May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[SheungWan]

Just now, ilostmypassword said:

This is otherwise known as a flat tax. It is a great favorite of right wing economists because it would provide a huge tax break to the rich.

 

Unlikely to be a subject of discussion between Theresa May and the EU.

[SheungWan]

7 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Anybody who understands quantum theory would understand that it has nothing to do with the behavior of complex systems above the atomic level.  Unless you're talking about specialized devices such as quantum computers. Certainly quantum theory has nothing to do with economics. And its time consideration are in fractions of fractions of fractions of seconds.  

 

I do wonder however, how many of the forum Brexiteers exist in a state similar to that of Schrodinger's Cat. On a varied note Theresa's preparations already appear to be disappearing down a wormhole.

[SgtRock]

And speculation about the US election has just caused Sterling to rise above 1.23

 

Quote

Pound hits $1.23

Kerching! The pound just hit $1.23 for the first time in two weeks.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/02/us-election-uncertainty-stock-markets-uk-construction-federal-reserve-live

 

Nope.

 

Speculators cannot influence the markets. Right 

[ilostmypassword]

36 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

And speculation about the US election has just caused Sterling to rise above 1.23

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/02/us-election-uncertainty-stock-markets-uk-construction-federal-reserve-live

 

Nope.

 

Speculators cannot influence the markets. Right 

There's a difference between speculators reacting over a few days to news and the allegation that they are deliberately keep lowering the value of  the pound over a period of several months.  And it's a very strange the way you put it. It's not the speculators influence the market, speculators are part of the market.

[ilostmypassword]

I've been doing a little bit of research into the 13 billion in tariffs hard Brexit will cost the EU versus the 5 billion in tariffs it will cost the UK. You know the reason for the difference? Exports. The EU exports a lot more to the UK than the UK does to the EU.  So I suppose you can say this 8 billion difference slightlymitigates the huge trade imbalance between the UK and the EU, the fact remains that the UK is running a huge trade deficit with the EU.  So whose shoes would most countries rather be in?  The one that imports a lot more than it exports, or the one that exports a lot more than it imports.  I think the answer to that one is clear.

[MJP]

2 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

I've been doing a little bit of research into the 13 billion in tariffs hard Brexit will cost the EU versus the 5 billion in tariffs it will cost the UK. You know the reason for the difference? Exports. The EU exports a lot more to the UK than the UK does to the EU.  So I suppose you can say this 8 billion difference slightlymitigates the huge trade imbalance between the UK and the EU, the fact remains that the UK is running a huge trade deficit with the EU.  So whose shoes would most countries rather be in?  The one that imports a lot more than it exports, or the one that exports a lot more than it imports.  I think the answer to that one is clear.

 

This is the big problem regardless of Brexit. The UK's been running a deficit in all and sundry for a couple of decades now. The inevitable cometh.

[ilostmypassword]

Just now, MJP said:

 

This is the big problem regardless of Brexit. The UK's been running a deficit in all and sundry for a couple of decades now. The inevitable cometh.

Not in services. Especially not in financial services.

[SgtRock]

Here is one to keep your beady little eyes on.

 

Share trading was still suspended on Monday after shedding 25% value

 

Today.

 

Quote

Shares in Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena fell 6% in early trade on Wednesday, prompting an automatic trading suspension, after the withdrawal of an alternative rescue plan for Italy's third-largest lender. 

 

Quote

Concerns are mounting over Italian banks, many of which are weighed down by massive bad debts and thought to be a risk to the wider economy.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37801333

 

Renzi, having previously been given the cold shoulder by the ECB in respect of loosening fiscal control, add into the equation of the monetary damage caused by earthquakes and things are not looking too good for the Italians or Italy.

 

You can only fight fires for so long before they burn out of control.

[SgtRock]

15 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

I've been doing a little bit of research into the 13 billion in tariffs hard Brexit will cost the EU versus the 5 billion in tariffs it will cost the UK. You know the reason for the difference? Exports. The EU exports a lot more to the UK than the UK does to the EU.  So I suppose you can say this 8 billion difference slightlymitigates the huge trade imbalance between the UK and the EU, the fact remains that the UK is running a huge trade deficit with the EU.  So whose shoes would most countries rather be in?  The one that imports a lot more than it exports, or the one that exports a lot more than it imports.  I think the answer to that one is clear.

 

Do not confuse individual Countries with the EU as a whole, when trying to compare EU exports to the UK against UK exports to the EU.

 

It is an easy mistake but very basic mistake to make.

 

There is a reason why the UK, along with 3 others are in the Top 10 of World economies. Those 4  along with a some others are currently subsidising about 20 current EU members. 

 

It is unsustainable and at some stage it will all go pear-shaped and collapse.

