government to inject some good news into a gloomy landscape - and in the end it will be seen as an impractical or hugely expensive solution to a problem that is much larger than Brexiteers (at least the Brostrich element) appear to realise.

 

There is no such thing as a free lunch

Britain's Brexit subsidies for carmakers could top wage bills - Reuters

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[SgtRock]

7 hours ago, SheungWan said:

 

I guess for some the Nissan example went in one ear and out the other if it contradicted their pre-formed narrative.

 

What Nissan example ?

 

Could you, or any of the others who constantly allude to some mythical sweetheart deal that has been done between the UK Government provide an independent, verifiable source so that we can all be party to this mythical deal. Otherwise it comes across as nothing but trolling.

 

Both the UK Government and Nissan have denied that there has been any sweetheart deal, although I will conclude that would be a given.

 

The UK Government has already put out a statement saying that it had assured Nissan that it would be trying to obtain the equivalent of an FTA for the automotive industry and has been posted on this very thread.

 

So if you, or one of the others know and can prove otherwise, we would all be delighted to hear that info.

[SgtRock]

Changers.

 

Since you brought up DB in response to my post, provided with independent sources, to the current Italian Banks massive problems.

 

Did you manage to read, digest and understand the various links I gave you pertaining to DB ?

 

Here are a couple more for you. The first one highlights very well what I told you about a month ago regarding assets. It matters not what DB thinks its assets are worth, what matters is what potential buyers thing that they are worth. Hence the reason that they have failed miserably in their attempt to offload Postbank.

 

Quote

Deutsche Bank is in trouble — and that’s bad news for all of us.

 

It goes on to say:

 

Quote

The stock market puts a price tag of around $15 billion on Deutsche Bank. This figure represents simple arithmetic: the number of shares multiplied by the stock’s price. By contrast, the company says its net worth is more than four times that at $68 billion.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-deutsche-banks-troubles-should-worry-us/2016/11/02/7f0665e0-a11e-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html?utm_term=.0e064a28a9c9

 

Whoops. Net value of assets put at $ 15 Billion against a DB valuation of $ 68 Billion and the DOJ about to turn the screw on a $ 14 Billion fine. Seems like a great place to be if your head is firmly jammed in the sand.

 

Quote

Deutsche Bank set to be among hardest hit by new capital rules

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/deutsche-bank-set-to-be-among-hardest-hit-by-new-capital-rules.html

 

I said it yesterday and I will say it again today. You can only fight fires for so long before the flames win.

Edited November 3, 2016 by SgtRock

[cumgranosalum]

One of the Brexit mantras was that UK had to pay to stay in the Eu.....now it looks as if we will have to pay more to stay out.

[Laughing Gravy]

25 minutes ago, cumgranosalum said:

One of the Brexit mantras was that UK had to pay to stay in the Eu.....now it looks as if we will have to pay more to stay out.

 

Really. so where are your sources that prove this amazing fact of yours, that the UK will have to pay more than it is paying now (which is extortionate). Did you see it written on the  wall in some public toilet?

 

http://www.cityam.com/1414168815/eu-budget-map-how-much-has-uk-been-asked-pay-compared-other-countries

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/336667/Now-our-payments-to-the-EU-hit-53m-each-day

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8036097.stm

 

[sandyf]

It is very easy to get mixed up between one issue and the the next. Yesterdays decision by the FOMC to hold back on an interest rate rise sent the dollar index down a bit further. This resulted in a significant boost for gold, hit 1306 overnight, and sterling which peaked at 1.234 before dropping back to 1.228. On the rise again this morning and currently 1.232.

Of course this rise in the pound will lead to a great deal of speculation in more ways than one.

[sandyf]

The High Court will rule tomorrow morning whether Theresa May has the right to bypass Parliament when she triggers Britain’s exit from the European Union.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-legal-challenge-latest-article-50-theresa-may-parliament-vote-trigger-approval-a7394206.html

[sandyf]

A couple of weeks ago Marmite hit the news, now it is pork pies.

 

Brexit puts pork pies at threat, says Nick Clegg

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-threat-to-pork-pies-a7392931.html

[Laughing Gravy]

18 minutes ago, sandyf said:

A couple of weeks ago Marmite hit the news, now it is pork pies.

 

Brexit puts pork pies at threat, says Nick Clegg

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-threat-to-pork-pies-a7392931.html

If Nick Clegg says it then it must be true. Between, him, Blair and Mandelson they will say and try anything to keep the UK in the EU following their masters orders. I am expecting toilet paper to be in the news soon due to brexit, as there certainly seems a need for it with the amount required to clean up, with regards to the talk spoken by these three Muppets.

[Laughing Gravy]

Another Reason to get out of the EU. More control and telling us what we MUST do.

 

 

"Rachel Springall, of the comparison website, said: “Many people will wonder why, if interest rates are falling, it doesn’t apply to credit cards.”

European Union legislation introduced last year capped the amount that banks can charge retailers when a customer uses their card to 0.3 per cent for credit card transactions and 0.2 per cent for debit cards."

