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May ready for tough talks over Brexit


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1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

All those that were trembling, biting their lips and filling their nappies claiming £ - $ parity within a week of the Brexit vote.

 

I didn't see any prediction of that sort ... but I do recall someone predicting a soaring GBP by October ... I'll spare the seer the embarrassment of naming them! It's just one prediction of many that they'll get wrong.

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1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

You are beginning to sound more like a very grousey person every day :thumbsup:

 

I'm not happy about Brexit, I don't think it is in the UK's interests and I don't believe that we will do better outside ... but I'm not apocalyptic about it ... the UK will soldier on regardless.

 

Unlike your EU predictions ... as someone else commented on ... the Mad Max world that you believe we are soon to be living in ... a meltdown in the EU will not save the UK, we have no safe harbour from that, albeit unlikely, scenario.

 

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5 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

And every man and his dog has been told the same thing.

 

As there will be NO negotiations before A50 is invoked, there is no need to divulge any information, or discuss negotiation details.

 

This is not difficult to understand.

 

What it does not mean, contrary to what the non entity is saying:

 

 

Which is nothing more than a little feet stamping strop.

 

It is a need to know basis, and he obviously, at this stage, does not need to know.

 

So what was the point of the meeting?

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I think it's fairly obvious now

 

The deal will be an "interim" arrangement keeping us in the free market and customs union. We will lose the right to vote on EU laws but will have to comply with them under our own laws anyway. The one unclear issue is how much movement of people will be agreed. I expect an EU wide change allowing limitations. The interim arrangement will last for a thousand years. We can then get on with our lives as a United Kingdom with a happy Nissan ?

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14 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I think it's fairly obvious now

 

The deal will be an "interim" arrangement keeping us in the free market and customs union. We will lose the right to vote on EU laws but will have to comply with them under our own laws anyway. The one unclear issue is how much movement of people will be agreed. I expect an EU wide change allowing limitations. The interim arrangement will last for a thousand years. We can then get on with our lives as a United Kingdom with a happy Nissan ?

 

Doesn't sound too bad an arrangement, but I think we are going to end up out of the free market and customs union on WTO rules. Davis, Fox and Johnson couldn't negotiate their way out of a paper bag and have a desire to sever ties. May is a hostage to her media backers at the Daily Mail and The Sun ... Corbyn et al are closet Brexiters so they're will be no support from any of them. The public will support it up until the point it hurts them economically, but by that time the horse will have well and truly bolted. 

 

Will be interesting to watch. In politics you are popular one minute and hated the next ... May should force an election before the tide turns against her.

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Poor old Merkel. She just does not get it.

 

Quote

Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Germans against turning to economic isolationism, saying she’s “not happy” about the possible collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he’ll withdraw from the trade accord.

 

Issuing warning does not appear to be working. A new strategy is called for.

 

Quote

Many people these days are concerned about the stability of the order that we’ve grown so accustomed to,” Merkel said on Wednesday in her first major speech since saying Sunday she’ll run again in 2017. 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/merkel-warns-against-isolation-amid-angst-over-globalization

 

No Merkel. Many people are not concerned about the stability of  the order that we have grown used to. Many people are sticking 2 fingers up to the order that they have grown used and giving it a big FOT.

 

For the simple reason that the current order is not working for a great many people.

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It now seems that it getting squeaky bum time time for the head of the German Automotive Industry

 

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The head of the German car industry has added his voice to a growing chorus of demands from Europe for the UK government to urgently clarify its Brexit objectives.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/23/brexit-uncertainty-could-hit-investment-in-uk-warns-german-car-chief

 

Brexit negotiations will be between the UK and the EU and as the EU has stated on numerous occasions, there will be NO official negotiations until A50 is invoked, Theresa May and her Brexit team are absolutely correct in revealing nothing, to anyone, especially to anyone who is not part of the EU appointed negotiating team. Which is headed by Verhofstadt.

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5 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

It now seems that it getting squeaky bum time time for the head of the German Automotive Industry

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/23/brexit-uncertainty-could-hit-investment-in-uk-warns-german-car-chief

 

Brexit negotiations will be between the UK and the EU and as the EU has stated on numerous occasions, there will be NO official negotiations until A50 is invoked, Theresa May and her Brexit team are absolutely correct in revealing nothing, to anyone, especially to anyone who is not part of the EU appointed negotiating team. Which is headed by Verhofstadt.