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

This is otherwise known as a flat tax. It is a great favorite of right wing economists because it would provide a huge tax break to the rich.

It was a while ago, but I think that was why I came to the conclusion that UKIP was yet another party favouring the rich.  IIRC UKIP had a similar 'flat tax' policy?

 

I agree that our tax policies are WAY too complicated and only those who are able to employ accountants (and not part of PAYE) schemes are able to take advantage of this.

 

But then again, a 'flat tax' income rate has to result in higher taxes in other areas - mainly purchase taxes, and these hit the poor far harder than the rich.

[chiang mai]

17 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

Here is one to keep your beady little eyes on.

 

Share trading was still suspended on Monday after shedding 25% value

 

Today.

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37801333

 

Renzi, having previously been given the cold shoulder by the ECB in respect of loosening fiscal control, add into the equation of the monetary damage caused by earthquakes and things are not looking too good for the Italians or Italy.

 

You can only fight fires for so long before they burn out of control.

 

How's Deutsche Bank doing, oh wait, they just reported a profit last quarter, does that upset the rhetorical end of the EU program and if so, is that program now replaced by the Italian Banks end of the EU program or similar? Just asking!

[SgtRock]

25 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

How's Deutsche Bank doing, oh wait, they just reported a profit last quarter, does that upset the rhetorical end of the EU program and if so, is that program now replaced by the Italian Banks end of the EU program or similar? Just asking!

 

Funny you should ask. Apparently they only made a profit this quarter because they had very little in the way of litigation fees

 

Quote

Pre-tax profit was 619 million euros, compared to last year's loss of 6.10 billion euros. The profit was achieved despite cost burden of restructuring and severance, litigation, impairments and de-risking of Non-Core Operations Unit of 1.0 billion euros.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/deutsche-bank-turns-to-profit-in-q3-revenues-rise--quick-facts-20161027-00015#ixzz4OrK5ZKz9

 

You should also try reading here:

 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/the-story-of-the-self-destruction-of-deutsche-bank-a-1118157.html

 

Or perhaps here:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-28/moodys-warns-deutsche-bank-dangerously-close-falling-below-its-default-point

 

Or how about the reported 7000 lawsuits it is still facing: You can also read it in the FT if you are a subscriber.

 

Quote

The banking industry has become a quagmire of rules and regulations. According to the Financial Times, Deutsche Bank is currently dealing with 7,000 lawsuits and regulatory actions.

 

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13684780/1/here-are-the-signs-that-deutsche-bank-is-in-big-trouble.html

 

Shortly after the US election the DOJ will start pursuing DB for the $ 14 Billion fine, that will be the killer for DB.

 

Quite possibly the EU and the UK will not need to worry about Brexit negotiations.

[MJP]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

Not in services. Especially not in financial services.

 

Having the economy so reliant on such a dodgy sector was never a good plan.

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

And speculation about the US election has just caused Sterling to rise above 1.23

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/02/us-election-uncertainty-stock-markets-uk-construction-federal-reserve-live

 

Nope.

 

Speculators cannot influence the markets. Right 

 

Why does it have to be speculators, why can't it be simply another large order customer (like The Treasury) who had no choice but to roll over a product into GBP and thus caused it's value to rise?

[SgtRock]

10 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Why does it have to be speculators, why can't it be simply another large order customer (like The Treasury) who had no choice but to roll over a product into GBP and thus caused it's value to rise?

 

Take that up with the Guardian and BBC, they reported it.

 

Some more reading for you from Bloomberg, reported today.

 

Quote

David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist of Deutsche Bank AG has taken those concerns to a whole new level, and has just published an excoriating attack on ECB policy. The research note is entitled “The Dark Sides of QE.” Here’s a taste:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/deutsche-bank-thinks-draghi-s-gone-over-to-the-dark-side

 

When you are in a world of sh!t, start lobbing smoke grenades.

 

And apparently 

 

Quote

German Economists Urge EU to Shun Brexit Taboos to Keep U.K. In

 

Quote

The short-term economic effects on the U.K. are likely to remain moderate and will affect the U.K. more than its partners, though “a sharp collapse” is not very likely, the council said in its annual report to German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday. If Brexit can’t be stopped, negotiations must seek to strike a balance between preserving close economic links and avoiding the risk of setting a precedent for other countries, it said.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/german-economists-urge-eu-to-shun-brexit-taboos-to-keep-u-k-in

 

The ever pragmatic Germans are beginning to see sense.

[ilostmypassword]

 

 

17 minutes ago, MJP said:

 

Having the economy so reliant on such a dodgy sector was never a good plan.