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/soaring-cost-of-credit-cards-blamed-on-eu-5dd8hrcr8

[cumgranosalum]

2 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 

Really. so where are your sources that prove this amazing fact of yours, that the UK will have to pay more than it is paying now (which is extortionate). Did you see it written on the  wall in some public toilet?

 

http://www.cityam.com/1414168815/eu-budget-map-how-much-has-uk-been-asked-pay-compared-other-countries

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/336667/Now-our-payments-to-the-EU-hit-53m-each-day

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8036097.stm

 

No..Reuters ..but I know how to research and analyse not just Google and regurgitate.

 

If you disagree with a point I've made and want to be taken seriously,why not construct and put forward an argument in favor of your stance? 

Edited November 3, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[Grouse]

Yet again

 

The DoT had to INDEMNIFY Nissan against increased costs due to Brexit

 

As far as I can tell, that means retaining membership of the single market / customs union OR paying massive financial compensation.

 

We don't know which at this time, but obviously staying in is the best solution

Edited November 3, 2016 by Grouse

[cumgranosalum]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

If Nick Clegg says it then it must be true. Between, him, Blair and Mandelson they will say and try anything to keep the UK in the EU following their masters orders. I am expecting toilet paper to be in the news soon due to brexit, as there certainly seems a need for it with the amount required to clean up, with regards to the talk spoken by these three Muppets.

Rather than address the messenger,why not address the message......i have to say your lack of coherent argument and constant use of ad hominem somewhat invalidates your posts

[Laughing Gravy]

12 minutes ago, cumgranosalum said:

No..Reuters ..but I know how to research and analyse not just Google and regurgitate.

 

If you disagree with a point I've made and want to be taken seriously,why not construct and put forward an argument in favor of your stance? 

The argument was in the links I sent. So reuters as you claim said it. have you read the statement I know how to research and analyse.

 

Yes I do disagree with what you or Reuters supposedly have said. So as I have put the figures of how much the UK gives to the EU and your claim was that we could be paying more when we leave the EU. so once again what is the figure.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Laughing Gravy

[Laughing Gravy]

Well I guess it just isn't me who thinks the same way.

 

An SNP donor has said that Brexit is “not as big a deal as people think” and “may prove to be good for Europe”.

Sir Brian Souter, the co-founder of Stagecoach, the transport company, and the Nationalists’ biggest business backer over the years, said that the damage that leaving the EU would cause was being overestimated

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/damage-from-brexit-being-overestimated-says-souter-6553fk28d

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Another Reason to get out of the EU. More control and telling us what we MUST do.

 

 

"Rachel Springall, of the comparison website, said: “Many people will wonder why, if interest rates are falling, it doesn’t apply to credit cards.”

European Union legislation introduced last year capped the amount that banks can charge retailers when a customer uses their card to 0.3 per cent for credit card transactions and 0.2 per cent for debit cards."

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/soaring-cost-of-credit-cards-blamed-on-eu-5dd8hrcr8

 

Do you understand what you write?

 

EU caps the amount credit card companies can charge retailers (and therefore you)

 

EU stopped the mobile phone charge rip off roaming charges

 

EU are forcing the government to cut NO2 levels which cause 40,000 UK deaths per annum

 

The evil bastards. The Con party would have taken care of these things themselves ?

[jpinx]

8 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Well I guess it just isn't me who thinks the same way.

 

An SNP donor has said that Brexit is “not as big a deal as people think” and “may prove to be good for Europe”.

Sir Brian Souter, the co-founder of Stagecoach, the transport company, and the Nationalists’ biggest business backer over the years, said that the damage that leaving the EU would cause was being overestimated

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/damage-from-brexit-being-overestimated-says-souter-6553fk28d

It's nice to hear that some of the intelligent long-term businessmen in Scotland are coming to realise that Brexit is not a dead-end. :)

 

The Nissan deal apparently was some form of guarantee that their tarrifs would not significantly change for the worse.  Whether such a guarantee was even written down is a moot point... 

[Laughing Gravy]

9 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Do you understand what you write?

Of course I do, do you!

Edited November 3, 2016 by Laughing Gravy
made an error and had to change in case the grammar brigade lynch me.

[Grouse]

33 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

The argument was in the links I sent. So reuters as you claim said it. have you read the statement I know how to research and analyse.

 

Yes I do disagree with what you or Reuters supposedly have said. So as I have put the figures of how much the UK gives to the EU and your claim was that we could be paying more when we leave the EU. so once again what is the figure.

Don't be silly, nobody knows the exact figure.

 

But, to get the order of magnitude, consider that we exported 220B GBP of goods to the rest of the EU in 2015. Let's say 10% additional costs - so 22B which is more than double what we pay to the EU in net fees.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Grouse
Typo

[Laughing Gravy]

7 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Do you understand what you write?

 

EU caps the amount credit card companies can charge retailers (and therefore you)

 

EU stopped the mobile phone charge rip off roaming charges

 

EU are forcing the government to cut NO2 levels which cause 40,000 UK deaths per annum

 

The evil bastards. The Con party would have taken care of these things themselves ?