 

They have nothing to reveal to anyone because there is nothing to reveal. They are still trying to work out what their position is ... no plan, just a steely eye focus on staying in power.

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Even S&P are getting with the programme

 

Quote

The ratings agency said there were signs of “renewed tremors” from the result of the UK’s EU referendum on 23 June while the election of Trump as US presidentshowed that political risk remained significant.

 

Quote

Brexit may have energised broader, populist trends already pulsating through Europe. Citizens of other EU member states have expressed interest in holding referendums of their own to exit the union. Increasing populist sentiment, especially after the results of the US elections, also points to a shifting political landscape in the world’s largest economies,” S&P said.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/23/brexit-donald-trump-chinese-banks-sp

 

It is becoming telling that even the Guardian are now publishing articles of this description.

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1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

A Brilliant, fully verified and backed up analysis. 

 

Outstanding effort.

 

Almost as good as your attempts at not listing the EU Countries that would  benefit / lose from the UK leaving the EU and your follow up non answer on the what crisis that the EU have ever dealt with by showing decisive leadership.

 

Keep up the good work 

 

I've learned that there is no point in answering any of your questions ... the only way to prove you wrong beyond any doubt is to wait for the outcomes that you predict fail to happen. That's why I'll keep tabs on these threads to see if you skulk off or own your inevitable failures. Just like your prediction that GBP would soar by October, but didn't. You're non-answer on a verifiable prediction was telling? I noticed that you very quickly changed the subject? Keep up the good work.

 

All you are offering is opinions based on an apocalyptic outlook for all things Europe. Your analysis and verifications are invariably just other opinions and predictions that you cherrypick from whatever news source you can find ... you can't verify a prediction, you can only wait to see if it happens or not. 

 

Time is not your friend, I just hope you hang around on here long enough and don't do a disappearing act when the EU fails to implode.

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, SgtRock said:

Poor old Merkel. She just does not get it.

 

 

Issuing warning does not appear to be working. A new strategy is called for.

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/merkel-warns-against-isolation-amid-angst-over-globalization

 

No Merkel. Many people are not concerned about the stability of  the order that we have grown used to. Many people are sticking 2 fingers up to the order that they have grown used and giving it a big FOT.

 

For the simple reason that the current order is not working for a great many people.

 

I'm alright Rock!

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1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

A Brilliant, fully verified and backed up analysis. 

 

Outstanding effort.

 

Almost as good as your attempts at not listing the EU Countries that would  benefit / lose from the UK leaving the EU and your follow up non answer on the what crisis that the EU have ever dealt with by showing decisive leadership.

 

Keep up the good work 

 

Everyone except you loses with Brexit.

 

TM is trying to do the "right thing" whilst keeping the numpties happy.

 

I would stay in and give the numpties a free six pack of beer in compensation!

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1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

Even S&P are getting with the programme

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/23/brexit-donald-trump-chinese-banks-sp

 

It is becoming telling that even the Guardian are now publishing articles of this description.

 

Let's hope your nihilistic outlook is defeated. At least Fillon looks a good bet for the French!

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On 11/19/2016 at 2:20 PM, SaintLouisBlues said:

I'd have thought May can't believe her luck. Not only are the Europhiles in Europe going to be completely distracted by the elections a number of countries will be holding over the next couple of years - France and Germany being just two of them - Greece still represents an economic problem and Italy is a basket case, but also they're all going to have to come to terms with the totally unexpected phenomenon of President Trump.

Well, one good thing is coming from Brexit. The Conservatives are somewhat relenting in their punishment of the working class.

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8 hours ago, Grouse said:

 

Let's hope your nihilistic outlook is defeated. At least Fillon looks a good bet for the French!

 

Clinton looked a good bet for the Americans.

 

How did that work out again ?

 

I do not have a nihilistic outlook. How could I possibly have a nihilistic outlook when I advocate that the UK should get out of the EU as it has the potential to do much better outside the EU. If you want to use big words, try understanding them first.

 

I have a realistic outlook.

 

Those little blue lines of text in all my posts are links to those that are supplying the constant supply of bad news regarding the EU, something that is severely lacking in certain posters posts.

 

How can that be I constantly ask myself ?

 

To apply the KISS it principle, it is because there is no good news emanating about the EU.

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1 hour ago, sandyf said:

One year ago today the EUR was worth 70.8 pence, just now it is worth 84.7 pence. (up 19.6%)

People can put any spin they want on short term movement.