.  I agree with you. But the UK has had so much attrition in its manufacturing base that without the financial services, it's balance of payments would be a lot worse. And even in financial services its record has been pretty dismal. The only major British financial house left standing is N. Rothschild.  All the others succumbed to American competition. There's not going to be much loyalty there to the UK

[MJP]

Just now, ilostmypassword said:

 

 

.  I agree with you. But the UK has had so much attrition in its manufacturing base that without the financial services, it's financial balance would be a lot worse. And even in financial services its record has been pretty dismal. The only major British financial house left standing is N. Rothschild.  All the others succumbed to American competition. There's not going to be much loyalty there to the UK

 

Brother, it was always going to come to pass that the UK's economic imbalances were going to catch up. It was only getting worse. Perhaps it's time to nationally tend the garden?

 

The UK will never again be the wealthy place it so very much wasn't in the first place.

[Khun Han]

7 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Take that up with the Guardian and BBC, they reported it.

 

Some more reading for you from Bloomberg, reported today.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/deutsche-bank-thinks-draghi-s-gone-over-to-the-dark-side

 

When you are in a world of sh!t, start lobbing smoke grenades.

 

And apparently 

 

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/german-economists-urge-eu-to-shun-brexit-taboos-to-keep-u-k-in

 

The ever pragmatic Germans are beginning to see sense.

 

The Germans always see sense when it comes to the nitty gritty, and brexit is not going to be an exception. That will very likely be one of the reasons Nissan are so confident about the UK's post-brexit trading conditions. It wouldn't surprise me if tentative arrangements are already privately in hand.

[SgtRock]

6 minutes ago, MJP said:

Perhaps it's time to nationally tend the garden?

 

I have said it more times than I care to recall.

 

Deal with home and then worry about the rest.

[SheungWan]

Just now, SgtRock said:

 

I have said it more times than I care to recall.

 

Deal with home and then worry about the rest.

 

Dad's Army Theory of the Universe and Everything. Shout loud at the foreigners and keep repeating yourself.

[MJP]

2 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

Dad's Army Theory of the Universe and Everything. Shout loud at the foreigners and keep repeating yourself.

 

Works for you.

[SheungWan]

Just now, MJP said:

 

Works for you.

 

We're far better behaved in Zone 1.

[MJP]

Just now, SheungWan said:

 

We're far better behaved in Zone 1.

 

[dick dasterdly]

23 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Take that up with the Guardian and BBC, they reported it.

 

Some more reading for you from Bloomberg, reported today.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/deutsche-bank-thinks-draghi-s-gone-over-to-the-dark-side

 

When you are in a world of sh!t, start lobbing smoke grenades.

 

And apparently 

 

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/german-economists-urge-eu-to-shun-brexit-taboos-to-keep-u-k-in

 

The ever pragmatic Germans are beginning to see sense.

The last sentence is my belief too.  EU companies trading with the UK aren't looking to 'punish' the UK - they're only interested in their profits.

 

Whether the EU govt. is able to over-ride their companies' profits for their own political agenda is still in doubt.

[Khun Han]

16 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

The last sentence is my belief too.  EU companies trading with the UK aren't looking to 'punish' the UK - they're only interested in their profits.

 

Whether the EU govt. is able to over-ride their companies' profits for their own political agenda is still in doubt.

 

I doubt the EU will get the better of the bigger multinationals. That's not how the world works these days.

[dick dasterdly]

18 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

I doubt the EU will get the better of the bigger multinationals. That's not how the world works these days.

True, but I'm sure the bigger multinationals would prefer the UK to be in the EU.

[Khun Han]

43 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

True, but I'm sure the bigger multinationals would prefer the UK to be in the EU.

 

I agree. But they will not even entertain the idea of going down the 'make an example of the UK' route once brexit is fully underway. They will only want the best possible trading conditions for themselves.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

I agree. But they will not even entertain the idea of going down the 'make an example of the UK' route once brexit is fully underway. They will only want the best possible trading conditions for themselves.

 

I guess for some the Nissan example went in one ear and out the other if it contradicted their pre-formed narrative.

[chiang mai]

A new incentive emerges:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/rexit-uk-credit-rating-moodys-theresa-may-single-market-deal-talks-negotiations-1034-oh-and-a7393026.html

 

And before we go there yes, I do understand some posters may have issues (huge temptation to end the post here but shall continue regardless) with Moody's and their perceived bias. Regardless, Moody's has a job to do and any continuation of their earlier perceived bias reduces or eliminates their ability to function as a credit risk organization, ergo, the risk assessment is real.

 

On a lighter note, I just ate fish and chips in Bridlington, the first in 45 years and they were dire and I can only recommend Okhaju in CM as being far far tastier.

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

 

I guess for some the Nissan example went in one ear and out the other if it contradicted their pre-formed narrative.

 

Correct. All the multinationals will stay as long as they get assurances from the UK Government ... that they will be compensated in some way for any losses. I wonder if the final bill will exceed the fictional £350m per week?