 

I know you will love this Grouse.

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/438402/EU-laws-that-cost-the-UK-a-fortune-and-achieve-nothing

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/8067510/Up-to-half-of-British-laws-come-from-Europe-House-of-Commons-Library-claims.html

[SgtRock]

9 hours ago, chiang mai said:

A new incentive emerges:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/rexit-uk-credit-rating-moodys-theresa-may-single-market-deal-talks-negotiations-1034-oh-and-a7393026.html

 

And before we go there yes, I do understand some posters may have issues (huge temptation to end the post here but shall continue regardless) with Moody's and their perceived bias. Regardless, Moody's has a job to do and any continuation of their earlier perceived bias reduces or eliminates their ability to function as a credit risk organization, ergo, the risk assessment is real.

 

On a lighter note, I just ate fish and chips in Bridlington, the first in 45 years and they were dire and I can only recommend Okhaju in CM as being far far tastier.

 

Does that apply to their assessment of DB also ?

 

Quote

Moody's Warns Deutsche Bank Is Dangerously Close To Falling Below Its "Default Point"

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-28/moodys-warns-deutsche-bank-dangerously-close-falling-below-its-default-point

 

Back in May they had this to say

 

Quote

Moody's downgrades Deutsche Bank's ratings (senior debt to Baa2, long term deposits to A3 and counterparty risk assessment to A3(cr)); outlook stable

 

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Deutsche-Banks-ratings-senior-debt-to-Baa2-long--PR_349327

 

So if their assessment in May was to downgrade but stable, to moved to falling '' Dangerously close to its default point '' In October, how bad a state are DB actually in ?

 

Is that assessment, to use your words '' Real '' or are they talking out their @ss because it does not fit with your way of thinking ?

 

It also appears that the some French and the Irish are also joining ranks with the Germans who are calling for adult dialogue over Brexit and not the rhetoric that has spewed forth from the EU to date.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/eu-will-lose-more-from-brexit-than-britain-says-leading-investor/

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/02/europe-in-danger-of-losing-the-plot-if-it-obsesses-over-punishin/

[Grouse]

15 minutes ago, jpinx said:

It's nice to hear that some of the intelligent long-term businessmen in Scotland are coming to realise that Brexit is not a dead-end. :)

 

The Nissan deal apparently was some form of guarantee that their tarrifs would not significantly change for the worse.  Whether such a guarantee was even written down is a moot point... 

 

So what do you suggest was in the letter that enabled Goshn to invest billions? Was it a night out with May? Come on, get a grip....

[Grouse]

16 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Of course I do you!

 

Nicely put ?

[Johnyo]

 

Do you understand what you write?

 

EU caps the amount credit card companies can charge retailers (and therefore you)

 

EU stopped the mobile phone charge rip off roaming charges

 

EU are forcing the government to cut NO2 levels which cause 40,000 UK deaths per annum

 

The evil bastards. The Con party would have taken care of these things themselves [emoji6]

Wow after that comment I would leave the thread never to return.

I see there is only one comment I can quote. The above message was the Laughable Gravy

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[Grouse]

16 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 

I know you will love this Grouse.

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/438402/EU-laws-that-cost-the-UK-a-fortune-and-achieve-nothing

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/8067510/Up-to-half-of-British-laws-come-from-Europe-House-of-Commons-Library-claims.html

 

What it says to me is that the EU is generally a benign influence and gives great benefit to the underprivileged. You will excuse me if I don't read the Express in its totality

[Johnyo]

Not a currency expert but I would expect some volatility depending on the outcome.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/03/high-court-parliament-brexit-theresa-may-chief-justice?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[chiang mai]

25 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Does that apply to their assessment of DB also ?

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-28/moodys-warns-deutsche-bank-dangerously-close-falling-below-its-default-point

 

Back in May they had this to say

 

 

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Deutsche-Banks-ratings-senior-debt-to-Baa2-long--PR_349327

 

So if their assessment in May was to downgrade but stable, to moved to falling '' Dangerously close to its default point '' In October, how bad a state are DB actually in ?

 

Is that assessment, to use your words '' Real '' or are they talking out their @ss because it does not fit with your way of thinking ?

 

It also appears that the some French and the Irish are also joining ranks with the Germans who are calling for adult dialogue over Brexit and not the rhetoric that has spewed forth from the EU to date.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/eu-will-lose-more-from-brexit-than-britain-says-leading-investor/

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/02/europe-in-danger-of-losing-the-plot-if-it-obsesses-over-punishin/

 

There's no doubt at all that their assessment of the risks in both cases is accurate and correct. But I don't think that Moody's takes those extra steps and suggests/guesses what might happen if they become non-viable and they certainly don't go so far as imagining what might happen to the EU as a result of that risk. All Moody's does is to assess and grade the risk associated with doing business with a particular financial organization, it doesn't crystal ball gaze and try to imagine what might happen if that risk is accepted or ignored.