 

The problem with Rock is that he falls into the trap of believing that if an economy is struggling, it will not only continue to struggle but will only get worse ... the same thinking that allowed people to buy Next plc at £9 in 2009, only to watch it multiply seven times that number just a few years later. Same issue with EU market ... best time to buy it is when it feels most uncomfortable to do so. All his "proofs" are just opinions, ... and the only verifiable prediction that he has made is GBP soaring in October ... how did that work out for ya?

 

He should change his name to Chicken Little. Let's hope he doesn't disappear when the results come in.

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12 hours ago, AlexRich said:

ust like your prediction that GBP would soar by October, but didn't. You're non-answer on a verifiable prediction was telling? I noticed that you very quickly changed the subject? Keep up the good work.

 

Your hilarious nonsense gets better every day.

 

My prediction failed for  one reason, and one reason only. 

 

I did not see, for whatever reason, the ECB had quietly extended its QE through to April and increased it to the tune of EUR 80 Billion a month. I have posted this at least 3 times. So there was no non-answer on my part. Neither did I quickly change the subject. I held my hands up and admitted it, giving the reason.

 

So in your brilliant opinion, How well is that EUR 1.9 Trillion in QE doing ? Going well is it ?

 

Whilst you grapple for an answer on that one. I am still waiting to be tickled pink by your avoidance and non-answers on these babies:

 

Post 1426

 

Quote

This will be interesting.

 

What Countries will it be a blow to and what Countries will it be an opportunity for ?

 

Post 1429

 

Quote

Can you give me an example of when the EU has ever acted decisively when faced with a crisis ?

 

I am struggling to understand how you can be assured in your assumptions, but 3 days later you still cannot come up with answer.

 

Do not level false accusations at me, when it is you that is actually guilty of the crime.

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31 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

All his "proofs" are just opinions, ... and the only verifiable prediction that he has made is GBP soaring in October ... how did that work out for ya?

 

My proofs ? They are not actually mine, they all come from different, independent verifiable sources.

 

That is what the blue lines of text are.

 

But I am glad that you brought up proofs and opinions.

 

That is where your biggest mistake lies.

 

What I have posted over the course of this week has been backed up by no fewer than 21 independent links. That is the blue lines of text :thumbsup::thumbsup:

 

What you and your acolytes have posted ( with the exception of sandyf ) contains zero, nada, zilchio in supporting, independent, verifiable sources. Just so that there is no mistake, that is NO blue lines of supporting text.

 

Here is another couple of headaches for the EU.

 

Quote

This time around Mr Hofer’s odds of becoming the next Austrian President are 4/9, according to bookmaker Paddy Power as of November 23. 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/735682/Austrian-presidential-election-2016-who-win-Norbert-Hofer-latest-polls-odds-predictions

 

I make no apologies for using the express. It is also in the FT if you are a subscriber and can read it.

 

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The Netherlands will hold a general election in March and some opinion polls suggest Mr Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) is a close second behind Prime Minister Mark Rutte's liberal VVD, or even slightly ahead.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38083903

 

Wilders makes some interesting remarks in the article.

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1 hour ago, cumgranosalum said:

go -on then....what is the GOOD news about Brexit?

 

Did not take long for the round robin to begin :whistling::whistling:

 

Just to humour you.

 

Have a read and decide for yourself if it is worth trying to put in as much distance as possible, or still remain attached at the hip.

 

Just from the last 4 days

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-20/currency-vigilantes-ready-to-strike-again-as-italian-vote-looms
https://www.ft.com/world/europe
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/brexit-banks-told-to-relax-ecb-won-t-give-first-mover-advantage
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-11-21/dark-days-for-the-euro-await-in-trump-s-1-trillion-plan
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/059b4400-3fbb-40f9-805d-2ff621a56a61
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-20/currency-vigilantes-ready-to-strike-again-as-italian-vote-looms
https://www.ft.com/content/2c5565fa-b0da-11e6-9c37-5787335499a0
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/crunch-time-for-monte-paschi-and-italy-as-share-sale-looms
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/23/brexit-donald-trump-chinese-banks-sp
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/735682/Austrian-presidential-election-2016-who-win-Norbert-Hofer-latest-polls-odds-predictions
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38083903
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-23/bond-market-is-right-to-worry-about-italian-vote

 

Sometimes, a tactical withdrawal to regroup resources is the best option :thumbsup::thumbsup:

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Finally the ECB speaks out.

 

Quote

The European Central Bank warned that the risk of an abrupt global market correction on the back of rising political uncertainty has intensified, posing a threat to banks, stability and economic growth.

 

Quote

More volatility in the near future is likely and the potential for an abrupt reversal remains significant,”

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-24/ecb-warns-of-market-correction-as-political-instability-spreads

 

As I have been saying despite the white noise coming from the chuckle brother Brigade, it is looming fast.

 

04 December and slightly later when the Fed raises interest rates is just the start.

 

On 11/24/2016 at 3:35 PM, cumgranosalum said:

all this is is a load of doomsday stuff that fits your miserable agenda

 

Of course it is. I do not have an agenda, but it is simply amazing that the ECB is part of that imaginary agenda that you think I have.

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5 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

Your hilarious nonsense gets better every day.

 

My prediction failed for  one reason, and one reason only. 

 

I did not see, for whatever reason, the ECB had quietly extended its QE through to April and increased it to the tune of EUR 80 Billion a month. I have posted this at least 3 times. So there was no non-answer on my part. Neither did I quickly change the subject. I held my hands up and admitted it, giving the reason.

 

So in your brilliant opinion, How well is that EUR 1.9 Trillion in QE doing ? Going well is it ?

 

Whilst you grapple for an answer on that one. I am still waiting to be tickled pink by your avoidance and non-answers on these babies:

 

Post 1426

 

 

Post 1429

 

 

I am struggling to understand how you can be assured in your assumptions, but 3 days later you still cannot come up with answer.

 

Do not level false accusations at me, when it is you that is actually guilty of the crime.

 

Crime? 

 

You did not forsee that the ECB would extend its QE? But you did your analysis and you offered up research to back up your prediction? I thought that was all you had to do to "prove" your case? It appears not. Whilst I don't wish to speed my life away I do so much look forward to witnessing your deluded predictions fall one after the other as time passes and the results come in. 

 

So it appears that your analysis and research got it wrong ... because you are only focused on the narrow range of possibilities that back up your apocalyptic predictions for the EU. It never seems to cross your mind that there are other possibilities that would allow this to be avoided.

 

And as much as I see little point in answering your questions, you might recall a number of commentators suggesting that there might be more consensus amongst EU countries on the direction they take with the UK out of the EU? I don't believe that Germany are glad to see the back of us, but I do think that France are happy to see us go. They are already trying to woo City financial institutions to Paris and I don't doubt that some will go there eventually. So for some countries the UK exit presents an opportunity to attract european headquarters to their country ... by poaching them from the UK. And as for the EU taking action, take a look at Russian sanctions and sanctions on Iran ... that was a coordinated response. The stance they are currently taking with the UK in terms of not pre-negotiating Brexit is another example. And the fact that 27 countries have an agreement on a whole range of trade and regulations says a lot about their ability to coordinate and work together. There have been no wars between any EU country since its establishment, an achievement given our recent history. The idea that it is a dysfunctional mess heading for meltdown is just your wishful thinking. 

 

My central point is simply this - the EU have the resources and the capability to get through whatever difficulties they are facing ... and politicians will change stance and adapt when they believe their stated positions aren't working. There are many possible outcomes, as your ECB faux pas illustrates, and you only seems to focus on the apocalyptic outcomes, like some loony with a sandwich board.

 

Please stick around ... as each prediction falls on its ass, I want to hear your excuses.

 

That the ECB might take action on QE was not within your range of possibilities? You need to widen your range.

 

Sgt Rock ... the gift that keeps on giving!

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5 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

My proofs ? They are not actually mine, they all come from different, independent verifiable sources.

 

That is what the blue lines of text are.

 

But I am glad that you brought up proofs and opinions.

 

That is where your biggest mistake lies.

 

What I have posted over the course of this week has been backed up by no fewer than 21 independent links. That is the blue lines of text :thumbsup::thumbsup:

 

What you and your acolytes have posted ( with the exception of sandyf ) contains zero, nada, zilchio in supporting, independent, verifiable sources. Just so that there is no mistake, that is NO blue lines of supporting text.

 

Here is another couple of headaches for the EU.

 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/735682/Austrian-presidential-election-2016-who-win-Norbert-Hofer-latest-polls-odds-predictions

 

I make no apologies for using the express. It is also in the FT if you are a subscriber and can read it.

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38083903

 

Wilders makes some interesting remarks in the article.

 

You have no 'proofs' ... just a cherrypicked serious of articles that change daily. If we went through the news flow in the 1970s and 1980s we'd find many 'nuclear war' articles ... that never happened. Articles a few years ago that Greece would exit the EU, never happened. You can find anything you want ... the next financial meltdown in 2009,10,11,12,13,14, etc ... never happened. 

 

You seem to believe that if you can show an article then that is 'proof', so you spend your waking day collecting cherrypicked newsfeed to bolster your lame predictions. 

 

The only answer that anyone can give you is after the fact. You predicted A. A did not happen, despite your research, analysis and media 'proofs'. 

 

So I await the outcomes ... and in the meantime will offer my views, but as I have a life outside TV I will not be providing quotes, articles or anything else unless they are at hand. Only outcomes matter, not predictions. As your GBP soaring in October failure proved.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

And as for the EU taking action, take a look at Russian sanctions and sanctions on Iran ... that was a coordinated response.

 

Hiding behind sanctions is taking decisive actions ? Each to their own.

 

Let me remind you about the only major crisis the EU has faced, The Balkans. A brilliant example of decisive action. So good in fact, they had to call in the NATO and the UN.

 

Do a bit of research on what the initial causes of the breakup of Yugoslavia was, to help you out, it was one of the things that is currently happening in the EU, think Slovenia.

 

Nice to see you are conflating individual Countries as a whole, rather than the EU as a whole. As has been said repeatedly, there are not too many people that have any issues with Individual Countries within the EU, the problem is the EU and its institutions.

 

39 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

My central point is simply this - the EU have the resources and the capability to get through whatever difficulties they are facing

 

The EU has the resources ? What are you smoking ? The EU has very little in the way of resources. Individual Countries within the EU have the resources, not the EU.

 

42 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

And the fact that 27 countries have an agreement on a whole range of trade and regulations says a lot about their ability to coordinate and work together. There have been no wars between any EU country since its establishment, an achievement given our recent history.

 

Is that what you really think. At least 16 Countries have had those foisted on them in return for ( Bribes ) financial incentives.

 

No wars ? That is down to NATO, not the EU.

 

32 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

the next financial meltdown in 2009,10,11,12,13,14, etc ... never happened. 

 

It never happened because very few Countries have risen above the 2008 crash.

 

And I fail to see how a direct warning from the ECB

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-24/ecb-warns-of-market-correction-as-political-instability-spreads

 

Can be construed as me cherry picking anything.

 

Nice attempt, but another epic fail.

 

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13 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

Clinton looked a good bet for the Americans.

 

How did that work out again ?

 

I do not have a nihilistic outlook. How could I possibly have a nihilistic outlook when I advocate that the UK should get out of the EU as it has the potential to do much better outside the EU. If you want to use big words, try understanding them first.

 

I have a realistic outlook.

 

Those little blue lines of text in all my posts are links to those that are supplying the constant supply of bad news regarding the EU, something that is severely lacking in certain posters posts.

 

How can that be I constantly ask myself ?

 

To apply the KISS it principle, it is because there is no good news emanating about the EU.

 

Your constant negativity about the EU is an example of political nihilism. I was not accusing you of existential nihilism.

 

I really do fail to understand your desire to bring everything down including my mood!

 

Fillon does indeed look promising. Why bring the defeat of HRC into the discussion

 

What is your overall stance?

 

Why not explain where you are coming from? Literally?

 

I am genuinely concerned that you are some kind of fifth columnist. You seem to want to bring down many things that we (or at least I) hold dear ?

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13 hours ago, SgtRock said:

:cheesy::cheesy:

 

For all the highly intelligent remainers.

 

How is the EUR doing ? Shed another 1% yesterday. All going great in Zombieland :whistling::whistling:

 

It seems that the Swiss are even putting the boot in now.

 

 

 

Sure, the UK has problems.

 

Small potatoes compared to the problems that EU faces.

 

As a highly intelligent remainer, may I point out that EUR/USD is roughly the same as 1 year ago? It has declined by 15% over 10 years though.

 

Now cable has collapsed 20% from last year and 35% over 10 years

 

Taking the two pairs, it looks to me that USD has probably risen 15% but GBP has fallen 20%

 

I'm just an engineer but maybe someone with specialist knowledge could help us here? ?

 

 

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